TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

[emerald000]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

If we could get two other votes for AC before day ends, that could save us a couple of phantoms.

[Viccica]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I don't want an insta. I think afro is a way more likely suspect. Despite that log with ac. Maybe I'm just missing something, but I don't see anything condemning enough for an insta....

fiction for the safety. I don't want to take part in this one. =p

[Panda Express]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Something I didn't think about, if seer finds red and green, then to be safe I think the Seer needs to wait a third night. Red-green could possibly be wolf-MasterWolf, so they need a 3rd seer target to just revert back to the plan I stated above.


I think the seer needs to find a mini-alliance here, but not look to expand.


Hope I'm not coming in as too strong for still being within my first 10 posts :P

[Viccica]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Well.... To avoid people who haven't voted yet getting phantoms I guess I have no choice....



ac for the insta... =/ Even if I'm not too sure I like it.

[Viccica]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Hookers need to be active and whatnot. >

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Insta has been reached, update will happen when I'm at a comp again. 30 mins tops is my estimate.

[Panda Express]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Changing my vote, we can't afford phantoms this early on. VOting AC, sorry Bro =\

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Day over! AC1speakerbox was insta'd.

Night 2 begins now, ending in 24 hours. That's 1 PM EST 10/17/09 (SAT)

1. Gun92 (james92hofmann)
2. Ac1Speakerbox (Ac1Colossus)
3. Clarinet89 (clarinet898)
4. Afrobean (Afrobean16)
5. DarkManticoreX2 (DarkManticoreX2)
6. FictionJunction (FikshonJunkshon)
7. Syhto (amanetora)
8. A2P (awesome lamer)
9. Ruritsu (Ruritsu)
10. u84 (u8477)
11. sc979 (sam97379)
12. Viccica (mmviccica)
13. emerald000 (emerald3x0)
14. Bolth mannn (bolthmannn)
15. Sullyman2007 (sully5313)
16. BDN (megamngtx)

[Syhto]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

hopefully this insta lynching in order to prevent phantoms wont become a trend

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Insta was reached with Panda's vote.

I don't see any advantage that is worth the risk. Can you explain to me why the seer and psychic getting together is such a good and necessary thing? Even assuming one subtracted from the seering pool, is there anything else that warrants putting both of our blues at risk?

There is a 9% risk that the seer come out to the master wolf. 9% it's not even close to 50% or even 25%. I would feel much better knowing the seer and psychic are alive, especially after BDN got killed night 1. It's advantageous, because it forces the wolves to wolf the human that comes out in the thread to stop the "potential" alliance from getting too big for them to handle. As a tradeoff, we get a night were the seer isn't the target of a wolf kill, and the blues get together. If somehow the MW gets really lucky and is hit by the first seering, the two blues can take him down. Yes its the worst scenario possible, but it still nets a wolf. The psychic is about useless anyway once the MW is dead. It's not that helpful to know wolves after they're dead.

Except that the seer has to come out and endanger himself to reduce the pool by one. Is it worth it? At least in a "normal" game, the threat of guardian would cause the MW to act exactly as a human would in your example, but if the MW they could take out both of our blues within 2 days.

The MW has to act like a human for the day the seer comes out to him. It's after that you have to worry about, and like i said above, we are talking about a worst case scenario.

And yes, the other blue could then immediately call the seer'd person on it (assuming the blue wolfed WOULDN'T otherwise be killed... hard to say given first night choice of BDN), but then we'd be trading our two blues for one red. Do you think that's a good trade? I'd be willing to trade one blue for one red, but in this sort of game, I don't think we should risk giving up both of them just to get one red.

This is why it would be good to know what assets we have. If the seer is dead we're in for a tough long haul. if the psychic is dead, we're not at that much of a loss, and the game is plenty doable still. I don't like trading two blues for one red, But i really really really would like someone else to have the same info as the seer. If the seer dies without talking to anyone, we loose all the seered greens, and whatever red he is possibly sitting on. I would be more then willing to risk a 9% chance of sacrificing the blues to get someone else with all the seers info so it can't all be lost in one night.

Also: the seer'd party could be MW and STILL act as a normal human would. Help establish the alliance and get themselves a nice seat of power behind the two blues. From there, the seer'd person could offer themselves as a front to reach out and establish more members of the alliance (under the premise that he would claim himself as the seer, and if he talks to the MW, he'd be wolfed instead of the seer). They could even help the seer identify and kill the wolves for real ("hey, seer, you should look at X, I think he is a wolf" then when it turns up red be like "yeah we got one!"). Then when it inevitably gets to endgame with both blues wolfed already and it comes down to MW, one seer'd green, and one non-seer'd player, the alliance members would team up to take down the "last wolf".

If that player doesn't get wolved 1 or 2 nights after he comes out i wouldn't count him/her as a given green anymore. Hell I'd be damn suspicious of him if he isn't immediately killed. The green is the seer's opening to the thread. The wolves have a very good reaon to kill him.

Why would the seer come out to a seer'd green? What advantage does this give anyone? It risks his existence without good reason. I think your brain has been addled by games which rely on alliances. This game is designed in a way to PREVENT them. I think it's foolish of you to suggest we should attempt to rely on them in spite of the prevention in place.

I mean, in a NORMAL "no guardian" game, there wouldn't be a MW. Seering results would be 100% verification. The seer would still be able to build a hidden pooled alliance, so long as the greens trust the seer (i.e., a wolf could potentially fake and collect themselves another pool of trusted followers). But in this game, the only seering result that's truly accurate is red and blue. Nothing else should necessarily be trusted at face value.

This game is designed to make it difficult to establish one, not impossible. Alliances win games. PERIOD. Knowing what humans have been cleared and what humans haven't is a very good way to out every wolf but the MW. It sounds like you don't want any sharing of info if there's a little risk involved with it. It might be more fun for you, but it's detrimental to the game as a whole.

Please explain to me why you believe this. Is it just because you've never played a game where the seer had little advantage to doing so? Is it because you're just so used to there being a huge advantage to the seer coming out in one way or another? Is it just because you want to sacrifice your MW in exchange for removing the seer from play before they take a look at you or your partners?

The seer i not going to come out in the thread unless he absolutely has to. the day he comes out in the thread, he will immediately be killed the following night. So yes, I believe he has to come out to someone at some point to preserve his life

And you're also ignoring the point that in a game where the seer can't PUBLICLY come out, there is realistic chance of wolf faking seer privately. If someone came to me and said "I'm the seer and I seer'd you last night", I wouldn't trust them. I wouldn't out them since odds are good they'd be legit, but I certainly wouldn't trust them completely like I would in a PUBLIC coming out.

If that happened and you came out to the thread with info, the real seer would likely contact you to stop the bs seering, and you'd have to trade seer for fake seer.

I would say this should only happen if the seer nails two or more wolves. If they only hit one, they should do their best to point out the wolfy things that person does and get them lynched, but they shouldn't expose themselves (unless they feel like their life is worth the one wolf's life). But if they get two or more, they could absolutely trade their life for those two wolves I think.

If an alliance of some sort does get set up, the seer doesn't need to hold the name of the first wolf till he finds a second, he can just have a human come out with the first one.

If I was the seer, I'd probably just publicly announce myself to PROVE WHO I AM. I'd be killing myself, but I'd also be essentially confirmed that I was telling the truth and we'd be able to knock out 2 wolves right away.

And we'll have two MW's running around great.

But apart from that, the first night's seering does appear to have the highest likelihood of being human, so LATER IN THE GAME, that could be the person the seer comes out to (or if they've been wolfed or whatever, night 2, etc.). But again, I'd say it's better for the seer to wait until they have something worth dying for, then publicly reveal themselves to confirm the info they're giving is legit so that everyone will trust them.

Obligiatory, Later in the game that person could be dead.

I know I probably wouldn't trust someone with seering information enough to lynch based solely on that unless they publicly reveal themselves.

15/16 people disagree

But ****... even a wolf could fake a seer'd list of reds late in the game and then wolf themselves to make it appear legit. I guess they probably wouldn't risk it since the seer would probably still be alive though, eh?

The later it gets in the game, the less i am inclined to believe when some random seer comes out. Too much possibility of a wolf taking a shot at winning the game.

What is there to gain for the humans if the seer risks himself like that? Where is the ADVANTAGE? You're talking in givens without justifications. WHY should the seer HAVE TO come out? WHAT does he have to gain other than revealing if he catches a red?

He gains an underground alliance with the psychic, and at least someone knows what assets we have that are alive.

And like I said, I won't trust a report of a seered red unless it's reported publicly (although a seer'd green could fill this role if the seer feels it's worth the risk of his life to get this wolf dead) and no one contends it. As it gets later into the game, I'm less likely to even accept that as the seer could be killed and a crafty wolf could play a fake out.

Haha i posted this too before reading your post completely

All in all, it's up to the seer to decide. If he feels the risk is worth the benefit when he hasn't even yet caught a red, that's up to him. I'm just trying to persuade him away from giving himself away to the MW before he is even able to do anything useful for the team.

The longer the seer goes without contacting someone, the better the chance is that he's dead.

I just don't get you people. You're so entrenched in alliance-based play that you can't wrap your minds around a game which is PURPOSELY DESIGNED to make them NOT FUNCTIONALLY USEFUL. This simple design makes it impossible to go with the typical pick-'em-off-one-by-one design that EVERY OTHER GAME EVER works on. Why are you so wishful that a team of blues will win the game for you even in this sort of game that is supposed to be green-driven, discussion-driven, based on logic and deduction?

It's not that we want blues to win the game, it's that we want to keep useful, human beneficial information alive. If the seer gets offed randomly we loose that information and can't get it back. besides the chance of the seer getting hit tonight by random luck is 10% if we haven't killed a wolf, and 9% if we have.

OH **** LOOK AT THAT ITS THE SAME RISK PERCENTAGE IF HE CAME OUT TO A SEERED GREEN

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I'm not a fan of long segmented posts. It seems you guys just like sounding and looking smart instead of being it.

ANYWAY, I'll just assume manti's post is a tl;dr version of what I said before.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

If you're going to tl:dr it, read the first and last segmentations at the very least

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

like, **** your percentages. If the seer seered a green player he should have enough of a brain to try and figure out whether or not the player is the MW. If everything points towards the player being human and there's a chance of imminent death then he should give whatever info he has to this player. Even if it's just green seer results.

why are we having this discussion.

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

the seer isn't only there to give us red results. The seer isn't a martyr. Red results aren't guaranteed. He has to do something with whatever results he gets.

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I HATE THIS GAME. FictionJunction