TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

[emerald000]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Intenting to hammer soon. I just got to do a little math for our dear Mea.

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

unvote

[emerald000]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Here are the setups where there are either a vigilante or a Serial Killer. Also assumes there is a (1-Shot)? Doctor|Roleblocker:

BBBCCTV: BBCvGЯFKTTTTT 180
BBCCCTV: BbCcvGЯFKTTTT 540
BBCCDTV: BbCDvGЯFKTTTT 360
BBCCVVV: BbCVvGЯFTTTTT 72
BCCCCTV: BCCvGЯFKTTTTT 1620
BCCCDTV: BCcDvGЯFKTTTT 1080
BCCCVVV: BCcVvGЯFTTTTT 216
BCCDDTV: BCDdvGЯFKTTTT 720
BCCDVVV: BCDVvGЯFTTTTT 144
BCCMMTV: BCMMvGЯFKTTTT 720
BCCTTTV: BCvGGЯKTTTTTT 18000
BCCTVVV: BCVvGЯFKTTTTT 720
CCCCDTV: CCDvGЯFKTTTTT 3240
CCCDDTV: CcDdvGЯFKTTTT 2160
CCCDVVV: CcDVvGЯFTTTTT 432
CCDDDTV: CDDvGЯFKTTTTT 1440
CCDDVVV: CDdVvGЯFTTTTT 288
CCDMMTV: CDMMvGЯFKTTTT 1440
CCDTTTV: CDvGGЯKTTTTTT 36000
CCDTVVV: CDVvGЯFKTTTTT 1440

B: Roleblocker
b: 1-Shot Roleblocker
C: Cop
c: 1-Shot Cop
D: Doctor
d: 1-Shot Doctor
I: Innocent Child
M: Mason
V: Vigilante
v: 1-Shot Vigilante
G: Goon
F: Godfather
Я: Mafia Roleblocker
K: Serial Killer
T: Vanilla Townie
Sum of probabilities: 70812

So, in 95.32% of setups, there is a Serial Killer with no Vigilante. In 1.63% of setups, there is a Vigilante with no Serial Killer. In the other 3.05%, there is both.

In short, we have a 98.35% of having a Serial Killer. Huh.

[Silvuh]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Also: the probability of cedo being a full Vigi and there being an SK is 15/23, 65%.

(These show four letters because CCV is given for both.)

BBVV 1
BCVV 3
BDVV 2
BTVV 10
CDVV 6
DDVV 4
DTVV 20

Total = 46

BBBT 1
BBCT 3
BBDT 2
BCCT 9
BCDT 6
BDDT 4
BMMT 4
BTTT 100
BTVV 4
CCDT 18
CDDT 12
DDDT 8
DMMT 8
DTTT 200
DTVV 8

Total = 387

The numbers are easier to look at if you divide by the smallest value, so the least likely scenario has weight 1.

[emerald000]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

I'm not sure what you did there, Silvuh. Where does the 15/23 comes out from? Also, I guess you shouldn't divide each section by a different number.

[emerald000]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

PS: Just adding your 100 and 200 gives 300/(46+387) = 69% of a SK without a vigi. Not sure what you are doing to those numbers.

[emerald000]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Wait that doesn't add like that since you are dividing by different numbers each section. Just refer to my numbers then. (18000+36000)/70812 = 76.26% of SK without vigi with just those 2.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

@mea, right off the bat

I picked every post you made concerning how it could potentially be interpreted as a possible pairing. Of course, some of the things I've said don't carry much weight and shouldn't be taken for account, I was just gathering data for people to make their choice. In that sense, I don't think you can defend every point I made. But sure I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, there are some late things you done in there I could see justified, but look at D1 though.

I'm here if someone needs me. Reading.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

True, I should have made a sunfan list too, but to be honest I am convinced you are a solid choice and needed to sleep. All depends on the flip anyway.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Wait what, I didn't think jrodd's vote on himself would count.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Wait what, I didn't think jrodd's vote on himself would count.

Going by previous games and the other game going side by side with this, self votes do count, so I'm assuming that's how it goes.

[emerald000]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Usually the rule was that the vote would count for lynching purpose but would not count for avoiding getting a phantom.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

The more you know.

@cedo, lol this is almost an excuse for making SK actions. Well, I guess I know what you want to do and why, I can't agree that we might have got played hard by the wolves considering how it all went down, you'd think there's no other valuable lynch. Obviously you should vigi Silv if he is lying, what is that logic seriously, and who other would think that way. I really want you to elaborate.

@emerald, give me a heads up whenever you want me to place the vote.

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

The more you know.

@cedo, lol this is almost an excuse for making SK actions. Well, I guess I know what you want to do and why, I can't agree that we might have got played hard by the wolves considering how it all went down, you'd think there's no other valuable lynch. Obviously you should vigi Silv if he is lying, what is that logic seriously, and who other would think that way. I really want you to elaborate

You're really trying to get me to say things I don't want to.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Well it's not like you are elaborating on your thoughts.
I'm basing it off your current claim and the hollow justifications behind your kills also. What was mostly a gut feeling turned into actual inquiry thanks to your quick defensive post.

I don't condemn you as a vigi or a SK, what I say is while I trust your vigi claim for the moment, it all depends how the night phase will unfold.