TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Humans Win)

[Tasselfoot]

Fish: Really? I was under the impression that if I bet on someone and was correct, I had to use it that night... good. But, to answer other questions, no I do not have a correct bet yet. I will let people know if I do get one though.

Afro: Remember last game? Fish used his 2nd vigi to kill the loser of the KiB... which was a NO LOSE situation. Should he have not killed anyone, there would have been 4 people going to the last day and that would have ended the game, for better or worse. Instead, he used his kill.... had he killed a human and the game went on, it would have been 3 people, and it still would have ended that day. Either case, the game would have ended the same day... but this way, he eliminated 1/3 of his suspect pool. We are now in the same situation.

So, should I survive until we are down to 6 or 4 players, I will use the vigi to kill off the person I am most concerned about to leave less to chance. THAT is what I mean by a free kill. And, lets hope I'm smart enough to get 1 bet correct by then.

PS - as per my psychic friend, we have 2 wolves left.

[Afrobean]

Tass: I didn't play last game, so I don't remember it as well as I would otherwise. However, I do understand what you're saying now.

[evilbutterfly]

So wait, the PM was TPS trying to save his ass? This seems too...I dunno. Either Tass is pulling a REALLY HUGE FAST ONE or we're doing really well. I always assume that the humans should be and are lost/confused in the first few days. Something just doesn't seem right....

PS: Afro stole my Omega vote from yesterday. D=<

[JurseyRider734]

The one thing that was weird about last nights kill was that it was so obvious. As in, Tass maybe got the guardian to guard him. Knowing that he would be guarded, he wolfed himself knowing (or hoping) he'd be saved. This would grant instant humanity.

Otherwise, if Tass really is a blue, gj guardian.

[Afrobean]

Ha! Tass was already assumed as 100% human anyway when no one came out as a second bookie. His being saved proofs nothing more.

[talisman]

So tps was a wolf then, according to tass. Not sure if that changes my feelings on omega or not. chardish and guido I'm not suspicious of because tps explicitly told me that those were the two he was most suspicious of on day one. More detailed analysis forthcoming...

btw fish if that's how you were planning on playing it then why in your signup speech do you have "Bookie - This person bets on one person per night or day; if the person he bets on for the night is wolfed, or if the person he bets on for the day is lynched, he gets an anonymous vigi the next night." Although it's hella more useful if it doesn't go away.

[talisman]

ok so eb and qreepy and ap are pretty much ruled out as wolves based on when/how they voted. Same goes for chardish, obviously. Blah could also be ruled out, but that's not guaranteed. Guido could go either way but I'm willing to bet based on the fact that tps told me he thought guido was suspicious day one that guido isn't a wolf. Tass isn't a wolf, I'm not, I'm thinking afro isn't either. In fact if I had to call it right now I'd say it's omega and mead.

I intend to repeat my vote on omega later, but I don't want to create too much early momentum. So yeah, consider this a pledge vote for omega.

this is all based on tass being human, which if he isn't, well, this game is going to be supremely difficult.

[Tasselfoot]

Afro put it well.... I already was seen as 100% human before I was guarded, but on the shot that I am fake, clearly I knew I was being guarded, so getting saved proves nothing extra. That is obvious. So, in that sense, it is illogical to attack myself. Add to the fact that there is now a free vigi kill (or an extra day, should the guardian get a 2nd save), and I'd have to be more retarded than TPS to do it.

And, as far as the psychic, I'm only passing along info. Only one person has come to me as the psychic, so I'm taking their word.

[Tasselfoot]

Talisman... would you mind posting more info into reasons behind each person? Thanks.

[talisman]

well eb voted tps first before (I think) tps even posted the "myself" convo, qreepy voted second and pressed hard, chardish was third and found the fatal error, I don't see a wolf doing that to a fellow wolf. ap was next, I think, and at a time when he could have gone for a safety and not bury his wolf partner in the hole he voted for tps (but ap's tricky, this one isn't as certain). now for the guido/chardish being tps' suspects lemme go see if I can dig up that convo. I sent it to kilga so it should be in my outbox... k found it:

Tps7910 (3:59:41 PM): Do you have time to talk TWG?

Auto response from stressreliefball (3:59:41 PM): trying to get stuff done

stressreliefball (4:12:31 PM): oh sorry
stressreliefball (4:12:32 PM): yeah
Tps7910 (4:12:42 PM): Heh, insta anyways.
Tps7910 (4:12:49 PM): I was just wondering your suspicions.
Tps7910 (4:12:56 PM): and reasoning to holding out at the time.
stressreliefball (4:13:03 PM): well hans numero uno obviously
stressreliefball (4:13:18 PM): holding out was just to make sure we didn't want to get the bookie a vigi anyway
stressreliefball (4:13:57 PM): but people didn't seem to be receptive to that idea I guess
Tps7910 (4:14:02 PM): Ok.
stressreliefball (4:14:21 PM): other suspicions of mine right now are largely based on thin air and my gut
Tps7910 (4:14:31 PM): Care to share, I listen to gut.
stressreliefball (4:14:47 PM): yeah no problem as long as there' some reciprocation ^_^
stressreliefball (4:14:52 PM): but yeah
stressreliefball (4:14:58 PM): I wonder about afrobean a little
Tps7910 (4:15:18 PM): Gut?
stressreliefball (4:15:29 PM): yeah plus some behavior things that add up in the right light
Tps7910 (4:15:38 PM): Lets watch out for that then.
stressreliefball (4:15:40 PM): nothing major, mainly how/what/when he talked in the chat
Tps7910 (4:15:53 PM): I put a lot of faith in my gut people.
Tps7910 (4:15:56 PM): Usually.
stressreliefball (4:16:04 PM): worked well for you last game
stressreliefball (4:16:06 PM): ...
Tps7910 (4:16:10 PM): I'll wait untill day 2 to announce them, as I am still unsure.
Tps7910 (4:16:13 PM): Haha.
Tps7910 (4:16:19 PM): Well, I did them before the game started.
Tps7910 (4:16:26 PM): As I usually don't.
stressreliefball (4:16:32 PM): but yeah, there are less people that I'm suspicious of than there are people I'm not suspicious of
stressreliefball (4:16:38 PM): if that makes sense
Tps7910 (4:17:11 PM): It doesn't.
stressreliefball (4:17:17 PM): for example, you, tass, ap, guido, kilga (obviously), to some extent mead, to some extent jurs, to a small extent omega seem human to me
Tps7910 (4:17:46 PM): Now, why AP myself Guido and and Tass?
stressreliefball (4:17:56 PM): straight behavior
Tps7910 (4:18:17 PM): Ok.
Tps7910 (4:18:20 PM): What about LD?
Tps7910 (4:18:23 PM): No posts.
stressreliefball (4:18:27 PM): I noticed that
Tps7910 (4:18:29 PM): Hasn't really talked.
stressreliefball (4:18:33 PM): could go either way really
Tps7910 (4:18:36 PM): Says it's his job
stressreliefball (4:18:56 PM): he has built up a reputation for not caring when green
stressreliefball (4:19:02 PM): this could be an extension of that
stressreliefball (4:19:08 PM): or he could be cashing in on it as a red
Tps7910 (4:19:09 PM): Indeed.
stressreliefball (4:19:25 PM): so I can't passs judgment on him
stressreliefball (4:19:29 PM): blah is the same way
stressreliefball (4:19:43 PM): ever since he became a recluse player I can't read him correctly
Tps7910 (4:20:10 PM): Yea, he kinda faded away.
Tps7910 (4:20:35 PM): Chardish hasn't played in a while, so it may be m, eagierness, or his norm
stressreliefball (4:20:50 PM): well he did propose the bookie plan first
stressreliefball (4:20:56 PM): which is human in my book
stressreliefball (4:20:58 PM): however
stressreliefball (4:21:21 PM): there's a possibility that he, as a wolf, thinks that the bookie will be dead by day two and it will be successful to fake it
Tps7910 (4:21:35 PM): Or.
Tps7910 (4:21:40 PM): He knew tor was the bookie.
Tps7910 (4:21:57 PM): But, I doubt he would fake morph
Tps7910 (4:22:02 PM): someone would come out
stressreliefball (4:22:12 PM): no fake bookie, not fake morph
stressreliefball (4:22:22 PM): if the real bookie is dead and you know it, that's who you fake
stressreliefball (4:22:35 PM): the morph power is gone now it would be retarded to fake it
Tps7910 (4:22:43 PM): I meant
Tps7910 (4:22:47 PM): If he is a wolf
Tps7910 (4:22:53 PM): he wouldn't have claimed to be the morph
stressreliefball (4:23:21 PM): well yeah ok I don't think any wolf would have because no wolf did...
Tps7910 (4:23:24 PM): The pyschic report will pretty much gurantee his humaninty
stressreliefball (4:23:34 PM): wait I thought we were talking about chardish
stressreliefball (4:23:38 PM): when did this become guido
stressreliefball (4:23:39 PM): er
stressreliefball (4:23:40 PM): kilga
Tps7910 (4:24:06 PM): Whoa.
Tps7910 (4:24:11 PM): I really don't know.
stressreliefball (4:24:14 PM): haha
Tps7910 (4:24:22 PM): I just re-read the convo
Tps7910 (4:24:23 PM): and went
Tps7910 (4:24:24 PM): wtf
Tps7910 (4:24:32 PM): Brain lapse, sorry.
stressreliefball (4:24:37 PM): it's coo
Tps7910 (4:24:51 PM): Only wolves have Brain Lapses.
stressreliefball (4:25:15 PM): right
Tps7910 (4:25:32 PM): Uh oh.
Tps7910 (4:25:33 PM): Oh.
Tps7910 (4:25:34 PM): Crap.
Tps7910 (4:25:56 PM): Decided to stay with Talisman i assume?
stressreliefball (4:26:05 PM): for my name?
stressreliefball (4:26:06 PM): yeah
stressreliefball (4:26:18 PM): the people voted on it and banditcom made fun of me
Tps7910 (4:26:20 PM): Jipkin sounded like a tellitubbue.
Tps7910 (4:26:32 PM): tellytubby*
stressreliefball (4:27:37 PM): three other wolves out there basically
stressreliefball (4:27:42 PM): it seems like they should be more obvious
Tps7910 (4:28:04 PM): Why?
Tps7910 (4:28:21 PM): No one gave me any weird vibes regarding Hans.
stressreliefball (4:28:24 PM): well at least one of them should stick out or something
stressreliefball (4:28:31 PM): not necessarily regarding hans
stressreliefball (4:28:43 PM): afro is the only vibe I've really gotten
stressreliefball (4:29:14 PM): and my vibes unlike others' tend to be notoriously wrong
stressreliefball (4:29:28 PM): oh btw
stressreliefball (4:29:35 PM): what are your suspicious Smile
stressreliefball (4:29:43 PM): er suspicions
Tps7910 (4:30:59 PM): So far.
Tps7910 (4:31:02 PM): Just my gut.
Tps7910 (4:31:10 PM): I really didn't get anything out of day1.
Tps7910 (4:31:33 PM): I'm thinking Guido Chardish were my top 2 gut (yea, decided to say them now)
Tps7910 (4:31:43 PM): Contradicting yours.
stressreliefball (4:31:53 PM): sort of
Tps7910 (4:31:53 PM): Not chardish anymore
stressreliefball (4:32:10 PM): I read guido as human just because he seems pretty helpful and vocal
stressreliefball (4:32:12 PM): but that's it
Tps7910 (4:32:20 PM): So, probably just Guido at this point,maybe LD, maybe Omega.
Tps7910 (4:32:29 PM): Though Omega is acting diff form his wolf self
Tps7910 (4:32:36 PM): I'll bbl, gott eat,
Tps7910 (4:32:39 PM): ;ater.
stressreliefball (4:32:42 PM): k

and uh, let's see what else did I mention... well omega I still find extremely suspicious based on his tps vote. and mead just strikes me weird. But I don't know about blah ld nforcer or jurs although I have some ideas and scenarios that fit for each.

If there's any particular part you want me to go into more detail about let me know.

[talisman]

btw that convo was night two... my suspicious of afro have largely faded since then.

edit: I seem to misspell suspicion as suspicious alot. stupid lysdexia.

edit2: I know alot of you kids have convos with tps as he tends to contact everyone, or at least he gave me that impression this game. Perhaps we could all post them, or send them to tass or something? Probably alot of info in there.

[FishFishRevolution]

btw fish if that's how you were planning on playing it then why in your signup speech do you have "Bookie - This person bets on one person per night or day; if the person he bets on for the night is wolfed, or if the person he bets on for the day is lynched, he gets an anonymous vigi the next night." Although it's hella more useful if it doesn't go away.

Sorry for being vague, I meant that's when you're first able to use it. It's significantly more powerful for humans if you can save it, and I thought I used it that way to counter something else for the wolves at some point when I was balancing things out. So yes, my ruling is you can save it. =D

[Tasselfoot]

In that Talisman convo, the part at the end regarding Omega does stand out... throwing it on at the end, then countering it exatly in the next line.

At the same time, the last time Omega was a wolf, I didn't see it. It was Qreepy and some others who really pushed it (and were correct), so I'm in the same boat again this time around... I can see some iffies in his statements, combine that with what TPS said in the Talisman convo... I can understand the votes. Perhaps Qreepy, Afro, or eb would be willing to quote some of Omega's posts and give me some details of why he is the 3rd wolf? I'm being lazy this game, making others do the grunt work.

[talisman]

ps guys I'm serious about posting and/or pooling our resources regarding any convo you might have had with tps. The one I posted is the only one we had, btw.

[Tasselfoot]

I've posted my convos with TPS... most of them.