TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Hey, make sure you vote guys, day ends tomorrow at noon. When most of you will probably be in school.

[Gun92]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

bolth_mann

This also, safety on Syhto. Nothing more then a safety until I get time to come on aim and talk with people.

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Effective immediately, bolth mannn has been kicked out and replaced by tupacodaman.

Game continues as normal.

[AC1speakerbox]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

bolth got maki-owned =D

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Sully has also requested a replacement via AIM. Therefore...

Also effective immediately, Panda Express is replacing Sully.

[Panda Express]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

Allow me to contain my enthusiam as I enter my first game ...

Hi people. Found out about my subbing in late at night, so really didn't get any good chats developed. Thanks to Clarinet for explaining safetys in full.

Just gonna say that Afro, you seemed to have made a whole lot of something out of a whole lot of nothing. I think AC1 was just attempting to be witty, which I'm pretty sure isn't a hangable offense, yet.

Safety on Ruritsu for the time being. Don't mind me Rur, just grabbing your name cuz its at the top.

[clarinet89]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I'm gonna have to go with a safety on a2p. I'd like to look a little closer at AC1 before we lynch him.

[sc979]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

safety on tupacodaman

yeah, I have known ac1 to play defensively, so I don't think his reaction necessarily makes him a wolf, but who knows.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I'm going to vote on AC1. And i'm actually surprising myself by doing so.

Originally i was gunning for afro, and I talked to a bunch of people about it, even shared my suspicions with Ac1 to get his thoughts on it and the entire conversation felt weird as ****.

ac1colossus (12:09:51 AM): lol
DarkManticoreX2 (12:10:10 AM): did you get my prevoius stuff
ac1colossus (12:10:20 AM): what previous stuff?
DarkManticoreX2 (12:10:38 AM): ugh i hate you i dont want to retype it all
ATTENTION (12:10:54 AM): Direct IM session initiated. What is this?
DarkManticoreX2 (12:11:14 AM): 
DarkManticoreX2 (10:40:03 PM): okay so it's bugging me

DarkManticoreX2 (10:40:32 PM): fiction posted this right?

DarkManticoreX2 (10:40:33 PM): But now that arfo set the precedent for possible non-vet/poor player n1 wolf kills by mentioning the obvious, it bothers me that BDN was killed over them.

DarkManticoreX2 (10:40:53 PM): it made me think

DarkManticoreX2 (10:41:09 PM): why wouldnt me/fiction/afro get targeted

DarkManticoreX2 (10:41:28 PM): afro said something night 1 about leaving high position players alive

DarkManticoreX2 (10:41:44 PM): and it feels weird that none of u were attacke

DarkManticoreX2 (10:42:16 PM): feels like he's trying to hide amoung similar weeds

DarkManticoreX2 (10:42:26 PM): if you know what i mean

DarkManticoreX2 (10:42:45 PM): cause it would look balls weird if fiction and afro died and i was still alive

DarkManticoreX2 (10:42:51 PM): as well as vice versa
ac1colossus (12:11:49 AM): readin
DarkManticoreX2 (12:11:59 AM): k
ac1colossus (12:12:55 AM): ok
ac1colossus (12:12:57 AM): i gotcha
DarkManticoreX2 (12:13:18 AM): which im not sure is enough to look at someone right now
DarkManticoreX2 (12:13:27 AM): but i also am bugged by this
DarkManticoreX2 (12:13:46 AM): 
DarkManticoreX2 (10:44:41 PM): i also find it weird he's so against my seer plan

DarkManticoreX2 (10:44:47 PM): i mean the seer has to come out to someone

DarkManticoreX2 (10:44:51 PM): sometime

DarkManticoreX2 (10:44:56 PM): to get his info into the thread
DarkManticoreX2 (12:14:24 AM): and the chances of coming out to a seered green later actually increase the chance of coming out to the mw
ac1colossus (12:14:56 AM): He just doesn't want to view any opinion other than his original, I think =/
DarkManticoreX2 (12:15:14 AM): what was his original idea
ac1colossus (12:15:41 AM): that this should be viewed as a situation of risk vs reward
ac1colossus (12:15:54 AM): and that thre risk far outwieghed the reward
DarkManticoreX2 (12:16:12 AM): thats totally untrue though
ac1colossus (12:16:15 AM): i know
ac1colossus (12:16:20 AM): that's what he thinks
DarkManticoreX2 (12:16:28 AM): if the seer holds off in going to a human
ac1colossus (12:16:31 AM): I've been flipflopping on this all day though lol
DarkManticoreX2 (12:16:40 AM): the chances of coming out to the mw get bigger
ac1colossus (12:16:43 AM): i think I've ended up on the side of haveing an alliance though
ac1colossus (12:16:49 AM): *having
DarkManticoreX2 (12:17:08 AM): being against having an alliance really makes me suspicious of him
DarkManticoreX2 (12:17:19 AM): because without an alliance nobody knows anything
ac1colossus (12:17:42 AM): maybe, but I don't really get any bad vibes from him so far. If he was a wolf, I'd think he'd be far less quick to accuse me
DarkManticoreX2 (12:18:10 AM): you cant know that
ac1colossus (12:18:16 AM): i suppose not
DarkManticoreX2 (12:18:20 AM): you've never played a game with him
ac1colossus (12:18:45 AM): but he did springboard himself into the wolfing picture without any other cause
ac1colossus (12:18:58 AM): but you know more about him than I do so kay
ac1colossus (12:19:16 AM): *lynching picture
DarkManticoreX2 (12:19:35 AM): how? by putting you up for a lynching?
ac1colossus (12:19:39 AM): yup
ac1colossus (12:19:47 AM): fingerpointing and whatnot
ac1colossus (12:19:57 AM): vic too
ATTENTION (12:20:20 AM): Direct IM session disconnected. What is this?
DarkManticoreX2 (12:20:42 AM): i dont know about vic, but afro's got more then one thing against him
ac1colossus (12:21:18 AM): I'm not sure where he gets off though. Why the hell would Vic come to rescue me if we were wolves together.
ac1colossus (12:21:25 AM): He's smarter than that
DarkManticoreX2 (12:21:44 AM): what?
ac1colossus (12:22:02 AM): some post said me and vic were wolves or something
DarkManticoreX2 (12:22:06 AM): not me
DarkManticoreX2 (12:22:16 AM): lets get this stright first
DarkManticoreX2 (12:22:37 AM): i think that afro is a wolf or at least a good wolf candidate
ac1colossus (12:22:40 AM): http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showpost.php?p=3258128&postcount=78
ac1colossus (12:22:42 AM): that one
DarkManticoreX2 (12:22:45 AM): not you or vic
ac1colossus (12:22:49 AM): ok
ac1colossus (12:23:11 AM): that was him manipulating vics post btw, lol
DarkManticoreX2 (12:23:57 AM): eh afro can think what he wants to think
DarkManticoreX2 (12:24:19 AM): i dont see enough there to get that
ac1colossus (12:24:50 AM): enough in mine and vic's posts to get afro's conclusion? (just clarifying)
DarkManticoreX2 (12:25:09 AM): i see vic's post as a joke
DarkManticoreX2 (12:25:23 AM): and i don't really see your posts a wolfy
DarkManticoreX2 (12:25:27 AM): more like
DarkManticoreX2 (12:25:43 AM): "omg i havent played twg in a month and im totally pumped"
DarkManticoreX2 (12:26:21 AM): I feel like afro's jumping on posts that aren't really posts
ac1colossus is offline (12:26:36 AM)
hates random disconnecting =(

Your IM will be delivered when the buddy goes online.
DarkManticoreX2 (12:26:42 AM): in addition to what i said above
DarkManticoreX2 (12:27:04 AM): did i mention i hate you
ac1colossus is available (12:32:11 AM)
hates random disconnecting =(
ac1colossus (12:32:16 AM): lol
ac1colossus (12:32:30 AM): i didn't get the above
DarkManticoreX2 (12:32:48 AM): what was the last line you got before "in addition to what i said above"
ac1colossus (12:33:03 AM): i see vic's post
DarkManticoreX2 (12:33:12 AM): 
DarkManticoreX2 (12:25:23 AM): and i don't really see your posts a wolfy

DarkManticoreX2 (12:25:27 AM): more like

DarkManticoreX2 (12:25:43 AM): "omg i havent played twg in a month and im totally pumped"

DarkManticoreX2 (12:26:21 AM): I feel like afro's jumping on posts that aren't really posts
ac1colossus (12:33:28 AM): lol!
ac1colossus (12:33:35 AM): pretty much'
DarkManticoreX2 (12:34:07 AM): so tell me
DarkManticoreX2 (12:34:14 AM): if you dont like my afro vote
ac1colossus (12:34:21 AM): I can go with it
DarkManticoreX2 (12:34:25 AM): and i assume you dont want me to put it on you
DarkManticoreX2 (12:34:34 AM): what better option do you present
ac1colossus (12:34:47 AM): I just don't want it to seem like a revenge vote, but I can go with that
DarkManticoreX2 (12:34:57 AM): no i want to know
DarkManticoreX2 (12:35:04 AM): you think afro i human
DarkManticoreX2 (12:35:10 AM): fine i can go with that for a while
DarkManticoreX2 (12:35:18 AM): whos a better choice
DarkManticoreX2 (12:35:51 AM): and why
ac1colossus (12:36:17 AM): I'm really starting yo have second thoughts about him though. For the most part, I just saw that as him being himself. I guess if we had to have a second choice, I'd still say gun for the reasons in...
ac1colossus (12:36:50 AM): http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showpost.php?p=3258106&postcount=71
ac1colossus (12:37:33 AM): Do you remember that one game where I called gun rule on his ass and he flipped out?
ac1colossus (12:37:36 AM): and he was a wolf
DarkManticoreX2 (12:37:48 AM): okay, did you do that this game?
ac1colossus (12:38:08 AM): kinda, but not really. It just seemed like he got mad at a clear joke
DarkManticoreX2 (12:38:13 AM): log?
ac1colossus (12:38:21 AM): thread
ac1colossus (12:38:27 AM): it wasn't a good joke either
ac1colossus (12:38:30 AM): =/
ac1colossus (12:38:33 AM): it was dumbn
DarkManticoreX2 (12:38:49 AM): you mean his post on the bottom of p2 or 3
ac1colossus (12:39:11 AM): yeah. he wasn't really gitting mad, but i kind of interpreted it that way
ac1colossus (12:39:14 AM): http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showpost.php?p=3256984&postcount=38
ac1colossus (12:39:29 AM): plus, he's active which is very uncharacteristic of him
DarkManticoreX2 (12:39:45 AM): active is not a charachteristic of his wolf game
DarkManticoreX2 (12:39:46 AM): =/
ac1colossus (12:40:20 AM): I guess you're right but he could be trying to switch it up?
Like I said, I've got nothing better than Afro
DarkManticoreX2 (12:40:36 AM): you make me feel uneasy
ac1colossus (12:40:39 AM): ?
DarkManticoreX2 (12:40:45 AM): you dont want to vote afro
DarkManticoreX2 (12:40:52 AM): but you'll do it anyway
ac1colossus (12:41:00 AM): no I think he's the best choice at this point
DarkManticoreX2 (12:41:07 AM): why
ac1colossus (12:41:14 AM): cause there isn't anyone better
DarkManticoreX2 (12:41:14 AM): because you want to get out of a lynch
ac1colossus (12:41:20 AM): lol
ac1colossus (12:41:23 AM): that
DarkManticoreX2 (12:41:25 AM): or because you actually think hes a good choice
ac1colossus (12:42:33 AM): because i think he's being needlessly .. what's the word I'm looking for?... he doesn't want the alliance for no good reason
DarkManticoreX2 (12:43:23 AM): overprotective is probably the word
ac1colossus (12:43:27 AM): i guess
DarkManticoreX2 (12:44:02 AM): originally i was going to go with afro, now i'm not so sure
ac1colossus (12:44:22 AM): I don't see anyone better
ac1colossus (12:44:49 AM): I honestly don't know what I was thinking with the whole gun thing
DarkManticoreX2 (12:45:03 AM): you neglect to consider yourself
DarkManticoreX2 (12:45:16 AM): you made yourself look really really bed in that convo
ac1colossus (12:45:19 AM): i know
ac1colossus (12:46:00 AM): not one of my better choices
ac1colossus (12:46:21 AM): I keep saying that I need to work on my being overly defensive, but I never get any better =(
DarkManticoreX2 (12:46:42 AM): the fact that you're willing to stick up for afro in the thread, and then willing to vote for him to save your hide irks me
DarkManticoreX2 (12:46:53 AM): and it irks me a lot
ac1colossus (12:47:24 AM): oh come on that's not what it's like.
my hide was "saved" long before I started considering afro
DarkManticoreX2 (12:48:48 AM): considering you have two votes on you
DarkManticoreX2 (12:49:01 AM): and nobody else has more then one no i dont think so
ac1colossus (12:49:06 AM): i guess you're right.
i didn't think about that

Long story short:

Manti: heres several good reasons to vote for afro
Ac1: I think afro is human
Manti: You know you'll probably die if you don't vote for afro
Ac1: Ok lets vote for Afro!
Manti: Yeah that's not suspicious AT ALL

Double spaced stuff was copied over from a previous convo i had with someone, and is my base reasoning for being suspicious of afro. However, unless Afro and Ac1 are trying to manipulate relationships really early, I don't think they can both be wolves.

[A2P]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

ac1

Awesome Lamer (12:24:55 AM):	and one point
Awesome Lamer (12:25:01 AM):	is that whenever you suspect someone is lying
Awesome Lamer (12:25:14 AM):	quickly change the subject
Awesome Lamer (12:25:19 AM):	or drift attention away from them
Awesome Lamer (12:25:24 AM):	if they follow with you
Awesome Lamer (12:25:26 AM):	they're lying

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I'll bandwagon!

AC1

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

I don't like how afro's so adamantly against my plan.

I don't see any advantage that is worth the risk. Can you explain to me why the seer and psychic getting together is such a good and necessary thing? Even assuming one subtracted from the seering pool, is there anything else that warrants putting both of our blues at risk?

You don't have to have the psychic come out to the human, but it shrinks the player pool that the seer has to look at.

Except that the seer has to come out and endanger himself to reduce the pool by one. Is it worth it? At least in a "normal" game, the threat of guardian would cause the MW to act exactly as a human would in your example, but if the MW they could take out both of our blues within 2 days.

And yes, the other blue could then immediately call the seer'd person on it (assuming the blue wolfed WOULDN'T otherwise be killed... hard to say given first night choice of BDN), but then we'd be trading our two blues for one red. Do you think that's a good trade? I'd be willing to trade one blue for one red, but in this sort of game, I don't think we should risk giving up both of them just to get one red.

Also: the seer'd party could be MW and STILL act as a normal human would. Help establish the alliance and get themselves a nice seat of power behind the two blues. From there, the seer'd person could offer themselves as a front to reach out and establish more members of the alliance (under the premise that he would claim himself as the seer, and if he talks to the MW, he'd be wolfed instead of the seer). They could even help the seer identify and kill the wolves for real ("hey, seer, you should look at X, I think he is a wolf" then when it turns up red be like "yeah we got one!"). Then when it inevitably gets to endgame with both blues wolfed already and it comes down to MW, one seer'd green, and one non-seer'd player, the alliance members would team up to take down the "last wolf".

Why do I have to explain these scenarios? Geez man, if I was a wolf this game I'd be walloping you all with these ideas that you're overlooking.

it also gives the psychic and seer a way to pincer the MW if by some unlucky chance the MW is seered. (seer gets killed Psychic goes wait wtf and lynches the MW the following day.) If the seer does just come out to a seered green alone, we loose the seer without catching the MW in the process

Why would the seer come out to a seer'd green? What advantage does this give anyone? It risks his existence without good reason. I think your brain has been addled by games which rely on alliances. This game is designed in a way to PREVENT them. I think it's foolish of you to suggest we should attempt to rely on them in spite of the prevention in place.

I mean, in a NORMAL "no guardian" game, there wouldn't be a MW. Seering results would be 100% verification. The seer would still be able to build a hidden pooled alliance, so long as the greens trust the seer (i.e., a wolf could potentially fake and collect themselves another pool of trusted followers). But in this game, the only seering result that's truly accurate is red and blue. Nothing else should necessarily be trusted at face value.

The seer has to come out to someone at some point.

Please explain to me why you believe this. Is it just because you've never played a game where the seer had little advantage to doing so? Is it because you're just so used to there being a huge advantage to the seer coming out in one way or another? Is it just because you want to sacrifice your MW in exchange for removing the seer from play before they take a look at you or your partners?

he has a better chance coming out to a seered green (9% chance of wolf) then getting a nonseered person to come out for him (25% chance of wolf)

This is right, but that comes after the point where there is minimal advantage to coming out in the first place. Obviously, it wouldn't hurt for the seer to talk privately with the person they seer'd to see what they think (but this is true even if the result is RED), but they don't need to reveal themselves and risk getting wolfed by the MW without getting anything in return.

And you're also ignoring the point that in a game where the seer can't PUBLICLY come out, there is realistic chance of wolf faking seer privately. If someone came to me and said "I'm the seer and I seer'd you last night", I wouldn't trust them. I wouldn't out them since odds are good they'd be legit, but I certainly wouldn't trust them completely like I would in a PUBLIC coming out.

I'm gonna have to go with a safety on a2p. I'd like to look a little closer at AC1 before we lynch him.

I explained this last game.

If someone is a worthy lynching target (which people think he is), don't wait and ask for him to be seer'd.

Don't know who would possibly want to keep him alive to waste a seering on other than a wolf partner...

DarkManticoreX2 (10:42:16 PM): feels like he's trying to hide amoung similar weeds

Yeah, this is seriously exactly what I'm trying to do. I want to live as long as possible. Been a while since I've played a game like this and I intend to get some fun out of it. Manti, you might have been ready to die night 1, but I'm not planning on going down as early as that.

DarkManticoreX2 (10:44:47 PM): i mean the seer has to come out to someone

DarkManticoreX2 (10:44:51 PM): sometime

DarkManticoreX2 (10:44:56 PM): to get his info into the thread

I would say this should only happen if the seer nails two or more wolves. If they only hit one, they should do their best to point out the wolfy things that person does and get them lynched, but they shouldn't expose themselves (unless they feel like their life is worth the one wolf's life). But if they get two or more, they could absolutely trade their life for those two wolves I think.

DarkManticoreX2 (12:14:24 AM): and the chances of coming out to a seered green later actually increase the chance of coming out to the mw

If I was the seer, I'd probably just publicly announce myself to PROVE WHO I AM. I'd be killing myself, but I'd also be essentially confirmed that I was telling the truth and we'd be able to knock out 2 wolves right away.

But apart from that, the first night's seering does appear to have the highest likelihood of being human, so LATER IN THE GAME, that could be the person the seer comes out to (or if they've been wolfed or whatever, night 2, etc.). But again, I'd say it's better for the seer to wait until they have something worth dying for, then publicly reveal themselves to confirm the info they're giving is legit so that everyone will trust them.

I know I probably wouldn't trust someone with seering information enough to lynch based solely on that unless they publicly reveal themselves.

But ****... even a wolf could fake a seer'd list of reds late in the game and then wolf themselves to make it appear legit. I guess they probably wouldn't risk it since the seer would probably still be alive though, eh?

nobody knows anything

Rather than "Simplicity", the title of this game should have been "Nobody Knows Anything". That is the point of the game, bro!

DarkManticoreX2 (12:46:42 AM): the fact that you're willing to stick up for afro in the thread, and then willing to vote for him to save your hide irks me

Actually, that makes perfect sense for even a green. A green knows his role 100%, so in order to spare a human from being lynched (himself), he should be willing to lynch almost anyone else in play, even someone he otherwise believes to be human.

ps I don't appreciate such blatant bandwagon voting >

[Syhto]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

what the hell afro ill respond to that in a week when i actually finish reading it

[Syhto]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

ok afro i have officially come to the conclusion that you are a wolf. jk.

but i really have come to the conclusion that I shouldn't ever disagree with your game strategy or things will be twisted around on me to make it seem as though I am a wolf

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

no, arfo. Strength in numbers. Half the game is intuition and reading players, you know that. The seer should come out to someone at some point. I mean, you know that very well.

I suppose that in your opinion the seer shouldn't come out unless he's seered a red. Martyrdom is cool and all but if you take a leap of faith and it turns out all right why not have the green work as a representative - a temporary alliance that keeps information flowing whilst protecting the seer. It's not like we'd know the difference the first time around.

Player A: "Player X has been seered red. Vote, etc"
Everyone: "cool!"
Player A has been killed.

We'd assume the seer is dead, wouldn't we.

case in point: the seer is of no use to us if he's dead. The potential to go beyond sacrificial behaviour is there and should be taken as soon as possible, though not without caution.