Re: TWG LXI2: Back to our Roots
I'm going to completely disregard and post that rzr makes, even though it seems we're coming to the same conclusion, because I do not want to be associated with someone that might already have some wolfish qualities due to his own mistakes. I'm going to share with you how the wolves are going to run this game, with the given of flaw and argo as wolves.
The age-old plan for the Seer/guardian is tried and true because it gives the best probability for the seer to stay alive. Seer comes out only during the Day and not at Night. Why? Because even if the seer does come out at Night and asks for a guardian to guard him, a counter-claim by a wolf can be made and reduce the chance of survival. Now here's the scenario for that possibility:
Player 1 is a wolf. He comes out as seer. Player 2 is the real seer and comes out. Player 3 is the Guardian and has to decide on whom to guard.
a) Wolves decide to side with the fake seer and kill off a fellow wolf. If the guardian successfully guards Player 1, he would more than likely trust player 1 more, since that person was targeted for a wolf kill. If the guardian fails to guard player 1, more than likely the guard will think that the real seer died and would question who to guard.
b) Wolves decide to side with the real seer and kill the seer. If the guardian successfully guards Player 2, he would also trust this player more but will also trust whoever the seer trusts. And since the wolves stick to Player 2, they would work alongside with the seer, kill their fellow wolf, and inevitably the seer/guardian as well. If the guardian fails to guard Player 2 (this is what we DO NOT want to happen EVER), he will trust Player 1 more (the wolf) and wolf victory will be swift.
If I haven't made myself clear yet: argo and pnt, whoever is the real seer, is stupid for coming out/counter-claiming. The situation we have right now is type a.
After my post, I thought it would be obvious, given the facts, number, and scenarios, that the seer DOES NOT come out AT ALL, even if there is a fake claim. The real seer should have waited 'till Day to say, "Look, I'm the seer, I waited until Day because blahblahblah..." With this understanding, Argo is either a) a wolf, b) retarded, c) stupid, or d) blind and oblivious to my tl;dr post.
Why a veteran of TWG suggested the idea to -not- do the tried and true strategy that jwc posted confounded me. It was the best plan and you know it, flaw. The suggestion of your idea gave the humans a win/loss (i.e. a wolf for a blue). You know quite well that without a seer this game is "in the bag" for the wolves: there wouldn't be a possibility for anyone to know who is who, really, and the wolves would continue to play the charade. Also, the sheer presence of the plan you suggested paved the way for a wolf, Argo, to come and claim seer and make the rest of the humans think it was okay. "Lol, flaw said this let's follow it k? k."
Player 1 = Argo; [one] of the wolves = flaw; Player 2 = pnt
What has happened is a). Also, the guardian failed to guard Player 1 and since Player 2 is also dead, we can assume the real seer is dead along with a wolf. We are in a ****load of trouble. At this point, anyone could be a wolf and suspicion can only be arisen through AIM. Gj, you've all fallen for the trick (I'm excluding myself because I was afk ;_
.
I suggest that everyone who is online now, or will view this later, send me a message. Thanks.
Oh before I go I would like to mention this: I really didn't skip over rzr's post: I've read them (just now but w/e). Although there's a difference in wording, we have similar ideas. Whether you decide to think both of us as wolves, one of us as wolves, or both of us human is entirely up to you. I would like to say, though, that I've had no contact with him at all after the re-roll and that I don't support all of his ideas. I know that his argument may seem a bit wavered, but it's there underneath fluff.
I'm going to completely disregard and post that rzr makes, even though it seems we're coming to the same conclusion, because I do not want to be associated with someone that might already have some wolfish qualities due to his own mistakes. I'm going to share with you how the wolves are going to run this game, with the given of flaw and argo as wolves.
The age-old plan for the Seer/guardian is tried and true because it gives the best probability for the seer to stay alive. Seer comes out only during the Day and not at Night. Why? Because even if the seer does come out at Night and asks for a guardian to guard him, a counter-claim by a wolf can be made and reduce the chance of survival. Now here's the scenario for that possibility:
Player 1 is a wolf. He comes out as seer. Player 2 is the real seer and comes out. Player 3 is the Guardian and has to decide on whom to guard.
a) Wolves decide to side with the fake seer and kill off a fellow wolf. If the guardian successfully guards Player 1, he would more than likely trust player 1 more, since that person was targeted for a wolf kill. If the guardian fails to guard player 1, more than likely the guard will think that the real seer died and would question who to guard.
b) Wolves decide to side with the real seer and kill the seer. If the guardian successfully guards Player 2, he would also trust this player more but will also trust whoever the seer trusts. And since the wolves stick to Player 2, they would work alongside with the seer, kill their fellow wolf, and inevitably the seer/guardian as well. If the guardian fails to guard Player 2 (this is what we DO NOT want to happen EVER), he will trust Player 1 more (the wolf) and wolf victory will be swift.
If I haven't made myself clear yet: argo and pnt, whoever is the real seer, is stupid for coming out/counter-claiming. The situation we have right now is type a.
After my post, I thought it would be obvious, given the facts, number, and scenarios, that the seer DOES NOT come out AT ALL, even if there is a fake claim. The real seer should have waited 'till Day to say, "Look, I'm the seer, I waited until Day because blahblahblah..." With this understanding, Argo is either a) a wolf, b) retarded, c) stupid, or d) blind and oblivious to my tl;dr post.
Why a veteran of TWG suggested the idea to -not- do the tried and true strategy that jwc posted confounded me. It was the best plan and you know it, flaw. The suggestion of your idea gave the humans a win/loss (i.e. a wolf for a blue). You know quite well that without a seer this game is "in the bag" for the wolves: there wouldn't be a possibility for anyone to know who is who, really, and the wolves would continue to play the charade. Also, the sheer presence of the plan you suggested paved the way for a wolf, Argo, to come and claim seer and make the rest of the humans think it was okay. "Lol, flaw said this let's follow it k? k."
Player 1 = Argo; [one] of the wolves = flaw; Player 2 = pnt
What has happened is a). Also, the guardian failed to guard Player 1 and since Player 2 is also dead, we can assume the real seer is dead along with a wolf. We are in a ****load of trouble. At this point, anyone could be a wolf and suspicion can only be arisen through AIM. Gj, you've all fallen for the trick (I'm excluding myself because I was afk ;_
.I suggest that everyone who is online now, or will view this later, send me a message. Thanks.
Oh before I go I would like to mention this: I really didn't skip over rzr's post: I've read them (just now but w/e). Although there's a difference in wording, we have similar ideas. Whether you decide to think both of us as wolves, one of us as wolves, or both of us human is entirely up to you. I would like to say, though, that I've had no contact with him at all after the re-roll and that I don't support all of his ideas. I know that his argument may seem a bit wavered, but it's there underneath fluff.
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