TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

[Panda Express]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Well seeing as we all seem to agree that coming out after a night 1 seering, regardless of the result, is out of the question, this is all going to come down to a waiting game with the seer. Besides that, back to trying to eek out information out of each other.

Zzz ...

[Ruritsu]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Um, I have a terribly dumb question to ask, considering how long I've played. However, when does the psychic get his/her reading, end of day or end of night?

[Gun92]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I think your sig is incorrect Ruritsu...just saying. I think you mean to say Too not to.

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Um, I have a terribly dumb question to ask, considering how long I've played. However, when does the psychic get his/her reading, end of day or end of night?

End of night/beginning of day.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

There is a 9% risk that the seer come out to the master wolf. 9% it's not even close to 50% or even 25%. I would feel much better knowing the seer and psychic are alive, especially after BDN got killed night 1. It's advantageous, because it forces the wolves to wolf the human that comes out in the thread to stop the "potential" alliance from getting too big for them to handle.

No, it doesn't. Like I pointed out, the wolves could just leave that human alive and we could probably lynch him. But on the reverse psych angle, a MW could play that card as a defense for why they haven't been wolfed (assuming the green the seer came out to is publicly identified... why would the person the seer came out to reveal themselves publicly if a red hadn't yet been caught? And due to this, why would the seer bother to risk themselves by revealing themselves to a potential MW who may not even be alive if/when the seer has anything worth revealing?).

As a tradeoff, we get a night were the seer isn't the target of a wolf kill

In a game where the seer isn't identified, he is NEVER the target. Getting him would be a lucky shot in the dark. The wolves might be HOPING to get him, but they're not aiming.

I mean, technically, they COULD use logic to deduce who is NOT the seer, but I don't think most in the game have the brain power to figure that out. People in this game apparently don't even have the brain power to figure out how to catch wolves without a seer.

and the blues get together.

Still, no one has explained to me what is so advantageous about this. The only advantage I see is that the psychic could pair his vote with the seer's if they catch a red, but is one additional vote on the stack worth the risk? A good player should be able to motivate the group to get behind his vision without saying "I seer'd this person".

If somehow the MW gets really lucky and is hit by the first seering, the two blues can take him down.

Not necessarily. What if the psychic and seer are both relatively likely to die from wolfing? What if the green is legitimately green, but the seer dies the next night anyway? What if the wolves DON'T attack a public seer'd human?

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't attack them. I'd wait for the idiot masses to lynch him.

Yes its the worst scenario possible, but it still nets a wolf.

Again, not necessarily.

The psychic is about useless anyway once the MW is dead.

I repeat, I consider card flips more useful info than a bunch of people who are "green" but might be MW.

It's not that helpful to know wolves after they're dead.

And you have a reputation for being good at this game???

This is why it would be good to know what assets we have.

Only a wolf wants to "know what assets we have" to know if they can let their guard down. Humans should trust that the blues are alive and going behind the scenes, silently pushing the rest of us in the direction their limited knowledge indicates is right.

If the seer is dead we're in for a tough long haul.

Shouldn't be too bad, but why would you say that? You think the chance that BDN or (lol) Ac1 was the seer is that great? Don't worry about it. Just trust that the seer is alive and working. What's far more likely is that, like me, they don't think it's worth risking themselves for such minimal gain (especially when the primary component of that "gain" seems to be to just give you piece of mind).

if the psychic is dead, we're not at that much of a loss, and the game is plenty doable still.

The game is "plenty doable" in either scenario. You're just too reliant on the seer killing your wolves for you.

I don't like trading two blues for one red, But i really really really would like someone else to have the same info as the seer.

The only info worth passing on is if the seer actually catches a red. I've conceded that it makes much more sense for the seer to risk himself in that situation (even though I personally wouldn't do it unless I got two reds).

If the seer dies without talking to anyone, we loose all the seered greens, and whatever red he is possibly sitting on.

Seer'd greens are more a hinderence than an advantage. If the MW gets seer'd, he'd be able to float through the end of the game because no one would choose to lynch him over a non-seer'd person. This is why seer information should be more tightlipped. If it comes down to the end of the game and all we have is a pool of seer'd greens and a few wolves, the seer'd greens shoudn't be given a free pass, but knowing the fools who'd be left alive at that point, they would be.

I would be more then willing to risk a 9% chance of sacrificing the blues to get someone else with all the seers info so it can't all be lost in one night.

There is no information worth passing on so early in the game. And if the seer DID have useful information to pass on (a red), he'd have no one yet to tell it.

If that player doesn't get wolved 1 or 2 nights after he comes out i wouldn't count him/her as a given green anymore. Hell I'd be damn suspicious of him if he isn't immediately killed. The green is the seer's opening to the thread. The wolves have a very good reaon to kill him.

No... BECAUSE you wouldn't trust him, the wolves have every reason to keep him alive. Think about this from a wolf perspective. Human comes out and says "I was seer'd, psychic come to me by day's end so I can get you in touch with the seer," the damage is already done. Assuming he's legit and assuming the psychic goes along for it, killing this green won't stop the two blues from getting together. So why bother wasting a wolf attack on him? Let him live and clueless humans will decide to lynch him. There's literally no advantage to the wolves to kill a human like that right away.

The seer i not going to come out in the thread unless he absolutely has to. the day he comes out in the thread, he will immediately be killed the following night.

Not necessarily. Could be a seer'd green playing seer in the thread and the wolves could kill a green, thinking the seer is dead.

Or the wolves could let him live and play on our fears of him lying to try to get us to lynch him. After all, if the reds know who the seer is, they should want him dead. But in addition, the wolves may not even trust the "seer's" word if he comes out in the thread-- they'd probably just guess he was a seer'd green faking seer to protect the real one.

If that happened and you came out to the thread with info, the real seer would likely contact you to stop the bs seering, and you'd have to trade seer for fake seer.

And what if a red plays fake seer? You'd have two persons who claim seer who have equal credibility both claiming the role. Should we just lynch both if this happens to ensure we actually get our trade-off of one red for one blue?

If an alliance of some sort does get set up, the seer doesn't need to hold the name of the first wolf till he finds a second, he can just have a human come out with the first one.

Or he could play as a good green and get the person lynched without revealing he'd been seer'd as red. Look at yesterday... all it took was one weak-ass accusation from me to snowball into a lynch on ac1.

And we'll have two MW's running around great.

You have a really skewed perception of this game and how it is supposed to work. The game isn't supposed to be "hey look seer find wolves, pick 'em off one-by-one", it's supposed to be a game of social engineering, of logic, of deduction.

Again, I repeat. The game is supposed to be about social engineering, not one role playing the game for their team.

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)

In a true setting, there would be no private discussion. There would be no seer coming out. There would be no alliance. That's how it's SUPPOSED to be.

Obligiatory, Later in the game that person could be dead.

Then they'd go to their secondary resource.

And if that person was going to die later in the game, THEY WOULDN'T BE ANY GOOD AT HELPING THE SEER'S INFORMATION STAY ALIVE, WOULD THEY?

15/16 people disagree

God damn, if I was a wolf, I'd steamroll over the lot of you.

Afrobean16 (3:44:12): Hi, I'm the seer, I seer'd afro, manti, and fiction and they're all wolves go lynch them now please.
james92hofmann (3:45:02): ok brb making a post saying the seer came to me with reds who need to be lycnhed

The later it gets in the game, the less i am inclined to believe when some random seer comes out. Too much possibility of a wolf taking a shot at winning the game.

But a wolf couldn't try to fake it early in the game??

If I was a wolf, that's exactly the sort of thing I'd be thinking about. Building a hidden "alliance" by "seering" a bunch of greens. Would be fun as hell.

He gains an underground alliance with the psychic, and at least someone knows what assets we have that are alive.

No one needs to know what "assets" we have alive. Greens just need to trust that the seer and psychic are doing their thing behind the scenes.

The longer the seer goes without contacting someone, the better the chance is that he's dead.

If that person is dead at that point, then that person wasn't going to be useful to keeping information alive in the first place.

It's not that we want blues to win the game, it's that we want to keep useful, human beneficial information alive.

And I conceded that if a seer catches a red, he would be perfectly justified to risk himself if he so chooses. But you're advocating risking himself not to catch reds, but to GET IN TOUCH WITH THE PSYCHIC or to "keep his info alive". The only info worth keeping alive is reports of reds, so that is why the seer is justified in risking himself in that case.

If the seer gets offed randomly we loose that information and can't get it back.

A list of "greens" that easily has the MW among them is not a useful list to have come endgame. It's better for that information to be "loosed".

besides the chance of the seer getting hit tonight by random luck is 10% if we haven't killed a wolf, and 9% if we have.

Yeah... the seer's life is already risked just by the nature of the game, which is why I don't understand you thinking he should want to take additional risk on top of that when he doesn't have anything to gain from doing so at this time.

ps next time someone suggests hosting a game that will be green-driven, can we either eliminate blues completely (and adjust wolf numbers) or make it against the rules to reveal your role or information you got from the host because of your role? From a technical standpoint saying "I'm the seer" is already against the rules, because it's talking about something which is supposed to be kept private between player and host, same for seer/psychic reports. Allowing discussion of that nature allowed gameplay to shift from the original focus of social engineering and veer into some place where players see blues as the primary reason humans can win rather than wits and discussion.

[Syhto]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

afro are you ****ing serious


are you ****ing serious?

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

He says these things to log your reactions. It's not like he thinks things through

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

afro are you ****ing serious


are you ****ing serious?

uh... yes...

Why wouldn't I be?

It's not like he thinks things through

Hey, I resent that.

You're kind of right, but still, that's not a nice thing to say.

ps for people who would tl;dr my last post, basically I said:

#1: seer shouldn't risk himself if he has little or nothing to gain just because manti says to
#2: manti is too reliant on blues and therefore doesn't understand what this game is supposed to be about

[Viccica]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Wouldn't it be funny if BDN was the seer?

[Ruritsu]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Yes Gun, I spelled "Too" wrong, and thanks maki.

[u84]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

What's with this middle of the day ****?

[u84]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Syhto, don't ever change your avatar.

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Night over! Syhto was killed.

Day 2 has begun, ending in 48 hours. That's 1 PM EST 10/19/09 (Mon) insta is at 7 votes today.

1. Gun92 (james92hofmann)
2. Ac1Speakerbox (Ac1Colossus)
3. Clarinet89 (clarinet898)
4. Afrobean (Afrobean16)
5. DarkManticoreX2 (DarkManticoreX2)
6. FictionJunction (FikshonJunkshon)
7. Syhto (amanetora)
8. A2P (awesome lamer)
9. Ruritsu (Ruritsu)
10. u84 (u8477)
11. sc979 (sam97379)
12. Viccica (mmviccica)
13. emerald000 (emerald3x0)
14. tupacodaman (tupacodaman)
15. Panda Express (helljumperdragon)
16. BDN (megamngtx)

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

was anyone else unaware that u84 was playing?

[u84]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Yeah, sorry, I missed the voting phase.