TWG XIX: Atomic Apocalypse: It just keeps going and going...

[Afrobean]

He brought it up to me before he posted it and was upset.

Me too, but then again, he had to for it to seem legit.

[QreepyBORIS]

I think that Tps was probably genuinely on vacation. Either that or I am underestimating him by quite a little bit. I am pretty sure he's not a wolf.

Tass was number 2 on my suspicions list. His death is actually kind of an advantage to the humans. I have no idea why Afrobean is not dead yet--the guardian is a guaranteed kill, and every single player knows who it is. Not only that, but killing the guardian (obviously) prevents anyone from being guarded in the future.

So, who is my number one suspicion? Talisman. I just don't trust the guy. He was (I think) the first to figure out who the guardian was (completely on his own, too), and since he did that, if the guardian survived the next few rounds, that essentially guaranteed that he would survive as long as the guardian did. If he was first (or so) to find out who the guardian was and the guardian did not die even though he knew, who would suspect him of being a wolf?

Sure, Talisman could have just not told Afrobean that he knew he was the guardian and wolfed him instead, but that would not guarantee his survival. See, nobody would suspect him in particular for wolfing the guardian, but he would not have anybody's trust, which is a very dangerous thing to lack. By telling Afrobean he knew he was the guardian and subsequently not killing him, talisman gained Afrobean's trust, virtually guaranteeing his own survival. Would you rather not be a suspect in general, or would you rather have somebody's undying trust? It doesn't matter what role you are--the latter is always preferable, and works to great advantage if you are the master wolf in particular.

Also, if talisman simply said that his number one suspect was killed, that would leave him perfectly free to target somebody else--an easy target, a guaranteed kill. Who better than myself, whom nobody trusts? I die, talisman was wrong, and nobody has a second thought about it. Repeat the process with Tps, another completely unlikely candidate to be a wolf. He's camping, and someone died during the night. I don't think he was lying, although he certainly is not prone to telling the absolute truth all the time (Sinsin, anyone?). Talisman can get away with this all too easily, since he has the Guardian's trust. Then, he wins. Simple. And talisman is certainly an intelligent and experienced enough person to execute this.

So, why do you all suspect me? Because I managed to point out a wolf due to some handy guesswork? Because I tried hardcre to get him killed for two full TWG days? I guess so. Because obviously the wolves' sole objective is to kill all the other wolves. You would have tried to do this very same thing and kill Eric, too, but the wolves tried to before you could get to him. So, if death is a repayment for my service, then you all need to pull your heads out of your god damned asses, wait for the next night to pass, and vote Talisman.

So, without further ado, talisman.

[evilbutterfly]

Oh, I never said when this day ends. Let's see...you'll probably insta somebody before it's over, but let's set it at Tuesday, 11:59pm. Any problems? Too bad. :P

[Afrobean]

Wow. That was very much thought out...

This sucks now, because there is almost no way that all the suspects will go down.

Damn. I'm mad. Well, it will be out of my hands if this game goes any further, since I'm surely going down tonight.

If tommorow comes, remaining humans, be very careful. We only get one day after today, and if you last two humans choose wrong, we lose. Think about it: The first game with two guardian saves being lost to the wolves. Wouldn't that suck?

[Afrobean]

My above post was directed at Qreepy's post above eb's.

[talisman]

but if I'm the last wolf, why will everyone have to "wait for the next night to pass"? unconscious slip?

tass was my number one suspect, that should have been obvious. (remember all my posts where I said tass/afro).

and I was the last to figure out the guardian, sonny. well maybe the only person to actually "figure" it out since everyone else got told before me.

here are my pms to afro:

From: talisman
To: Afrobean
Posted: Sep 02, 2005 - 08:18 PM
Subject: TWG stuff
I want you to know that I am no longer suspicious of you at all, since I figure there's a good chance you're the guardian.

A)I'm not the guardian.
B)tps isn't the guardian.
C)eric isn't the guardian.
D)tps told me he thought you were human 100%, but that he wasn't sure about tass.
E)tps openly voiced suspicion yesterday about nforcer and eric, pretty much guaranteeing that
F)nforcer isn't the guardian.
G)from that convo you posted it's obvious qreepy isn't the guardian.
H)qreepy knows who the guardian is and eric knows that qreepy knows, yet qreepy voted for tass, meaning that most likely
I)tass isn't the guardian.

I'm obviously not going to post this since it would give this away to the real wolf, although that may not matter (see below). I also figure this is why you've been putting dumb votes on tps.

The real wolf (tass or tps) has undoubtedly also figured this out... yet I can't imagine they'll kill you until the very end. Especially because it seems you and tass have such a close relationship and because if tps killed you before then it would look weird if he didn't die afterwards. But who knows.

In any event, take a close look at both tass and tps. You seem to be fairly tight with tass for some reason, but analyze him anyways.

----

From: Afrobean
To: talisman
Posted: Sep 03, 2005 - 05:37 AM
Subject: Re: TWG stuff Quote message

I want you to know that I am no longer suspicious of you at all, since I figure there's a good chance you're the guardian.

A)I'm not the guardian.
B)tps isn't the guardian.
C)eric isn't the guardian.
D)tps told me he thought you were human 100%, but that he wasn't sure about tass.
E)tps openly voiced suspicion yesterday about nforcer and eric, pretty much guaranteeing that
F)nforcer isn't the guardian.
G)from that convo you posted it's obvious qreepy isn't the guardian.
H)qreepy knows who the guardian is and eric knows that qreepy knows, yet qreepy voted for tass, meaning that most likely
I)tass isn't the guardian.

I'm obviously not going to post this since it would give this away to the real wolf, although that may not matter (see below). I also figure this is why you've been putting dumb votes on tps.

The real wolf (tass or tps) has undoubtedly also figured this out... yet I can't imagine they'll kill you until the very end. Especially because it seems you and tass have such a close relationship and because if tps killed you before then it would look weird if he didn't die afterwards. But who knows.

In any event, take a close look at both tass and tps. You seem to be fairly tight with tass for some reason, but analyze him anyways.

If Tass were a wolf, I'd be dead by now. I told him yesterday, before night started. If he was a wolf, he'd have NOTHING to gain from letting me live. The wolf wants me dead bad... unless...

If Tps is the wolf, he needs me alive. If I die, and Tps isn't wolfed right after that, Tps will likely get lynched. So if he IS the last wolf, I won't be dying any time soon.

And it also seems that since you've figured it out (TOOK YA LONG ENOUGH UGH) that EVERYONE should know at this point. Knowing this, I should die tonight.

Also, it would seem that you're either human or you're a very cunning wolf who would be willing to risk your life by openly addressing me by my role.

I am leaning to human now though. If you were a wolf, you would have simply assumed that I was the guardian and wolfed me because even if I'm not the guardian, I'm accepted as human and I'm posting lots of ideas.

---

From: talisman
To: Afrobean
Posted: Sep 03, 2005 - 06:25 AM
Subject: Re: TWG stuff
The only reason I can see for tass not killing you til the end is because perhaps he thinks he can manipulate you, and when it's one wolf and a bunch of humans, getting people to vote for whom you want is critical. And he has done the same thing today with nforcer that he did with cstar.

If it's tps, well, he got lucky as balls with you guarding him. I won't say he deserves to win if that's the case, just cause I want the humans to win, but he probably deserves some bonus points or something.

PS I suspected yesterday that the guardian was either you, tass, or qreepy but it wasn't until today that the proof (that convo you posted) arrived. Sorry for voting you and (#$%.

---

There was more, but that should be enough to show that tass was indeed my number one suspect.


also

Because I tried hardcre to get him killed for two full TWG days?

I wouldn't say that I'm hardcore going for Omega, but nobody sticks out like he does to me at the moment.

[Tps222]

Ok, back everyone, around 12:45. Just caught up on the thread, and it seems as we are in a great position to win this game, with Eric being guarded and all.

TPS's suspicion list

Afro-Guardian, not a wolf.
Eric-Saved, wouldn't wolf self being the last one left-Human.
Qreepy- Helped in the lynching of Omega. Could have been planned, dunno. Possible Wolf.
Talisman-Fishy as well- not sure what to make of it, did send me the PM's, though, could have been edited-Possibly a wolf
TPS- Strange PM's, admit's PM's were by him. Saved, seer was wolfed, trust in him was lost partially, went camping for the weekend, got back. (Yes, I'm referring to myself in the 3rd person)-Human.

For me, it's simple. We lynch both of them in order, then we win. Though, for you peeps, I'm a suspect, though the odds still favor us.

[QreepyBORIS]

Unconcious slip? What do you mean? I think when I was talking I was assuming that I was going to die. So I'm not sure what you're talking about.

And that's fine that Tass was your "number one suspect". All you had to do was kill him, and then move on to someone who you knew would be easy to lynch. That's a wolf's job, isn't it? Killing Tass during the night was all that was needed to do to set up another human's death. It is absolutely irrelevant that talisman said that Tass was his prime suspect. It does nothing to negate that you are almost certainly a wolf. Neither does the fact that you figured out that Afro was the guardian on your own, and neither does the possibility that you were last to find out (I actually think you knew before I did, although I could be mistaken).

And as to my apparent self-contradiction, I apologize. But it also changes nothing.



So, am I to understand that your whole post was a giant red herring, talisman? Its only purpose was seemingly to distract whoever read it from the certainty that you are a wolf. It did absolutely nothing to prove your innocence or my guilt.

[Afrobean]

OK. OK. I got it.

We lynch Qreepy today. If the game continues, then Qreepy was human. Meaning that we should listen to what he's been saying, right? Ok, so we lynch Qreepy today, then Talisman tommorow. Only one left that could be a wolf after Talisman is Tps and if Tps played me well enough to get him saved when he's a wolf, then I think he really does deserve to win.

Any fallacies in this thinking? Besides of course giving up the game if Tps really is the wolf.

EDIT: typo.

[QreepyBORIS]

And the other fallacy is that I die on this day as opposed to Talisman, ending the game a day late (and with me being dead. :P). Also, if we kill me today, Afro will die in the night, leaving Tps and Eric (and somebody else? I don't know) to kill talisman--and what if one of them disagrees with my idea? Then the humans lose. If we kill Talisman today, we win. But if you are not sure of that (and you aren't, naturally), then no matter who dies in the night, everyone will pretty certainly kill me the next day, ending the game if I were a wolf (which I already stated I am not--the game would end when Talisman dies, anyhow. :P).

If we kill Talisman today, the humans have a greater chance of winning, no matter how you slice it. If we kill me today, it is somewhat less certain that the humans will win.

And I don't think we have to worry that Tps is a wolf.

[talisman]

hell I'll vote myself tomorrow, if qreepy is human. tps deserves the win if he managed to send in a pm while camping.

qreepy I was just pointing out holes in your argument, that's all. I reread the part I said was a slip and I get it now... you were speaking about voting for me tomorrow if you get killed today. which is just fine with me.

[talisman]

qreepy you're wrong... I want people to vote for me tomorrow. I'll do it myself. That's how confident I am you're the last wolf. And if you're not? shrug.

And honestly guys, who do you think has a better chance of manipulating either eric (because that's what it comes down to)

Qreepy, who has met the guy and knows him pretty well, or me, who hasn't even spoken to him this game?

[QreepyBORIS]

I've met the guy twice. That hardly constitutes knowing him pretty well (although I would like to, heh).

I have only talked to Eric a couple times regarding this game though. And you can probably take it from him that I have never even tried to manipulate him.


EDIT: Goofy little weird fix.

[ImEric12]

Yeah, Noah has never actually tried to convince me of anything, though we have discussed the game a few times.

I'm not placing a vote either way, right now, though.

[talisman]

well you'd better start thinking about how you're going to do it because you'll have to get him to vote tps tomorrow somehow.

I for one can promise that I will suicide myself tomorrow if qreepy is human. I'll literally throw the game to tps/eric (wouldn't it be hilarious if eric were the wolf?).