TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

the next time i play i really shouldn't sign up unless i plan to spend at least 3-5 hours every day reading everyone's posts and analyzing everyone

so i haven't spent enough time on this game

I'm starting to realize that most of your posts during this game are bad because it's just you thinking out loud without organizing your thoughts. I mean, sure, make that mental note if you want, but it doesn't help me to make my vote.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Just realized one thing out of the blue:
The fact that I claimed hyper beam pretty much guarantees I'll get eaten by wolves tonight, for the sole reason that by getting my they're sure not to target the mirror coat.

I'll do my best to be useful during the day.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

*by getting me

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Just realized one thing out of the blue:
The fact that I claimed hyper beam pretty much guarantees I'll get eaten by wolves tonight, for the sole reason that by getting my they're sure not to target the mirror coat.

I'll do my best to be useful during the day.

this is gonna sound scummy

but fuck it






























you could be the last vote if I'm not here / we can't pressure other top scum to vote

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

this is gonna sound scummy

but fuck it






























you could be the last vote if I'm not here / we can't pressure other top scum to vote

like not saying this is a good idea, but it's there

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Let's explore the possibilities:

1) drg is takedown
--- 1.a) I vote last --> I die right away, wolves gamble their target, might get mirrorcoat
--- 1.b) Xel (or other scumread) votes last --> Potentially get 2 wolves at once. I die during the night, no potential mirrorcoat

2) drg is NOT takedown
--- 2.a) I vote last --> I don't die with her, but get eaten by wolves. No mirrorcoat.
--- 2.b) Xel (or other scumread) votes last --> I get eaten by wolves, no mirrorcoat.


Basically, good things happen only if drg is the takedown. This makes me want to believe she is it, but I can't let that bias me. If she's not takedown, no strategy can change my fate.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

There are 8 towns and 3 wolves left.
If drizzle is takedown and I votes for her last, we'd both die, so there would be 7 towns and 2 wolves left. Wolves would have 1/7=14.2% chances of hitting the mirrorcoat.

If drizzle is takedown and a scumread votes for her last, drg would die (=> 8 towns and 2 wolves left), the probability of the scumread to flip wolf is 2/(2+8)=20%.
(My probability of dying that night is 100%)

Probability wise, 2.b) is our best option to find as many wolves as possible.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

You may now call me lurker, master of probabilities

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

whoa I meant 1.b) is our best option. woops

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Also, I think that since wolves are voting independently, they would each have 14.2% chances of hitting the mirrorcoat if we went with option 1.a) (except for the confusionist, who would survive). This makes 1.a) just a bit better than I initially thought.

Opinions?

[MarioNintendo]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Third target--> Mellonxcollie
Bet you didn't expect that one. Now this is a bit of a stretch, since I can't prove it, but TPS222 made a post after his replacement for mellon where he pretty much said that he had trouble during this game because out-of-thread talk was not allowed. His post also ended with a ":/" face, in case that helps anyone remember. Was I the only one to see that? Nobody else quoted it, and during that period I was in hiding (my last post before this one was #1211, and his was around ~#1300). There's no reason for him to post something like that if he's not a wolf, since they're the only role who can potentially talk out of threads. I don't know if he deleted it himself after realizing how huge that slip was, but it's not there anymore. He had no right to post that since he was already replaced, but hey, I saw it, and you bet I won't let it slip that easily. Mellon's posting has been great so far, and if she's truly a wolf, I would have been 100% fooled. However, since she inherited TPS's role, she also inherits his mistakes, and so this creates a huuuuuuuge doubt in my mind at this point. I literally feel bad for mellon at this point, but as I've said, I think TPS's post was in fact a gigantic slip that he deleted himself upon realization, and this has to be discussed at the very least.

Also, I just wanted to remind everyone about this. Aside from dbp who started studying mellon in more detail, I think nobody commented on this. That's important. So far, nobody scumread mellon, and since I'm a goner tonight, I want to make sure this avenue gets fully explored.

- I really want to lynch DRG because her playstyle has been terrible from the beginning, but I have to admit that the more I think about it, the more I'm unsure how to read her.
- I dislike botchi, but I have nothing concrete.
- I find Xel weird since D2

Come to think of it, mellon is the one against whom I have the most crucial evidence. I might have been the only one to see that evidence, I don't know yet.

I know I just said that I'd stick to voting drg, but screw it. Let's give mellon a shot.

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Red Blaster is a wolf

that thing I mentioned about keeping your top wolf reads as one wolf and one town

red blaster literally was doing that

dear god I just read Red Blaster's post history

I encourage you all to do the same

he's howling

more details tomorrow probably

is he a better lynch than drizzle? I'm not sure

but I would harbor a guess that his humanity is tied to drizzle's somehow, so she might be a better lynch (if she's town, RB looks like shit)

Look, drg, I don't think you'll survive this day. At this point, my vote won't change. So let's make a deal.

There's always the possibility that you flip town and that I read you completely wrong. If that's the case, I'll need to know who you read as wolf, AND WHY. Please, before you get killed, make a list that is NOT a waste of time that contains all your reads. At least we'll get something useful out of this.

Yeah explain to me in what world do I kill, or even allow a kill to go through, on roundbox, the one person who was town reading me the most. Here's a clue: I don't. You and your fuckboy wolf partner Xiz probably fucking killed him because with him alive the red blaster wagon will gain absolutely zero fucking traction ever.

You're fucking bad and probably actually more likely to be one of the wolves at this point in time than I will ever be and I will now do my absolute best to get you fucking lynched today you stupid fucking moron.

you dun goofed motherfucker

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

No clue why that MN quote was there..

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

more details tomorrow probably

is he a better lynch than drizzle? I'm not sure

but I would harbor a guess that his humanity is tied to drizzle's somehow, so she might be a better lynch (if she's town, RB looks like shit)

Still pushing those D0 reads I see

THIS JUST IN:

Drizzle is town, RB is wolf

Sick progression

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CLIII - Cha Cha Got 'Em! - Game Thread

Don't really like DBP's posts about TPS who keep in mind had one post (the post about mechanics in D0)

TPS is pretty lock town in my eyes

Lock town after one post that I completely destroyed him for being 100% a wolf based off of meta..ok.

do you think he's posturing here danceguy?

^^ posturing isn't really the right word, but I'm wondering if you think wolf TPS is faking giving gameplay advice in his first line of the game

or if it's just a stupid read to make altogether

or if I'm just stupid period

Let's go with that last one.

His storn posts are kinda interesting to read in hindsight

It smells like storn is wolfing

storn's a wolf this game

He's had 48 hours to prove himself but he hasn't projected his town tell

Storn has had ample time to produce reads and at least form opinions but we have had absolutely none of that: almost every single one of his posts has been either joking or purely self-defensive. There is exactly one post in his history where he exerts any cognitive effort towards actually solving the game, and that is his weak push on danceguy:

"It's bad reasoning, but I'm not good at this game!" alone may or may not be a wolf tell, but this mindset usually doesn't appear in storn's play, or at the very least, he abjectly ignores the opinion of "I'm bad at this game" and keeps pushing strongly anyway.

imo this is classic storn wolf behavior --- I pointed out he was a wolf earlier, but gave him enough time to go out of his way to produce content, but we have almost nothing to work with, besides that danceguy vote. In fact, if storn is a wolf, I would say that almost necessarily implicates danceguy too.

The mindset "I'm not good at this game" is, in this situation, used as a defense mechanism to dismiss scrutiny towards his wolfy behavior.

Since you're viewing storn, sorry, but imo this is pretty damning

Nothing that has happened so far has changed my mind on storn

His early game Drizzle posts make almost zero sense

storn and drizzle are wolves based on the possible deflection, storn should always die first

I'm actually a little uneasy about how many ppl are going after drizzle atm

Like if you believe what I'm saying here, lynching drizzle first doesn't make that much sense

This train of thought honestly doesn't even line up with itself.

His posts about MarioNintendo are really something else

I'd be down to lynch MarioNintendo I think

my intuition is that he's been really diplomatic this game but I'll need to reread his stuff

GOD FUCKING DAMNIT

could MarioNintendo even fake a dumbtell like that???

damnit I think MN is town

NEVERMIND

marionintendo

I had him as wolf, but only thought he might be town because he only thought there were three wolves. But that was wrong ---- so I'm back at him being a wolf.

the dumbtell I thought was there didn't exist according to himself, so I revoked the townread

alright I don't know

MN isn't here to defend himself

yeah he's probably not a good candidate for today actually

This is as far as I had time to get, I'll do more later when I get home from work.