TWG CLXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I can talk about the reason why I didn't want the fake/real KitB to happen between DBP and raeko now

I KNOW that the wolves had a role to counter my role

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

Wouldn't be surprised if it was mml and raeko. MML came in and voted as soon I started talking about the Raeko/dbp vote split to see if Sunfan was right

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I can talk about the reason why I didn't want the fake/real KitB to happen between DBP and raeko now

I KNOW that the wolves had a role to counter my role

Whoa

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I don't know how they counter it or what it does exactly
I just know what I've said

[roundbox]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

Is it bad to think that dabackpack might have been truthful in his claim? Might be tinfoil here

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

Is it bad to think that dabackpack might have been truthful in his claim? Might be tinfoil here

I believe that he got a role. I believe his role was a inverted strength or whatever. I don't believe he was town because of the way he described the role he got

It "greatly downgrades requested wolf powers" is what it says

which I think means that a bunch of towns should be able to request blues without buffing up the red powers too much

This reads like a wolf role especially with him describing what it means. It looks like all he did was switch blue and wolf.

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I also don't believe he's the kind of person to get important details like that accidentally wrong.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I am currently working on a mega-post

if roundbox is a wolf and Lar doomed him by instaing early, then that's legitimately fucking hilarious and it would make me so fucking happy

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

If raeko is a wolf, this game has some semblance of sense. I think Haku's claim looks horrid for her.

If inD is a wolf, he is currently break-dancing his way across the Sea of Galilee in open defiance of the science of surface tension. The dying then coming back to life makes very little sense if he is a wolf.

If WV is a wolf, he is currently moonwalking his way across the Sea of Galilee in open defiance of the science of surface tension, but I guess its like possible? I haven't evaluated him as a potential wolf in a really, really long time and either way it just really, really feels like he's town right now

If roundbox is a wolf, he sure got mad about that card he was given in a way that I don't think he would ever do as a wolf. His reaction was complete, complete spaghetti, and discounted two important things:

1) It called for Lar to be banned from TWG at least twice instead of calling Lar a wolf for what he did, and this discounts what Lar did as a wolf being a good strategic move, which is what it was if Lar is a wolf.
2) It assumed the worst possible world where there are 3 wolves alive and just kind of sounded scared of that more than evaluating whether or not that world is ever likely.

Additionally, its also very selfish because, as I said, he had 48 hours to cast the vote, irregardless of how spoopy casting the purple vote was, and he was literally the person that pointed out that the votes were not optional so it was and is his own damn fault if he dies as a result of this.

I guess its still possible for him to be a wolf, it just really doesn't feel like he's a wolf right now. Its definitely me misreading the spaghetti if he is, and I think I'm going to have to rescind my promise to him; pending night actions.

If Charu is a wolf then he is playing in a way that I've never seen him play before and if he's a wolf he's also fucking killing it right now, same as inD and WV. If he is a wolf, he is doing the worm across the Sea of Galilee in open defiance of the science of surface tension.

If Lar is a wolf then he's alone or /maybe/ with one of the breakdancers, since he's not with me, probably not with raeko, haku's probably just town and the Lar/roundbox world is too hilarious to me for it to ever exist. He is not out of his wolf range and honestly Charu we're at the point of the game where I think the 7 minute read shouldn't have serious weight anymore because we are getting closer to endgame

If Hakulyte is a wolf then I will drown in the Sea of Galilee because it might legitimately break my brain for him to make that claim against raeko as a wolf combined with the general reactions he's had to being pushed.

*this was made before I did my wagonomics, some of my opinions change a little bit after looking at wagonomics

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Precarious is only a wolf if we're really, really lucky.
The votes on him were:
knights (town), mellon (probs wolf), Charu (probs town), sunfan (town) & Syhto (town).

raeko's vote, assuming it was the second vote to be placed, seems unnecessary if they're w/w considering Charu was a viable wagon. If the team is EXACTLY prec/raeko/charu then this game is just like so fucking fucked in so many ways, but that's the only world in which I see raeko busing like that on Prec and that world is so bonkers that I don't think it really exists.

Syhto was town and Haku's brow might furrow when he reads this but there was no vigi that ever shoots her there and she was obvious town. You don't need anymore than that to know she was town.

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5 -- MixMasterLar -- Wayward Vagabond (45), roundbox (43), theknightsofneeee (133), the sun fan (135), inDheart (63)
5 -- Funnygurl555 -- DaBackpack (70), Charu (122), mellon_collie (21), DarkManticoreX2 (39), Hakulyte (82)
2 -- mellon_collie -- Funnygurl555 (30), MixMasterLar (45)

was the wagon when funny bit the dust.

The Lar wagon is as pure as the sound of a perfectly tuned Welsh harp.
WV is moonwalking if wolf, roundbox is a wolf not very often and I guess is the only real potential wolf candidate but its not a strong one, neee is town, sunfan is town, and inD is breakdancing if wolf. Only possible wolf I see here is roundbox and I don't think that's the world.

Funny's wagon is filthy imo.
DBP is a good wolf candidate, Charu is doing the worm if wolf, raeko doesn't look very good, Manti is a question mark and that makes him a decent potential wolf at this point (going back to this, wagonomics when he was lynched make me think he was likely town), and Haku is probably town.
That's 3 decent wolf candidates and 2 probable towns so this wagon is just filthy. Wolves voted on Funny, and, at most, one voted for Lar unless we're just getting styled on to a point that I'm straight up unfamiliar with.

Because wolves almost certainly voted for Funny, and towns probably voted en masse for Lar, I think that Funny was like >90% town totally discarding my read of her. I think that this looks abysmal for Lar's town cred and makes me a lot more confident about killing him since wolves were almost certaily voting to keep him alive.

Its silly that the two wagons were the ones not voting one another btw. I know neee pointed that out but its still funny. This is probably the most atypical FFR voting wagon I've seen in a very, very long time but then there's that last little bit that's a perfect fit.

Neee was town. Simple as that

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DBP (1): Charu
Raeko (3): Sunfan, MML, indheart
Haku (2): Roundbox, manti
Manti (3): DBP, raeko, WV
Not voting: Haku

This wagon isn't quite as beautiful as the previous one. It should be noted that Manti attempted to vote for raeko at the last second, but didn't quite get it off in time.

IDC about Charu voting for DBP or about Haku not voting beyond you should fucking vote, friendo.

Raeko's wagon was Sunfan (town), MML (probs wolf) & inD (breakdancing if wolf). I said earlier that MML could be a bus but idk it kinda doesn't feel that way too much anymore. I'm not as good about knowing when Lar is busing, I think as I am about, say, Charu. I really wish raeko died over Manti but w/e. If DBP is to be believed, then Manti voting for raeko would've resulted in a KitB which would've been strange but probably answered a few questions before they were asked. DBP was also kind of claiming a role very similar to the power role that I had, but w/e, this is mostly meant to be an "on paper" thing. I don't think that the wagon honestly looks really much of anything. Counting Manti's pseudo-vote, the wagon looks wolfier so w/e.

Manti's wagon was DBP's potential double-vote (good wolf candidate), raeko (probs wolf) and WV (moonwalking if wolf). This wagon looks... pretty bad, especially with DBP's vote or double vote. Manti didn't look great before, especially with his pushed of Haku/funny from the day before and I mean there's a snowball's chance in hell that he was a hit, but its looking like he was town.

Roundbox's Haku vote was bad. I don't like it in hindsight too much, but its not very many points against him. Manti's vote was practically on raeko so the Haku wagon is kind of not too much of a thing. Roundbox and Manti combined seem like 2 town, I guess, so maybe the wolves could've jumped on that but decided not to, idk.

inD died and then came back to life. I have a theory on this that I will post at 12:59 tonight but ultimately, I do think he was targeted by wolves as town, and if he wasn't then legitimately what the fuck.

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5 -- DaBackpack -- Hakulyte (27), Wayward Vagabond (70), mellon_collie (7), roundbox (28), MixMasterLar (14)
2 -- mellon_collie -- the sun fan (74), Charu (54)
1 -- MixMasterLar -- DaBackpack (104)
1 -- not voting -- inDheart (24)

the wagon here was basically predetermined, so I won't talk about this one too much.

If I go off of what the paper says, DBP was a wolf. If I follow my heart, he was town, but at this point, the only other real potential wolf that has much credence is like possibly Precarious?

The world opens up a little bit if raeko is town to include Manti as a wolf, but then DBP would've been busing so it still makes very little sense.

I've never, ever seen DBP appeal like that as a wolf. He was trying very hard. He did wait until the last second to reappear, and I know if neee were alive he would've been calling that wolfy when it was happening, but the appeal was a little bit too much for me when he mentioned something that I don't think he's talked publicly about (iirc it was posted in TGB like 3 years ago) and that I don't think anyone but me remembers so it was just like genuine frustration or a direct appeal to me specifically for really no good reason that I can see.

At this point, in hindsight, he was probably just a wolf. I can openly admit that. The best possible world for us right now though is DBP/Prec/x, since he voted for Funny and voted for Manti when he easily could've chosen someone else, so unless there was some insane nightphase shenanigans, or unless we hit the jackpot on d0 (this I think involves raeko being town), then there are somehow TWO FUCKING WOLVES ALIVE RIGHT NOW.

Lar seems like a very, very viable wolf candidate right now for DBP. DBP was the first vote on Funny is the main crux here. Lar doesn't seem to like to stack his vote with his partners, so him voting raeko and DBP voting Manti fits as well.

Outside of that, I don't really know who would be with DBP. As much as I hate to admit it, raeko seems more townie after doing this work so idk.

My best guess at this point is that there is one alive and that Prec was a hit because I cannot really put together that there were 3 wolves alive yesterday. Maybe roundbox/Lar/DBP????? that would be fucking hilarious if roundbox is getting shit on because of what Lar did to his partner.

Something like Prec/x/y is maybe the scariest world that I can think of right now, and if wolves have been busing like total idiots this game, then I was never going to solve this through wagonomics, but I suppose that's always a world on FFR.

DBP/lar/raeko or prec/lar/raeko is... possible I suppose, but it involves some weird Lar/raeko interactions that I don't think are often w/w but again I'm not as confident on Lar as I maybe should be.

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Pending night actions*, something like killing Lar, watching roundbox die as a result, and then killing raeko if the game is still going feels like it wins over 90% of the time to me.

I think the key to killing Lar first lies in the funny/lar kitb where it really looks like wolves were trying to swing it off of lar. The raeko wagon disappearing is perhaps the biggest holdup I have wrt killing lar first, and Haku's claim from yesterday probably means that raeko cannot be allowed to live through this game.

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what the fuck happened this game if they're a wolf:
inD

I mean I guess its possible but it'd be so insane:
Charu/WV
Haku? maybe I shouldn't be so sure but his claim kinda fucks raeko and raeko admitted that haku is telling the truth so. Haku is probably the only world I lose to.

kinda resolving *pending night actions* so I'm not so worried here but could be a wolf:
roundbox

wagonomics make her look better than I thought but she probably can't live through this game at this point:
raeko

probs just a wolf:
lar

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possible worlds in order of most likely to least likely:
dbp/prec/lar
dbp/roundbox/lar (lmao)

dbp/raeko/lar

prec/roundbox/lar (lmao)
dbp/raeko/prec???

idk something with hakulyte on it probably dbp/haku/lar or w/e

something where we're just getting fucked by charu/WV

something where inD won before this all started

we should kill lar tomorrow *pending night actions* imo

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

Insta'ing was not intentional.
You can say being hasty and leaving afterwards was because I have a lot on my plate IRL and really had better things to do.
Anyone saying that there are 3 wolves alive still is wrong. DBP was a hit and this really shouldn't be up for debate.

Wouldn't be surprised if it was mml and raeko. MML came in and voted as soon I started talking about the Raeko/dbp vote split to see if Sunfan was right

You would have to ignore the majority of the game to believe this.
[QUOTE=roundbox;4655074]Is it bad to think that dabackpack might have been truthful in his claim? [/QUOTE
Yes, yes it is. It's extremely bad. Bad and wrong

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I should say that I am... pretty content with killing raeko before killing Lar like it won't break my heart if we do it that way

it might even be safer idk I haven't looked at it yet

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

something like prec/haku/manti or something totally bananas like lar/haku/manti could exist, I guess

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I guess I should believe that prec was a hit a little bit more than I do right now, that wagon just looks really, really pure

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

SunFan all I'm going to say is you're wrong on me and I'm reading Roundbox's reactions the opposite you are, ie I think he had an idea of what the curse does, and I think the whole appeal of "DBP mighta been town, here's a convenient reason to no lynch" is bullshit.

I'll admit maybe that's easier for me to believe because I had already PoE'd him as the final wolf. Maybe that's wrong.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWGXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

I always have a problem assumign d0 lynches are hits
I'm gonna be late to class bbl