TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

[Makoto Naegi]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

I have to leave again for a long stretch but I'll be back before eod assuming I don't fall asleep from exhaustion

[Makoto Naegi]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

No Lynch might be the way to go here

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Can the town even win here?

Right now, there are four players remaining. The player pool composition is necessarily either 2 town, 1 acquisitioned town, and 1 wolf; or 3 town and 1 acquisitioned wolf.

We can still win scenario (2) by lynching the acquisitioned wolf, essentially killing two birds with one stone. Scenario (1) is more difficult. In that case, we'd have to deliberately no-lynch (a possibility I don't see addressed in the OP, so not sure if it's valid), then hope for a specific set of night events. We would need the wolf to target the current Acqui (or we'll lose a 1:1:1 or 1:1 tomorrow depending on what powers the the Acqui chose), and if the Acqui survives that (my understanding of order of operations here is that the wolf kill would occur first), they have to possess the wolf.

If we lynch a town player today, we lose. If we lynch an individual wolf or Acqui today, we also lose. In other words, any lynch right now defeats us unless the wolf and the Acqui are the same person.

We can, however, instantly win by lynching a wolf-Acqui. We can survive to the night by no-lynching, but that takes control of the game completely out of our hands and essentially leaves it to (unfavorable) RNG, specifically the two scenarios outlined above.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Also (obviously), if the no-lynch strategy plays out favorably, it would still require a correct lynch tomorrow.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

We really should get to talking again. All remaining scenarios depend on identifying the Acqui and deciding whether they're currently controlling a town or wolf account. We can scumhunt based on past days, but finding the Acqui requires that we analyze the present.

As it currently stands, I suspect either Makoto or Sakura is the Acqui. This post

I checked Kyoko's D0 and she voted for Junko. There was no interaction between Kyoko and Sayaka, but Sayaka didn't interact much anyway.

I'm hesitant to accept a world where Kyoko is a wolf because if that's true, then the town is probably going to lose.

is tonally consistent with my view of Byakuya as a writer and isn't something that I would expect from Junko, although making that assumption based on a single post is dangerous (which is why further discussion from everyone would be beneficial). Sakura has obviously been more vocal today, as has Makoto, but that's easily explained by reduced player numbers and an endgame setting.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

This intro is just to get the post to show up.

***

We really should get to talking again. All remaining scenarios depend on identifying the Acqui and deciding whether they're currently controlling a town or wolf account. We can scumhunt based on past days, but finding the Acqui requires that we analyze the present.

As it currently stands, I suspect either Makoto or Sakura is the Acqui. This post

I checked Kyoko's D0 and she voted for Junko. There was no interaction between Kyoko and Sayaka, but Sayaka didn't interact much anyway.

I'm hesitant to accept a world where Kyoko is a wolf because if that's true, then the town is probably going to lose.

is tonally consistent with my view of Byakuya as a writer and isn't something that I would expect from Junko, although making that assumption based on a single post is dangerous (which is why further discussion from everyone would be beneficial). Sakura has obviously been more vocal today, as has Makoto, but that's easily explained by reduced player numbers and an endgame setting.

[Sakura Ogami]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

This intro is just to get the post to show up.

***

We really should get to talking again. All remaining scenarios depend on identifying the Acqui and deciding whether they're currently controlling a town or wolf account. We can scumhunt based on past days, but finding the Acqui requires that we analyze the present.

As it currently stands, I suspect either Makoto or Sakura is the Acqui. This post



is tonally consistent with my view of Byakuya as a writer and isn't something that I would expect from Junko, although making that assumption based on a single post is dangerous (which is why further discussion from everyone would be beneficial). Sakura has obviously been more vocal today, as has Makoto, but that's easily explained by reduced player numbers and an endgame setting.

We're fucked. Kyoko is looking for the acquisitioner and not even pretending to scumhunt, which means that the wolf and the acquisitioner are not the same person.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

We're fucked. Kyoko is looking for the acquisitioner and not even pretending to scumhunt, which means that the wolf and the acquisitioner are not the same person.

We can scumhunt based on information from previous days, and in fact that's likely to be more useful for scumhunting than anything that happens today. We can't use past days to determine who the acquisitioner is (except for the purpose of comparison) because, mechanically, no one left in the game was the acqui until today. As I already explained, lynching either a sole wolf or a sole acqui results in an endgame loss. The goal here should be to create enough discussion that people can come to their own conclusions regarding the identity of the acqui, and see if that matches their suspected wolf.

But by all means, please continue complaining about how we're fucked. I'm sure that will solve things.

[Sakura Ogami]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

The goal here should be to create enough discussion that people can come to their own conclusions regarding the identity of the acqui, and see if that matches their suspected wolf.

...which is precisely what my previous post does

[Sakura Ogami]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

We can scumhunt based on information from previous days, and in fact that's likely to be more useful for scumhunting than anything that happens today. We can't use past days to determine who the acquisitioner is (except for the purpose of comparison) because, mechanically, no one left in the game was the acqui until today. As I already explained, lynching either a sole wolf or a sole acqui results in an endgame loss. The goal here should be to create enough discussion that people can come to their own conclusions regarding the identity of the acqui, and see if that matches their suspected wolf.

But by all means, please continue complaining about how we're fucked. I'm sure that will solve things.

While we're here, do you have any SCUMreads? It seems backwards that you're trying to match the wolf and the acqui together instead of looking for wolves, which is "easier" and then seeing if they're the acqui.

[Sakura Ogami]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Like ffs, Leon flipped red last night. The first thing that came into my mind was to use that information to find wolves

[Sakura Ogami]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

I guess my fundamental question with your play this phase is this:

If we need to lynch both the wolf and the acqui this phase in order to win (we is true), why are you intentionally making it harder on yourself by looking for the acqui this phase instead of the wolf, where there are actual previous day connections and red flips? It makes little sense to begin your search this way. And you haven't even made lipservice about who you think a wolf is.

My answer is that you're a wolf and you only care about the acquisitioner because lynching them is the only way you can win. You are totally correct that town can only win if wolf+acqui are same person, but you are using this as an excuse to only hunt for the acqui and try to get them lynched because "hey, they have to be a wolf too, or else we lose anyway." Which, again, is true, but you are making use of that as a convenience for yourself to win as a wolf.

I'm pretty sold on you being a wolf, which sucks, because your preoccupation with the acqui means that they are NOT you, and thus we can't win at this point. But at the very least, I'm not going down on your terms.

[Sakura Ogami]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Regarding the acquisitioner, just because, it's either Byakuya or Makoto. Byakuya has been playing consistently and their play style is easy to read, which makes it easier for somebody to assume that slot without it being suspicious. Makoto has been all over the board with play and consistency this game, which makes it difficult to emulate. They also are inherently more suspicious for this, which makes an acqui jump into them less desirable.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Honestly, Sakura, I think you're the Acquisitioner. Your case against me relies considerably on Leon's actions, which isn't unreasonable. But you conveniently ignore that Leon yesterday wasn't Leon the Wolf. It was Leon the Acquisitioner.

How on earth are you still reading Kyoko as town???? After Leon flipped, seriously?

Go back and read the last two EODS and see all the relationships between Leon and Kyoko. It's appallingly obvious that Kyoko's slot is wolf. Kyoko

Yesterday's EoD (as it pertains to Leon's behavior) needs to be contextualized by that. Everything Leon did yesterday was actually Junko, in pursuit of their own agenda. Now, Leon tethered to me before that, so Leon-nort's behavior yesterday was likely meant to be a believable recreation of his prior behavior. But Fake Leon would also have known they had finally acquired a scum account, and thus that today would probably look much like this. So that also allowed them to set up a false case against me.

As soon as today started, you came out hard against me. That's not problematic in and of itself, and for a time I actually read you as townier as a result. But you've deliberately avoided considering any other possibilities, even to the extent that your goal is apparently to lynch me over winning the game.

Probably not but I still want to nail Kyoko here.

And here, finally, Kyoko gets her lipservice of "I might be wrong!" but then realizes that she kind of has to get this Mondo lynch through so she covers her tracks IMMEDIATELY after saying that.

I will have your head Kyoko.

The only way town can win here is if Kyoko was acquisitioned last night I think. So, whatever, but I'm going out on my own terms.

Your approach is much more emotional than it had been previously. At the same time, it's way more aggressive and ordered than your previous play. I'd argue that your voice and style have changed substantially overnight.

What I think happened is that the Acqui acquired Leon, continued linking Leon to me, then acquired you. Having built a case against me previously, you're attempting to use it now. The thing is, that's still dangerous for you if you're NOT the wolf. But that doesn't mean you have to be, unfortunately. At the same time, I wonder why you'd sell out so heavily on this case if it weren't a guaranteed win.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Having said all that, I can't be sure you're the wolf (or technically even the acqui, although it seems likely when tone reading everyone). I'm reviewing Makoto and Byakuya now. I've read Makoto once already, but there simply isn't a lot there. Byakuya feels town, but a good scum player can project that.