TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

[Tasselfoot]

Just for the record.... I definately didn't rule out the "spheroid saw what happened with talisman and copied it to look human" but frankly, although I don't know the guy well, have hardly talked to him ever, I just figured him for a less than intelligent guy. Which made me very confident that he was being honest in his post.

But, even with that, I listed talisman as a higher % chance of human than I did spheroid. I ain't no dummy.

PS - Alain... last game was odd, with the chardish/hans thing out in the open so early. Besides that, there was no guardian discussion from anyone who was working with me until after the guardian died. This game will be no different, assuming I know who the guardian is and am working with him/her.

The goal is to have as few persons as possible know crucial information to GUARENTEE the wolves don't learn it... unlike last game. Again, assuming I know who anyone is.

[Tasselfoot]

And, moreso to those thinking of Spheroid.... every single day 1 we lynch someone for saying something stupid, and every single day 1 we're wrong about it. I tried to get people to lay off nforcer last game, but he was lynched for a stupid comment instead of blah, a wolf. TPS has had it happen to him. So has eb.

Don't kill Spheroid. At least... not yet. Although more circumstancial than evidence vs spheroid, I am liking the evidence against ap and Alain alot more. It is using behavioral traits from past games, small nuances, and unfortunate slip-ups (that although maybe a misunderstanding... there is other evidence as well). Whereas with spheroid, its very clear cut... either what he said is honest, or an intentional stupidity. Give him the benefit of the doubt about being stupid. We've sure had a ton of stupid people in the past in their 1st real game... tnyhwk and afrobean in addition to those listed earlier.

edit: typo

[aperson]

Whorli:

I'm going to place my vote on Alain, because his posts have just been...off.

It's flawless. It's obvious.
What a game where now it is the less skilled players that will be forced to run the show with the exception of Tass.
I will leave you to your musings to find how I came to that conclusion. Everything else has been said.

Not only do I not really understand what he's saying here, but I don't think "everything else" had been said at that point. Half the people hadn't even posted yet! Then he does basically the same thing blah did last game, where "Tass could still be a wolf even though he just did something that totally proves his humanity" referring to his post about being the vigilante.

Yes, and I did that too. Though Alain did make this presumption, what is wrong about arguing hypotheticals to be sure? Tass had just recently posted his assertion that he was vigilante, and I'm sure it was running through Alain's head, just like everyone else's, that there might be a way for him to pull this off as wolf.

Well, now that the dust has settled I think we can all say for pretty sure that Tass is the vigi, but I really don't think it is that condemning on Alain's part just because he is making protective counter-assertions.

After that, he proposes the idea of a group decision on who to vote for, which is really fishy to me. If he wants to convince people who to vote for, that's all well and good--but like talisman said, a group decision has a mob effect, and wolf could easily slip in and choose a human that everyone then votes for. Why make the wolves' job any easier than we have to?

You're right, I don't like this either. Group voting disguises motives because it lumps all the votes together and removes the 1 or 2 vote outliers that become important when you look at voting records in later stages of the game. I figured Alain would be smarter than to recommend something like this.

He's also been less active than usual, without posting a bajillion times a day like his usual strategy...but since I'm quiet myself I would not vote for him based solely on his lack of posting (when other players, myself included, have done less than he has so fat).

And now of course, he's posted great insights on everyone, which makes me ambivalent again. He is sneaky enough to be a wolf and have us not notice (as the devil he was astounding) but I am still highly suspicious of him.

I've never found activity to be a good indicator of which side you're on. What's happening in your life is a major confounding variable in this situation. You're suspicion is warranted, but right now I don't think he's really the strongest lead. Plus, losing a powerhouse like Alain on a misconception is really, really devastating.

Nforcer:

Oho, so blah hasn't posted? Didn't he stay really inactive last game as a wolf? It's rather unusual for him in the first place. Note: This is very likely to change.

I don't know if I'll be on for the meeting. Family dinner and homework. Sorry, guys.

As has already been stated, blah has issues to worry about in life right now. I sincerely hope this vote does change, because you're about an 80% favorite to peg a human doing this.

Alain:

Jursey: A lot to talk about here, since I talk to her often, although not about TWG. Once when we were talking, she suddenly started talking about TWG. I’m assuming that was the instant the thread was updated. Anyways, she asked me “so you’re tired of being a wolf?” and I responded “Ugh, I hate my life. I’ve been picked to be a wolf every game.” (paraphrased) And then she proceeded to call me a wolf this game thinking I had slipped something, when I hadn’t even known that the thread was updated or that pm’s with roles had been sent out. I then went to the thread and got my role, and argued the point with her until I felt any reasonable person would understand. I think this initial questioning she imposed makes her human. It’s a common enough thing for wolves to pull the accusation strategy on humans to gain credibility, but I’m sure Jursey wouldn’t attempt to pull this off, let alone do it so naturally as she did.

I don't know... Jursey has started to appear as a wildcard to me. Originally she was just so stupid that she was unpredictable. But now she's wisened up and I think she is one of the hardest people to place a motive on because you really can't gauge whether she's being stupid, or whether she's being devious.

Spheroid: But I like to give Spheroid more credit than this. It seems to me that Spheroid is a very creative mind. If anyone could come up with a plausible story that could make him seem stupid that he’s human, especially after Tass declared to everyone how effectively talisman had done this, I would say Spheroid could. This doesn’t make him any more of a wolf, but it makes him less certainly human. The first time something like what talisman did, it is good evidence, anything similar after is a potential copy cat. Usually, this isn’t seen until the next game, but it is possible that this is an attempt to reap that benefit while the apparent strategy of it is still fresh. Tass seems to be under the impression that Spheroid is stupid, but I have found him clever in the past, and will not write him off so fast.

I agree. I have seen how Spheroid acts in jTWG and he is clearly not stupid. Granted, he really could be honest here, but it is incredibly short-sighted to not even understand the parameters of the game before you start playing. Here, it's another situation like Jursey, do we give him credit for being stupid, or is he playing us all right now.

This situation is going to have to develop before I make a decision regarding spheroid, I sincerely hope he has something to say in chat tonight.

[talisman]

Personally, I'm starting to get a little suspicious of all the attacks on spheroid. It seems to me much more likely that it was an honest mistake that he failed to observe something in the initial couple posts, especially since he got to the thread late and was probably in a hurry to read through it. Also, I fail to see how his copying of my mistake thing would be smart. It seems to me (if he were a wolf) and were as smart as people suggest he is, that he would see how obvious a move it would be to try to pull something like that off. Imitating my mistake isn't a calculated act of brilliance by any stretch; in fact, it's pretty dumb since it would be rather suspicious.

So my attention goes to those who perpetuate this suspicion. Namely, alain, who first suggested that spheroid could be trying to pull something, and who suggested that we all vote together, a fairly sketchy idea, as I and others have already pointed out. It's not much, but it's what I have to go on right now.

EDIT: forgot to mention that alain also would be a good candidate for getting marked, and that tass' openly voiced suspicions of him pretty much guarantee that he isn't blue.

[Neonatrias]

Got a couple moments before I have to leave again. Here's my thoughts on Spheroid.

I played a jTWG with him, in which we were both wolves. He was incredibly active, but did push the lines a little bit. He's acting differently in this game, which makes me think he's human. In addition, he's not stupid enough to try pulling something over our eyes like that...

But therein lies a problem. He's been quickly getting more and more intelligent in past games. Don't rule him out just yet, because Spheroid is a tricky one.

I think for the moment I'm going to vote mead1. He just seems to simply be agreeing with people. I'm not sure what to think at this point, but I don't have long enough to read the topic fully. I'll do so when I get back later tonight, and more likely than not change my vote.

[Matthew4444]

While I hate to vote for someone based off of inactivity, I'd hate even more to have Tass come to my house and beat me up for getting a phantom.

Flypie

[Tps222]

Flypie isn't really that innactive. She has been just as active as the rest of the games.

Seems as the chat is not going well, pretty much dead. Please, can we get a discussion going, we really need it as of now, things are starting to develop, but many people are starting to go out i.e Tass, Neo, Blah. Day ends at 1, let's not have someone get voted with 3 votes, with the rest having 2.

[mead1]

Ok guys, I must now make my vote before abandoning the computer to the other members of the household. My vote this night goes to spheroid for one main reason. This being the mistake of wolf roles in this game post. I simply cannot understand how someone who should be intelligent (He did make it through jTWG, and Jurs vouches for his intelligence a few posts up) could make such an obvious error. I know it isn't much to go on, but it is day 1, and it's all I've got, so sue me.

And @Jurs: I apologize if I just seem to be following. Not being the first to point something out does not make that point invalid. Not that I condone flagrant Bandwagoning, but pursuing a lead someone else brought up isn't wolfish in my book.

[alainbryden]

What he most likely means by the less skilled players running the show is that because the better players are not being seered, the alliance will be formed by the less skilled players. And of course since Tass is human, he's the only pro that can lead us. Anything else Alain could have said has already been said by everyone else, so he doesn't feel the need to repeat it all. Hope that clears it up.

Yes.

[nforcer06164]

The only thing I have on blah right now is that he was inactive as a wolf last game. What was his excuse? School, the same as this time.

Changing my vote to aperson because of past stated instinct, and my vote on blah was just a lure. I really don't want him lynched anyway. I wanted him to talk, but he apparently isn't even here.

[JurseyRider734]

I don't like how alain rephrased our conversation. He got the "I hate my life part" of it right, but he didn't have the part of him saying "Yep" to being a wolf every game. Kept out intentionally? Perhaps, considering it was probably the most important part of the conversation that consisted of 5 lines or so.

Mead: What?

I'm not going to hold back, after that conversation from the first time I talked to alain about TWG, which wasn't that much, i've just had a bad feeling that I would regret if I didn't vote for him.

Alain

[alainbryden]

NEIGH006: are you seriously still considering this or are you just trying to draw out bandwagonners?
Xtrialan Derrorx: Uh
Xtrialan Derrorx: I'm not drawing out anyone
Xtrialan Derrorx: I'm voting for the person i'm the most suspicious off
Xtrialan Derrorx: of*
Xtrialan Derrorx: That's what you're supposed to do in TWG
Xtrialan Derrorx: Vote off the people you think are wolves.
NEIGH006: another thing you're supposed to do in TWG is listen and understand, not just think in your own worlds
Xtrialan Derrorx: Or maybe you think that i should be random voting people instead
NEIGH006: I made it very clear that you're missunderstood
NEIGH006: I wasn't thinking of this game at all when you said that
NEIGH006: not until you started calling me a wolf
Xtrialan Derrorx: I didn't misunderstand anything.
Xtrialan Derrorx: Okay
Xtrialan Derrorx: Why would I bring up Wolf
Xtrialan Derrorx: I didnt even PLAY in the last game.
NEIGH006: because I was a wolf in last game
NEIGH006: and I was thinking last game
NEIGH006: Think from my perspective, not your own.
Xtrialan Derrorx: There could have been a possibility you forgot i was playing this game.
Xtrialan Derrorx: Which is why I thought it could be a hint
Xtrialan Derrorx: last game i asked you what you were.
Xtrialan Derrorx: Theres a possibility that happened, and i'm not going to rule it out just because you said that it didn't happen.
NEIGH006: yes, you told me that
NEIGH006: and that's a slim and stupid possibility
NEIGH006: first off, because I wasn't even thinking about the game
NEIGH006: and second because I know who's playing in a game when I start it
Xtrialan Derrorx: Okay, thats what you say
NEIGH006: I make a list in aim
Xtrialan Derrorx: If you were a wolf, you're going to try your way around it.
NEIGH006: If I were a human, I'm going to try my way around it
NEIGH006: Huge evidence there eva.
Xtrialan Derrorx: If you were a wolf
Xtrialan Derrorx: It would be a lie
Xtrialan Derrorx: if you were a human
Xtrialan Derrorx: it could be a lie or the truth
NEIGH006: no
Xtrialan Derrorx: Thats why i cant believe what you say
NEIGH006: that's bull
Xtrialan Derrorx: You're devious, and i know you'll lie to make yourself appear human
Xtrialan Derrorx: It's not bull
Xtrialan Derrorx: Thats the game
NEIGH006: it is complete bull
NEIGH006: if I'm human I'm telling the truth
Xtrialan Derrorx: uh
Xtrialan Derrorx: no
NEIGH006: if I'm a wolf, I'm lying
NEIGH006: and there's no in between
NEIGH006: and it's innocent until proven guilty
Xtrialan Derrorx: If you were a human you could be overexaggerating to get yourself out of hot water
NEIGH006: not ignore everything but what you want to hear
Xtrialan Derrorx: I find more guilty until proven innocent.
NEIGH006: well I'm glad you don't run my country.

hopefully someone can understand my point of view. I'd like to close the case on this stupid misunderstanding you're having that you are dragging on.

[JurseyRider734]

Xtrialan Derrorx (9:44:58 PM): I wouldn't want to run your country


Like I said, I have as much of a point as you do.

[flypie743]

Xtrialan Derrorx: I find more guilty until proven innocent.

In this game you are supposed to assume everyone is human (innocent) until you find evidence against them.

Alain is right. If you are a wolf you are lying. If you are human you are telling the truth.

My vote goes to Jurs because of the conversation with Alain.

[Kilgamayan]

Kilga's Guide To Putting Off Writing The End Of Day 1 Story:

aperson: 2 (Kefit, nforcer)
alain: 3 (whorli, talisman, Jurs)
Spheroid: 1 (chardish)
mead: 1 (Neo)
flypie: 1 (Matt)
Spheroid: 1 (mead)
Jurs: 1 (flypie)

Still to vote: blah: LD, Tass, ap, Tps, Spheroid, Guido, alain