I've been thinking about it, and the arguments made against devonin and his defenses of those arguments balance out for me. In the end, I only find two things that stick out in my mind that make me vote for devonin:
1. The things he mentions in this post
Originally posted by devonin
There was something like an 83% chance I was green. If Lito seered the MW and said green, he'd be right, and that would be one way to establish that he was the real seer, but it also would have increased the chances of a screwup outing the both of them (Lito's actual "screw-up" that is busily screwing me over not withstanding)
By taking a chance on -me- that I was green, Lito would a) have an actual human believeing he was the seer and b) have an actual human that would argue the living crap out of his side being correct believe he was the seer.
He got himself a strong ally by taking a chance on me, and the way everyone is going "Oh yeah, Lito's experienced enough to try faking seer" I assume he was also experienced enough to take a 13% chance of being wrong, in order to get someone who would actually genuinely be defending him.
Of course as an added bonus for Lito, the mere fact that I was defending him so strongly means that even if he got found out and lynched, it would be incredibly easy to get me taken down with him.
You were aware of the chances that Lito would "seer" a green correctly without actually seering them. You used this as an argument of why you were so inclined to defend him. HOWEVER, this same fact can be used as to why you would -not- be defending him. You agree that a wolf faking seer has a good chance of picking someone at random to be green, and I'm sure that this scenario had crossed your mind before you started believing Lito to be the true seer. Why then, were you quick to defend Lito to the fullest from his "seering"?
2. (directed toward devonin) Arguments have been made against you, and you've defended them pretty well. However, there is still one issue to go over: who else are we going to vote for instead? You can convince us all you want that you're human, but without an alternative, in the end everyone will still vote for you, because no one else is made out to be any more suspicious. Honestly, I've tried to find alternatives, but the evidence I have is much more lacking or nonexistent compared to the evidence others have on you.
You're simply misinformed or lying if you want to claim that I was refusing to consider the possibility that Lito was a wolf. Nobody could provide me with any compelling evidence in support of Mega or in opposition to Lito.
Let's do some addressing of my own.
1/ "OMG Dev supported Lito"
Okay, when Lito and Mega both came out with seer claims, more than three people sided with Lito. This means more people than just wolves sided with lito. Further, if Lito was any kind of smart at least one wolf would have been told to oppose Lito to avoid suspicion, so even more humans supported Lito.
In fact, Lito was convincing enough to enough people as the real seer that the Guardian came out to him. That's right, a BLUE outed himself to Lito (not just secretly guarded lito) because he believed that Lito was the actual seer.
Add to this the fact that Lito correctly seered me Green, while mega seered "The Psychic, but I can't tell you who it was, and no they won't come public to confirm it"
Are you seriously going to fault me for believing that Lito was the seer?
Let's go over that again: "Several humans believed Lito was the seer; The Guardian believed Lito was the seer; Lito Seered me correctly" Are you seriously going to tell me I'm so much smarter than you guys that I alone should have "seen through" Lito out of everyone who believed in him?
And Manti, was I so unreasonable when you came to me with proof that Lito was a wolf? Quite the contrary, I discussed and discarded the possible alternatives, and sided with you. I voted to lynch Lito, when Jugglin seered green, I voted to lynch him too. I've done pretty much nothing but help you figure out what is implied by each of the possible situations involving who is a wolf.
2/ Jugglin defended Dev, Juggling was a wolf, therefore Dev is a wolf.
Manti, when the evidence to prove Lito was a wolf was presented to me, it was stated by that person that -you- believed I was a human, or at least that I was more likely human than wolf. Does that mean you're a wolf too? Xception is one of the most vocal "Lito and Dev are wolves" people and started out stating that he was more convinced that Lito was the seer than that Mega was the seer. Is Xception a wolf?
Kilik started off voting to lynch me today, actually took the time to talk with me and hear what I had to say, and switched his vote off of me. Is Kilik a wolf?
Maybe jugglin supported me because I'm a wolf, maybe jugglin supported me because I was arguing for Lito being seer whether I was human or a wolf. Lito defended people who aren't dead, so did jugglin, so have I, if every person we sided with in the game was a wolf, we'd have 8 wolves.
3/ Dev said he would be bad at games based around lying
I don't even get how this is evidence for anything. I started off the game saying I was probably going to do poorly, and here's me, a human being lynched on day 3 because I've actually been telling the truth to people instead of constantly manipulating and lying. Sounds like I'm actually bad at liar's games. I don't see why I needed to have been a wolf or a blue to evaluate the type of game this was and make a judgement about my own abilities to play it.
When you tell someone the truth and they say "I don't believe you" there's only so much you can do in response to that. When "lying to say what they expect to hear" isn't something you're going to do, you should be pretty secure to say "I'm not good at this type of game"
You agree that a wolf faking seer has a good chance of picking someone at random to be green, and I'm sure that this scenario had crossed your mind before you started believing Lito to be the true seer. Why then, were you quick to defend Lito to the fullest from his "seering"?
You covered your own question fairly well in your second question to me. You're going to lynch me anyway because even though I can defend the accusations against me, I'm not pointing a finger myself at someone else. The only alternative to Lito being the seer was thoroughly questionable right up until Manti came out that the psychic had come out to him and proved it to me.
Until then, Lito was the more reasonable sounding seer, and multiple other people agreed with me then. I just had the benefit of knowing I was actually a green to make me more inclined to stay with Lito since the first alternative to lito being the seer was "Lito -and- Dev are both wolves" and since I know I'm not a wolf, that wasn't a viable alternative.
Proving that Lito wasn't the seer was never actually accomplished by anybody. They just -did- prove that Megamon -was- the real seer which negated Lito's claim.
As for lack of an alternative. I'm not going to point a finger at someone else because I simply don't know who to point to. It would be disingenuous to make a case for lynching someone else when I have barley even inklings of who the other two wolves are.
I've had to spend so much of the past day and more on the constant defensive addressing the accusations against -me- that I haven't exactly had time to go asking people for logs and trawling through the thread looking for clues.
What gets me is that this whole bandwagon of lynching Dev seems so widespread that even as you admit that I've done a good job addressing the concerns about me, nobody ELSE even seems to be bothering to look for alternatives.
If you've already decided my guilt and are going to lynch me, why make me waste my time giving you perfectly logical and reasonable explanations if you're going to just ignore them?
Also, manti, my response to Mega's post was a frigging joke dude. I had and discussed all my reasoning behind preferring Lito as a seer over Mega in the thread and in chats that you weren't part of, so while I understand that you weren't there to see them, to try saying that my poking fun at his poor phrasing was "my only proof" that he was a wolf is just ridiculous, and I think you know it.
A hole. A hole. A hole. Devonin fell in a hole. As he's trying to climb out kekeb sneaks up behind him. Completely unaware of his stalker- he claws at the edge of the hole. Others crowd around him; Xception, kilik, sully, and manti. BynaryFission draws his sword and presses it to devonin's throat. He asks why he shamed his people? Devonin replies that he is sorry, and that he deserves to die. DrKirth wants to give him another chance, but megamon88 won't allow it. Him and Myst get sc979 to drag devonin from the hole. Jokim forms a rope from some tethered bamboo grass and they place it around devonin's neck, one end chafing his throat the other scratchin a branch on the tree. They sit him roughly on another branch, lower down. "Any last words?" says Myst with a smirk. A tear rolls down devonin's cheek and he replies with a shaky voice "I am sorry. And I will die like a man. A SAMUR-" Sully pushes him roughly off the tree branch and his neck snaps.
Day 3 is over. The current phase is night 4. All necessary messages should be sent before 7:00 PM friday evening.
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