TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

all things being equal any given lynch has a 1/4 chance of being a wolf and a 3/4 chance of being a town

you roll that dice a second time and the odds don't get any better

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I think you're missing the other side of the coin.

pick a first player, assume they're town; no KITB, they get lynched

now add in another player. you may have add a wolf.

obviously as the number of towns/wolves gets more balanced it's better, but let's look at it before the lynch happened

4 wolf, 12 town

pick a player, let's say you pick a wolf

now add in another player, 80% chance you add a town

if you pick a town the odds are slightly less bad, only 11/15 chance of adding another town

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

if you pick a town the odds are slightly less bad, only 11/15 chance of adding another town

well right, but that's 4/15 that you're adding a wolf - how is that so different from the original random pick?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

@everyone's logic

Your assumptions are that it's a uniform probability distribution across all players, and that adding one more to the lynch pool to be selected at random decreases the chance of a wolf being lynched. Which is true --- but don't forget that this isn't a uniform PDF, we have information. In this KitB, there were two strong wolf candidates, so the loss of probability in lynching a wolf by forcing the KitB isn't as pronounced as you're making it seem

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

maybe I'm just dense, but in like 12 years of playing werewolf off and on, no one has ever tried to explain this to me.

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

well right, but that's 4/15 that you're adding a wolf - how is that so different from the original random pick?

it isn't, it's just random picking is bad and kitbing here is like adding another random pick

@everyone's logic

Your assumptions are that it's a uniform probability distribution across all players, and that adding one more to the lynch pool to be selected at random decreases the chance of a wolf being lynched. Which is true --- but don't forget that this isn't a uniform PDF, we have information. In this KitB, there were two strong wolf candidates, so the loss of probability in lynching a wolf by forcing the KitB isn't as pronounced as you're making it seem

but what dabackpack says is true, I just really wanted blind dead over storn

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

well right, but that's 4/15 that you're adding a wolf - how is that so different from the original random pick?

it's much higher odds that you're grabbing a town and with a kitb you're rolling those odds twice

chances that you have two towns is MUCH higher than the possibility that you have wolves in there, and it's nearly guaranteed at that point to have a town in the mix even if the other is a wolf

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

and I still want him dead

now I"m really going to sleep, peace

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I think it's still always a decrease in probability from a mathematical perspective, but when you add in that this is an informed decision and that other players' behaviors were sketching him out, it's not as malicious as it seems

That said it's still a stupid idea because you almost always want to have control over the lynch if possible.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

I guess I need some statistics tutoring in postgame. and maybe some game theory tutoring, assuming y'all are right and I am wrong.

the fact remains that this is easily resolvable next day phase

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

there are 4 wolves and 12 town

adding a second player to a lynch possibility makes it exceedingly more likely that a town is going to get lynched over a wolf just due to the numbers

saying a random lynch candidate is more likely to be town since there's more town is meaningless because lynch candidates are not random

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

voting at the very end of EOD and forcing a kitb is just a brilliant combination of things you should never do as town, and probably shouldn't do as wolf either because it'll get you killed

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

voting at the very end of EOD and forcing a kitb is just a brilliant combination of things you should never do as town, and probably shouldn't do as wolf either because it'll get you killed

archetypes 101.

if you can show me a theory post on mafiascum making the same point you are making then I will start listening.

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

saying a random lynch candidate is more likely to be town since there's more town is meaningless because lynch candidates are not random

even so the numbers are heavily in favor of the second candidate being town, regardless of what they actually turn out to be

seriously though this was just a terrible idea all around

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

archetypes 101.

if you can show me a theory post on mafiascum making the same point you are making then I will start listening.

i think I'm done arguing with you if you're going to be an ass about it