TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

i think I'm done arguing with you if you're going to be an ass about it

sorry. I honestly thought you were being intentionally rude by being terse and not explaining anything to the point where someone who doesn't already get what you're trying to say would get it.

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

sorry. I honestly thought you were being intentionally rude by being terse and not explaining anything to the point where someone who doesn't already get what you're trying to say would get it.

i am exceedingly tired and was doing my best to explain the statistics behind it, sorry if I came off like that as it was not my intention at all

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

np np

[botchi246]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I like makilaz

[botchi246]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Based on this mislynch who are you side eyeing

[lurker]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

ok fuck you kids i'm back

probability of a randomly selected player being a wolf: 1/4

number of pairs of players: 16*15/2 = 120
number of pairs of one human and one wolf: 4*12 = 48
number of pairs of wolves: 4*3/2 = 6
probability of a member of a randomly selected pair of players being a wolf: (48/2+6)/120 = 1/4

none of you know probability

[lurker]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

anyone arguing "we had better odds than 1/4 because we have information" is a lunatic

[lurker]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

there are 4 wolves and 12 town

adding a second player to a lynch possibility makes it exceedingly more likely that a town is going to get lynched over a wolf just due to the numbers

literally the exact opposite of what i just said

..

[lurker]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

no, my point is by adding another player into the pool you're more likely adding a town than wolf

so if you pick a random player, regardless of alignment

now add in another player, you probably added a town

the first player you picked is exactly as likely to be town you fucking hypocrite

[lurker]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

saying a random lynch candidate is more likely to be town since there's more town is meaningless because lynch candidates are not random

for all intents and purposes i consider all lynch candidates to be random regardless of information

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

and I still want him dead

now I"m really going to sleep, peace

And yet I still see you itt

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Wolf

[botchi246]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Wolf

A little convenient rb, don't you think

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

A little convenient rb, don't you think

Hmm?