TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I was leaning that way, yeah - I had a slightly earlier post where I said I was thinking either MN or blind. after I was the only remaining vote on MN, I switched onto a relevant wagon.

there were two late votes on blind - I don't even remember whose they were for sure, I wanna say tokzic and botchi - and that sketched me out. I would argue that my swap was justified.

I can see the logic but I really wish you hadn't

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I'm still not hearing a reason why you forced kitb at the very end of the phase, only flimsy justification

again, could you elaborate on exactly why a KITB is inherently worse for town than a plurality lynch?

had there not been two late votes, I would've stayed on blind - again, forcing a KITB. if there's a wolf in that pair (who at this point would have to be blind), anyone who says I'm a wolf believes that I would bus him *only enough to put him in a KITB*

that is pretty farfetched.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I can see the logic but I really wish you hadn't

this can be resolved very easily.

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

again, could you elaborate on exactly why a KITB is inherently worse for town than a plurality lynch?

had there not been two late votes, I would've stayed on blind - again, forcing a KITB. if there's a wolf in that pair (who at this point would have to be blind), anyone who says I'm a wolf believes that I would bus him *only enough to put him in a KITB*

that is pretty farfetched.

because KITBs make it a flip of a coin and purely based on town/wolf ratio the odds are against that

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

loooool I see blind here now

I'm going to sleep

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

and you're convinced those wagons weren't v/v because...?

I feel more uneasy about danceguy after that last-minute vote on Storn with no words in it, especially after I got the impression he was more into a blind lynch (note: i have only skimmed today's posts, please don't hate me if i'm wrong about this).

But danceguy has been towntelling really hard for me up until that point, and if it turns out blind and storn are both town then there's no reason for a red to do what he did.

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

again, could you elaborate on exactly why a KITB is inherently worse for town than a plurality lynch?

had there not been two late votes, I would've stayed on blind - again, forcing a KITB. if there's a wolf in that pair (who at this point would have to be blind), anyone who says I'm a wolf believes that I would bus him *only enough to put him in a KITB*

that is pretty farfetched.

i have less issue with the fact that it's a kitb and more that you popped in at the last possible second for the switch

letting fate decide who gets lynched is inherently worse than a majority lynch because it increases the chance of a mislynch, especially if it's between a wolf and a town

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

because KITBs make it a flip of a coin

agreed

and purely based on town/wolf ratio the odds are against that

ok, I might see where you're coming from.

but, I still disagree. so, in terms of probability:

let's say you have a random d0 lynch, no KITB. odds of hitting a wolf are 4/12, or 1/3.

let's say you have a random d0 lynch, and it's a KITB.
uhhhhh
I think it's the exact same odds?


lurker please help w/ math

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

agreed



ok, I might see where you're coming from.

but, I still disagree. so, in terms of probability:

let's say you have a random d0 lynch, no KITB. odds of hitting a wolf are 4/12, or 1/3.

let's say you have a random d0 lynch, and it's a KITB.
uhhhhh
I think it's the exact same odds?


lurker please help w/ math

no, my point is by adding another player into the pool you're more likely adding a town than wolf

so if you pick a random player, regardless of alignment

now add in another player, you probably added a town

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

i have less issue with the fact that it's a kitb and more that you popped in at the last possible second for the switch

two people popped in at the second-to-last possible second to put votes on the second lead wagon. context is important.

letting fate decide who gets lynched is inherently worse than a majority lynch because it increases the chance of a mislynch, especially if it's between a wolf and a town

again with this probability talk that I'm just not understanding. can someone spell this out for me?

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

no, my point is by adding another player into the pool you're more likely adding a town than wolf

so if you pick a random player, regardless of alignment

now add in another player, you probably added a town

I think you're missing the other side of the coin.

pick a first player, assume they're town; no KITB, they get lynched

now add in another player. you may have add a wolf.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

have added*
fuk

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

there are 4 wolves and 12 town

adding a second player to a lynch possibility makes it exceedingly more likely that a town is going to get lynched over a wolf just due to the numbers

[blindreper1179]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

What the FUCK is it with people wanting to try to Lynch me when I'm not around. Sorry I was busy today my bad. Day Zero isn't my best phase, I become more relevant as the phases go by.

AA, fuck you especially because I am excited to play this setup but that's not going to change how I play.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I need to see the numbers, or I'm not going to get it