-
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
FFR Forums --> everyone
~ OFFICIALLY RETIRED FROM FFR THE GAME AND FFR TWG ~
Thanks for the memories, folks. u da bes
Comment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
Serious time: hi there!
I could not sleep at aaaallll last night. I thought to myself that it would be best if I just stayed up and did my thing, but that didn't work. Woke up two or so hours ago with a major sleep hangover. I guess i'll spend this night with my meganalysis.
Quick reads (expect these to change and/or be greatly expanded):
Tokzic, you started out strong, but for the apparent strength of your convictions, your play has been sorely lacking in actions to back them up. Day 2 was totally understandable with my poor play, but your gung-ho attitude towards my lynch was suddenly nowhere to be found Day 3. You didn't even try to convince anyone else to switch, which would have been consistent with your beliefs (me 100% wolf, Manti 100% human); as I said, even if the switch didn't happen in time, a no-lynch would have been better than a mislynch in the case of Manti being human; which he wasn't. It makes this look like a carefully engineered chainsaw defense on Manti, because you couldn't actually find much defensible about him IYV. Finally, after the Day 2 fiasco I don't remember you looking in depth at anyone else but me. And now I'm apparently not even on the table for you anymore. What happened, wolf?
dAnceguy - Recently I was kinda moving to null on you, but that reveal is fucking weird. I see where you're coming from with the data angle, but then you say you've been playing aggressively in preview, which really doesn't ring true. I can't seem to point out anything outright wolfy, but still, sneaking suspicion.
Possibilities:
– Since dance claims to have gotten this result at the start of Day 2, before my blunder, there's no motivation yet for a wolf to ratchet up the suspicion on me with a sketchy reading. Since it's worse than useless to a wolf at that point, they would just let it fizzle. So that leaves these two:
iiiiiii– Seer was human, dance is human: Everything's golden.
iiiiiii– Seer was human, dance is wolf: he's a wolf who knows his ass is grass eventually and is trying to bring me down with him.
P.S is it just me or are the powers in this game designed to be as useless as possible? Seriously, ONE-NIGHT NEIGHBORS?
KgZ – supposedly got no powers out of a dual trust with Riotpolice (now YoshL). Seemingly, whenever the thread has got more heated, he's gotten more absent. Suspicious.
YoshL – in Riotpolice's slot. Been totally gone most of the game. Also see bottom. Suspicious.
YMIA - Null. On one hand this is kinda how he plays all the time, but on the other hand it's an easy mask to hide behind and not make the contributions to the human side that are needed at this point. Only thing that sticks out is his naked vote today.
V - Humanish, been an active contributor all game. Don't remember anything he's talked about that didn't check out or make sense from a human perspective.
Ephraim M. Pinto – Humanish. He has also been a major contributor. He is skeptical about everything and is always asking the right questions or making the right pushes.
Keep in mind that wolves love to keep people like the above two around, especially if they've been wrong (which they have been), as they begin to become scapegoats just for being alive.
Guest and mellon – Null to supicious. There is no reason to be inactive and not make your voice heard at this point in time. Guest has already stepped up in preview, but if you're not willing to play anymore mellon, cedolad is ready to take your spot.
Charu was pretty obviously a human, so good job wolves! You can read the thread!
P.S I lost this post 2 times. Once to my phone's lock screen glitching out, which is where you might have seen me earlier. ALMOST lost it to this kerfuffle, but Firefox cached it.~ OFFICIALLY RETIRED FROM FFR THE GAME AND FFR TWG ~
Thanks for the memories, folks. u da bes
Comment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
Sorry for breaking everything for a bit.
(the real Velocity)Comment
-
Comment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
No problem buddy :3
Welp, this is getting interesting.
My take on it: No one's corroborated dilemma data in a while, and it needs to be done. If it's not plausible for dance to be lying about the note itself, it's plausible for him to be lying about when he received it, or knowing about who sent it.
If anything adds up to that, I'd think he's a good lynch.
I also think we should remember that some claimed powers are really easy fakeclaims to hide behind (Kamikaze, Trap power who can just claim on whoever is still alive at the end of the night, etc.)~ OFFICIALLY RETIRED FROM FFR THE GAME AND FFR TWG ~
Thanks for the memories, folks. u da bes
Comment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
not seeing why claiming this seer thing suddenly makes me a good lynch targetComment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
still I feel like my wolf hunches are pretty good and they're not the people voting me right nowComment
-
Comment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
oh my it's 3 AM i'm going to bed
why do you all stay up so late normally/live away from me
why can't everyone live in the same time zone
Comment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
I think Charu was killed because 2 to 3 wolves were on the Manti wagon. killing a human who was on the wagon would make those wolves easier to find.
Manti rolled over during that lynch. I think a plan was in motion.
V had been calling me wolfy all game, and now it looks like he's sidelining because humans seem willing to do the dirty work.
VComment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
to me, there are certain things which should be used to clear certain players. with only one real lynch, there isn't that much information to work with. find humans and narrow down your lynch pool. yes, those clears have to be correct or else you're in a world of hurt, but the risk/reward is there.
Tokzic is probably human.Comment
-
Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
If he was faking it and merely copying what I said about my note, he did very well to guess certain things. Like saying the note was in his bunk. I didn't use that flavor text when I talked about mine.
And if he thought enough to copy what I said about mine (and got lucky with some details), but didn't double check the details (me saying I got a personal message from the seer), he also got lucky in saying he got his on a different night than mine. There are enough legitimate feeling things about it that it seems more reasonable that the differences are host changes/mistakes.
Anyway, here's my huge manti-centric game commentary:
Immediately on day 1, manti voted for runescapedude for no good reason. A joke-vote. We know they both were wolves now. Weird, he must have done it deliberately, but I can't see how he thought it would be beneficial for anyone anywhere.
danceguy replied to manti's post about powers being capable of "accidentally" killing players. He asked for someone to claim responsibility for the extra n1 kill, but didn't mentioned explicitly if he thought it was a vigi or manti's idea of a backfired power.
BDN continued the line of thought, thinking the n1 kill was an accident, a power "that makes a player kill someone who targets it". This is strange because, like manti, he didn't even consider the possibility of it being a vigi kill. Manti's justifiable excuse for disregarding the likelihood of vigi was reasonable (he himself claimed to have a power like he suggested may have caused the extra kill), but there's no excuse for BDN ignoring the possibility. I think this may be telling, because the wolves would have thought to themselves "we didn't do that, must have been some weird backfire... a townie wouldn't vigi another townie during n1 for no reason." During this post, BDN was also explicitly hunting for "major power holders". Or, if this were any other game, he was hunting for blues.
Later, still during day 1, danceguy declared manti was "totes a human!!!" alongside BDN, KgZ, and riot. That's some motley crew. danceguy also named jrodd, psychoangel, and gradient (i.e., me) as "def a wolf, easy lynch for victory!!!". He also called out Charu as "bad at this game!!!" outside of his listing of suspicions and such. Kind of a weird coincidence, but it might be worth noticing that although there were 5 wolves at the time, danceguy made the mistake of only naming 4 players as wolves.
After this, BDN voted for Manti with very weak reasoning. In the same post, he expressed suspicion on Gradient (i.e., me), KgZ, and Riot. Largely the same list danceguy listed as "totes human".
Then Manti revealed his "great" plan to "ruin the game". danceguy immediately derided it, but failed to suggest an alternative. V also spoke against it without offering an alternative, but his problem with it was because he thought the wolves would be able to game it (but never clarified HOW he thought they could). mellonxcollie also argued against it, but similarly did not offer an alternative.
The rest of day 1 activity was largely swallowed up by jrodd's stupidity. danceguy tried to deflect the jrodd lynch, but this could be wolf behavior, as wolves want townies lynched rather than there to be a no-lynch (manti also attempted to deflect the jrodd lynch). BDN claimed he was giving his "long awaited real analysis" that would reveal his reason for voting for manti, but I don't think anyone was really waiting on it. And his post supposedly explaining his reason was stupid and based largely around shit that happened AFTER he had already voted. I don't think anyone other than manti even noticed he had made it. He also pushed hard on the idea that Gradient (i.e., me) and Manti were wolves together.
On day 2, I came in and made a big post, with a large portion of it talking about my suspicions on manti. danceguy cut it apart in quote-replies, claiming I was stretching when I said manti was on my radar. Other than me bringing it up, it doesn't look like many people were too interested in talking about manti.
Later, still during day 2, BDN recanted his stance on manti. He went as far as to say "As of now I am more inclined to think Manti is human." He went from aggressively voting for a wolf on day 1 (albeit with poor reasoning) into immediately trusting that wolf during day 2 for no good reason. Shortly thereafter, BDN listed every player organized into 6 categories based on his suspicions. BDN, despite the previous claim of being "more inclined to think Manti is human", placed manti in the middle under "null". Weird.
On day 3, V opened things up with a vote for manti. He apparently primarily did it only because manti was largely absent during the previous day. This is strange because manti had previously said he would be MiA due to moving or something. ymia followed V's vote, again citing inactivity, and again ignoring that manti said he would be. danceguy was #3 on manti, but didn't add anything when putting it down. danceguy then almost immediately put his vote on V instead, again without saying why. I made a new vote #3 on manti then, reiterating my stance from before while chiding attacking him for being inactive. Then danceguy came BACK to manti for #4. manti wasn't yet ABSOLUTELY SURE to die at this point, but danceguy made an excellent observation: manti never actually posted any suspicions or anything during the whole game and only commented on game mechanics. YoshL then made a "naked" vote for manti to be #5 out of 8. At this point, it might be clear that Manti HAD to be the one to die. BDN comes in now at this point and despite previously voting for me, joins me on manti to be #6, but is very strangely non-committal in doing so ("If Manti somehow makes an epic comeback and puts me (or anyone else) on the chopping block, that's all fine and dandy.").
Haha. During the last day, BDN said this, "I suppose I could just do a Manti focused read but that could necessarily include tidbits on other players and I'm not sure how that necessarily helps town." This is quite literally exactly what I'm doing and I think it's more helpful than doing nothing at all. BDN later goes on to ask for anyone with a guardian power to use it on me... wasn't he trying to lynch me earlier that day?
Then Tokzic, refused to put manti down. He instead voted for BDN. I invited to help him lynch BDN tomorrow if we could just get manti down that day. Tokzic did not take my offer. Guest eventually came in to give the final vote for manti. Didn't he do that for jrodd during day 1 too? Right after manti got his final vote to be lynched, Tokzic expressed a certainty that manti was human. Mellonxcollie also didn't like manti getting lynched, but I don't know if I could see either of the two of them being wolves and saying so AFTER manti is ALREADY dead (but before he flipped). BDN also made a kind of lengthy post about the possibility of manti being human right before he flipped red, something I probably wouldn't expect from a wolf partner.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ok, that's it for the manti-centric game read. I'm not sure what to think. I'm going to have to let it digest a bit, but my overall feeling, especially after this seer thing, seems that BDN and danceguy might just be suspicious townies. A lot of the erratic shit they both have on their plates can just as easily be sloppy green plays as malicious red ones. Worst case scenario, we have a few days yet, and if it comes down to it, we can always lynch one of them on the final day (and the other during the next day if the game goes on). It's just kind of annoying that almost no one talked about manti. People talked about his PLAN a lot, but being suspicious or defending him was almost exclusively stuck during that one day when he died. I expressed my suspicion earlier, V called him out for inactivity and maintained solid push throughout, danceguy called him out for not trying to lynch anyone. Only tokzic and mellonxcollie seemed to really defend him or regret the lynch, but they did it AFTER he was already dead and it wouldn't make sense for a wolf to defend their partner at that point. If one of the two of tokzic/mellon are wolves, my money would be on tokzic though. Mellon seemed a little more genuine, while Tokzic seemed like he was avoiding the situation while it was happening and only regretted it afterwards?
Do we think it's possible that the wolves just steered clear of the manti thing altogether? KgZ didn't post about it (or at all?), YoshL made a naked vote for manti without talking about it, ymia didn't vote for him or say anything as far as I recall, Guest popped in at the last second to put the final nail in the coffin but didn't really say anything either.
ps@danceguy: manti didn't just roll over during that lynch, he wasn't into anything at any point during the game. Remember: at no point during the game did he try to lynch anyone else, he barely posted, and he offered up his game mechanic idea as his ONLY contribution to the game.
Comment
Comment