TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

I had some ideas Day 1, but we lynched j-rodd and ended day early.
I really didn't post day 2, but then again day started on the 22nd and ended on the 23rd

We used one/two days out of 5 on day 2. I was really surprised to stop back in here and see it was night phase. Like of the last 8 days only two of them were days where we could post.

Anyway I'm reading up now.

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

I've really lost my taste for this game, but I'll at least eat some of it to get my daily vitamins.

Tomorrow I'll have fuck-all to do and hopefully more energy/focus to do it with so that will be when my huge analysis post is done.

manti's heavy absence from the last phase is a wolfy thing for Manti. Last time we were wolves together he would delay giving analysis and contribute the bare minimum.

Also remember his gamebreaking plan that only like 3 people have adhered to?

Whoa there, loverboy. Not that I don't share your suspicion to a degree (I will address the specifics of this shortly) but we have yet to hear from a few players regarding the dilemma and all, so let's listen for this plan's heart to stop beating before we declare it clinically dead.

The thing with lito/rsd is that I don't have this strong impression that either of them are particularly engaged players in the first place. This is lito's first game of TWG since FFYa, and when he played there he was a terrible inactive also. RSD I don't even think I've played a game with him before, but I don't recall reading a game where he was active. Both of these are inactives but their inactivity is also a null tell.

We aren't really in a place to lynch inactives for being inactive. We need to strike red this phase or we're at lynch-or-lose tomorrow.

Manti's inactivity, on the other hand, is a sign that he is a wolf. He's inactive, he isn't getting night-killed while being almost completely under the radar (wolves wouldn't know manti would continue to be inactive if he wasn't one), and his initial foray into the thread indicated a mindset and level of attachment to this game that wanted to lead the charge which shifted almost immediately after bringing it up towards not that mindset and level of attachment.

P1: I got nothing on Lito, but I know when RSD is active he at least pretends to give a shit about the games he joins as a human. Now, I've only played one game where he was a wolf IIRC, but when he was, when he wasn't a complete nonentity (which was most of the time) he vacillated between noncommittal white noise and excuses. Plus, lurking the thread with NOTHING to say, not even during the crucial, heated discussion of the last day where several suspects were ripe for interrogation/defense/what have you – it communicates to me that he had no interest in actually lynching wolves, and thus, may in fact be a wolf just staying on the sidelines while faulty accusations give him free kills (the "popcorn muncher" syndrome I mentioned in my earlier post.) I have disabused myself of the notion that he is a "safe" lynch though, and I will come forth with a conclusive read/vote once I complete my analysis.

P2: Totally agree, but to restate, I didn't vote for RSD because he was an inactive being inactive, I voted him because he was present, to some degree, in thread; he was in the viewer list at what might have been THE most active, controversy-filled segments of the game, and proceeded to do abso-fucking-lutely nothing. To add another possible motive for this type of behavior, wolves can also be afraid of trying to contribute and join in such a tense and confused blame game, since any little thing that looks off about their posts the town can run with and bring the hammer down on them with the same wrath they visit on their fellow civilians.

P3: The only thing that Manti has really cleared about your argument against him is in orange. I think all other points are pretty fair. It's especially weird how he suddenly withdrew all support for his plan.

You'd think if he really believed in it or wanted people to abide by it – even given his stated circumstances – he would at least pop by and say something to the effect of "Hey guys, remember, stick to the plan!". The thing is, I actually think it's pretty sound if followed, but like I said on the first Day, that tells us jack shit about his actual alignment. There is the possibility that he saw the plan being more beneficial to humans than he was comfortable with and saw fit to just clam up about it; hoping it would die out. OR, he never really cared about the strategy, he just proposed it to earn townie-brownie points. The latter is definitely supported by how he framed it as this huge game breaker when it really just gave a little boost to the human side (although it was definitely nerfed by FoJaR consolidating the power pool.)

ARFO DOESN'T GET THE DIGNITY OF OUT OF QUOTE TEXT

That said, I'm still more than willing to see manti go down today for those other reasons. I don't even care about "pressuring" manti. His awful dilemma strategy and the way he introduced it is as though it would get a game-breaking human win is enough for me to want him absolutely dead.

Your point about Manti's framing of his strategy is 100% valid (see above) but I don't see exactly how Manti's strategy is awful, or even marginally bad. I think it does what he says it does: maximize power flow. Sure it involves effort - reading and keeping up on the game, figuring things out - but isn't this what we're supposed to do anyway as TWG players? I'm not seeing what the huge issue is.

And seriously, guys, for the future, please just choose trust always. Unless you think the person you got paired with is suspicious enough that you would be glad to personally kill them, you have no good reason to choose to betray them.

First, there's one big problem I have with the universal trust strat, and that is the fact that it essentially leaves our destinies to the cards. There is one line you can take to promote uni-trust over Manti's plan, and I wanna see if you've figured it out for yourself. But basically, because the powers in uni-trust are assigned at the flip of a coin, a Twilight could turn out either really good for us or really bad for us, and we have no way of ever knowing where in between those two extremes it will perform. With Manti's strat we at least have some idea of power distribution, and IMV a power can still be denied to a prime suspect without ruining it. I'd like an explanation, or a correction if I'm wrong about anything.

That's all I got for now, g'night everybody.

@FoJaR: posting an actual Day ending time would be much appreciated.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

I'm going to point something out that it seems people missed. The original version of #okayigetitFojar was designed to give people major powers. I assumed these to be wolfsbanes/guardians/seerings etc because I got essentially a wolfsbane ability N1. These are powerful roles that when combined would severely hinder the wolf team.

I posted this:

So I thought of a way to ruin this game

I wanted to run it by Fojar first to make sure the game would still be playable if I used this "meta" strategy, so I posted this:

I think I'm going to run it by fojar before I put it in the thread. It would very much take away the spirit of the game so to speak.

Fojar responded with do whatever (same post he made in the thread), but also threw this monkey wrench in:

so i'm realizing that all the powers are just as good, so i'm removing the major/minor distinction.

That post/rule change pretty much subverted most of my strategy. The whole idea was to get a whole bunch of seering/wolfsbanes/guardings and choke hold the wolves with them. seeing as how the "major power" pool is muddied with the minor power pool now the effectiveness of this strategy is much less.



If everyone followed the plan we would still get powers and stuff, but some of these powers aren't worth having (bookie? mandatory vigi? Silencer?). I don't really care for the plan anymore, but only because the rules were changed mid game.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Your point about Manti's framing of his strategy is 100% valid (see above) but I don't see exactly how Manti's strategy is awful, or even marginally bad.

It's awful because it requires very specific actions from everyone and it assumes that everyone should universally participate. It's already been made VERY abundantly clear that almost no one is even ACTUALLY trying to follow Manti's plan. I know that I didn't even consider whether I was "in line" with the plan or not when I got my dilemma PM. I'm sure that I'm not the only one who worked this way.

Sure it involves effort - reading and keeping up on the game, figuring things out - but isn't this what we're supposed to do anyway as TWG players? I'm not seeing what the huge issue is.

The issue is that the plan requires more "keeping up" than most players are willing to put forth. Some players aren't even reading every post. Look at how far behind Manti HIMSELF is.

But manti's plan DOESN'T maximize roles. In an ideal situation it MATCHES expected role turnout rates with my idea's ideal situation (i.e., 50% overall probability for either). The difference, of course, is that mine is easy to explain, understand, and participate in, while manti's plan is a complicated system of rules that change each night.

There is one line you can take to promote uni-trust over Manti's plan, and I wanna see if you've figured it out for yourself.

This is very weird of you to say. I've already pointed out why my idea is superior. If you think there is ANOTHER reason why it is superior that I haven't mentioned, why are you arguing against it? And why not reveal the angle you're seeing that I'm apparently not?

ps manti, are you conceding that your plan is inferior then? Would you agree that a universal policy of trusting is the better option?

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

pps

ps manti, are you conceding that your plan is inferior then? Would you agree that a universal policy of trusting is the better option?

If you agree that your complicated plan isn't useful, why didn't you say so earlier? Why didn't you advocate changing the plan? You've had a few opportunities already. Even in your last post, you explained why you thought your plan was better before, but didn't explicitly say that it was worse now.

[YoshL]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

On a church retreat just popping in to pop in, haven't read shit though

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

for the record: runescapedude was lurking a few minutes ago

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

day ends noon dec 30 EST

votecount coming soon

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

votecount:

manti(3): v, ymia, arfo
rsd(1): bdn
v(1): dance

yet to vote: kgz, manti, mellon, charu, yoshl, lito, rsd, tokzic, guest

8 votes needed to lynch

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

twilight 3 dilemma reports up to now

V/runescape (trust/???)
me/Tokzic (trust/???)
BDN/Charu (betray/trust; BDN claimed silencer)
KgZ/Raeko (trust/betray; Raeko claimed self-guard)
YMIA/Guest (trust/trust; 2 powers claimed)
Afro/TPS (trust/trust according to Afro; claimed vigi kill, targeted jrodd)


no report yet

Manti
YoshL
lito

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

ps manti, are you conceding that your plan is inferior then? Would you agree that a universal policy of trusting is the better option?

I think universal trust is a bad idea for this point in the game. We're just over halfway through and we have to get a wolf lynch in the next two days. The value you were trying to convey with looking at who gets powers and who doesn't may not come into effect.

What I see happening is the wolves will universally betray tonight (via universal trust) get a ton of powers and clinch the day phase tomorrow.


I think my plan is better then universal trust. it's really not that difficult. Phases just ended before I could implement it. I'm really against starting universal trust right now.

[mellonxcollie]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

What I see happening is the wolves will universally betray tonight (via universal trust) get a ton of powers and clinch the day phase tomorrow.

yeeeeeeeeeeah let's not do that

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

I hadn't considered that we were looking at what is potentially the last bight. Someone posted a link (was it V?) of a lot of different systems for "playing" the prisoner's dilemma, and it seemed clear through the many iterations that "betray" is the best option on the finite final instance.

I suppose we SHOULD do manti's plan tonight. If the wolves seek to destroy powers for humans, they would be CLEARLY revealing themselves to do so. This means that we need ABSOLUTE compliance and we HAVE TO be willing to immediately lynch anyone who doesn't follow the plan.

But I'm still fucking mad that this shit was allowed to fly unopposed on day 1.

it's really not that difficult.

Bitch, have you been paying attention? From the beginning, basically only like 2 people actually made an effort to follow it. Because it's too complicated. Yeah, it's not ACTUALLY that complicated when the rules are clearly drawn out (they were buried by the end of day 1, not spelled out clearly for day 2), but considering what level of play we have here, you should have KNOWN it wouldn't work.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Ok so here's manti's post from day 1:

Na day 1 strats are usually legit. It's not quite as good now since Fojar removed the major/minor distinction.

Anyway here's the idea: The main difficulty with this game is knowing when to trust/betray your teammate. If we can maximize the powers we get out of that scenario we stand a pretty good chance at winning.

That being said how do we maximize powers? We don't know who's going to be paired with who and we can't talk to them once we do!

We create a hierarchy. ex: the player list.

1. V
2. jrodd
3. dAnceguy
4. BDN
5. KgZ
6. Manti
7. mellon
8. TPS
10. CHARU
12. Riot
13. lito
14. rune
15. Gradiant
16. sunfan
17. Tokzic
18. YMIA
19. Guest
20. psychoangel

The thought here is to plan for the future. It is my opinion when two players get paired up, they look at this list and whoever has the higher number betrays, while whoever has the lower number trusts. This guarentees powers get out into play. The more powers that get into play, the more likely it is for the humans to be successful, because as a whole we have more players and should win more of these battles then we loose.

Let's amend the plan to say:

WHOEVER HAS A LARGER NUMBER CHOOSES BETRAY. WHOEVER HAS A SMALLER NUMBER MUST TRUST.

1. V
2. jrodd
3. dAnceguy
4. BDN
5. KgZ
6. Manti
7. mellon
8. TPS
10. CHARU
12. Riot
13. lito
14. rune
15. Gradiant (Afrobean)
16. sunfan
17. Tokzic
18. YMIA
19. Guest
20. psychoangel

We need to follow this ABSOLUTELY. Do NOT do something else, because we WILL need to lynch you for it. Also, was someone else a replacement? Can we clarify that in an updated player list?

[yo man im awesome]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Saying hello to say that a) I'm not going to be here too much today since I'm going to a concert.

B) my power was to choose a random player, and I would find out if said player had and power and if they used it, however I wouldn't know what the power was. So I used it on Afro to see if he'd tell the truth about if he had a power, which he did.

C) when you say larger number, Afro, you mean like 2>1 or 1>2? Sounds silly, but would like to be positive.