TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

[yo man im awesome]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

partner was yoshl, chose trust according to your thing, BDN, received nada

[Guest15937]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Trusted you, BDN, and got nothing.

[yo man im awesome]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

*cough*

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

You ask me wolves are V, BDN, and a mysterious third party who still escapes me.

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Dance was looking pretty human once pressure started on him and those later votes look fishy as fuck to me.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

my read on dance was bad. i'm pretty guilty of tunnelvisioning him for 4 phases. i have this self-conception of being a master at catching behavioral tells and thought i caught a few on dance and then perceived everything about him through that lens. that's a pretty big weakness and might be the final thing that costs us the game today.

we are at a triple lynch-or-lose it appears. this means hold back your votes as long as you can.

tokzic is stupid BDN is our only confirmed human at the moment.

i betrayed raeko last night and she betrayed me back. this was outside the strategy and felt a little disingenious when i trusted her the night before. she was also reluctant to lynch manti and voted danceguy pretty easily. her willingness to kill BDN is also another strange indicator here. BDN is effectively cleared, i questioned danceguy's clearing of him but i don't think for a second that BDN comes across as anything but human.

i see being betrayed in this sense as a wolf move that raeko believed she could get away with because it is the last phase she will have to. just seems sketchy after i trusted her that she is suddenly unwilling to trust me when she also believed dance was a wolf without much hesitation.

kgz is also probably a wolf. he had an excuse for absence but i found it funny that raeko was the one to clear that absence publicly. he contributed in early game regularly but didn't do much wolf-hunting and only showed sudpicion towards dance who i was already displaying sudpicion towards. amongst the more utr players kgz makes the most sense.

don't vote yet. it takes two wrong human votes on someone to lose the game right now.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

look at those diametrically opposed wolf reads

[mellonxcollie]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

i betrayed raeko last night and she betrayed me back. this was outside the strategy and felt a little disingenious when i trusted her the night before. she was also reluctant to lynch manti and voted danceguy pretty easily. her willingness to kill BDN is also another strange indicator here. BDN is effectively cleared, i questioned danceguy's clearing of him but i don't think for a second that BDN comes across as anything but human.

i see being betrayed in this sense as a wolf move that raeko believed she could get away with because it is the last phase she will have to. just seems sketchy after i trusted her that she is suddenly unwilling to trust me when she also believed dance was a wolf without much hesitation.

I appreciate your analysis but the reason I betrayed you is because I've betrayed each of my partners this game. I was hoping that you would catch on to this pattern and if you really did trust me, get me a power. That obviously backfired but that was my mindset. It was against "the plan" but the plans have hardly been working this game anyway and I thought it was worth a shot with you, who is the type of player who would probably pick up on those sorts of patterns. Oh well it was worth a try.

My read on BDN has obviously changed since Danceguy's green flip. I will need to do some re-reading and re-analysis. But even then, what makes BDN effectively "cleared"? Am I missing something major? Or are we just hoping that because Danceguy was human that his reads were correct?

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

My read on BDN has obviously changed since Danceguy's green flip. I will need to do some re-reading and re-analysis. But even then, what makes BDN effectively "cleared"? Am I missing something major? Or are we just hoping that because Danceguy was human that his reads were correct?

It was a seer PM that afrobean corroborated that said BDN was human. Dance had no reason to lie and neither did Afrobean and both were fully convinced that this ensured BDN was human.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Betraying every single time seems wolfy tbh. The straightforward honesty about the behavior causes me some cognitive dissonance but the underlying strategy seems pretty pro-wolf.

[mellonxcollie]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

It was a seer PM that afrobean corroborated that said BDN was human. Dance had no reason to lie and neither did Afrobean and both were fully convinced that this ensured BDN was human.

Now that you mention it I actually do remember that. As I said, gotta go back and do some re-reading obviously now knowing that both Danceguy and Arfy were human

Betraying every single time seems wolfy tbh. The straightforward honesty about the behavior causes me some cognitive dissonance but the underlying strategy seems pretty pro-wolf.

The cognitive dissonance might be because it wasn't an underlying strategy. Until the last twilight phase I hadn't thought of it. My previous betrayals were due to either attempting to follow the plan, or because I legitimately did not trust my partner and didn't want to give them a power. When I realized that I had betrayed each time, I thought you might just pick up on it. It was a long shot anyway

[The Blue Blur]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Really hard to be motivated when no one else is.

Okay, I just realized that my initial gambit isn't going to work, because it's vulnerable to wolves stalling out indefinitely. I think I have enough informaion to make a solid decision now, though, so thanks humans.

Guest, I betray you last night, as per the plan. I got a regular seer power, which I can only assume changes into the mandatory seer-a-gram power when used by wolves, in order to prevent them from getting an unfair advantage. Or perhaps under some other unseen conditions.

The point is, i would have had a resuLt to report...if only I hadn't been roleblocked last night. I don't I think I need to tell you who would roleblock a confirmed human. Now to narrow down possible culprits.

YoshL and Tokzic are keeping tight-lipped. But I have enough info to fit them into the big picture anyway. Of course no one is going to admit to the roleblocking. But the possiblities give me hope for a human victory coming out of this mess.

Dilemmas last twilight:
Kigzy: forever alone (no power?)
Mellon(B)-V(B)
YoshL(B)-YMIA(T)
Tokzic(T?)-Arfybarf(B)
Me(B)-Guest(T)

this means possible power holders, other than me, are KgZ, V, and YoshL.

KgZ's no power claim is an easy out for a wolf in his position, because it is up to a coin flip, not subject to the burden of proof via anyone else, and has no previous points to reference due to his absence the previous day.

YoshL is still in Riots slot and has been very UTR the whole game, with nothing of real use to the human cause to my memory. Unlike Kgz, he has no excuses, and yet I remember very few of the people left here raising anythinh against him.

While Tokzic is still suspicious, no matter what he did in the last dilemma, he would not have gotten ae power. Mellon is in a similar positiin.

So thats my take on the situation. Honestly I'm willing to stake the game on a yoshl lynch.

[The Blue Blur]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

EBWOPÇ forgot to remove V from power holders after I realized later that he would not get a power.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

BDN, YoshL was an early jump on the manti wagon, which would be somewhat weird for a wolf to do. Since you're the only confirmed human I advise you to review your read there. Maybe a thorough re-reading of the thread before you commit to things like "Honestly I'm willing to stake the game on a yoshl lynch."

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

seriously? its lynch-or-lose and the phase ends tomorrow...