TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

my day 1 "reads list" wasn't very serious. I also didn't even mean to put Charu as wolfy. it just irked me that he literally told wolves what not to do instead of setting a trap.

Do we think it's possible that the wolves just steered clear of the manti thing altogether? KgZ didn't post about it (or at all?), YoshL made a naked vote for manti without talking about it, ymia didn't vote for him or say anything as far as I recall, Guest popped in at the last second to put the final nail in the coffin but didn't really say anything either.

a vote is a vote. there are early votes and late votes, but to me it's on the wagon vs. off the wagon. I think wolves were on the wagon.

ps@danceguy: manti didn't just roll over during that lynch, he wasn't into anything at any point during the game. Remember: at no point during the game did he try to lynch anyone else, he barely posted, and he offered up his game mechanic idea as his ONLY contribution to the game.

he started a late mini-comeback with a few posts. they were only about his plan thing. he could've used those posts to fake wolfhunting, and he opted not to.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

dodged my question twice.

so you have put definite trust that the note you received is true, and since you received it?

yes. I think that's how this game works. I think a PM saying "so-and-so is human" means that person is human. unless we're going to collectively ask fojar or something, then yes, I'm definitely operating on that assumption.

also BDN's day 2 reveal just to try to lynch psychoangel (who would have flipped green) would be a bad wolf play.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

so you have put definite trust that the note you received is true, and since you received it?

His note may have lacked it, but my note that came later had a message from fojar saying that the seer report was the from the host specifically. And unless otherwise stated, players HAVE TO BE ABLE to trust the all-powerful host. If the host tells us a seer report, but doesn't indicate it may not be trustworthy (and no one has reported a red miller power!), we have no reason to expect that it is not trustworthy.

If the host lies and we lose because of it, that's his fault, not ours.

Anyway, after organizing my thoughts a bit, I think I'm willing to vote for tokzic.

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Velocity has been modkilled. he was a Sonofabitch

[Velocity]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Velocity has been modkilled. he was a Sonofabitch

I kill Xiz again before my final breath.
xiz is a wolf

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

(Death post #2)

well fuck me

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Xiz is now dead twice. he was Human and a corpse respectively

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

from dilemma 1:

KgZ/Riotpolice (trust, nothing / trust, nothing)

imo 2 wolves would've had no incentive to claim trust/trust with nothing received. that draws unwanted attention. I think there are 0-1 wolves here (leaning toward 1). that's important down the road.

I was going after KgZ early because I thought Riot was human, but now I'm not so sure about YoshL.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

I find it odd that you are willing to place absolute faith in the note as i would not be willing to do that given it's contents and brevity. Also saying "it came from fojar" when fojar indicated that it came from another player indicates a pretty weird dualist interpretation of the note. Do you believe fojar wrote the note from another player? Doesn't the title indicate otherwise?

What I found weird about your tacit acceptance of the note and choice to reveal it is it seemed like, yes you may have really gotten this note given afro's corroboration of terms only note receivers (and possibly note givers) might know, but the acceptance of it's validity upon assumption that it came from fojar (when it obviously comes from another player), the dodging of the question in the first place gets at the strangeness it is to just accept without thinking that this note is true. Unless you already knew it was true because you're privy to inside information.

In that case revealing the note when you are gaining lynch suspicion is one of necessary baggage, of showing that there isn't any information you are trying to hide from humans and just as you are garnering suspicion and momentum. Your join the lynch on manti but when the lynch on manti started you seemed to jump. You made up a weak push on me for lacking sophistication and then came up with reasons after the fact of what that meant. A sign of how you act under pressure.

Again we see here a reaction to your minds predictions of the patterns of the day. First air baggage and create cognitive noise, give yourself breathing room as people heavily consider you. Throw out a banal non-topic to discuss and removing the fear that it might hurt you.

It didn't even really need to be said then, the only thing unique about that situation was the pressure on you.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

I find it odd that you are willing to place absolute faith in the note as i would not be willing to do that given it's contents and brevity. Also saying "it came from fojar" when fojar indicated that it came from another player indicates a pretty weird dualist interpretation of the note. Do you believe fojar wrote the note from another player? Doesn't the title indicate otherwise?

the alternative would be that the note was composed entirely by another player. that would be a dumb game mechanic. Afro just confirmed that these are actual seer reports.

What I found weird about your tacit acceptance of the note and choice to reveal it is it seemed like, yes you may have really gotten this note given afro's corroboration of terms only note receivers (and possibly note givers) might know, but the acceptance of it's validity upon assumption that it came from fojar (when it obviously comes from another player), the dodging of the question in the first place gets at the strangeness it is to just accept without thinking that this note is true. Unless you already knew it was true because you're privy to inside information.

never intentionally dodged the question. I was busy firing off a bunch of posts. it's not like it's a difficult question to answer.

In that case revealing the note when you are gaining lynch suspicion is one of necessary baggage, of showing that there isn't any information you are trying to hide from humans and just as you are garnering suspicion and momentum. Your join the lynch on manti but when the lynch on manti started you seemed to jump. You made up a weak push on me for lacking sophistication and then came up with reasons after the fact of what that meant. A sign of how you act under pressure.

no. I had you as my lynch target when Day 3 started. never made up anything after the fact. I knew too little about all other players and, despite the fact that you're active, I decided that you would be the best lynch.

you pushed to lynch Manti very early in that phase. no misdirection or smokescreen or anything first. it was just a straightforward "this is who we're killing today." it wasn't even a strong push from until I jumped off the wagon and you saw that you could make me look bad.

Again we see here a reaction to your minds predictions of the patterns of the day. First air baggage and create cognitive noise, give yourself breathing room as people heavily consider you. Throw out a banal non-topic to discuss and removing the fear that it might hurt you.

It didn't even really need to be said then, the only thing unique about that situation was the pressure on you.

already said that I would reveal it if I were close to being lynched. I had 2 votes on me (one of which I didn't expect) and have been under fire for a while now. I believe I saw where this phase was going, and I wanted to get the information out sooner rather than later.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

in posts #358 and #372, V votes Afro and then defends that vote. the logic is sound, but V's play here is non-committal. V says Afro's post was wolfy enough for a vote but never makes a push. I think wolves want to make justifiable votes while not having to actually lynch anyone.

V showed extreme confidence in post #644. one of the reasons why I decided I was fine with a Manti lynch was because it looked to me like V already knew. and hey, what happened next? a red flip. the last line of #644 doesn't make sense to me. that lynch was not reluctant. there was only one real push the entire phase. it took a little while for someone to hammer, but I don't think that's unusual. both humans and wolves tend to be cautious with placing the killing vote.

V looks very wolfy to me.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

you pushed to lynch Manti very early in that phase. no misdirection or smokescreen or anything first. it was just a straightforward "this is who we're killing today." it wasn't even a strong push from until I jumped off the wagon and you saw that you could make me look bad.

It wasn't a straightforward this is who we're killing today. It was a straightforward "this is who I want to kill" followed by people listening to me because my logic was sound and manti's play was shit. In calling me a wolf you are intentionally leaving out details here. The things that made the push strong were the fact that there were three large tenants of logic going on it. Manti plays like this as a wolf (inactivity, claiming to be busy, delaying his reads ad nauseum) and I can pull up like six examples to support this read, Mr. "I Know V is a wolf on his Lack of Sophistication."

What, in your perception, caused people to change their minds because you jumped off the push? That doesn't make any sense. I didn't see that at all. That sounds like some chest-puffing bluster.

Manti's initial foray into the thread with his strategy also displayed a mental presence of mind that showed engagement and a desire to lead, regardless of whatever the strategy was. A person doesn't post like that just out of an emotional void, they post out of excitement. That excitement disappeared almost entirely and didn't resurface in a single one of his posts afterwards, as if he just tapered off. No attempt to use the strategy he dreamed up for advantage, no giving of shits about the post-dilemma analysis.

And lastly, when a lynch has a strong advocate and it is against a human and the votes are piling up and it looks like nothing else is going to happen, the dead standstill and reluctance to move forward is one of the only contextual signs that you have that you are making the right push. This sort of logic is a common way to determine how a lynch is heading. People tend to scoff at it and rationalize it away but I've been in at least three or four games where too many people climbing to insta too quickly was an instant tell that the wolves were involved. Similarly, a very slow progress to lynch is a strong indicator that the wolves are reluctant, which matches up clearly with the facts here. This wasn't just some random thought that had no bearing, it was probably the thought that sent the lynch to finality as people became aware of that being a factor in the slowness.

Every game of TWG is different and people use different things to inform their thought processes: different filters, heuristics, techniques. Anyone can be clear which are the major being used at any given point in time and you can be sure the wolves are thinking that way too. The fact that I was the first to bring up the fact and that BDN felt enlightened by it shows that it was revelatory to a possible new avenue of thought. That people weren't considering that up until then, and subsequently wolves were probably not as they play with their thumb to the pulse of humans.

So again you have this appearance of coming to conclusions after you have already decided something. You very clearly decided I was a wolf with your "trap" yesterday and the only thing that you can find that is wolfy about me is my push on afrobean, which in all honesty was just me getting frustrated with afrobean because I personally dislike his thinking process and writing style. I got over it because he mellowed out and started getting his head into the game. Yes that's childish and wolfy but sometimes I will also use a vote as a form of social engineering.

You throw out the phrase "while not having to lynch anyone" so fuckin' spuriously here is shows how much you've thrown yourself into this play. You have not had to lynch anyone either until yesterday. There was no opportunity to lynch anyone.

One of the continuing things I found wolfy about you when you initially jumped on me for the afrobean push was that you were jumping on me for letting up on you when you were suddenly letting up on your dead-set lock-on full of bluster and platitudes about killing KgZ. It wasn't that I thought this was necessarily wolfy, because it isn't, because there's not much to go on. It was that you called me wolfy for a similar behavior. It's almost as if you saw your behavior and projected it. Not like "you're a hypocrite you must be a wolf" but more like "you just did that and you must feel it is wolfy so you feel you gain a buffer of safety in calling someone else out on it, because if they find it later you can say BUT LOOK HE DID IT TOO!"

anyways

danceguy

alright bro, let's tango

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

jk I'm reading it. no one is going to convince me that I'm a wolf though lol. I'll refute a few things but no multiquoting from me here.

one of the first things I picked up on which led me to aim for you was that I think you were voting for humans. I could see how my actions would end up looking a bit like I picked you randomly at first and then tried to come up with stuff, because that's kind of similar.

wolves usually don't want the person they vote for to get lynched. I'm fully aware that this game has barely had any actual lynches. what I meant was, I get the impression that you did not actually want me or Afro or BDN to get the axe circa Day 2, despite placing those votes.



to be honest I'm a bit concerned for my own reads now, because your post looks pretty genuine. but I feel like process of elimination is my best tool right now. I think you're a wolf.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

I think Guest is a wolf.