TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Humans Win)

[Afrobean]

People have been throwing my name around a few times. Anyone feel like being a nice guy and clearly identifying anything wolfy I've done?

PS ap stop being an ass. It's one thing to swear casually, but it's another to flame another user with such a hurtful term.

Also note that I'm not defending jurs just because she's jurs. I'm defending her, because a gentleman should NEVER EVER refer to a female using any term like that.

PPS

Oh and while we're at it, let's set up the groundwork on how we need to be thinking:

Claims when presenting evidence:
Evidence must be as falsifiable as possible. To determine this the presented evidence must in fact tend towards a person being a human or a wolf. This means that claims that can be argued 'either way' are not legitimate and must have some precedental or statistical evidence to back them up.

Anything that has been psychologically tested and disproven is not certifiable as evidence. This means that 'raw' intuition. Such as 'I really think x is a wolf' pregame or claims that have no confounding variables that could modify them can not be used as evidence.

While I agree with your two sided skewed evidence rant, it ain't gonna happen. Both greens and reds make use of the ability to skew evidence. It's up to those who read the thread to decide if the information (whether skewed heavily, lightly, or not at all) is worth lynching the said player over.

Also, there will always be those individuals with good enough intuition (or as you put it "luck") that it far outweighs the use of concrete evidence. There will always be those who put enough stock in their abilities to simply read people that they will vote for others with no solid evidence.

I mean, just think if we only lynched people when there was solid evidence against them. It'd be stupid... there's usually no more than a few cases of concrete evidence against wolves in any given game. If we were to only lynch those with concrete evidence, almost every game would end in wolf victory. We have to put faith in our ability to read people with no real evidence. Without it, we'd never win.

[talisman]

afro I made a big post a while back detailing some musings on the you=wolf scenario.

[Omeganitros]

Omega: Lots of iffiness earlier on with the role-playing and dodgy answers to direct questions. More wolfy than most.

Would you feel better about it if I answered questions directly?

[Afrobean]

Ok, so in talking with Talisman I discovered that the same evidence I've been using against Omega can go both ways. Logically, a wolf would be more careful than to make a mistake like that. At the same rate, though, a human shouldn't vote using such logic as "well he's going to die anyway, so i'll vote for him even though I think he's human."

So, take this as an honorary vote null (LOL).

At least until Omega does something else wolfy. But since he's been called on something already he'll be extra careful to not do such a thing whether he be red, green, blue, purple, or even brown.

Acutally, I think I'll make one of those awesome lists of people and what I think of them.

[aperson]

Also, there will always be those individuals with good enough intuition (or as you put it "luck") that it far outweighs the use of concrete evidence. There will always be those who put enough stock in their abilities to simply read people that they will vote for others with no solid evidence.

I mean, just think if we only lynched people when there was solid evidence against them. It'd be stupid... there's usually no more than a few cases of concrete evidence against wolves in any given game. If we were to only lynch those with concrete evidence, almost every game would end in wolf victory. We have to put faith in our ability to read people with no real evidence. Without it, we'd never win.

On the intuition: I mean blind intuition, not after we've played intuition. By blind intuition I mean pre-game when there are no 3rd variables that can influence the roles besides the RNG. Intuitions and 'something feeling off' about a player after the day has started can be usual, though marginally.

I'm also not shooting for rock solid evidence, I'm shooting for evidence that is stronger than the 50/50 skewing that we have going here. Try getting statistical plots of behavioral traits or something a bit more powerful to go by. Evilbutterfly's 'anyways' graph was almost useful, except he went by raw number count instead of % of appearance in posts, at least he was on the right track.

[aperson]

To help everyone out, first I am compiling evidence. I will share all the evidence I have with everyone as I gather it, afterwards I will start analyzing the evidence and hopefully find some hairy cunts... and by hairy cunts I mean wolves.

http://zastari.acunett.com/TWG.xls

Particular points of interest are the timing and location of votes on Omeganitros and nforcer on day three.

Also, I left nforcer colored a mix because it is possible, though unlikely, that nforcer was a wolf and TPS wasn't.

Edit: Nevermind, TPS is definitely the wolf. nforcer is green.

[mead1]

Ok, well I'm gonna be at school at days end, so I'm going to vote Afro. I looked back through the last few pages of the thread and his rollover vote is the only thing that really sticks out to me.

[Afrobean]

mead1 - not as active as others. Hard to read. Could easily go both ways.

Chardish - Could be. I see no real evidence on him, but if he was playing well as a wolf, there would be no real evidence.

aperson - ass. Most likely not a wolf though.*

Omeganitros - Before I was nearly 100% he was a wolf. Now I'm more around 60%. The evidence that I was so sure proved him to be wolf just as easily made him seem human. And if he's human, he's doing a terrible job of helping the human cause by using shoddy logic and blatant bandwagonning.

blahblah18 - I have no idea. He needs to post more.

talisman - Seems human to me. Could be playing the "I'm being very helpful and active" card though (it works well. see the game a few back when I was a wolf). I am most definitely leaning towards human, though... about 90%, I'd say.

lightdarkness - Can EASILY go both ways. Like others have said before he could just be cashing in on the "if I'm green I don't care about the game" thing. I suppose we're giving him the benefit of the doubt, though.

evilbutterfly - Obviously a wolf. Just kidding. He doesn't seem especially suspicious in the thread, but I haven't had a chance to talk over AIM about TWG with him much. Probably is human, but I'm basing this entirely on his posts and I read him better when I talk with him on AIM (I've read him as blue successfully those two times I was a wolf and he was blue. I also figured he was red one time based on how he was over AIM and I ended up being right)

JurseyRider734 - Like eb said, the exploding is really strange. I'm more inclined to believe you're human though, since I wouldn't think of you as the type to put yourself in the spot like that if you're a wolf.

Afrobean - I don't think so.

GuidoHunter - People are suspicious of him, right? I must've missed why. It seems like people are just hating on people who defended Tps. This is pretty stupid since I know I kind of defended Tps also, yet little has been said of it, and I'm sure others also defended Tps. Pretty poor logic in my opinion.

Tasselfoot - Obviously the master wolf playing us all for fools.

PS I copied eb's list and kept parts I agree'd with lolz.

*(19:11:08) talisman: you think ap is human>
(19:11:16) talisman: ?*
19:11
(19:11:51) Afrobean: he doesn't seem like a wolf to me
(19:12:00) Afrobean: it seems like people are just saying "well ap is still alive"
(19:12:04) Afrobean: "so he must not be human"
(19:12:55) talisman: I don't know, I found his inactivity somewhat condemning
(19:13:05) talisman: it's not like he didn't make sure to get a post in every now and then
(19:13:14) talisman: it's just that they had no thought to them
(19:13:25) Afrobean: he probably doesn't care about the game
(19:13:27) Afrobean: like LD
(19:13:42) talisman: perhaps but he did at first...
(19:14:01) Afrobean: so you're saying you think ap might be faking innactivity to make it seem lioke he doesn't care?
(19:14:11) Afrobean: you're using the skewed logic that ap complained about man
(19:14:27) talisman: well like I said
(19:14:29) talisman: and you as well
(19:14:41) talisman: it comes down to "do they fit the scenario?"
(19:14:42) Afrobean: I know, but you're skewing evidence to say he's a wolf
(19:14:51) Afrobean: when the same evidence can be used to say he's human
(19:15:10) Afrobean: yea, ap would definitely not care about a game if he's a green outside an alliance
(19:15:29) Afrobean: honestly, I don't blame him
(19:15:36) Afrobean: this game is a lot more fun when you're in on stuff
(19:15:42) Afrobean: but I still try at least
(19:15:57) talisman: I mean, I play hard no matter what
(19:16:05) talisman: I've never been in an alliance yet
(19:16:10) Afrobean: really?
(19:16:13) talisman: nope
(19:16:13) Afrobean: never been blue?
(19:16:15) talisman: nope
(19:16:23) Afrobean: well it's more fun if you're red, right?
19:16
(19:16:33) Afrobean: if ap were red, logically, he'd be more active
(19:16:55) talisman: or logically he'd want to lower his profile because his team was down two
(19:17:08) Afrobean: well he was never that active this game, was he?
(19:17:17) Afrobean: he was in like the beginning of day1
(19:17:22) Afrobean: then faded out
(19:17:27) talisman: day one he was active both in the chat and in the thread
(19:17:34) Afrobean: that's exactly what I'd do if I was green and I lost interest
(19:17:56) Afrobean: think about it though
(19:17:59) Afrobean: if he was red
(19:18:12) Afrobean: he'd realize that he shouldn't do anything to draw attention to himself
(19:18:22) Afrobean: being REALLY innactive is exactly that
(19:18:23) talisman: and thus lay low...
(19:18:27) Afrobean: something that draws attention to him
(19:18:31) talisman: but he hasn't been blah or ld
(19:18:37) talisman: he's made posts
(19:18:41) talisman: just small ones
(19:18:45) Afrobean: he's not been helpful though
(19:18:54) Afrobean: except he did contribute on day 1
(19:19:21) talisman: well I can agree that the evidence can go both ways
(19:19:25) talisman: the problem is
(19:19:30) talisman: is there a better candidate?

The problem is that at this point, I honestly can't say yes or no. I don't agree with lynching ap, but at the same time, I can't come up with anyone that should be lynched in his place.

[Omeganitros]

I think blahblah18 needs to speak up. Badly. Because I think of him as one of those "all-star" players, and he's hardly made a peep, as everyone has said. I'll be open to talk with people later when Yom Kippur services are over.

[Tasselfoot]

Afro, what is with the 2 gaps in the convo with parts of timestamps?

[talisman]

tass I think that's a glitch I'll hit up the full convo in a second.

[talisman]

This is Afrobean (6:01:33 PM): I know I read your post
This is Afrobean (6:01:38 PM): but I don't recall it right now
This is Afrobean (6:01:43 PM): can you tell me why I'm a wolf?
stressreliefball (6:01:56 PM): well basically I thought you weren't
stressreliefball (6:02:01 PM): because I thought wrongly
stressreliefball (6:02:06 PM): that on day two you accused tps early
This is Afrobean (6:02:10 PM): oh
stressreliefball (6:02:18 PM): but you didn't jump on him til later
This is Afrobean (6:02:19 PM): so because I didn't vote early on Tps, I'm a wolf?
stressreliefball (6:02:27 PM): no that's not it
This is Afrobean (6:02:35 PM): why not go back and read ap's rant about skewed evidence
stressreliefball (6:02:41 PM): dude that's not it at all
This is Afrobean (6:02:57 PM): all I recall hearing from you is that I "seemed off in the chat"
stressreliefball (6:02:57 PM): I was ruling you out earlier because I thought that was the case
This is Afrobean (6:03:07 PM): so do all you have is gut?
This is Afrobean (6:03:26 PM): and is that what anyone else who mentioned me is working off of as well?
stressreliefball (6:03:28 PM): well because I was wrong for my reasons about ruling you out
stressreliefball (6:03:33 PM): I had to rule you back in
This is Afrobean (6:03:35 PM): I understand
stressreliefball (6:03:37 PM): and test the scenario
This is Afrobean (6:03:46 PM): but I seem to be pretty high on people's lists
This is Afrobean (6:03:49 PM): without even doing anything
stressreliefball (6:03:58 PM): it could be the roll over votes
This is Afrobean (6:04:10 PM): and why would a wolf do that and not a human?
This is Afrobean (6:04:15 PM): humans would just as easily do that
This is Afrobean (6:04:26 PM): especially if they think strongly that the person they're voting for is a wolf
stressreliefball (6:04:35 PM): well it leaves the impression that you're trying to get away with voting without thinking of any new reasons or something
stressreliefball (6:04:41 PM): I agree with that in principle
This is Afrobean (6:04:46 PM): why should I have new reasons?
stressreliefball (6:04:52 PM): I'm just saying that's why people are probably thinking about you
This is Afrobean (6:04:53 PM): it's been spelled out
This is Afrobean (6:05:06 PM): well the only other thing I remember is Tass saying my convo with you
This is Afrobean (6:05:09 PM): that you posted
This is Afrobean (6:05:16 PM): reminded him of my first game as a wolf
This is Afrobean (6:05:28 PM): which is funny as hell since I've come very far from that game
stressreliefball (6:05:29 PM): I obviously can't speak to that as I'm not tass
This is Afrobean (6:05:31 PM): that was like 8
This is Afrobean (6:05:45 PM): ok I was just wondering if maybe you were thinking the same thing
stressreliefball (6:05:55 PM): I wasn't around then so I don't know
This is Afrobean (6:06:11 PM): I'll talk to tass sometime probably i guess
stressreliefball (6:06:29 PM): I mean, I'm still not 100% on omega either
This is Afrobean (6:06:49 PM): I understand
This is Afrobean (6:07:01 PM): he easily could have just been being very very stupid before
This is Afrobean (6:07:15 PM): I'd like to think that omega is smart enough to not use circular logic like that though
stressreliefball (6:07:22 PM): and I would expect more caution from him
stressreliefball (6:07:23 PM): yes
stressreliefball (6:07:33 PM): when voting and down a wolf like that
This is Afrobean (6:07:53 PM): I dunno
stressreliefball (6:07:53 PM): but that could be just me trying to put my playing style onto others
This is Afrobean (6:07:59 PM): oh hay I thought of something funny
This is Afrobean (6:08:14 PM): people were jumping on people for "asking fish to be a wolf"
This is Afrobean (6:08:27 PM): I did it too and I'm sure that even more peopel asked as well
stressreliefball (6:08:41 PM): fish wasn't choosing roles was he... ?
stressreliefball (6:08:49 PM): he did it randomly, right?
This is Afrobean (6:08:55 PM): I'd assume so
This is Afrobean (6:09:01 PM): since he didn't do as I asked
This is Afrobean (6:09:11 PM): and as far as I know, neither hans nor Tps asked
stressreliefball (6:09:47 PM): so who are the two wolves left then, in your opinion
This is Afrobean (6:10:11 PM): after omega, I don't have much of anything
This is Afrobean (6:10:25 PM): I could pull out a list of people playing and randomly pick someone who MIGHT be a wolf
This is Afrobean (6:10:32 PM): but I'll just leave it open for now
This is Afrobean (6:10:51 PM): side note: I'm pretty sure that those being looked at as wolf now in the thread are probably not wolf
stressreliefball (6:11:02 PM): you think ap is human>
stressreliefball (6:11:10 PM): ?*
This is Afrobean (6:11:45 PM): he doesn't seem like a wolf to me
This is Afrobean (6:11:55 PM): it seems like people are just saying "well ap is still alive"
This is Afrobean (6:11:58 PM): "so he must not be human"
stressreliefball (6:12:48 PM): I don't know, I found his inactivity somewhat condemning
stressreliefball (6:12:59 PM): it's not like he didn't make sure to get a post in every now and then
stressreliefball (6:13:08 PM): it's just that they had no thought to them
This is Afrobean (6:13:19 PM): he probably doesn't care about the game
This is Afrobean (6:13:21 PM): like LD
stressreliefball (6:13:36 PM): perhaps but he did at first...
This is Afrobean (6:13:55 PM): so you're saying you think ap might be faking innactivity to make it seem lioke he doesn't care?
This is Afrobean (6:14:05 PM): you're using the skewed logic that ap complained about man
stressreliefball (6:14:20 PM): well like I said
stressreliefball (6:14:23 PM): and you as well
stressreliefball (6:14:35 PM): it comes down to "do they fit the scenario?"
This is Afrobean (6:14:36 PM): I know, but you're skewing evidence to say he's a wolf
This is Afrobean (6:14:45 PM): when the same evidence can be used to say he's human
This is Afrobean (6:15:04 PM): yea, ap would definitely not care about a game if he's a green outside an alliance
This is Afrobean (6:15:23 PM): honestly, I don't blame him
This is Afrobean (6:15:30 PM): this game is a lot more fun when you're in on stuff
This is Afrobean (6:15:36 PM): but I still try at least
stressreliefball (6:15:51 PM): I mean, I play hard no matter what
stressreliefball (6:15:59 PM): I've never been in an alliance yet
This is Afrobean (6:16:04 PM): really?
stressreliefball (6:16:06 PM): nope
This is Afrobean (6:16:07 PM): never been blue?
stressreliefball (6:16:09 PM): nope
This is Afrobean (6:16:17 PM): well it's more fun if you're red, right?
This is Afrobean (6:16:27 PM): if ap were red, logically, he'd be more active
stressreliefball (6:16:48 PM): or logically he'd want to lower his profile because his team was down two
This is Afrobean (6:17:02 PM): well he was never that active this game, was he?
This is Afrobean (6:17:11 PM): he was in like the beginning of day1
This is Afrobean (6:17:16 PM): then faded out
stressreliefball (6:17:21 PM): day one he was active both in the chat and in the thread
This is Afrobean (6:17:28 PM): that's exactly what I'd do if I was green and I lost interest
This is Afrobean (6:17:50 PM): think about it though
This is Afrobean (6:17:54 PM): if he was red
This is Afrobean (6:18:06 PM): he'd realize that he shouldn't do anything to draw attention to himself
This is Afrobean (6:18:16 PM): being REALLY innactive is exactly that
stressreliefball (6:18:16 PM): and thus lay low...
This is Afrobean (6:18:21 PM): something that draws attention to him
stressreliefball (6:18:25 PM): but he hasn't been blah or ld
stressreliefball (6:18:31 PM): he's made posts
stressreliefball (6:18:35 PM): just small ones
This is Afrobean (6:18:39 PM): he's not been helpful though
This is Afrobean (6:18:48 PM): except he did contribute on day 1
stressreliefball (6:19:15 PM): well I can agree that the evidence can go both ways
stressreliefball (6:19:18 PM): the problem is
stressreliefball (6:19:24 PM): is there a better candidate?
This is Afrobean (6:19:35 PM): I'd say Omega
This is Afrobean (6:19:38 PM): but I know you don't think so
stressreliefball (6:19:55 PM): I can't read omega that well
This is Afrobean (6:20:06 PM): I don't really know Omega well either
stressreliefball (6:20:07 PM): in eb's game I was sure he was human til the instant it came back wolf
This is Afrobean (6:20:18 PM): but I know that he's more intelligent than to justify a vote so stupidly
stressreliefball (6:20:49 PM): which means that you think he's human?
This is Afrobean (6:20:55 PM): then again, that evidence could also go both ways
stressreliefball (6:21:10 PM): right, there's nothing hard out there right now
This is Afrobean (6:21:12 PM): I'm really confused now
stressreliefball (6:21:21 PM): this day will create the hard evidence
This is Afrobean (6:21:27 PM): damn I thought it was so clear cut, but it's really not
stressreliefball (6:21:40 PM): not at all
stressreliefball (6:21:51 PM): the other thing to consider to is who would attack kilga and tass back to back
This is Afrobean (6:22:04 PM): Omega isn't going to do anything further to prove his wolfishness/humanity anyway
stressreliefball (6:22:08 PM): tass thinks ap would, Iagree, I think you would, he disagrees
This is Afrobean (6:22:10 PM): he'll be especially careful
This is Afrobean (6:22:16 PM): dude
This is Afrobean (6:22:33 PM): it's been pounded into the ground that this is almost an allstar
This is Afrobean (6:22:49 PM): anyone of us who knows the logistics of the guardian role well enough would go for Kilga
stressreliefball (6:22:53 PM): right but people still have different personalities
stressreliefball (6:23:00 PM): I wouldn't have risked it, for example
This is Afrobean (6:23:11 PM): there was little risk involved
stressreliefball (6:23:21 PM): the risk of not getting a wolfing
This is Afrobean (6:23:24 PM): especially since at that point it was thought that tor was maybe the guardian
This is Afrobean (6:23:34 PM): think about it though
This is Afrobean (6:23:46 PM): minus one wolfing for the chance to take out an early alliance
stressreliefball (6:23:50 PM): not when kilga was attacked torlock wasn't assumed to be the guardian
This is Afrobean (6:24:13 PM): oh that came after kilga's death?
stressreliefball (6:24:24 PM): yeah that's what spawned that whole debate
This is Afrobean (6:24:43 PM): oh I thought it spawned from people trying to figure out why the wolves went for tor
stressreliefball (6:25:14 PM): no people thought he might be blue but mead was the only one who suggested he might have been the guardian
stressreliefball (6:25:18 PM): and mead was largely ignored
This is Afrobean (6:25:27 PM): mead is always largely ignored
This is Afrobean (6:25:29 PM): haha
stressreliefball (6:25:33 PM): very true
stressreliefball (6:25:42 PM): anyway this has been a good chat but I'm afraid I must eat
stressreliefball (6:25:48 PM): talk to you later
This is Afrobean (6:25:50 PM): yea, I should eat too soon
This is Afrobean (6:25:53 PM): see ya

[Afrobean]

Actually, it's something about Gaim. Every once in a while it inserts those (every 5 minutes from when the convo started it seems). I'm not sure what they appear for.

EDIT: haha that's right... I was gonna eat. I never did though.

[JurseyRider734]

Afro I find it funny that you think no one is a wolf, yet there are wolves left.

[Afrobean]

Jurs, I find it funny that you missed the part where I listed many people that have a chance of being a wolf. Just because I don't say specifically "I think XXX is a wolf" doesn't mean I don't believe it's possible, especially since most people I identified with things like "I dunno. could be."

The only people that almost certainly aren't wolves in my opinion are talisman, ap, and tass. And then there's me of course, but I can't justify my humanity any better than "I saw my PM."