Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Yeah.
Yeah.
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Originally posted by Charu
Originally posted by ShadoWolfeOriginally posted by Celirra -
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Wolf Matrix, based on self-reporting data
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
DBP what on Earth is that?
Can you explain that to me using small words?
Originally posted by Funnygurl555Originally posted by DaBackpack
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
sunfan is generally the most suspicious, and T-Force the least, which is kind of interesting, considering how this game has gone
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Sure
I took each of the "top 3 wolf" lists from the scum pool and organized it into a chart. Each row in the chart represents that person's reads. A "3" is "most wolfy", a "1" is "least wolfy", gray cells are self-reads, green cells are those that didn't appear on that person's list.
So if you look at Row: YoshL and Column: Force, you see a 3, which means that YoshL has Force as top wolf.
The freq row indicates how frequently that column appeared on someone else's wolf list (e.g. YoshL appears on every single list except his own)
The Sum row is a sum of each column's values, to indicate a kind of overall suspicion momentum for each player
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Don't worry about that too much, it's just a visual way to display the information each player gave earlier
Next, I'm gonna try to go through the thread and find mutual exclusions (i.e. "who almost certainly cannot be on a team together?")
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
As far as aggregating and interpreting the data goes----
Like I said, YoshL appears on every other player's list, but never strongly.
Freezin only appears on 50% of the lists, but each time with the strongest suspicion. So, sunfan and Plop both have "Freezin wolf" as a strong conviction.
sunfan is generally the most suspected.
T-Force is generally the least suspected.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Actually, gonna do dead people's reads first.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
or the other world, where (still) the best thing people have is "yoshl PoE"
i think the matrix is cool, but also not examining it from a holistic point of view is literally skewing reasoning wrong from what you're saying here.
Originally posted by CharuComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
About Freezinice:
Way earlier in D0 he started a thunderdome between himself and FFA. How characteristic of him is this as either alignment? I can very well interpret this as, "I'm gonna feign machismo/confidence in this read I have so I appear more invested in solving. But I'm never gonna be in danger because I have numbers on my side"
In other words, the thunderdome is a performance of a logical gamble when in reality there's no risk--- but it's free town points
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
The weird (?) thing is that after that thunderdome didn't pan out, he ended up placing his vote on Ulli, even when FFA was still an option for a lynch
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Some compiled reads of the dead:
FFA:
That's about it. FFA thinks Freezin's read on Sunfan is bullshit:active players I don't feel great about:
freezin,plop
less active players I feel mostly okay toward:
yoshl, raeko
sunfan however refutes FFA's scumread on Freezin, and that seems to appease FFA a bit.<to freezin:> it's not something I've ever attributed to sunfan and it's not something I've ever seen you attribute to sunfan
in fact it most closely reminded me of sunfan's vote and dip on WV in that other game- who was a wolf
so ye that's p much it
FFA doesn't vote this phase, and then dies.
Ulli:
She calls one of YoshL's D0 posts towny. When forced to pick between T-Force and FFA, she picks FFA, and then dies.
Xiz:
Voted for Ulli because he thought about a Ulli/sunfan wolf pairing. We know this isn't true, but might still reflect on sunfan as to how he defended her. Raeko light town, YoshL gets a strong townread based on a single post on D0.I want to vote Ull simply because sunfan wont vote ull for just posting roles.
DBP will show up 20m before EOD
Funny/Force I see as T/W or T/T
haku off the table, feels towny
raeko super light towny, liked the "yeah i thought the same thing" quote, felt natural
YoshL saying "nah this isnt a mindmeld" to sunfan is really towny, so they are off the table
don't really care about anyone else
For the mistrial EoD, he votes Ulli.
By the end of the phase he felt extremely strong that FG/T-Force aren't W/W. He said they might be T/W, but is leaning more towards T/T.
Then T-Force wagon started (FG had her vote there first. FG convinced YoshL to vote for T-Force, but FG eventually swapped off. YoshL and Haku stayed.). Xiz was suspicious of the growing momentum on T-Force all of a sudden. But we know that the only person left alive on the T-Force wagon is YoshL. Then Xiz dies.
FG:
She initially notes raeko town, and sunfan as "ok." This later grows into sunfan becoming a town read. She makes a remark about being unimpressed by Freezin, and that his reads list was "a bunch of nothing."
Towards EoD:
She votes T-Force, probably for the meme at first. As mentioned above, she sells YoshL on voting for T-Force, making him the second vote on a T-Force wagon.
FG develops a real scumread on T-Force, worried that T-Force isn't playing along with the game. T-Force responds with something like, "that shitposting only applies for the first 24 hours" (is this even true?) and then things turn serious. This hurts FG's feelings and she moves her vote to Plopadop.i think we're seeing the same thing
but alas t-force, we're basically never on the same team so you know i've gotta do this
surprised this is more of a one way thing though. where's the rivalry?
The next day, she gets shit over her swap to Plop. Response:
^I don't think she ever delivered on this promise, but it's a good idea. We know now that the KitB was T/T and this is useful in the context of a reread.plop is always shady to me, but what was really shady here was his insistence on an ffa lynch over the alternatives. i feel like he should've known that wasn't be the best move here
the ulli flip gives me more confidence in going after the people who decided to shade both of them early on
Shadow asks how the fuck to read Plopadop. FG response:
I'm guessing that a wolf Plop is more likely to make astute defenses of town players because... he knows they're town. This is worth checking out this phase.wait really? i feel like he's rolled wolf quite a bit in the recent games i've played with him. the biggest thing i've observed from him is he's able to see through some of the bs misreads that people put out, which i guess shows some tmi
Then she gets replaced.
Subaru:
Unfortunately Subaru really doesn't give us a lot, because he decided to ISO his own slot (???). This is the closest thing we have from him (a bit jumbled, from my notes):
Later on, I think Plop responded with a big wallpost. This wallpost brings Subaru's read on Plop back to null, and he starts to grow more suspicious of YoshL. Then he dies.Top three town so far is
1. DBP
2. Freezin
3. somewhat Haku
Top three wolf is
1. Plop
2. ???
3. SOMEWHAT TF.
I'm not 100% certain TF could be one, but based on DBP's wall regarding the worlds between FG/TF and TF/Plop, I'm more convinced on the side that Plop could be one. I put "somewhat" for TF because the biggest reason outside of DBP's wall is because I've seen him in very many scumreads on top of that.
I left #2 blank because in all honesty I haven't been able to think of three candidates.
Haku I'm willing to put townlean for now because although he's had a few kerfuffles, I feel he's trustworthy to me, at least. I'm still keepin that redflip shenanigans you were tryna pull with Shadow a while back in mind, though.
I'm trusting DBP because he's one of the few people I saw that proposed stuff outside of the TF/FG combo, despite one of the other combos still including TF.
Freezin in all honesty is just a gutread. I don't have very much reasoning behind it. I'm still not
Other than that, I'm gonna take Shadow's advice and just chill in the present for now cuz I need to get actual present info.
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Haku's ISO is... gonna have to be its own thing. But you will notice a very consistent trend amongst the dead people: Plop is consistently scum.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
FWIW, every single person in this game (besides sunfan) has expressed suspicion of Plopadop and never really changed their minds on him.
(I'll have to go back and make sure I'm not wrong about sunfan. But regardless.)
Plop is like, 90% wolf here, imo.
Originally posted by MoogyOriginally posted by TWG Dan HedgehogComment
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