TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

@sora, any thoughts?

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

I'm trying my best to be very vague about my thoughts. This night phase may or may not turn things around for us. It's best if we leave it at that, and we're going to need to trust each other.

I know what needs to be done during the night phase pending the flip, but I don't want to make that information public anymore than it already is.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

All I'm wondering is why you claimed not to kill Silv if Jrodd flips anti-town.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

I'm trying my best to be very vague about my thoughts. This night phase may or may not turn things around for us. It's best if we leave it at that, and we're going to need to trust each other.

I know what needs to be done during the night phase pending the flip, but I don't want to make that information public anymore than it already is.

Turn things around for us? We've got one wolf left with two full blue roles, with another (unless the wolves didn't send in a kill Night One, which I refuse to believe is the case) that blocked the kill night one/saved someone. Humans are set. Leaning towards you being an SK instead of a vigi at this point, you're pretty much just making it so that you're the first person people will look to once the wolves are dead. If you're vigi, you're playing a weird game that I don't really understand, if you're SK, you're essentially making it to where you cannot win, idgi but w/e. Its not of concern at the moment.

I think we're all clear on what to do once j-rodd is dead and that we know who is doing what tonight. If you're taking votes, doesn't look like you are but I'm doing it anyways, mea/sora and maaaaaybe jayde if you're feeling baylife are good choices to vigi tonight. Mea if you happen to care.

Alright, I'm not gonna post anymore unless this phase is still going on when I get back home in a few hours. Glad it won't really be a scramble this phase, at least.

[Silvuh]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

I was calculating a conditional probability, not a conjunction. I should have worded my post differently, because using "and" at the top was wrong, although I did say "given" in the spoiler tag names. My mistake.

P(A and B) = P(A|B)P(B)
P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

Given that there's a vigi, the 15/23 comes from the weights in my first tag, (BTVV + DTVV)/Total = (10 + 20)/46 = 30/46 = 15/23 = 65%. This is P(SK|Vigi) = P(SK and Vigi) / P(Vigi).

(sum combinations with VVVT) / (sum of combinations with VVV) = (720 + 1440) / (72 + 216 + 144 + 720 + 432 + 288 + 1440 ) = 2160/3312 = 15/23

The probability of there being a vigi and an SK (which is how I incorrectly worded my previous post) is P(SK|Vigi)P(Vigi) = (15/23)(92/1967)=60/1967 = 3.05%.

If instead it's given that there's an SK, then the probability comes from my second tag, (BTVV + DTVV)/Total = 12/387 = 4/129, and the probability of there being a vigi is 3.1%.

(sum of combinations with VVVT) / (sum of combinations with T or TTT) = 2160/69660 = 4/129 = 3.1%

Given that there is no vigi, the probability of there being an SK is 100%. P(SK|V')=1, so the probably of there being an SK and no Vigi is P(SK and V') = 1*P(V') = 67500/70812 = 95.32% as you've calculated.

Sorry for the mix-up.

What I meant to be saying was "You know, even if cedo isn't lying, it's still more likely that there's an SK" in response to the uh, WIFOM trap. (The another-SK possibility has already been mentioned, so I don't think I'm crossing a line by saying this. Sorry if I am, but this is the last I'll say of it.)

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

And if he flips SK of course you should vigi Silvuh, that's a no brainer.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

I'm giving this last page unless discussion picks up. Some still have yet to post.

[emerald000]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Oh I see. I misunderstood what you meant.

And yes, we can almost assume there is a serial killer. I'm almost pretty sure it is cedo too. It would be to the SK's advantage to kill every night. But the only accounted kills are cedo's and another one on N2. It means either there was 3 kills blocked in two nights, there is actually not a serial killer or cedo is a serial killer. I find the first proposition highly unlikely. The second one has 1.63% of happening. I'm willing to bet on the last option.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

I lied about not making anymore posts cuz the clock I was looking at was an hour ahead. I agree with emerald, kinda sorta. I'm gonna change his words here, but the odds of there being an SK are kinda ridiculous given how things have played out, and if there is one, its almost certainly cedo. Its not really worth discussing until the last wolf is dead, anyways. SK and humans still have the same goal.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

wait, I read that post wrong, sorry emerald.
I don't think there's a serial killer, but if there is one, its cedo. Apologies for the misread on my part.

[Crazyjayde]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

And yes, we can almost assume there is a serial killer. I'm almost pretty sure it is cedo too. It would be to the SK's advantage to kill every night. But the only accounted kills are cedo's and another one on N2. It means either there was 3 kills blocked in two nights, there is actually not a serial killer or cedo is a serial killer. I find the first proposition highly unlikely. The second one has 1.63% of happening. I'm willing to bet on the last option.

And so we seem to agree.
soramimi has gone away and so has cedo so I assume everything has been said.

jrodd

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

yeah fuck it i'm tired of this game now I'm the SK. lets get the wolves then you can lynch me.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

is that insta? I saw jrodd took his vote off?

[Charu]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Was not insta, day is still going.

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

Vote count rofl