TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

[lightdarkness]

Here is something that just pop'd into my head.

What if a power player got MW right off the bat? They would have no need to bring in a power player, and just mark a low profile player to be a wolf...

[User6773]

Here is something that just pop'd into my head.

What if a power player got MW right off the bat? They would have no need to bring in a power player, and just mark a low profile player to be a wolf...

The only thing I can think of is the age old "stupid, or wolf?" question. It really hurts the wolves to have a stupid person on the wolf side (not that i'm accusing anyone in this game of being stupid.) In almost every TWG someone gets lynched because they were being stupid even though they weren't a wolf (with the exception of blah last game, who was being stupid even though he was a wolf.)

(Aside: also, for this reason, I'd guess that blah isn't the mark. Pretty much everyone knows that he failed miserably at being a wolf last time, and I don't think that they'd let him have another shot at it.)

But my point is, the more people on the human side who are likely to be stupid and act wolfish, the more that helps the wolves. I don't think the wolves have any good reason to recruit a lesser-known player, and they'd have to be brain dead to give him master. If I were a wolf, I'd rather have someone like Tass, Guido, Alain, myself, etc. on the team than some newbie.

Therefore, I'm confident that at least one experienced player is a wolf.

[Neonatrias]

That's still going to put us in the same situation in the end. We'd still end up with three regular wolves and a powerful MW...

However, there's a worse scenario. Say a power player was chosen MW already...And then they brought in another power player as the last wolf, and made them MW instead? Then we'd have a power player MW, a power player normal wolf, and two others...

In either case, we'd have a good bit of trouble on our hands.

[Tasselfoot]

LD and Neon... did you not read Chardish's initial post?

Hence the comment about being stupid. He (as I would have had I been home to post it before he did) clearly stated the 2 scenarios... #1, recruit a power player and make them MW. But, #2... MW is already a power player. And, in that case, the obvious choice is to bring in the most powerful person possible with little to no chance to be a wolf. Although Chardish said something slightly different. He said that in case #2, the wolves would recruit another power player. I disagree with that completely, as there is too strong a chance of them being seered... even with all of us agreeing that the seer should not seer the power players. Night 1 alone could bring down that powerful recruit, etc etc. That is why I think that my #2 scenario is a better strategy. Whether that is what happened or not, who knows.

[User6773]

If a wolf is doing a good enough job of acting human, he's going to be pretty low on the seer priority list. However, if a more mid-level player (I'd put Kefit, LD, aperson, whorli in this list) is acting kind of iffy, or half-and-half, they might be more likely to draw the seer's attention.

Any dead wolf is not good for the wolves, even if it's a newbie - that's one more day they have to stay alive. Thus I don't think the wolves would want to take a chance by recruiting anybody but a power player.

[flypie743]

Just so you guys know I am leaving for a party in a few minutes and then to a dance then spending the night at a friend's house. I will be back on Saturday afternoon.

[nforcer06164]

I have to say, I completely agreed and was going to post Chardish's theory as well, Tass.

The possibility of Tass being marked, likely without a doubt, ran across my mind. But, as I thought about and what was already mentioned, I will reiterate: the wolves may have expected us to think just that, and lynch Tass. That way, a powerful human ally is killed off and the wolves are safe. I am definitely learning in the latter direction on this subject, because I'm sure the wolves thought this out even more than I did when selecting a mark.

What really pisses me off right off the bat in this game is that we didn't get to see a Night 1 kill, or even an attempt at one. This will make our lynching for Day 1 the most random and ineffective yet.

[whorlichan]

Well, it seems like everyone (including me) agrees with Chardish and Tass (since they basically said the same thing).

I am still leaning slightly more towards the power players as the ones to check out, since with so many of them in the game, it's highly likely that at least one of them is A wolf, if not the MASTER wolf.

[Kilgamayan]

Notice/Reminder

The final Community Megapack selection process takes place in #a0.com tomorrow at 2 PM EST. I don't know how long it will run, but it will require my full attention, so I'll be unable to pay any reasonable amount of attention to this while it's going on.

Hopefully it won't take more than a couple hours.

[Tasselfoot]

After some thought, I have decided to post this....


I am the Vigilante.


I'd like to work with the seer, psychic, guardian to have a solid core of 4, regardless of the people who are brought in as "seered". Now, clearly, the first thought is that either I am in fact the Vigilante... or I am a wolf. The thing I realized, and the reason that I am posting this... is that IF I were a wolf, the real vigilante would kill me, with no possible repercussions and would be a 100% confirmed human for the other blues to flock to. That makes absolutely 0 sense for a wolf to do.... therefore, I have to be the vigilante.

I leave it to all of you to decide if there is any loophole in my logic, because I can't think of it. Also, hopefully this will help protect me from wolfings, as the guardian has a damn good reason (better than normal) to keep me alive.

Come to me my blue friends.

[Tasselfoot]

Also, in case someone is still skeptical.....

lightdarkness42: damn
lightdarkness42: that is some fine logic


Ares113: So.
Ares113: If you don't vigilante today, what's going to keep the wolves from wolfing you?
TasselFoot: guardian.
TasselFoot: or threat of guardian
TasselFoot: guardian gets TWO people to guard tonight
Ares113: Yes, of course.
TasselFoot: no reason i won't be one of them.


Phonem Recursive: very interesting
Phonem Recursive: That's amazing logic
TasselFoot: thank you.
Phonem Recursive: You're right, if you are not the vigilante you will be killed


I have quotes from other people, but I don't want to reveal to anyone who may or may not be a blue. You get the idea, multiple good players agree with my logic and have been unable to see a flaw in it.

Edit is me adding in the aperson quote. Didn't want to triple post.

[talisman]

Ok then, I join the chorus about chardish's post being right on, etc etc, and tass' revealment of his role is pretty damn slick, and really helps the seer early on since automatically three other people are eliminated as potential wolves, which will be excellent for alliance building/wolf finding.

Really nothing else to add at this point, except that I disagree with this reasoning:

(Aside: also, for this reason, I'd guess that blah isn't the mark. Pretty much everyone knows that he failed miserably at being a wolf last time, and I don't think that they'd let him have another shot at it.)

I mean, the reason that blah failed at being a wolf was because A) tass was guarded and therefore made an early alliance B) tass was suspicious of him and C) if blah hadn't been seered night one, he sure as hell would be night two. I think he kind of realized he was in a hopeless position and gave up, not that he lacks the skill to be a wolf. He's still a possible mark in my mind.

[Tasselfoot]

Talisman... you definately aren't wrong. also, D) He's been working night and day on a project for a class of his... still working on it acutally. Its been distracting him.

BUT... the fact remains... he's been a wolf 1 time in 12 games, and he botched it pretty badly. Whether it was his fault or not, we won't discuss. All that matters is that he did, and everyone knows it. It looks bad all around, thereby making him a less likely choice.

I said something similar in chat though... something like "Blah is my dark horse choice for MW"... we'll see.

[lightdarkness]

Here was my logic about Tass.

Someone mentioned "Well.. what if the real vigilante isn't on, and Tass used that to get a few special roles before being killed"

Here is my response: It's Tass for christ sake, would he honestly go on a suicide mission on day 1? He loves pips more than whorli, of course he wouldnt'

[alainbryden]

It's flawless. It's obvious.

What a game where now it is the less skilled players that will be forced to run the show with the exception of Tass.
I will leave you to your musings to find how I came to that conclusion. Everything else has been said.