TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

[Kefit]

First piece of news - the seer has let me know that Flypie came up as human.

The evidence does seem very against alain with that aim convo. However, this whole thing smells of a setup to me.

I'm almost certain that Chardish was the master wolf. The stunt he pulled off was incredibly risky, and I seriously doubt he would have tried it unless he was master wolf. Without the witness incident he might have gotten away with it, at least for quite some time. I'd be very surprised if it turned out anyone other than Chardish was master (read: alain), but I suppose it isn't impossible.

Hmm...I have the time now, so I guess that I will go and reread the thread.

[JurseyRider734]

We would have to be retarded to ignore the ties with alain and the other wolves.

Very beginning of the game, alain seems allied with aperson(a wolf.)

If that's not sketchy enough...look at this:

Let's pretend that the Tps incident wasn't a plan. Chardish wanted to get rid of Tps so that the suspicion would be off of alain(possibly their master wolf), so chardish goes ahead and does the screenshot thing with Tps. Not only does this make chardish look human, it takes the eye off of alain. Little did chardish know, Tps would come back and post their whole conversation they had where chardish SAYS THAT ALAIN IS A WOLF. Tps deliberately does this because he is fired up over the fact that chardish screwed him over. You would be, too. Tps also states in a later post something along the lines of "Good job alain, we played well". If you don't take this as a flashing sign that ALAIN IS A WOLF, you're pretty ignorant. If alain makes it alive to the end of the game, and the wolves win, we're going to feel pretty DAMN STUPID. Our best bet is to get rid of alain.

[JurseyRider734]

This Is Chardish (9:23:35 PM): Tass doesn't suspect me or alain right now.
Tps7910 (9:23:37 PM): So without him, it will fall apart
Tps7910 (9:23:49 PM): Alain wanted to wolf him too
Tps7910 (9:30:00 PM): So then why would wolfing him be bad?

[Kefit]

Ok, I just reread the entire thread. A few things I would like to point out:

NEIGH006: sup
Phonem Recursive: hey
NEIGH006: tell me
Phonem Recursive: tell what?
NEIGH006: why are people reading into my idea like idiots?
Phonem Recursive: Because it's TWG and half the people that play are idiots.
Phonem Recursive: If you post a good idea that could be misconstrued, you've pretty much #$*#ed yourself
NEIGH006: of having a group meeting to vote
NEIGH006: does that make you one?
NEIGH006: you didn't read into it right
NEIGH006: that's for sure
NEIGH006: "Group voting disguises motives because it lumps all the votes together and removes the 1 or 2 vote outliers that become important when you look at voting records in later stages of the game. I figured Alain would be smarter than to recommend something like this."
NEIGH006: no duh it lets wolves slip in votes
NEIGH006: it let's wolves push for a bandwagon
Phonem Recursive: so then how do you prod the wolves out
NEIGH006: NEIGH006: no duh it lets wolves slip in votes
NEIGH006: it let's wolves push for a bandwagon
Phonem Recursive: Oh so you let them get aggressive then catch them in the process
NEIGH006: I didn't plan on letting them get away with it
NEIGH006: obviously
NEIGH006: you read what they do
NEIGH006: you convict
Phonem Recursive: Right
NEIGH006: how else do you find the wolves?
NEIGH006: but no
NEIGH006: I'm a wolf
NEIGH006: for suggesting it
Phonem Recursive: you need to make the reason obvious then
NEIGH006: you have to look past your noses
NEIGH006: this is something that wolves should miss
Phonem Recursive: yeah
NEIGH006: but humans should get
Phonem Recursive: what are you implying there?
NEIGH006: that everyone but me is a wolf :/
Phonem Recursive: heh
NEIGH006: I guess I didn't hint at my purpose enough
NEIGH006: anyways, there's still time to have one
NEIGH006: I'll try to sort one out
Phonem Recursive: True, we need to get this (#$% under way
NEIGH006: talk to some people
Phonem Recursive: yeah but what if we make the idea too clear to a wolf?
NEIGH006: what if you're a wolf?
Phonem Recursive: We gotta make sure they fall for the trap or it's worthless
NEIGH006: yeah well
Phonem Recursive: Then you go back to the shitty voting order we have right now and you, me, or spheroid are probably under the chopping block
NEIGH006: I'll take my chances letting you and guido in on it
Phonem Recursive: k
Phonem Recursive: I'll tell you now though, I'm not a wolf
NEIGH006: I told guido my intention too
Phonem Recursive: I'm nothing special, but I'm definitely not a wolf
Phonem Recursive: ahh good
NEIGH006: yeah well, I didn't figure
NEIGH006: plus you're active enough you might get this and try to get it going
Phonem Recursive: I figured I'd look suspicious since I'm dead in the middle of the MW pool
NEIGH006: yeah well, every power player now looks suspicious
NEIGH006: except tass
NEIGH006: by some miracle
Phonem Recursive: yeah
NEIGH006: what else is new
Phonem Recursive: of course

What is most notable in this convo is when aperson proclaims that he is not a wolf. Why would he do this in any convo between him and another wolf? They already know of eachother's wolfishness, no need to bring it up. So in order for alain and aperson to be connected as wolves, this convo would need to be fabricated in some way. There are two ways that this can happen:

1) alain creates the entire convo from scratch himself. Although I wouldn't put this past him, the aperson in that convo clearly comes off to me as aperson himself, as opposed to alain trying to imitate him. Thus, I do not think that alain could have made up this entire convo by himself.

2) alain and aperson work together to fabricate this convo. Only one real problem with that - votes for alain didn't start pouring in until after aperson died. In other words, the need to fake a convo such as this with aperson's help didn't arise until after aperson was completely out of the game, at which point he would be forbidden from conspiring on something like this.

So if neither of those happened, then how else can alain be a wolf? Combine this with my almost certainty that Chardish was the master, along the thought that Chardish would probably not try to pull a stunt like he did if he still had another strong wolf ally, and I become very reluctent to vote for alain.

So who to vote for then? Well, the following people voted for Chardish yesterday: Tassy, Neon, Jurs, Talisman, Whorli, flypie, and mead. Since their were so few wolves left in the game, I strongly doubt that another wolf voted for Chardish, since voting for jurs at that point would have been a perfectly valid vote. Furthermore, votes for Chardish were piling up fast, so placing another for him just propelled him closer to instalynch, which, with only two wolves left, would be incredibly dangerous.

So that means that the following people didnt vote for Chardish: Chardish, me, alain, blah, matt, and nforcer. I've already stated why I am not going to vote for alain, and blah has been such an outside factor this game that I really doubt he is a wolf (that, and the same logic above, that Chardish would not pull his stunt if he had a strong ally remainging). That leaves matt and nforcer. After rereading the thread, I noticed that while matt has made posts, they have all been practically substanceless - he generally just regurgitates what others have said. Wolves generally have nothing to contribute unless they make it up, so perhaps this is all that he can manage to muster.

Oh, and as far as Tps's accusations go, those could have easily been faked. I don't know how he was acting in the chat or on aim after Chardish screwed him over, but in this thread he really doesn't seem all that angry to me. I get the feeling that he was in on the whole plan.

[JurseyRider734]

You bring up good points, Kefit, but there is a possibility that it wasn't a plan(which is probably wasn't) and Tps was telling the truth.

[whorlichan]

Okay...Kefit does bring up a good point. And with Matt in mind, I looked over his voting history and reasons given.

He's posted exactly 6 times. On page 3, he reiterates the "plan of seering," which both Chardish and Tass had already outlined more clearly and with better ideas.

On page 5, he posts to explain to me what alain meant by the game being run by the lesser players--which, btw, has shown itself to NOT be true. The lesser players (in this case I mean him, tps, talisman, neon, etc) have not been very active at all. How are they running the show? Still no actual ideas or evidence from him.

Page 6, a retarded inactivity vote for flypie, who still has more posts than he does. His reasoning is that he's afraid of Tass. Oh puh-lease.

On Page 13 he pops back up out of the ether, posting twice in a 2-minute span of time. First he votes for Tps along with everyone else, and then he immediately recants it. Why didn't he just post that he agreed with everyone's thinking, but didn't want to have an immediate instalynch? Perhaps to have history that he did indeed vote for a confirmed wolf?

And then on Page 14, he posts one word: his vote for Tps.

Since then we've heard nothing from him. Being inactive with good RL reasoning behind it is one thing, completely flying under the radar is another.

Matthew444

[JurseyRider734]

I really haven't seen Matthew on, though. I think he's just really being stupid, nothing really jumps out at me as much to say that he's acting as a wolf. Maybe he'll get online and once we start to conversate with him we'll be able to see what's really going on with him.

[blahblah18]

haha I just have to say that jurs said conversate, and I cracked up...
I still feel alain is the best choice, and will thus now put it in alain form

[talisman]

I'm almost certain that Chardish was the master wolf. The stunt he pulled off was incredibly risky, and I seriously doubt he would have tried it unless he was master wolf.

On the other hand, it would make more sense for a regular wolf to pull this stunt than a master, because then that regular wolf no longer has to worry about being seered. Just because it's risky doesn't mean that only a master would try it. If it had worked, chardish would be in the clear and not have to worry about being seered as well as alain, the master.

2) alain and aperson work together to fabricate this convo. Only one real problem with that - votes for alain didn't start pouring in until after aperson died.

wrong, alain was leading in votes on day one with three early on, and aperson had a pair as well. With two players as strong as those two, can't you see them saying to each other "we might get killed today, let's pretend for a second we aren't wolf partners so that later if we get accused of being connected we can produce a convo that shows us to be unconnected." ?

Since their were so few wolves left in the game, I strongly doubt that another wolf voted for Chardish, since voting for jurs at that point would have been a perfectly valid vote.

This is kind of illogical. A wolf knows that chardish is a wolf, and that jurs is a human, and furthermore that the witness incident is out in public and that following chardish's death, it will become clear that jurs is a human to everyone and any vote placed on her will look really frickin suspicious.

Also kefit, announcing your role at alain's request was kind of pointless and stupid... there was no need to break anonymity... jurs was a confirmed human who could take tass' spot. Therefore, I really hope the guardian is still around to protect you tonight on the off chance that the last wolf isn't lynched today.

[JurseyRider734]

Alain - 4
Matt - 2

6 to instalynch

[alainbryden]

Talisman, a wolf has no reason to kill kefit because his role is now useless. The psychic is a useless role when there is only one wolf left. End of story.


All of you. Your fundamental assumption leading you to think I'm a wolf is that Chardish saved me.
Chardish did not save me
See those 20 some posts I made that day? The 2 hours I spent talking with Tass? With Guido? Those are what saved me. I eased almost everyone's suspicions and answered all questions and there was still an entire day left where several people were planning to take votes off me, and other's allready had. All suspicion was, infact, pretty much dying until my name was brought up in the TPS/Chardish thing. When Chardish pulled his stunt I was no longer in danger of being lynched even though I still had the majority of votes on me.

Therefore your fundamental assumption, which you said no one can argue against, is wrong. I have said it 10 times before but I have made it as simple and as clear as pissible now.


Finally, did it just occured to me, as it should have to you, that perhaps TPS needed to leave the game, and so he organised such a thing to either a) Confirm Chardish's humanity or b) set me up if this should fail. Remember the time I attempted to wolf myself for this same reason? It seems a risk that he would even mention Chardish in his 'retaliation' but by the way Chardish played off the circumstance, it would seem that was the intention.

[talisman]

Talisman, a wolf has no reason to kill kefit because his role is now useless. The psychic is a useless role when there is only one wolf left. End of story.

You're right, my mistake.

edited because I fail at quote tags

[alainbryden]

Xtrialan Derrorx (7:07:37 PM): This Is Chardish (9:23:35 PM): Tass doesn't suspect me or alain right now.
Tps7910 (9:23:37 PM): So without him, it will fall apart
Tps7910 (9:23:49 PM): Alain wanted to wolf him too
Tps7910 (9:30:00 PM): So then why would wolfing him be bad?
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:07:52 PM): Tass just got wolfed last night. It says right there you wanted to wolf him, if indeed that was the conversation.
NEIGH006 (7:07:57 PM): What if the name had said "Mead"
NEIGH006 (7:08:01 PM): and got changed to "Alain"
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:08:02 PM): You were tied with aperson day one, read what Talisman said.
NEIGH006 (7:08:03 PM): seriously
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:08:07 PM): I know, i've thought of that over and over
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:08:13 PM): It wasn't a plan though, Tps was fucked over
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:08:29 PM): He wanted the game to end because he was pissed off, why would he not mention the name of the last wolf.
NEIGH006 (7:08:38 PM): wait that makes no sence
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:08:51 PM): Yes it does.
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:09:11 PM): why do you think aperson made that crying/emo banner for Tps
NEIGH006 (7:09:15 PM): you're saying "If they really are talking about Alain, then it says Alain wanted to wolf Tass. Tass just got wolfed. So they must have been really talking about Alain"
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:09:21 PM): because he cried about it, and revealed (all?) of the wolves involved.
NEIGH006 (7:09:22 PM): it could have just as easily been any other player
NEIGH006 (7:09:29 PM): you've used circular logic
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:09:37 PM): Thats true, i know. but you were also mentioned before in it
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:09:43 PM): how that you can't be lynched, and they needed to save you.
NEIGH006 (7:10:13 PM): I mentioned in what?
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:10:24 PM): in the Tps/Chardish conversation
NEIGH006 (7:10:57 PM): Yeah, but that entire thing was made up to suit my current condition
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:10:59 PM): page 14
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:11:13 PM): Yeah you could say that, but how could we know.
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:11:19 PM): Tps did that out of anger
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:11:24 PM): All of it leads up to it being true.
NEIGH006 (7:11:44 PM): unless
NEIGH006 (7:11:47 PM): like I said in my post
NEIGH006 (7:11:50 PM): he went along
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:11:55 PM): You and aperson we for-eachother in the beginning, talisman's reasoning for your conversation together is pretty good.
NEIGH006 (7:11:55 PM): because he needed to leave the game
NEIGH006 (7:12:01 PM): no we weren't
NEIGH006 (7:12:03 PM): I trusted him
NEIGH006 (7:12:05 PM): barely
NEIGH006 (7:12:09 PM): and I have no clue about him
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:12:11 PM): On the beginning of day 1, okay.
NEIGH006 (7:12:12 PM): that is all
Xtrialan Derrorx (7:12:16 PM): You're not one to trust people so easily.
NEIGH006 (7:12:26 PM): On the contrary
NEIGH006 (7:12:40 PM): I always trust people unless I am faced with glaring contradictions to this trust
NEIGH006 (7:12:53 PM): I am always first to show all the ways in which a person can be innocent

[talisman]

NEIGH006 (7:07:57 PM): What if the name had said "Mead"

actually, tass said as soon as he wasn't suspicious of you that he was suspicious of both mead and flypie. But anyway, it is true that tass didn't suspect you or chardish then... therefore that chat line makes sense.

[Neonatrias]

Alright...Alain's been pressing wrong buttons with me since he managed his way out of being lynched.