TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

there's not much to work with here, and i've been busy because my wife and child went out of town on yesterday and as a consequence of having an empty house i took my drinking to glorious new heights.

so here's the thing, cedolad is wolfy because he has made some really dumb comments, but maybe cedolad is the sort of person who just makes stupid comments about shit. he's active as fuck though, and i'm really not worried about him if he were a wolf like i might be in a traditional TWG where i can get return fire from the wolves in the night phase. fuckers can't touch me in this game with my game-winning strat of not-sending-in-a-PM.

in the end, i would kill cedolad if i had the choice to, but am perfectly okay with letting him live for now because he has set a standard for himself of a certain level of activity which is a net benefit to town. though him carte blanche giving me a pass as human when i called him out on his dumb vote must not be forgotten. each of you must remember this for the rest of the game.

The push on kraut is bad. Kraut's wolf game is much more flowery. See the first game of C9++ and see jTWG 59 Back in Black. I was a wolf with him in the latter. Kraut would be a terrible poker player because every time he wears an emotion as an affectation it is just fucking clunky and awkward (sorry bro) and I'm not getting that from him this game. He may be bad at articulating himself and bad at hunting, but that doesn't look like a wolfkraut to me.

really the best choice is netjet, and i wish i could say i came up with this myself but xiz hit the nail on the fuckin' head:

Anyway, I want to say Netjet due to the surprising change in posts since he was first called out. I dunno, it just seems like he is trying to suddenly be 'too involved' with everything.
(Then again I'm new here so I might have no idea what I'm talking about)

While that isn't exactly how I would describe his change in behavior, I would call it a marked change in behavior. And after being called out no less. This fits with the headspace that a wolf must live in, especially in a game with confusing rules and especially in the early game.

Every single TWG is different because sometimes you have someone like me who is a repugnant asshole and makes people who are emotionally sensitive cower. And sometimes you have people like fiction who are mercurial and none of their questions make sense but a wolf feels like there's some sort of trick in there somewhere. And sometimes you have a player like manti who you don't see him saying anything but the fact that you know he's heavily analyzing everything you say makes you worried.

The crowd makes the TWG is what I'm saying, so you can never go into a game having a fully fleshed out gameplan of how you are supposed to behave. If the crowd is collectively stupid and has a learning disability a good wolf should pick up on that and fulfill the role of a leader. If the crowd is rambunctious and fighting a lot a good wolf tries to be a calm and centered diplomat. If the entire crowd is quiet a good wolf needs to pretend to promote activity.

And all of that is extremely similar to what humans do, the only difference is that wolves have to go through quite a few more thought experiments in their head to reach the same conclusion that blossoms naturally for humans, and as such you can anticipate wolves in the early game to be more fluid in their tone and behavior because they are trying to feel out the town.

It was never that netjet wasn't posting, it's that his contributions through day one were all jokes and fluff, and as soon as someone called him out on it he suddenly changed his tone entirely and began actively trying to appear helpful. Nothing he's posted has been helpful, so maybe he's stupid or something. But the thread that ties behavior 1 and behavior 2 together is the phrase "actively trying to appear".

I give you the wanted poster. Town, will you give me your rope?

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

I've only read 1/3 of the above post so far. still reading.

it's funny though... I was thinking Kraut x Netjet


Xiz gets Rookie of the Year if you guys are right.

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

That is actually true now that you put it like that V. I mean he only does that when he was a wolf tbh. I mean, if he wasn't an arsonist (from your logic), then he would continue with his nonchalant behaviour, correct?

Also, I genuinely thought that kraut's statement on jrodd & tps was tbh a bit of derp town than arsonist.

As for Mr. Cubone, not sure about him, keeping my vote on him, would like to see his input on night 1 and current players so far. Once I get a satisfied response from him then I'll move on to Netjet.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Nice post, V. You gave everyone else food for thought and a call to action.

I disagree on cedo. My TWGradar detects too much genuine effort from him. That's a moot point if you think we should wait until later to decide, anyway.


post on Kraut incoming

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

The push on kraut is bad. Kraut's wolf game is much more flowery. See the first game of C9++ and see jTWG 59 Back in Black. I was a wolf with him in the latter. Kraut would be a terrible poker player because every time he wears an emotion as an affectation it is just fucking clunky and awkward (sorry bro) and I'm not getting that from him this game. He may be bad at articulating himself and bad at hunting, but that doesn't look like a wolfkraut to me.

I think Kraut's game has been flowery. Kraut has been my main suspicion since his very first post (during Night 1).

cedolad, dAnceguy, I think there is one tiny, tiny, tiny flaw in your plans.

It doesn't do much to stop the Arsonists.

After all, one of the ways they have to win is to burn every building there is. There is almost no chance for them to win only using this way, but that doesn't mean they can't focus on setting fire to the houses that are empty, that way they staying safe...

...the only progress the townsfolk would have is that they seer one person Green. Which isn't bad, I guess.

It is true that with all these plans, the amount of deaths that happen will be lower, but is that very good? A bigger suspect list may be a disadvantage in the future. The Arsonists could hide better, even with the specials coming out.

"tiny, tiny, tiny flaw" does not fit with two paragraphs of disagreement.

I'm not trying to point out that Kraut objected to my ~brilliant plans~ (which I realized were dumb after further consideration). Rather, the way Kraut worded this post seems weirdly placating. This post reminds me of my post about freaky's "Vigi/SK" plan during the second C9++ game here. I was a wolf.

burn the grocery store over and over

Either way, I suppose that gathering green seerings is a very good idea! It may as well help clearing some of the players.

there's a joke followed by some fluff

Having the most posts doesn't mean a thing, but I'll admit cedolad really made an effort trying to create a good strategy to give the town as much advantage as possible. I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt for now.

However...I think I missed something. Why was cedolad being voted, again?

Town lean(?) on cedo when there was immediate pressure on cedo. Only this post has made me feel less confident about my read on Kraut.

I doubt they had a thought in mind when picking a building last night. I'm sure it was a random choice by the Arsonists.

complete fluff

V seems to be his usual cranky self. However, his behavior in past games doesn't really matter. He has enough ability to act the same, whether it is as human or wolf. What seems relatively odd is his last of...activity so far, in terms of getting at everybody's necks and pointing suspicions around. So far it has been...one...in 48 hours. I would have expected more from him.

I think everyone here knows that, regardless of role, V would be active if at all possible. The fact that Kraut cited V's lack of posts in his read comes off as total BS to me, which would make sense if Kraut hadn't actually tried to read anyone. I think Kraut knows better.

Zoshi seems to have taken as his technique the whole "PRESSURE VOTES", judging by games I have been playing with him, including another one at the same time than this. He is also making pressure votes over there. Other than his pressuring, there isn't much about him. I suppose I would like to hear if he has something to say right now.

cedolad has made a nice effort during Night 1 to come with the best strategy for the townies. And, while no concrete strategy was reached, I see his efforts as true and towny. He has been investing a lot of time on this. I would say that he is the player I trust the most right now.

Jrodd and TPS...I have no opinion about them. Kinda blank. I wish I could talk with them through AIM

And you, Danceguy...hmmmm...well, while you did discuss a lot with cedolad in Night 1. However, I can't say I trust you as I do with cedolad. I can't pinpoint exactly why, but I feel compelled to be wary of you.

Now, I find it somewhat odd that yoman is...well...not posting. I'm afraid that this may be an Under the Radar style of play. This wouldn't be the first time yoman tries to pass under the radar as a wolf, or in this case, arsonist.

There's the rest of that post.
(I asked for reads on these specific people. In retrospect, I wish I had asked for reads on all players.)

Kraut's "suspicion" of YMIA seems forced, in my opinion. YMIA had made 0 posts since the start of the Day phase up to that post.

Hmmmmm...okay.

V as Town. Zoshi as Wolf. cedolad as Town. Jrodd as...uh...Human? Tps as Human. Danceguy as Wolf.

These don't seem to fully match up with Kraut's explanations above. Tps as town, suddenly? Zoshi as red due to "pressure votes" which Kraut says Zoshi has used in a concurrent game? I feel like these reads are fake.

post on Netjet soon

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

vvvvv Press the button to see all Netjet posts AND my analysis. wo0t vvvvv

bar hopping? count me in

joke post

literally the best

joke post

To be fair, those were both during Night 1. Still, though, there's no display of effort.

-----

Immediately after being mentioned (but not voted) by cedolad:

That's not really fair at all, cedo. If you knew how I played twg you would know that I'm not the most active poster in the world. Since the first night of the game generally doesn't provide much information to go on, I was waiting for the news to see which building the arsonists hit. Unfortunately (but also fortunately) no one died from the burning, which sucks for trying to figure out how to proceed. Like James said we have little info to go on at this point, so we'll have to try to get a bearing on where to go next.

lots of words & a weak excuse.


Immediately after I placed a vote on Netjet:

You're right, I'm going to make sure I contribute more this game than I did last game. It's not in the spirit of TWG for me or anyone else to be inactive at a such a critical point - we all have to work towards figuring out where the arsonists are going to go for next, and plan a good strategy that will work best for all of us.

attempt to placate (and admittedly, it worked on me)

Biggest thing - fireman, don't claim. You saw what happened when zoshi did it in the other thread: you'll get roleblocked every single night if you do (most likely) by the arsonist roleblocker. The strategies of assigning people to houses (both dance's and tps' ideas) are really good but they really heavily rely on trust and cooperation, something of which isn't really guaranteed in the beginning part of the game (in this game the first two phases).

I'm still trying to wrap my head around what the best way to go about this is... one of the leading strategies IMO was what dance said, to order the fireman to one designated house and get everyone else to randomly disperse into the remaining houses. It would keep the fireman safe and would allow the police to seer the rest. We have to make sure that everyone doesn't clump up into one house (ie. only 3 per house like tps(?) suggested) so the least amount of townies will die if the house was targeted.

all agreeable statements. to me, the above quote is the entirety of Netjet's positive activity. everything else has been either neutral or defensive. Seemingly pro-town discussion of Night strategies would be easy for reds to fake, because purposefully anti-town discussion would be far too obvious.

thank you yosh for setting an ending time for the day, 38 hours is a bit long IMO haha. I don't have much to contribute at this point, but good on you dance for trying to dig deep for more insight into the player makeup and trying to spur activity.

Fluff. Overly friendly. Also, townies would agree that 38-hour Day phases would be too short, especially without any external communication. I don't think Netjet intentionally advocated for shorter Day phases, but I don't think he realized how unreasonable this statement would be from a townie's perspective.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Netjet!




Votecount, please?

[Netjet!]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Kraut's posts have been made up of unrelated subjects and pretty big contradictions from the start. His reads were vague at best and didn't really contribute to the game, because most of them were along the lines of "I have no opinion about them. Kinda blank". In his readings he seems to be suspicious of pretty much everyone except for cedolad. In the same breath, he also came to cedo's defense when pressure votes were put on him at the start of the day phase, which doesn't look right.

He's also been mentioning about his lack of access to aim conversations:

I wish I could talk with them through AIM

There are a few things that the thread doesn't replace. My complaints against this method isn't the lack of direct conversations. It is that, in the thread, one doesn't have a measurable way to see how much a player thinks before replying. One can't apply as much pressure in the confrontations. One can't see a more genuine reaction from people.

It's fairly suspicious that he's been mentioning this relatively often. It doesn't really sit right with me that he's been very vague with all of his readings and the conclusions he has come to. Most of his replies have been following with the majority opinion, adding unrelated things to the thread, or have been weak attempts at poking holes in strategies while also attempting to appease others.

[YoshL]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

The votecount stands as such
yo man - 1
xiz - 1
kraut - 2
netjat - 3

[Krauthammer]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

"tiny, tiny, tiny flaw" does not fit with two paragraphs of disagreement.

I'm not trying to point out that Kraut objected to my ~brilliant plans~ (which I realized were dumb after further consideration). Rather, the way Kraut worded this post seems weirdly placating. This post reminds me of my post about freaky's "Vigi/SK" plan during the second C9++ game here. I was a wolf.

Your playstyle and my playstyle are different. What may apply to you doesn't mean that may apply to myself. You're applying your own past wolf behavior on me, which is dangerous, as this may lead to delusions, if town, or may lead to a half-assed lynching, as human.

Reconsider.

I think everyone here knows that, regardless of role, V would be active if at all possible. The fact that Kraut cited V's lack of posts in his read comes off as total BS to me, which would make sense if Kraut hadn't actually tried to read anyone. I think Kraut knows better.

If it is true, it can be hardly called "BS". And, as you said yourself, Vendetta would be active if at all possible. And oh my! He had two posts in a day phase that almost had 48 hours! This is hardly "being active if at all possible".

Now, what makes you reject something that is easily verifiable and noticeable as "BS" and use it to say that I didn't make a read on people? If you're going to reject one of the few pieces of evidence around, then you aren't going to get anywhere, wolf-hunting wise.

Kraut's "suspicion" of YMIA seems forced, in my opinion. YMIA had made 0 posts since the start of the Day phase up to that post.

Forced or not, as I said before, if Arsonist, then this wouldn't be the first time yoman tries to use UTR. Sure, this time it looks like it was true inactivity, but eh. My thoughts at that point still stand.

These don't seem to fully match up with Kraut's explanations above. Tps as town, suddenly? Zoshi as red due to "pressure votes" which Kraut says Zoshi has used in a concurrent game? I feel like these reads are fake.

23 posts from different players later, one page later, and eight hours later, is it that hard to think that one's opinions may not have changed?

It isn't like the second post was an hour later or so. Sure, at least half of those posts were little or completely unrelated to the game itself, but the very few posts made (related to the game), made by the players asked or not, does affect one's perception of the game.

And I still stand for my opinions from fifteen hours ago. Zoshi and you are still as Arsonists. Jrodd as whatever I could think. V, cedolad and TPS as town.

-------------------------------------------

Now, I find it somewhat odd and uncharacteristic to vote for Netjet when, at least from my unbiased point of view, you seem to have more solid stuff against me that NetJet. "Fluff posts", as you call them, and lack of activity is what you got against him. Sure, your stuff against me isn't much better, according to my very, very biased opinion, but judging by the amount of confidence you're showing, I really would have expected you to keep your vote on me.

Now I see you vote for NetJet, even before I or him got a chance of defending myself, so it isn't like you can say that a post I created after your accusation made you change your opinion.

I won't complaint if it means that this will mean I won't die in the noose today, but I'm still very curious as to why the change of a target, specially since you seem to consider we both are a team. Wouldn't it not matter which one falls first, if your hypothetical scenario is correct?

So...yes, would you please reply? Why the change of target?

[Krauthammer]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Whooops.

Corrections:

"or may lead to a half-assed lynching, as human."

Replace "human" with "Arsonist"

[cedolad]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Kraut's posts have been made up of unrelated subjects and pretty big contradictions from the start. His reads were vague at best and didn't really contribute to the game, because most of them were along the lines of "I have no opinion about them. Kinda blank". In his readings he seems to be suspicious of pretty much everyone except for cedolad. In the same breath, he also came to cedo's defense when pressure votes were put on him at the start of the day phase, which doesn't look right.

He's also been mentioning about his lack of access to aim conversations:





It's fairly suspicious that he's been mentioning this relatively often. It doesn't really sit right with me that he's been very vague with all of his readings and the conclusions he has come to. Most of his replies have been following with the majority opinion, adding unrelated things to the thread, or have been weak attempts at poking holes in strategies while also attempting to appease others.

Your playstyle and my playstyle are different. What may apply to you doesn't mean that may apply to myself. You're applying your own past wolf behavior on me, which is dangerous, as this may lead to delusions, if town, or may lead to a half-assed lynching, as human.

Reconsider.



If it is true, it can be hardly called "BS". And, as you said yourself, Vendetta would be active if at all possible. And oh my! He had two posts in a day phase that almost had 48 hours! This is hardly "being active if at all possible".

Now, what makes you reject something that is easily verifiable and noticeable as "BS" and use it to say that I didn't make a read on people? If you're going to reject one of the few pieces of evidence around, then you aren't going to get anywhere, wolf-hunting wise.




Forced or not, as I said before, if Arsonist, then this wouldn't be the first time yoman tries to use UTR. Sure, this time it looks like it was true inactivity, but eh. My thoughts at that point still stand.



23 posts from different players later, one page later, and eight hours later, is it that hard to think that one's opinions may not have changed?

It isn't like the second post was an hour later or so. Sure, at least half of those posts were little or completely unrelated to the game itself, but the very few posts made (related to the game), made by the players asked or not, does affect one's perception of the game.

And I still stand for my opinions from fifteen hours ago. Zoshi and you are still as Arsonists. Jrodd as whatever I could think. V, cedolad and TPS as town.

-------------------------------------------

Now, I find it somewhat odd and uncharacteristic to vote for Netjet when, at least from my unbiased point of view, you seem to have more solid stuff against me that NetJet. "Fluff posts", as you call them, and lack of activity is what you got against him. Sure, your stuff against me isn't much better, according to my very, very biased opinion, but judging by the amount of confidence you're showing, I really would have expected you to keep your vote on me.

Now I see you vote for NetJet, even before I or him got a chance of defending myself, so it isn't like you can say that a post I created after your accusation made you change your opinion.

I won't complaint if it means that this will mean I won't die in the noose today, but I'm still very curious as to why the change of a target, specially since you seem to consider we both are a team. Wouldn't it not matter which one falls first, if your hypothetical scenario is correct?

So...yes, would you please reply? Why the change of target?

These two posts seem odd to me.

First and foremost, netjet's read of Kraut is short and seems to be lacking. His only two solid points just seem to be sloppy play made by Kraut. While the pressure is building on him, netjet tries to move the spotlight over to Kraut.

But the next post by Kraut is what really comes off as odd. After Kraut defends himself from dance, he jumps to defend netjet. That's what I really don't get, if netjet has a vote on Kraut, why would Kraut still be concerned with what dance is saying if Kraut has 2 votes on him. After dance posted his analysis of Kraut, dance posted an analysis of netjet and changed his vote. To me this is weird. Not only that, but netjet completely ignored dance's post and vote change. This feels like a chainsaw defense type deal going on here. netjet ignores accusations and pressure, Kraut (arsonist buddy) quickly defends him, striding to get dance to change his vote back to Kraut.

So continuing on with my netjet thing:

That's not really fair at all, cedo. If you knew how I played twg you would know that I'm not the most active poster in the world. Since the first night of the game generally doesn't provide much information to go on, I was waiting for the news to see which building the arsonists hit. Unfortunately (but also fortunately) no one died from the burning, which sucks for trying to figure out how to proceed. Like James said we have little info to go on at this point, so we'll have to try to get a bearing on where to go next.

This is weak. A very weak excuse. netjet I know you play twg, and right now, you're acting exactly as you did in the first game I've played and you were a wolf. UTR until someone mentions you, and then you build weak analysis on another player hoping to get the pressure of you.

So netjet, how do you feel about the current accusations on yourself? And Kraut for that matter?

[cedolad]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

But the next post by Kraut is what really comes off as odd. After Kraut defends himself from dance, he jumps to defend netjet. That's what I really don't get, if netjet has a vote on Kraut, why would Kraut still be concerned with what dance is saying if Kraut has 2 votes on him. He should be more concerned with netjet than dance at this point. After dance posted his analysis of Kraut, dance posted an analysis of netjet and changed his vote. To me this is weird. Not only that, but netjet completely ignored dance's post and vote change, and continued to try to move the spotlight to Kraut This feels like a chainsaw defense type deal going on here. netjet ignores accusations and pressure, Kraut (arsonist buddy) quickly defends him, striding to get dance to change his vote back to Kraut.

bolds are fixes. so tired.

[yo man im awesome]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

netjet, you just literally followed up on the Kraut bandwagon, spitting up the same information we've already heard countless times, fluffing it up a little bit. Get outa here.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

If it is true, it can be hardly called "BS". And, as you said yourself, Vendetta would be active if at all possible. And oh my! He had two posts in a day phase that almost had 48 hours! This is hardly "being active if at all possible".

"if at all possible" meaning "if he had the opportunity to view the thread and make posts." Regardless of his role, if V weren't posting, we could all safely assume that life got in the way for him. Including V's lack of activity in your read tells me you either have a poorly formed read or you never attempted to make an actual read. I'm leaning toward the latter.

23 posts from different players later, one page later, and eight hours later, is it that hard to think that one's opinions may not have changed?

I'm seeing 6.5 hours and 17 posts later. Ok that's a nitpick on my part lol. valid point.

And I still stand for my opinions from fifteen hours ago. Zoshi and you are still as Arsonists. Jrodd as whatever I could think. V, cedolad and TPS as town.

I hope everyone else saves this post somewhere.

Now, I find it somewhat odd and uncharacteristic to vote for Netjet when, at least from my unbiased point of view, you seem to have more solid stuff against me that NetJet. "Fluff posts", as you call them, and lack of activity is what you got against him.

"Fluff posts" are a pretty solid Arsonist tell in D1. "Oh, I don't have anything to contribute, but I'm going to remind everyone that I'm here." Townies have almost nothing to gain by making such posts; reds have everything to gain.

I won't complaint if it means that this will mean I won't die in the noose today, but I'm still very curious as to why the change of a target, specially since you seem to consider we both are a team. Wouldn't it not matter which one falls first, if your hypothetical scenario is correct?

you&Netjet was just a quick thought I had, not a confident hypothesis which would determine the rest of my actions.

So...yes, would you please reply? Why the change of target?

1) Xiz and V made good points
2) I already suspected Netjet based on post 178
3) if Netjet flips red, I can clear Xiz and V as 99% town, which would be huge. if you flip red, I can only clear YMIA as like 75% town, which would be much less helpful for my reads
4) Netjet wagon has more traction. only 7 players have voted. instalynch would help avoid phantoms. I haven't thought about whether this game format makes phantoms more or less of a hindrance to town. gonna think about that now