TWG XI - BEMSTYL WOLF TRIBE VICTORY DAY 8

[whorlichan]

Ugh. Once again with the inactivity votes? Omega, I'm sorry I'm neutral. Say something suspicious (or wait until someone else does) and then I'll make a contribution. Meanwhile, I prefer not to vote off a human.

[lightdarkness]

I was going to wait for more info, but I then realized I'm not going to get it, so here comes my vote.

Afrobean gets my vote. Call it a day one hunch, but some of his comments don't seem like himself. The whole "Wolf found out the other wolf" thing is just odd. I was talking to someone else and they shared the same suspicion, so I figured I'd throw my vote out there.

[Omeganitros]

Whatever floats your boat. That's just my vote. If it's true what you wrote, I hope you aren't smote.

Does that rhyme work?

[eyespewgreekfire]

Going out on a limb, I vote eb. His voting reason here is absolutely bogus. It is not like there is much better to go on, but he seems to be scavenging for targets with that sort of logic.

PS I am fully aware my voting reason is pretty weak too. :P

[evilbutterfly]

Well I guess that solves the mystery of who and why I get voted for wrongly day 1. And you bring up a good point: we have hardly any reasoning. You'd think with 2 kills we'd have twice the evidence, but I, for one, am stumped. But I always am, so may be I'm missing something. The day ends pretty soon, right? Having a 4 (or 5, whatever it is) way tie is not what we need on Day 1. I'm too busy (school junk) to look through the thread and pick apart posts for a good basis for a vote, so somebody please find something for us to go on. If not, somebody innocent may die due a coin flip. And that would suck =\

[talisman]

Ok, I'm going to go ahead and try to make my mind up about who to vote now, in the off chance that I don't get home tomorrow til after 5:30 or whenever it is day one ends.

Only problem is, it doesn't seem like the wolves have given us much to work with, except futile speculation over why nforcer was killed. Also, alot of chat discussion thus far has been more about the nature of this kind of three team game and less about what's actually going on in the game (when it isn't OT completely or dead).

So I'm going to work with the only logical conclusion I can make thus far: that at least ONE of the SIX (could technically be four now) wolves has made a post in the thread thus far, and since only 15-16 people have posted, this narrows the field of 21 I have to select from down considerably (not 22 because I'm not going to vote for myself).

Now I went and took a look at TWGs four through ten and discovered that, indeed, by page three to four on day one, all the wolves had at least gotten one post in. (I didn't look at TWG V though... couldn't find the postgame. The only exception to this rule was the game when alain didn't know he was in it). And as a general rule, the people who tended to be more active tended to be the first among wolves to post. Obviously, active people are going to post before inactive people in general anyways, but it just needed to be said.

So with that said, I figure that in this game with so many people, at least one of the wolves is a typically active player, potentially even a typically strong player, since so many are present in this game, and I figure that person or those people have posted already in this thread. People might argue that wolves will remain inactive in the beginning of a game, but I think wolves are aware of that stereotype and thus avoid being categorized that way (as I already showed with the analysis of previous day ones in TWGs). Also, I think that this game makes those who might tend to be more inactive as humans even more inactive, just because not having a special role or being a wolf in a game with a such a degree of complexity might sort of turn people off to towards trying hard or paying attention alot (I don't know about this... I write it as a way to show why I'm picking one of the more active people who have already posted as opposed to one of the inactive who hasn't).

If all my logic and assumptions hold true then (and of course this could be the one game in which none of the wolves post within the first four pages), then I think it's probable, not necessarily, likely, but probable that either blah, ld, eb, omega, afrobean, or aperson is a wolf. Why isn't tass on the list? His willingness to be seered is far too human. Or at least seems to be to me. I can't see any hole in his idea.

Among that list... I really have no definitive proof one way or the other. Afro seems to be bringing up some farfetched ideas (but does that make him a wolf?), ld hasn't really posted anything especially substantive, but he did volunteer his website to host the chat log, omega I don't know how to read... his vote seems kind of casual... I don't know, like he was tring to get it out of the way or something, aperson did seem rather quick to pressure (and declare suspicion) afro about his [afro's] suggestion that nforcer was a wolfed wolf, eb has made a point to mention how he always comes off as a wolf no matter what, this could be cover or just truth, or both, I don't have enough experience to tell, and in general his posts have been informative on the whole.

That leaves blah. And I vote for him for three reasons... one he hasn't been as active as I expected a power player with his reputation to be thus far (of course just my expectations), two because he is withholding his ideas (of course this could be innocent... I'm sure everyone has ideas they are withholding), but thirdly, and mainly, because at this stage I don't want to lynch a human... and I feel that other players might be less likely to vote for him. In other words, I don't want him gone... in fact I kinda want to know what his ideas are, I just picked one from (who I consider) active players. If he is in trouble tomorrow because of this post, I will seriously reconsider changing my vote.

Now to rest my fingers.

[evilbutterfly]

eb has made a point to mention how he always comes off as a wolf no matter what, this could be cover or just truth, or both, I don't have enough experience to tell

I've said this since my first game, and it always gets me a vote. Even when I'm a wolf, I stress that I always seem like a wolf. I'm not sure why, but this just seems to be the case.

[Tps222]

Can we get an update when this round ends.

I wouldn't vote Blah. Once again, with my control damage theory, he is a strong player. We should vote off someone weak. At least he is active, thus he has a chance to slip-up, if he is a wolf. If we vote off a power player, and he is human, bad for us. Also, if we vote him out, then we will have less active players left, thus less of a chance for someone to mess up. We want the most active players left, more discussion=more evidence.

[talisman]

Tps did you read my request about locating where you and nforcer had that chat you discussed on page one? It's on page four.

EDIT: And why aren't you asking ld and eyespew and eb about their votes for afro, eb, and ld, respectively? They're also active players, if not considered as strong as blah.

[Cenright]

I like your speculations Talisman, but I dont think your conclusions are very good.
But to use some of the good things you said, I vote Omeganitros.

Also, for a few more reasons.

I...Don't do chats. I don't know why, I just don't. I'm even pretty quiet whenever I get on AIM. Therefore, if you want me to get on chat or AIM, you're gona have to PM me to do so.

Ok, but you sure aren't quiet here. Someone that stays away from chats for security reasons. Ok, sure.

Also, keep in mind that there might have not been a wolf in chat at all. Remember, they like to stay low and not attract attention.

One, how would you know? Just cause you are lying low doesn't mean they all do, if, in fact I am right about you.
Two, how would that comment possibly help except to reassure us that there are no wolves? If it is so safe, why arent you there, since it is probably so secure? (Unless you already know there are some wolves in it?)

If I were a wolf, I would keep the smartest players alive (like Cenright, for instance). Then there's a good chance people will suspect them. Or, it could be random. If there's no patterns, then there's no clues.

Which is probably what is happening. The weaklings die to keep bandwagoning away from you, and as long as you look like a lower player, we slit each others throats, thinking that you will get it from a wolf?

[ImEric12]

Hmmm...

I was thinking some of the same things as Cenright, and Talismans post further advanced my ideas. But I don't think I'm ready to throw my vote in just yet.

[evilbutterfly]

@ that last quote, Cen: If he was a wolf and that was his plan, why would he post it? A veteran might do this to throw us off, but people who are new, and those new to being a wolf are often VERY careful of what they say and wouldn't bring up what they were doing.

[Tps222]

I didn't ask them because they didn't go against what I believed. Ld voted Afro for suspicions of weird posts, and eyespews was kind of random. Fine, grr eyespew. I was only against your voting process. Though, you did express your thoughts better then most, and had some sort of logic to it, it was against what I believed, thus I voiced my opinion, and showeed you in your ways of error, in my point. (Unless Blah is a wolf, then you can make fun of me forever). ABout the convo on the game, it wasn't much, I thought i was more, guess I was too tired to remember, bu there was a little between 11:15 pm, and 11:30 am. I was just trying to get a lead for day 1, but I guess I tried to hard. I'm expecting some votes for this.

[Omeganitros]

Also, keep in mind that there might have not been a wolf in chat at all. Remember, they like to stay low and not attract attention.

One, how would you know? Just cause you are lying low doesn't mean they all do, if, in fact I am right about you.
Two, how would that comment possibly help except to reassure us that there are no wolves? If it is so safe, why arent you there, since it is probably so secure?

Like I said, I just don't do chats. No particular reason for it other than I'm never on AIM. Kinda like a pet peeve, except it doesn't annoy me.

If I were a wolf, I would keep the smartest players alive (like Cenright, for instance). Then there's a good chance people will suspect them. Or, it could be random. If there's no patterns, then there's no clues.

Which is probably what is happening.

Just possibilities, blah blah blah...Don't take my word for it. In fact, keep your vote. I can see there's not much I can do to defend myself, and it's not something I'm good at doing.

[flypie743]

People might argue that wolves will remain inactive in the beginning of a game, but I think wolves are aware of that stereotype and thus avoid being categorized that way (as I already showed with the analysis of previous day ones in TWGs).

I agree. Inactivy does not mean they are a wolf.

That leaves blah. And I vote for him for three reasons... one he hasn't been as active as I expected a power player with his reputation to be thus far

Wait a minute I thought you just said inactivity didn't mean they were a wolf?


Just because he is inactive doesn't mean he is a wolf, even if he has been more active in the past, he could just be busy. Plus, there has not been much to post, and almost everyone has been rather inactive.