Yeah, I thought of that the second I made that post.
I just figured I'd look even more stupid if I corrected myself after calling folks dumb.
I guess that's exacly what I have to do now though.
After thinking about it more, shouldn't that be the scenario in ANY game where there's a mw? I mean really, just because guardians may be included in other games doesn't mean that a mw will screw over an alliance any less than if there wasn't one. (I hope that made sense.)
It's a 9% chance of needlessly handing the game to the wolves.
[Math Nazi]
Well, its actually lower. Theres actually a one in fifteen chance of him hitting the MW as he could hit the other wolves too mind you, in which case he'll have to do something else. This brings it down to a 6.66% chance of hitting the MW.[/Math Nazi]
I'm semi for Manti's plan, however, I can see why some people would rather avoid the risk. The only thing the seer could do without coming out somehow is seer people and be unable to say anything about it. The psychic alone can only confirm if our lynch hit and I guess pass judgment on bandwagoners if we miss, which seems rather weak. I'm probably missing some other strategy, but it seems like they're both really weak alone. Thats the only reason I like Manti's plan, feel free to tear this post to shreads XD
=__=' My sig was 22 pixels too tall, so this is here instead...
the thing I dislike the most about explaining things, predicting things and giving players 'tips' on night one is that it sets a false precedent for us to work on.
That doesn't strike me as a lack of surprise, it reads more like he can't believe the wolves targeted BDN. Who knows, I might be wrong but thats what it sounds like to me.
the thing is (and I don't have concrete evidence or anything, mind you) it feels as if that wouldn't have happened had we been saved the trouble of reading all of these comments and suggestions about how the game should be run. Especially when they're about wolf strategy instead of human defense, which shouldn't really be discussed in the first place because the procedures for this game are so obvious.
I'm not really onto anything here. I'm just feeling uneasy. Had makilaz, clarinet or emerald died then I wouldn't really be feeling like this. They're all good players but are rarely seen killed n1. Especially after arfo setting the precedent for possible non-vet/poor player n1 wolf kills by mentioning the obvious. We all know that a vet staying alive past night 3 doesn't make him a wolf. But there's a difference between expecting everyone to understand that (and I do) and mentioning it in the thread. As wolves, anyone should be a fine n1 kill. The only reason specific players get offed is due to their reputation. Nothing more, nothing less.
That said, Manti dying isn't a 100% guarantee, and if it doesn't occur usually quiet and/or poor players get killed. i.e. gun (quiet) rzr (poor). It's usually one or the other. A vet or a poor player. Why BDN? a player people mostly know for his games and not his style or influence in TWG? And we all know he doesn't suck either. He just wouldn't come to mind as a n1 kill. ever.
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