Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
Switch role block leads to one fewer kill this night. kyoko
Switch role block leads to one fewer kill this night. kyoko
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
Paging makoto to the twg area
Please play twg.Comment
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
This is why I harp so much on mechanics. The events of the night don't fully exonerate me, but putting actual thought into the results leads to a whole host of possibilities.
There was one, and only one death last night--Yasuhiro's. There are only three ways a player can die at night in this game: factional nightkill, identification nightkill, or acquisition. Therefore, Yasuhiro was either the Acquisitioner moving on to a new host, was targeted by the wolves, or both.
In the chaos at the end of the day, Yasuhiro hard claimed doctor.
This is relevant because it made Yasu an obvious target for the wolves at night. It doesn't seem coincidental that probably the most potent town role remaining died immediately after claiming—but it's possible. As much as it would work to my advantage to suggest that Yasu probably wasn't the Acqui, I can't do that. Because the more I think about it, the more I think they were.
There are several reasons to think otherwise. The general consensus seems to be that the Acquisitioner would avoid active players--this makes sense, as activity draws suspicion and lynchability, while also potentially drawing nighttime violence from the wolves. And perhaps most importantly, the more active a player has been (and thus has more content to parse), the greater the risk of being detected as a fraud. It would also be a hell of a coincidence for the most obvious wolf target to have been the Acquisitioner at the exact same time, albeit not impossible.
The possibility of Yasu having been the Acqui is, however, somewhat supported by EoD/night--the sudden lack of punctuation pointed out at EoD was real, although Junko (the only known Acqui) used punctuation more frequently than that (although not all the time). More telling is simply the results of the night. With the Divist dead, and the Acqui incentivized to mow through the player pool, it seems likely that Yasu was the then-Acqui by virtue of being the only death. Otherwise, we have to assume that the Acqui either chose not to acquire a new account last night, or somehow failed to do so despite the Divist being gone (presumably by trying to acquire Yasu for today, which seems...stupid, even without the benefit of hindsight).
Whether or not Yasu was the Acqui, then there are only two ways Yasu could have been attacked/died from wolf action: factional kill and ID kill. Your premise is that since there was one less kill, the block had to have been successful. The thing is, if Yasu was targeted by the wolves, it was almost certainly via factional kill.
You yourself provided several players that you believe you had identified:
Not listed here was Yasu, which would suggest that, in a general way at least, their actual identity is harder to determine. Byakuya seems to think Byakuya's identifiability is limited
so it seems a stretch to apply an ID kill to Yasu, someone even more comparatively obscured. This is even more the case since Yasu has now flipped as doctor. The wolves would want to guarantee a nightkill of a town power role, and would be unable to do so with the specter of misidentification.
Basically, the only reasonable outlet for Yasu, claimed doctor, being targeted by wolves last night was via a normal wolfkill. Which, of course, is inconsistent with the possibility of blocking me having prevented that kill, since Yasu is dead.
Now the obvious counterpoint is that the wolves could have targeted someone else, most likely Chihiro due to their claim. After all, if Yasu was the Acqui, and 'Norted someone else last night, that would account for Yasu's death. But if Yasu didn't self-protect (the OP doesn't say if the doctor had that ability as far as I can tell, but it doesn't really matter), then Yasu could have protected Chihiro, making them immune to a nightkill. Of course, the question remains whether evil-Yasu would have wanted to do that.
So I see three basic ways the night could have played out.
1. In order to eliminate the doctor, the wolves chose Yasu for their factional nightkill. However Yasu-Nort probably chose bulletproof as one of their bonus traits, and transferred to another person. Yasu died, essentially killed two ways for the price of one.
2. In order to eliminate the blocker, the wolves chose Chihiro for their factional nightkill. This was prevented by doctor protection, but Yasu still died due to moving onto their next account. This seems less likely, because there's not an absolute incentive for Yasu-Nort to protect town.
3. Yasu was not acquired, and was an uncorrupted town player who was killed by the wolves, presumably by normal NK for the reasons stated above. This seems the least likely of the three, because it leaves the actions of the Acqui unaccounted for.
Obviously, there's a scenario where I was blocked and that's why there was only one death. But given the way the day ended, if I was a wolf, I would never chosen to be the one to deliver the night kill. Given that it seems likely that Yasu was the Acquisitioner, scenario 1 makes sense to me--the wolves wanted to kill the doc, and wound up with an empty husk instead.Comment
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
Holy shit, stop eating my posts. Have some (a lot of) words.
This is why I harp so much on mechanics. The events of the night don't fully exonerate me, but putting actual thought into the results leads to a whole host of possibilities.
There was one, and only one death last night--Yasuhiro's. There are only three ways a player can die at night in this game: factional nightkill, identification nightkill, or acquisition. Therefore, Yasuhiro was either the Acquisitioner moving on to a new host, was targeted by the wolves, or both.
In the chaos at the end of the day, Yasuhiro hard claimed doctor.
This is relevant because it made Yasu an obvious target for the wolves at night. It doesn't seem coincidental that probably the most potent town role remaining died immediately after claiming—but it's possible. As much as it would work to my advantage to suggest that Yasu probably wasn't the Acqui, I can't do that. Because the more I think about it, the more I think they were.
There are several reasons to think otherwise. The general consensus seems to be that the Acquisitioner would avoid active players--this makes sense, as activity draws suspicion and lynchability, while also potentially drawing nighttime violence from the wolves. And perhaps most importantly, the more active a player has been (and thus has more content to parse), the greater the risk of being detected as a fraud. It would also be a hell of a coincidence for the most obvious wolf target to have been the Acquisitioner at the exact same time, albeit not impossible.
The possibility of Yasu having been the Acqui is, however, somewhat supported by EoD/night--the sudden lack of punctuation pointed out at EoD was real, although Junko (the only known Acqui) used punctuation more frequently than that (although not all the time). More telling is simply the results of the night. With the Divist dead, and the Acqui incentivized to mow through the player pool, it seems likely that Yasu was the then-Acqui by virtue of being the only death. Otherwise, we have to assume that the Acqui either chose not to acquire a new account last night, or somehow failed to do so despite the Divist being gone (presumably by trying to acquire Yasu for today, which seems...stupid, even without the benefit of hindsight).
Whether or not Yasu was the Acqui, then there are only two ways Yasu could have been attacked/died from wolf action: factional kill and ID kill. Your premise is that since there was one less kill, the block had to have been successful. The thing is, if Yasu was targeted by the wolves, it was almost certainly via factional kill.
You yourself provided several players that you believe you had identified:
Not listed here was Yasu, which would suggest that, in a general way at least, their actual identity is harder to determine. Byakuya seems to think Byakuya's identifiability is limited
so it seems a stretch to apply an ID kill to Yasu, someone even more comparatively obscured. This is even more the case since Yasu has now flipped as doctor. The wolves would want to guarantee a nightkill of a town power role, and would be unable to do so with the specter of misidentification.
Basically, the only reasonable outlet for Yasu, claimed doctor, being targeted by wolves last night was via a normal wolfkill. Which, of course, is inconsistent with the possibility of blocking me having prevented that kill, since Yasu is dead.
Now the obvious counterpoint is that the wolves could have targeted someone else, most likely Chihiro due to their claim. After all, if Yasu was the Acqui, and 'Norted someone else last night, that would account for Yasu's death. But if Yasu didn't self-protect (the OP doesn't say if the doctor had that ability as far as I can tell, but it doesn't really matter), then Yasu could have protected Chihiro, making them immune to a nightkill. Of course, the question remains whether evil-Yasu would have wanted to do that.
So I see three basic ways the night could have played out.
1. In order to eliminate the doctor, the wolves chose Yasu for their factional nightkill. However Yasu-Nort probably chose bulletproof as one of their bonus traits, and transferred to another person. Yasu died, essentially killed two ways for the price of one.
2. In order to eliminate the blocker, the wolves chose Chihiro for their factional nightkill. This was prevented by doctor protection, but Yasu still died due to moving onto their next account. This seems less likely, because there's not an absolute incentive for Yasu-Nort to protect town.
3. Yasu was not acquired, and was an uncorrupted town player who was killed by the wolves, presumably by normal NK for the reasons stated above. This seems the least likely of the three, because it leaves the actions of the Acqui unaccounted for.
Obviously, there's a scenario where I was blocked and that's why there was only one death. But given the way the day ended, if I was a wolf, I would never chosen to be the one to deliver the night kill. Given that it seems likely that Yasu was the Acquisitioner, scenario 1 makes sense to me--the wolves wanted to kill the doc, and wound up with an empty husk instead.Comment
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
My points against Mondo still stand. His later explanation was better, but he's still the best vote at this point in my estimation. I'll make a longer case in a minute.
Mondo
As to your comments above, they don't make sense. I was too afraid to push an active player...so I pushed active player Mondo all day? As to what happened at the end, allow me to clarify--and why your complaint makes no sense, regardless of what happened.
1. A wagon suddenly formed against me, late.
2. I know my own alignment--I'm town. It was therefore against my interest--which is to say the town's interest--to allow myself to be lynched without trying to avoid it. I didn't know Hifuni's alignment, which meant that even though they turned out to be town, it was less likely to me than my own town status. Hifuni, moreover, had been extremely inactive--even setting aside the somewhat suspicious timing of his few posts, he couldn't be counted on to do anything at any point, and thus his ability to contribute was limited.
3. So I voted for the least harmful alternative of other possible wagons.
4. Then things went to hell. Leon posted his observation about Yasu's punctuation very close to the deadline. I saw that (and the multiple votes on Yasu) as soon as I made my initial Hifuni vote. I didn't have time to check Yasu's posts myself, but given that someone else besides Leon--specifically you--
jumped on it, I assumed that the observation was legitimate. After all, I assumed then and now that based on your claim that you're town, and thus were at least acting in good faith. In a sudden time crunch, I immediately voted Yasu.
5. At that point, I saw the doctor claim, made in response to the sudden Yasu wagon, and I tried to leap off, but :00 came before I could.
N.B.: Ironically, I'm now convinced that Yasu was in fact that correct option in that split--since they were the only player killed last night, it stands to reason that Yasu was Junko's latest incarnation. If Yasu wasn't the Acqui, then your block on me has no probative value at all, since that would require Yasu to unquestionably have been killed by the wolves, and them doing so via an ID kill makes no sense.Comment
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
unvote I want to read the longer case on MondoComment
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
Well first things first I didn't say you were pushing an inactive. I was saying this post I quoted was a bad defense. You didn't argue anything new to try to get people to vote with you on Mondo after giving one questionable interpretation of one of his posts... I voted you to force you to actually affect the lynch outcome or die... In addition to my suspicions.
But...I think you're right that Yasuhiro as acquisitionee stacked with the mafia regular kill is the simplest explanation...it is still possible I blocked your attempt to stack on him... but...UnvoteOriginally posted by Mondo OwadaOriginally posted by Byakuya TogamiComment
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
Kyoko spouting lots of wine.Comment
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Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
If kyoko isn't a wolf Leon definitely is, though.Comment
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