TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

[talisman]

I just remembered something in the shower, and I'm going to post it real quick because it potentially adds a little more to talk about.

We all are talking about the wolves' likely marks while forgetting that the wolves had to pick FIVE marks, as per Kilga's rules in order to insure that a normal human was chosen. Some interesting scenarios arise from this:

A) all the original wolves are newer, less experience players: Clearly, they would choose five of the strongeset players as their potentials and transfer master wolf status to the one that made it through.

B) all the original wolves are experienced, strong players: Adding another strong player would probably be a bad call, since then four likely seerables are all wolves. Average players would most likely be on the list of five.

C) (most likely) the original wolves are a mix of experienced, average, or inexperienced players: It seems to me that in this situation that the number of strong original wolves would be the determining factor. If there is only one, then adding another would be beneficial. If there are two, then adding another might hurt because of the seer.

D) all the original wolves are just average players: same as A, basically.

Some food for thought. Also most of my reasoning is based on the seer choosing the stronger players, which may not happen here, based on the general opinions from the last couple pages about what kind of player is likely to be chosen as a master wolf.

[lightdarkness]

The wolves didn't pick 5, they got their one pick, then special roles were given out.

[Tasselfoot]

Alain:
I could run a TWG with monkeys.... hmm.... new game idea, anyone?


Talisman/LD:
Originally Kilga was going to have the wolves pick 5 potential people to be their 4th wolf, incase the person they picked was blue. Then I posted that the wolves should pick their 4th BEFORE choosing blues, so they could get the 1 that they wanted... he agreed, and that is how the game went.

So, talisman was just under the original rules, as opposed to the more logical way in which Kilga decided to run it, which was how I suggested it be done.


Interestingly enough... the wolves would clearly know that this is NOT how it actually went down, so... although talisman could be a wolf who is trying to fool us, it would appear to be pretty clear that he is human.

[mead1]

I am very happy the human alliance can nowbe formed. It is much to our advantage. Though since I am green, this means I will again be on the outside while knowing absolutely nothing. Bleh.

[nforcer06164]

One other thing I thought of, and this kind of builds on some of the possibilities talisman brought up:

I'm sure that we have at least one experienced player in the mix. Of course, they're going to think out possibilities advantageous to the wolf win, as we humans are too. But, if they thought out possibilities as much as we did, they would see ahead that we'd be more trusting of average players.

Think about it. Of course the wolves want to have powerful players on their side, but this is a game where they have a choice: they can actually pick another player as a wolf and make him the master. Of course, in this situation, the instinct is to go for the most powerful player available and make him a master, so in seering him, he can get into a human alliance. Of course, we're not dumb enough for that, but the wolves know that, too. So, my idea is that they most likely went for an average player that we believe we can trust, and make them the master wolf so they can slip into an alliance and feed back info to their wolf buddies. It doesn't matter how skilled that average player is with keeping their identity secret. The experienced player could be guiding them the whole way. I think with the situations that can form in this game, that is the most probable.

So, whoever the seer is, just remember... don't trust anyone, not even the most inexperienced player, and never reveal your identity to them. If you think you can really trust someone after a seering, work through Tass. NEVER go direct.

[talisman]

Oops. I just read page one of the vote for host thread, not thinking the rules would change on page two. My bad, guys.

I guess my scenarios still have some merit though, although now you just have to think of the different cases of original wolves as only picking one. And we do know now (for sure) that tass wasn't marked.

[Tasselfoot]

I still haven't spoken to a few people.... I sent PMs to all of you, so please check your PMs and/or get on AIM.

[JurseyRider734]

Okay, I think we have scenarios. Sum up of basically what everyone said:

They most likely marked an experienced/very smart player.

Okay...got that down. So who are we looking at? Tass(who has been nullified because he's the vigilante), blah, Kefit, chardish, alain.

Okay, cool. Most likely one of those 4 that are the Master Wolf.

Now that we have that down, we need to talk more about what people are saying instead of what we THINK the wolves are going to do, or what they did. If these wolves are smart, they could do exactly what we said, or the exact opposite. Obviously if there's a wolf amongst the people who have been posting(likely), they probably said the exact opposite thing of what they REALLY did to throw everyone off.

I think there needs to be more conversing in the TWG chat so that we are able to see what's going on with everyone. Right now I'm suspicious of alain, and a few know why. Another I have a feeling about, and only a feeling about, is aperson. In the last game I played with him he was throwing out ideas left and right and I hardly see him participating this game. He hasn't said anything about those "linguistic analyses" so there could be a possibility he's not talking about it this game to stay under the radar. Anyone else have ideas or find anything sketchy while talking to someone?

[Tasselfoot]

Don't forget aperson Jurs.... although he hasn't won a game and only played in two... his skills are well respected, and BECAUSE he hasn't played much, he flies under the radar more. So, don't foget about him. He should be in that list too.

[JurseyRider734]

True, I was going to add him. I don't know why I didn't, thats why I put "experienced/very smart" players, keeping aperson in mind under the "very smart" list. But yeah, thats why I'm suspicious of him, if you read.

[User6773]

So, my idea is that they most likely went for an average player that we believe we can trust, and make them the master wolf so they can slip into an alliance and feed back info to their wolf buddies.

Now we go back to the "which cup has the poison" question. What is the wolves knew we were going to think that and thus decided to mark a power player? When would the second-guessing end?

I don't think we can operate like this. It's stupid for the wolves to not pick a power player for reasons I've iterated many times in previous posts, and it's really really stupid for them to make a master someone who won't be seered.

On the other hand, what I see now that really worries me is that we're only looking after power players as potential wolves. Wolves are random, and it's a good bet some newbie wolf is using this as an opportunity to fly under the radar, stay out of conversation, and not make waves.

[Tasselfoot]

Still waiting to speak to Mead, Spheroid, and Flypie. After I talk with them I'll be able to figure some things out.

[aperson]

Okay guys, this 'which cup has the poison' debate has some merit, and please, can we call it Sicilian reasoning.

Here's how we can break the logical process tree down.

The humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass
The wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass

therefore, the wolves do not choose Tass.

------

On a two-level logic chain:

The humans think that the wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass

Therefore the wolves move down a tier to make their selection.

-----

Now we must ask, do the wolves believe that the humans would follow this reasoning this far? If so:

The wolves think that the humans think that the wolves would not choose Tass, rather they would choose a next tier player.

Therefore the wolves can either choose Tass or choose a below-next tier player.

------

The question is, did the wolves think all the way to the 3rd branch of the logic chain or the second? I would wager to say they followed to the second. Following a sicilian chain to the 3rd branch is not common, I see these same conjectures all the time in poker as a 'what does my opponent think that I think he has' type of argument, and I must rarely think my decision all the way out to the 3rd branch.

Therefore, I will wager to say that the wolves either chose Tasselfoot or a next-tier player as their Master Wolf.

The logical pool of players for Master Wolf is: Tasselfoot, blah, Kefit, chardish, alain, and aperson. This pool was created by Jursey and Tasselfoot.

Therefore, seeing any of these players is dangerous as a return of human is not definitive.

[Matthew4444]

I would like to propose a specific plan of action for the seering in this game.

First off, we have established that the mark is a powerful player and is also probably the MW, or at least the MW is a powerful player. Since choosing a weaker player would be much more of a sacrifice just to confuse us, this possibility has been ruled out.

As for the actual plan, it is simply that the Seer only seers the lesser players, and lets Tass be the messenger, just in case. It is likely that there may be at least one wolf among the lesser players, so at least we might get rid of a lesser wolf quickly. It also means that in order to hurt the alliance, the wolves will have to shoot at the lesser players, wasting a kill on a better player. If we allow mid- to high-level players to get seered, then the wolves just need to take them out to both hurt the human's brain power and the alliance.

[Tasselfoot]

Matt.... not only was that exact strategy mentioned already... its common sense.

Thanks for keeping track with the thread.


And, to further ap... I think it is safe to say that I am NOT in the pool for MW. Making it Blah, Kefit, Alain, Aperson, Chardish.... maybe Guido for the same reasoning that I picked him to be the wolf in TWG9 Manhunt.