TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Humans Win)

[mead1]

I agree with your previous post Guido. I kind of suspect ap. To a random jTWG n00b, he'd probably look like the guy to go to for advice. What's more, ap being the tricky devil he is, could easily have gotten his role out of Torlock if he didn't volunteer it.

There's my two cents.

[Afrobean]

Honestly, I'm not surprised Kilga wasn't guarded. Every game, the guardian has been second guessing the wolves. In fact, if someone else had been wolfed last night and had been guarded, NO ONE would say ANYTHING about the guardian having not guarded Kilga.

Realistically, I don't think any of us would have guarded Kilga.

"Surely Kilga is the prime wolfing target," says the guardian.

"Oh NO! THE GUARDIAN KNOWS WHO WE WANT DED. better go 4 someone else" says the wolf.

"oh hay, the wolf the knows I want to guard Kilga, so he'll just stay away from him from fear of a saved human. That means I'm free to guard someone else," says the guardian.

"oh wait, teh guardian thinks ill stay away from kilga at all costs... so duh, Kilga is the best kill," says the wolf.

It's only logical that Kilga wouldn't be guarded as the alliance leaders usually aren't. Is this like the first game where this type of thing has happened?

[QreepyBORIS]

I'm not the only one who sees TPS's conversations as glaringly wolfish, am I?

He has been (trying to be) surrounding himself with blues all through the game, and as it has only been 2 days and there would be no reason for wolves to be on to him and no purpose at all for a distraction, the only logical conclusion that I could come to was that he is a wolf.

Is there much else to say, really?

[JurseyRider734]

Okay, EXTREMELY dumb on the part of the guardian. We just lost our only confirmed human, but also I see Afro's point in that it has happened before. We can only be thankful that we for-sure lynched a wolf yesterday.

Otherwise, the guardian is dead (was Torlock most likely, which is why a noob would get wolfed day 1).

[nforcer06164]

I was talking to Talisman last night, and I mentioned how I thought the wolves would have the balls to go for Kilga, and that the alliance would be the key of this game. Kind of ironic in retrospect, eh, Talis?

Well, the most I can say is... now what? TPS is obviously the most suspicious person at this point, but I've learned by now, AS ALL OF YOU SHOULD HAVE, that there's no reason to kill TPS just because he looks a bit wolfy... because he always does. He always tried something new, often stupid, regardless of his role. Hold off the voting, let's get some more discussion in, and THEN we can vote TPS if we cannot come up with a better solution. For those of you that already voted TPS, I'm ashamed of you.

Now that I think of it... we should have somehow confirmed the guardian was not dead (which now seems to be true of Torlock) before Kilga came out. Too late for that now, but I was thinking about that while reading the thread, until I saw Kilga's post. I should've gotten into the thread sooner.

[talisman]

tps, stop doing weird stuff. ugh, that first post you made could go so many ways.

It could be that you're a human just pointing out a potential reason that torlock might have been wolfed. (that he'd somehow shown himself to be blue to a red he'd been talking to).
However that immediately raises suspicion on you, with people thinking "oh tps is posting it because he thinks people will think there's no way he'd be dumb enough to call attention to himself like that."
But on the other hand one could say "tps as a wolf wouldn't post that convo, he'd only post the idea that perhaps torlock revealed himself. He'd never risk the attention."

I lean towards that scenario, personally, but you never know.

Now about all this "torlock had to be the guardian" crap. Yes, it's possible, but I don't even think it's likely. I think that the guardian just chanced on someone else. Plus I don't think torlock is that much of a tool, nor do I think he even talked to anyone besides tps before the game started. Tps is definitely one to go out and open up an aim topic with someone before the game starts, but who else did? Especially to someone like torlock whom no one knows?

[JurseyRider734]

I know Torlock, he talks to me a few times a week, but I didn't talk to him about TWG.

And yes about the Tps thing, but you have to realize that he will do things that seem stupid but end up working (see: when he was a wolf and almost won). I'm not going to say what he will and won't do, because that's for him to decide to do. I'm not going to say he's not going to do something just because a wolf wouldn't do that.

[QreepyBORIS]

Well, the most I can say is... now what? TPS is obviously the most suspicious person at this point, but I've learned by now, AS ALL OF YOU SHOULD HAVE, that there's no reason to kill TPS just because he looks a bit wolfy... because he always does. He always tried something new, often stupid, regardless of his role. Hold off the voting, let's get some more discussion in, and THEN we can vote TPS if we cannot come up with a better solution. For those of you that already voted TPS, I'm ashamed of you.

Dude, he's probably just counting on us thinking that it's "just him being TPS" again. You can't simply rule someone out of the running because they act weird in most games. That does in no way decrease the chance of them being a wolf; it only makes him look human in every game he plays, because people rely on terrible logic like this.

Hold off voting for discussion to take place? Voting is the best way to initiate discussion. And again you go back to the whole group logic idea. We do not decide as a group who our "best bet" is--we vote for who we think is a wolf! Jesus!

So why are you ashamed? Free-thinkers get you down?

[talisman]

no qreepy, it always makes him look like a wolf, not a human. you're not voting for him because you think he's human.

Right now I just doubt that he would post the convo. could he be reverse psyching us? yes, and I already posted that possibility. I just think it's more likely he isn't. I think the torlock kill was random, deliberately designed to confuse us.

[Tps222]

Your logic makes me laugh.

If I do stupid things, I am a wolf, trying to sneak by as myself. If I play normally, I am a wolf, changing my style. Am I ever human in this game?

You don't post something to just say you wouldn't post it. Why just not post it at all? Same results imo.

[GuidoHunter]

Afro, way back when in the game where it was Alain and I against guarded Tass + alliance, we tried second-guessing the guardian and got dicked by it, so the guardian is usually intelligent.

And yeah, Afro, that scenario you gave is the reason the guardian does try to second-guess the wolves, but if you look at it, IT'S JUST FLAT-OUT STUPID.

Cost of guarding Kilga: You're pretty much guaranteed to not have a guarding. Big whoop, how often do we have guardings? Rarely. And if we did, it would be Kilga, who we're assuming to already be a confirmed human.

Benefit of guarding Kilga: KILGA DOESN'T DIE AND WE HAVE AN ALLIANCE.

Cost of NOT guarding Kilga: LOSS OF KILGA AND ALLIANCE

Benefit of not guarding Kilga: a 1/13 chance of guarding someone else.

The numbers don't add up. NOT GUARDING KILGA IS STUPID and no reasonable guardian should have tried to guard someone else. I like to think we have reasonable people playing this game, and while some of our actions defy good reason, realizing that not guarding Kilga just isn't worth it can be seen by everyone.

This makes me think even more that Torlock was the guardian (talisman, it would also explain why he died last night). Of course, we have Tass to confirm that if nobody steps forward.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[talisman]

uh, guardian, don't "step forward" like guido just mentioned. Do it through tass, if you do it at all.

[GuidoHunter]

That's exactly what I said, talisman. Tass will tell us that the guardian isn't alive if nobody steps forward to him.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[talisman]

Oh! wow I completely misread that sentence. I though you were saying "Well we have tass to confirm if that's wrong (because someone would come to him) if no one steps forward (in public)." not "well we have tass to confirm that I'm right about torlock being dead if no one comes to tass." Sorry.

[QreepyBORIS]

no qreepy, it always makes him look like a wolf, not a human. you're not voting for him because you think he's human.

Right now I just doubt that he would post the convo. could he be reverse psyching us? yes, and I already posted that possibility. I just think it's more likely he isn't. I think the torlock kill was random, deliberately designed to confuse us.

Err, I voted for him a couple posts above. Read.

And Torlock dead as opposed to a high-profile member dead means nothing. Neither indicates more than the other who the wolf is.


And TPS, thank you for expecting us not to take your claims about your own strategy with a grain of salt. Because that would make no sense.