TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

**soramimi** · 02-12-2014, 01:08 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Busy reading up...

**soramimi** · 02-12-2014, 01:30 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

@sunfan, yes, that does answer my question. I was a bit offput when after the cedo lynch gained momentum that you unvoted. I realize it's early and all and I'm sure you wanted to wait to see what other input we could get, but you removed your vote from your primary suspect. It struck me as odd.

@cedo, why didn't you say "I'm the vigi" rather than "I killed james" when you initially made your claim? Would have spared some confusion. Also the "I lied, I'm a vigi"... were you wanting us to think you were SK?

**Crazyjayde** · 02-12-2014, 01:32 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

I was also wondering about role distributions earlier but I can't quite figure it out. It's unfortunate that we can't have Yoshl make another analyze. With that said I'll try to understand the basics and get us solid intel.

Also, I want to get back on what I said about yesterday's lynch. If cedo really has vigied Dance between the two night kills (see below as to why I think so), then the wolves might have been on a power role hunt yesterday, therefore there's no distancing whatsoever in this kill, or maybe not even any underlying intention. In that sense, I think they wanted to get rid of their most suspicious heavy poster, and that way, try to gain more control in day phases OR be able to skate by as they were gathering heat from Yoshl. I think the first one is more plausible. In any case, looking at active posters quitting D2 and their change of behavior in D3 is worth the shot.

-

On the cedo claim:

What a clumsy claim, although I think it says more than what it is. For sure, it changes a shit ton the perspective of the last day.
There's no chance the SK will come out of the blue fake-claiming, considering wolves are both looking out for PR and him, it's an instant death. Although, it is possible a wolf will, I'd still suggest it wouldn't get them anywhere with the current context. With the possibility of the counterclaim, they'd save maybe one day, and it's an enormous risk especially if they don't know the affiliation of the author of the second kill. This is where I think wolves are also interested in role distribution, but given its importance I think we shouldn't hold it private. Although if that's the case and the vigi is out there, I don't think I need to stress the importance of a counterclaim.

This preoccupation aside, I've got next to no suspicion on cedo's claim. For reasons above, it's very reasonable to say that either the SK/vigi killed Dance, and the wolves bit Yoshl. I think wolves would want to stay clear of lynching Dance for the fact that the suspicion was stirring a lot of steam between players.

And regarding this:

Originally posted by thesunfan

only way I see you getting lynched is if the wolves are dead and it comes down to an SK hunt.

This is out of place. The current claim shatters any hint of an existing SK. There is now an identified threat and the wolves know damn well they'd better get them off their radar. Meaning after the next phase, wolves won't fear much anything. Almost certain cedo dies tonight, either that, or somebody is screwing with us.

What do you think of it thesunfan? I'm rather interested to see why you didn't consider it.

**emerald000** · 02-12-2014, 01:35 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

First of all, I made a script to compute what possible setups we have. Assuming cedo didn't lie, we have one of those:

If we also assume the N1 kill was somehow blocked, we have one of these:

I'll be back soon with what I thought about the EoD. Just have to refresh my memory a bit.

**cedolad** · 02-12-2014, 01:38 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Originally posted by soramimi

@cedo, why didn't you say "I'm the vigi" rather than "I killed james" when you initially made your claim? Would have spared some confusion. Also the "I lied, I'm a vigi"... were you wanting us to think you were SK?

Well, I figured me just coming out saying I killed James carried more weight. Mind you he's the only dead Mafia... because of me.

And no, initially I didn't want to come out as a vigi because I didn't want to say I killed dance, honestly I'm 100% ashamed I killed dance because of the flip.

**Crazyjayde** · 02-12-2014, 01:38 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Cedo, this night phase I'd want you to abstain from your role. I'm thinking of something. We can control a lot if you don't die tonight.

@cedo, I'm with sora on this one, why the lie and the sudden while restraint claiming your role?

@emerald, thanks a bunch!

**Crazyjayde** · 02-12-2014, 01:39 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Ok answer I guess, but I still feel your urge to kill someone every night is something worth noting.

**thesunfan** · 02-12-2014, 01:40 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

@Jayde As my previous posts have indicated, I'm clearly incompetent when it comes to distributing roles, and I don't see how having a vigi would make having an SK impossible, though I do now see why there is almost certainly not an SK in this game. Most of the posts I've made today regarding distribution of roles are pretty dumb, and I apologize for that misconception. Regardless, that post does at least mention that cedo is completely off the chopping block imo. As for killing cedo or not, this always happens at least once every game but DON'T TELL THE WOLVES WHAT THEY SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT DO! There's literally no reason for us to mention what they should do in the thread. Don't give them ideas, you know better than that.

@sora People have been lynched after making claims when people vote without paying attention to the number of votes, or when anti-town players claim that they weren't paying attention to the votecount. (See how YMIA was lynched in No One Messes With The Frog, another C9++ game that was run on this site). I wasn't going to let that happen, even if he was my primary suspect.

**cedolad** · 02-12-2014, 01:41 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Simply for the flip. We haven't nailed a wolf since my N1 kill, after seeing the D2 flip, I was heavily determined to kill a wolf. Again that's why I'm so ashamed of killing dance. He was a strong human in most peoples reads and I went against the majority and now we (moreso I), am paying the price.

**thesunfan** · 02-12-2014, 01:42 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

wow, my response to sora doesn't make any sense given the context, what I mean to say was, I didn't want him to be insta'd too quickly. He was 2 away from insta, and people have been killed in previous games in similar situations due to negligence and laziness, and I didn't want that to happen, even if he was my lead suspect.

**cedolad** · 02-12-2014, 01:44 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Don't lie Greg, you love me

**thesunfan** · 02-12-2014, 01:44 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

*turns away*

**soramimi** · 02-12-2014, 01:47 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

ps emerald, you are awesome.

**cedolad** · 02-12-2014, 01:50 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Well guys I'm off to work.

**Crazyjayde** · 02-12-2014, 01:51 PM

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Originally posted by thesunfan

Don't give them ideas, you know better than that.

Agreed, but it's not like the wolves aren't thinking the obvious. What I'm coming at, is that there is possibility that they don't, which is why I'm suggesting it might be beneficial to not send in a vigi kill this night.

Charu, are we following natural resolution? As in, will the wolves halt the vigi's actions upon kill?

TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

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