TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

[talisman]

Ok, these are the strongest players in the game, if we define strongest to mean most likely to be seered in a normal TWG: alain, aperson, blah, chardish, guido, kefit. Tass is omitted because he is human.

My thoughts are this: if a majority (2 or 3) of the original wolves are comprised of these players, then they won't mark another one and if a minority (0 or 1) of the original wolves are among these strongest players then one of them will probably be marked. This means that a maximum of three and a minimum of one wolf is in that group. If there is only one, then that player is likely to be the master wolf.

Obviously this isn't something that is guaranteed to be accurate (for instance in the case of 0 or 1 strong original wolves that they also thought of this reasoning and therefore didn't mark a strong player), but I think it has some statistical merit. Thoughts?

Also, I strongly agree about having a group chat session, but I disagree about unanimously deciding who to lynch. In my opinion, that makes it far too easy for wolves to slip in a vote and remain indistinguishable from the humans. Also, there are dangers of groupthink, where people who don't really want to vote someone start going along with it anyway just because they think that if they vote against the group they will look suspicious.

[Tasselfoot]

I agree with you Alain... at this point, I know nothing more than anyone else. So, don't bandwagon onto my vote just because I say something... at least, not yet.

But... who are you thinking of voting Alain? I'm basing everything I've said off of who is most likely to be a wolf (you or ap, IMO)... OR ... because we have so little information... who would be the LEAST missed, and if they happen to be a wolf... even better. That would be Spheroid. I don't favor this line of thinking, that TPS and nForcer have brought up in previous games and been killed because of.... but, do you have a BETTER suggestion? The fact that we have no night 1 kill is severely limiting the information flow here on the forums, making it impossible to get a read on people's behavior.

Also, the reason I've brought up ap and Alain is their posts and AIM behavior. It isn't JUST because of being likely wolf picks. The combination of the two is my reasoning.

[Kefit]

Hi. Work has been stealing my soul for the past few days, but I have some time to relax now. Here are two thoughts of mine while reading this thread:

- Debating endlessly over who is likely to be the fourth wolf will get us no where. This is just like in past games where we argue about who would have chosen to wolf a particular player night one. Sure, it's nice information to keep around, but without something more solid it accomplishes nothing.

- aperson is really really bugging me. In past games he has put forth the same thought that I just did towards the pointlessness of trying to ascertain a useful amount of information on a night one wolf kill. Yet this game he supports the idea of continuing to try and get information from the various possibilities for the marking, which is something we have even less info on than when we have a night one wolf kill.

Nothing beyond discussing the marking has really happened this game, aside from Tass's declaration of his role. I'd like to change that, and to get disussion started in a new direction. I don't think that anyone has placed a vote yet, so I am going to start - aperson. For what I pointed out above, and for the concerns he has raised against Tass's role as vigilante, which remind me quite a bit of how blah kept insisting that Tass might still be a wolf even after being successfully guarded in the last TWG.

[aperson]

Hi. Work has been stealing my soul for the past few days, but I have some time to relax now. Here are two thoughts of mine while reading this thread:

- Debating endlessly over who is likely to be the fourth wolf will get us no where. This is just like in past games where we argue about who would have chosen to wolf a particular player night one. Sure, it's nice information to keep around, but without something more solid it accomplishes nothing.

- aperson is really really bugging me. In past games he has put forth the same thought that I just did towards the pointlessness of trying to ascertain a useful amount of information on a night one wolf kill. Yet this game he supports the idea of continuing to try and get information from the various possibilities for the marking, which is something we have even less info on than when we have a night one wolf kill.

Nothing beyond discussing the marking has really happened this game, aside from Tass's declaration of his role. I'd like to change that, and to get disussion started in a new direction. I don't think that anyone has placed a vote yet, so I am going to start - aperson. For what I pointed out above, and for the concerns he has raised against Tass's role as vigilante, which remind me quite a bit of how blah kept insisting that Tass might still be a wolf even after being successfully guarded in the last TWG.

No, I'm not pushing for informative decisions on night one, I'm pushing for a generalized strategy for following this game because of the unique situation at the beginning. Way to strawman my argument!

I'm also being the dissenting voice against Tass as a check, if we all get dicked over I'd like to at least say I raised a flag. Besides, right now, I believe as much as anyone else that Tass is vigilante. You slung my name out there to get discussion started, right? I spoke against Tass to get discussion started as well. You might as well be voting for yourself with that logic.

[Spheroid]

Can't something be gotten from no kill happening? Most likely, the wolves did on purpose, and with any move the wolf team does, there's people who would think of it, and people who wouldn't. Since I've only played in a game with one of the people in this one, I can only really make generalizations on what kind of person would be more likely.

The wolves might be trying to attract as little suspcion as possible, including getting others falsely accused. In this case, the wolves are probably conservative, or have a plan that doesn't require/can't have any distractions.

Even with a vigilate in the game, the wolves might have thought that since they have a ratio advantage (compared to normal games), and a master wolf, there's no need to kill anyone, and they would be better off raising no suspicions, making a human lynching easier. The wolves would probably be acting pretty much normal as of now if the case. They would also more likely be consevative than not.

Also, has anyone ever forfitted the night 1 kill on pupose in past games? If so, people's reactions and comments from then might help.

Anyway, I guess not too much can be gotten from the absence of a kill, but I thought I'd bring it up to see if it'd help.

[Tasselfoot]

Too god damn f*cking funny....

I swear... Talisman's comments being dumb was one thing (and makes him look 99% human)... but jesus christ... You are one retarded schmuck.

The wolves didn't forfeit their night 1 kill. Kilga didn't give them one. He said that them getting to pick their 4th wolf was powerful enough to not have a night 1 kill. Personally, I disagree... but, as I'm always a strong night 1 kill, I won't complain. Plus, 2 guardian targets on night 2 is very nice for me as well.

Anywho... for the same reason as Talisman... I gotta say you're almost certainly human.

[alainbryden]

Well Tass beat me to that one.

Here's something to at least discuss activity. I'm surprised at how few posts I've made, because I feel active. I check the thread alot. wtf at blah?

[Tasselfoot]

I'm the only active one.... weak. Blah finishes his CS project today. I'd imagine he'll be active again after it.

I'll be heading back to NYC in about 2 hours... figure me to make a big post around midnight along with my vote.

Again, I don't want to see a single person have a phantom. All of you better vote.

[alainbryden]

I will fill in the holes later tonight hopefully.

aperson: A lot of people have expressed suspicion about aperson. I certainly don’t see where that’s coming from, but it could be because I’ve only played one other game with aperson and I was a wolf (devil?) in that game. I wasn’t very concerned with character analysis.

blahblah: He hasn’t posted. What the hell can I say? I’m disappointed in him, but nothing can be drawn from this. Either he’s occupied, or he’s in complete hiding, which wolves by now is an awful strategy, and catches up with you fast, so hopefully we can expect that a wolf would be more involved in the game.

Chardish:

flypie:

Guido:

Jursey: A lot to talk about here, since I talk to her often, although not about TWG. Once when we were talking, she suddenly started talking about TWG. I’m assuming that was the instant the thread was updated. Anyways, she asked me “so you’re tired of being a wolf?” and I responded “Ugh, I hate my life. I’ve been picked to be a wolf every game.” (paraphrased) And then she proceeded to call me a wolf this game thinking I had slipped something, when I hadn’t even known that the thread was updated or that pm’s with roles had been sent out. I then went to the thread and got my role, and argued the point with her until I felt any reasonable person would understand. I think this initial questioning she imposed makes her human. It’s a common enough thing for wolves to pull the accusation strategy on humans to gain credibility, but I’m sure Jursey wouldn’t attempt to pull this off, let alone do it so naturally as she did.

Kefit:

lightdarkness:

Matt4444:

mead1:

Neonatrias:

nforcer06164:

talisman: Usually, in a game, some players play so stupid that they come off as wolves and get lynched from general suspicion with no specific evidence. Well talisman has managed to do the exact obvious, saying something so stupid, that a wolf could not be so ignorant.

Spheroid: But I like to give Spheroid more credit than this. It seems to me that Spheroid is a very creative mind. If anyone could come up with a plausible story that could make him seem stupid that he’s human, especially after Tass declared to everyone how effectively talisman had done this, I would say Spheroid could. This doesn’t make him any more of a wolf, but it makes him less certainly human. The first time something like what talisman did, it is good evidence, anything similar after is a potential copy cat. Usually, this isn’t seen until the next game, but it is possible that this is an attempt to reap that benefit while the apparent strategy of it is still fresh. Tass seems to be under the impression that Spheroid is stupid, but I have found him clever in the past, and will not write him off so fast.

Tasselfoot: I know that Tass wants to see me post more about him than the obvious “he’s proven himself human.” He has, but more than that, I think he has proven himself useful in putting together an alliance. What he doesn’t have, though, is any clear strategy on how he plains to get the hardcore evidence he prides himself on. I’m sure all you plan to do is instruct the Guardian to guard someone each night, and the Seer who to see, and vigilante when you happen upon a wolf. Especially with the guardian, a large mistake in past games has that there has been too much discussion about whom the guardian is guarding. There should be no discussion. After this post, no one should discuss who the guardian guarded, or will guard. This information serves only wolves, and not the general human, and thus should only be discussed within the alliance. I know this is obvious, but sure enough, each time I play, some indication of who is being guarded gets out. That’s the only advice I offer you, everything else about the alliance is clear enough.

Tps222:

whorlichan: Quick to comment on. Made one post, agreeing with the theory Chardish first posted and Tass then supported. Also put support on the theory that a power player is the master wolf, pretty obvious, and I get the impression Orli feels that several of the wolves are power players. This is pretty generically the idea going around at the moment. Only a wolf would try to deny that one or more of the wolves is a power player, that’s pretty obvious. Lucky for Tass, it’s clear that he isn’t one of them. Let’s hope he doesn’t take advantage of his “Every man for his tass” strategy to have every power player but himself killed to be sure.

And that my friends empties my mind on players that I had time to cover before having to leave. I hope the meeting goes well tonight, and I’ll be home before the night to make my input, before 11:00 EST

[nforcer06164]

Oho, so blah hasn't posted? Didn't he stay really inactive last game as a wolf? It's rather unusual for him in the first place. Note: This is very likely to change.

I don't know if I'll be on for the meeting. Family dinner and homework. Sorry, guys.

[lightdarkness]

Jursey: A lot to talk about here, since I talk to her often, although not about TWG. Once when we were talking, she suddenly started talking about TWG. I’m assuming that was the instant the thread was updated. Anyways, she asked me “so you’re tired of being a wolf?” and I responded “Ugh, I hate my life. I’ve been picked to be a wolf every game.” (paraphrased) And then she proceeded to call me a wolf this game thinking I had slipped something, when I hadn’t even known that the thread was updated or that pm’s with roles had been sent out. I then went to the thread and got my role, and argued the point with her until I felt any reasonable person would understand. I think this initial questioning she imposed makes her human. It’s a common enough thing for wolves to pull the accusation strategy on humans to gain credibility, but I’m sure Jursey wouldn’t attempt to pull this off, let alone do it so naturally as she did.

Xtrialan Derrorx (4:07:04 PM): wolf
NEIGH006 (4:07:19 PM): ugh
NEIGH006 (4:07:32 PM): hate my life
Xtrialan Derrorx (4:07:37 PM): lol
Xtrialan Derrorx (4:07:43 PM): because you always get picked to be a wolf?
NEIGH006 (4:08:11 PM): yep

Just so you all know

Also...

Jursey: I wanted to let a few people know that happened before the wolfing tonight, because if I get wolfed...then that could be a reason.


Does this rule her out as one of the original 3?

[lightdarkness]

nforcer, it was stated that he was finishing up a final project for college. I would be damned if he did post, College > TWG

[whorlichan]

Gee...all I have to do to prove my humanity is to post something really retarded and obvious? Well, wait--maybe that's the WOLF STRATEGY!! </sarcasm>

Truth be told, I'm a little upset that neither Talisman nor Spheroid actually read the thread where we voted on host and scenario, or actually TALKED to Kilga about this, before posting such inanities. I thought this was supposed to be the "elite" TWG, where people actually think and reason stuff out logically before going off for a vote. (That said, I'm not sure why I'm allowed in, as I don't have any grasp of logic whatsoever )

I'm going to place my vote on Alain, because his posts have just been...off.

It's flawless. It's obvious.
What a game where now it is the less skilled players that will be forced to run the show with the exception of Tass.
I will leave you to your musings to find how I came to that conclusion. Everything else has been said.

Not only do I not really understand what he's saying here, but I don't think "everything else" had been said at that point. Half the people hadn't even posted yet! Then he does basically the same thing blah did last game, where "Tass could still be a wolf even though he just did something that totally proves his humanity" referring to his post about being the vigilante.

After that, he proposes the idea of a group decision on who to vote for, which is really fishy to me. If he wants to convince people who to vote for, that's all well and good--but like talisman said, a group decision has a mob effect, and wolf could easily slip in and choose a human that everyone then votes for. Why make the wolves' job any easier than we have to?

He's also been less active than usual, without posting a bajillion times a day like his usual strategy...but since I'm quiet myself I would not vote for him based solely on his lack of posting (when other players, myself included, have done less than he has so fat).

And now of course, he's posted great insights on everyone, which makes me ambivalent again. He is sneaky enough to be a wolf and have us not notice (as the devil he was astounding) but I am still highly suspicious of him.

[User6773]

Not quite certain on a vote yet, but I've got to say that I really don't think aperson is a wolf. Tass got proven human and pretty much everyone accepts it. We all know aperson's smart, and if he were a wolf I don't think he would have anything to gain by openly being suspicious of Tass, especially when his logic is pretty stone-cold solid. Tass is a crafty player, and it's natural to be suspicious of him in any game - but I don't think a wolf would benefit from trying to call him out in this one. It'd be like running into a KKK rally and saying "But really guys, what's wrong with black people?"

My biggest suspicions are falling on Spheroid at this point. Talisman says something so stupid, expressing such ignorance about the role of the wolves, that it pretty much clears his humanity. Then Spheroid does the exact same thing and gets pretty much the same results. This could be genuine honest ignorance, or it could be that he picked up on what Talisman did and figured it could work the same for him.

Not strong suspicions, but I'm still suspicious. And no one else really has anything to go on, so Spheroid.

[Matthew4444]

What he most likely means by the less skilled players running the show is that because the better players are not being seered, the alliance will be formed by the less skilled players. And of course since Tass is human, he's the only pro that can lead us. Anything else Alain could have said has already been said by everyone else, so he doesn't feel the need to repeat it all. Hope that clears it up.