Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
votecount:
lar (1)- funny
dbp (2)- fatfuck, Duk3
fatfuck (1)- lar
votecount:
lar (1)- funny
dbp (2)- fatfuck, Duk3
fatfuck (1)- lar
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TWG Stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
FFR is a pretty good place somehow. -
Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
;o; I'm so jelly I wanna hang out with tforceOriginally posted by MixMasterLarOriginally posted by the sun fan
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
I'll post later I was just catching up on my phoneOriginally posted by MixMasterLarOriginally posted by the sun fan
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
Let's look back at the final wagons
And then I showed up:
There are only two options I see: funny is a wolf, and me logging on presented wolves an opportunity to dilute the FG vote, meaning the wolves are almost all on freezin, or freezin and funny are both towns and there was never any real danger, and the swaps on to me were just a "happy accident" that wolves could use to make EoD completely unsolvable. If FG/Freezin is T/T then we're pretty fucked. I'm not going to consider this at the moment for reasons I'll get to later.
This is because FG and freezin were almost tied and not everybody had voted yet. There was a real chance either party could have sunk. In this situation wolves either somehow convince people to vote for freezin (unreliable method) or start a CFD onto a brand new person in order to SPLIT OUT the pool of voters that would lynch their partner.
Thus the DBP CFD existed as a way to save FG. That's the only plausible explanation besides the one where a CFD naturally arose to create three town wagons. Maybe wolves still created the CFD to make things chaotic and confusing, but reading the CFD still answers this question.
So how did the CFD start off? Some posts stand out. Assuming FG is a wolf for now.
A wolf storn probably would have been able to justifiably vote freezin from the start. Remember, wolves had no way of knowing that I would show up. It's possible storn bussed his partner and expected to swap to freezin LATER but me showing up interrupted that. I'm more likely to believe that storn truly intended to lynch FG here though.
roundbox started suspicion on me early on, and even had a vote on me for a while. But you'll notice he swapped to freezin by the end of it. This is an absolutely ideal wolf maneuver: start a wagon on DBP, get the FG voters to swap to DBP, and then swap back to Freezin to absolutely guarantee a majority NOT on FG. It's a literal bait-and-switch. Him moving to freezin at the end prevents a potential KitB scenario with FG in it. (Because EoD chaos.)
This was posted a literal 2 minutes from EoD. This post is absolute ass compared to his previous somewhat detached posting. This is also the post that caused the entire CFD onto me in the first place. But Gradiant himself never landed on me. Again, another ideal situation for a wolf to be in: propose a wagon and then don't move to it. HOWEVER:
This is roundbox telling Gradiant NOT to move to DBP, but to move to Freezin instead. You might ask why this is important. The answer is extremely revealing: Gradiant was on Freezinice, and if Gradiant had moved to me, Funnygurl might have been the lead wagon, or in a KitB. roundbox does not want Freezin voters to move, period.
So with this in mind, I'm almost certain that Funnygurl and Roundbox are wolves together.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
The only really weird thing is that funnygurl ultimately landed on me instead of Freezin, but I'm willing to leave that to the chaos of EoD, and that wolves are never able to perfectly execute with 2 minutes remaining
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
Actually, a really funny thought is that funny moved her vote so it literally wasn't a case of every single wolf being on the freezin wagon
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
To clarify, I think it's extremely unlikely that Gradiant and roundbox are ever wolves together. roundbox instructing Gradiant not to move to DBP is not a W/W interaction, but it's also not a T/T interaction, because roundbox is basically telling Gradiant "I'm not moving my vote, so you shouldn't either" -> as a FG defensive play.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
Whether or not I'm right about roundbox, Funnygurl is the absolute best mechanical lynch here. If Funnygurl is a wolf then RB is absolutely a wolf, and I would strongly suggest that the final wolf is on the Freezin wagon too. Exactly one in fatfuck or psychoangel.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
So this is a fun bit of maneuvering too, but it did exactly what needed to. It stole STORN'S and FREEZIN'S vote off of FG and on to me. That is the only thing that needed to happen to keep FG alive, and it allowed roundbox to move to freezin.
Funnygurl was posed to have 5 votes, which could have put her in KITB which was too risky. So Funnygurl moved her vote off of Freezin as a gamble, initially putting her at a +2/+1 lead on freezin, instead of +1/0. But she convinced Storn and Freezin to swap OFF of herself, bringing her to 0/-1, and when roundbox swapped back to freezin, it created -1/-2 against freezin, which guaranteed her survival.
There you go. Game is 2/3 solved
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
I called in sick to work and have been in bed all day, but I had to wake up and force myself to take my meds (and also join my FF14 static) so that's why I'm on right now
I'll be awake a little longer to do FF14 dailies and read today's phase but as of this post nobody is alive to talk to besides roundbox. In the worst case, tonight might end up being the last you hear of me before the phase ends tomorrow, so I strongly, STRONGLY advise you to reread Haku and FG and consider my argument in light of what you find
Even if there are some fuzzy parts of my logic, resolving Freezin's counterwagon is the statistically best play. The last time FG was a counterwagon I let her live until the end of the game and she was a wolf that ended up winning. Her being a ??? for so long is detrimental to town, and you do NOT want to be in a MYLO/LYLO situation with her in it.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
Regarding the third wolf:
I'll have to admit that even as of today I've only read 2/3~ or so of the entire thread, so I have seen almost nothing from psycho. I previously had a town read on fatfuck and in the absence of new information he'd be a low priority for me. In the crazy world that fatfuck and psycho are both town, I guess look at Gradiant/storn. I think this is impossible though.
Once FG and RB are down, psycho > fatfuck >> grad/storn
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
Obligatory:
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 192: Sunfan's Cool Game Game Thread
I think I can guarantee that my theory is right here. Consider EoD again. Specifically:
There's a glaring contradiction here. Remember how roundbox originally was going to vote for me? And how he had me as scummy but somehow landed on freezinice.
If these two weren't paired together, wouldn't it make more sense for roundbox to vote for ME instead of for freezin? After all, his actual scumlean (me) is gaining traction in a CFD. Why swap to Freezin instead?
It's easy---- roundbox needed to guarantee that "somebody" that wasn't FG was going to get majority. By roundbox's own words "DBP should be the lynch", but his actions say "I can't take my vote away from Freezin because that puts FG at risk."
伊如何です、皆様方？
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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