TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

DBP quick question for you:

Are you considering the posts and interactions from an emotional standpoint as well?

Like, for me, I get 0 emotion from YoshL when I read through his stuff

compared to maybe... We'll use Trevor as an example

Trevor (If we're town reading him) has a very dry and sarcastic tone which, if you happen to know the dude, you can pick up on

Sometimes. YoshL is pretty hard to nail down on tone I think, except in rare cases.

I mentioned this earlier but whenever I read Trevor based on tone I think he's wolfing, so I'm trying to... not do that this time.

If I see interesting, authentic emotion I'll point it out, since I do still think it can be useful to analyze outbursts and such

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I'm glad you think I'm using a meme quote. $2 says you also thought I was using the Michael Scott version of it whilst completely forgetting the origin of it. Dude, sometimes we just need to take a fuckin' shot.

And if you want to stand on your pedestal with your finger in the air talking about why we need to look elsewhere, please go for it.

But this game thread currently shows 3 candidates regarded by most to be wolves, so why are you trying to distract from that.

Like these two posts, to me, signal that he's being a sarcastic asshole, and he's kind of annoyed

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Something I've been thinking of as I use this thread to just get thoughts off my mind:

IF we manage to hit two wolves and I somehow manage to block at LEAST one wolf kill, we're out of mylo

This means nothing right now, but a neat thing to be hopeful for

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

every townread that Yoshl is getting is marginally disrespectful to Yoshl's scum range

Freezin, you were there in the Sacred Stones game saying "if Yoshl is scum, we've lost to him." If you're just giving him a d0 read, fine

Xiz, you know your townread of Yoshl is far too strong, like you have to be aware of this

Beat me to it.

As far as I'm concerned, everyone should always live in fear of yoshl.

At the start of the game I was entertaining the possibility that haku/shadow are wolfing together, but I've cooled on that idea now. Some of that stemmed from shadow seeming different from when I played with him in the AC game. He seemed more agro/adversarial here, but as the phase has gone on he's been acting more and more like Eugene so I feel he's town now.

Freezin seems natural and legit in terms of tone, focus, analysis, etc etc, so I think he's town. Same goes for Xiz and sunfan, but I don't want to lean too heavily into townreading them until I see an EOD or two. Let's say I'm cautiously optimistic there.

Ulle I'm a little less certain on now. Gut still says town, but her last big post reminds me too much of how I (and I suppose roundbox as well) tend to wolf. I'm not sure where the line of "a wolf would be more cautious of posting wolf-style" and "this is a wolf posting wolf-style" is...

FFA I'm really torn on, and that's kinda where I've been focusing. I think in general his posts and pushes read wolfy, but then when I asked him those questions earlier his response was quick and cogent, making me think he actually believes what he's putting forward and doesn't need to consult his fake narrative to make sure his story lines up. For others who've played with him when he's a wolf, how good is he at thinking on his feet?

Plopadop:

* Engages in a fake conversation with YoshL, it ends immediately
* Asks FFA about his read on YoshL
* Makes a comment that "everyone should always live in fear of YoshL"
* Makes a big post with his thoughts about the game.
* Never mentions YoshL in it.
* Straddles the line between FFA and Ulli, both of who end up as wagons.

That's less of a reads list and more me trying to vocalize my thought process since freezin made me realize I haven't really been doing that, lol

So where exactly is YoshL in your thought process, given that you literally JUST said to "live in fear" of him?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

alright, I wasn't expecting an exposé on this from you.

wrt mindset, I don't think you and I have really been on the same page, but to say that I "full on disagree with your mindset" would definitely be going too far.

Maybe part of this is the fact that you wolfed with Yoshl in Sacred Stones (where he was self-admittedly rusty) rather than were forced to play town against him, but I believe in my heart that Yoshl would answer my question of "Is what you said to me firmly within your scum range?" with the answer of "yes, it is." Now, he might not do this, because fuck sunfan, but I do believe that he has done nothing that should be clearing. Yoshl doesn't know how to not be a "vocally towny player [prodding people's responses.]"



I can sympathize with the mislynch bit, at least.



Go for it, hold your ground, buy 15 AR-15s and unload all of them into the air.

I'm not calling Yoshl scummy. My read on Yoshl is that he is on the signups list, and has a d0 pass from me. My point is that Yoshl can absolutely be mafia here. If your read is just a d0 pass, then we're closer than I thought we were on this read, but yours seems to have a very weak reason for justification, and you seem to be insisting that it is very strong.

The actual moment itself that you're talking about, yeah, it doesn't feel scummy to me, but that's about where that read ends for me. Even if Yoshl were scummy today, its not really the person I want to but heads with today (in fact, its the last person I would've tried to try to push a kill on [regardless of my alignment] today pre-signups, with Freezin being a close second and Haku being a virtual inevitability).

If you insist on the read, fine, I think its not a damn good read, and can easily be wrong. You haven't found Yoshl town for the right reasons, but yes, Yoshl has plenty

This conversation with Xiz also doesn't make a lot of sense if sunfan is paired with YoshL. There is 0 reason for sunfan to murder a strong townread on his wolf partner on D0. YoshL was never in trouble. A wolf sunfan literally doesn't even have to respond when Xiz says YoshL is strong town. Let it ride. It only helps you. The rest of the thread is too busy focusing on FFA and Ulli anyway.

According to the Wolf Matrix, sunfan and YoshL both have each other as 2nd-place wolves. With all of this in mind, as well as my past posts tonight, I'm willing to completely reject a sunfan/YoshL wolf pairing.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Can I also point out, DBP

The bolded text that you have for Ulle, is so contradictory

1. Plop says he's not sure, but says she's town on gut, but ALSO says that this is how he (Plop) usually plays as a wolf.

So he's gone up and down the town/wolf scale in one sentence here and uses self-meta to G U T READ town


It actually took my reading that section 4 times before I clicked those in together

Am I over analyzing that? Maybe.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Hindsight says contradictory was the incorrect word to use

I have no idea how to describe what I'm getting at here:

Best guess would be "It's everywhere" but just settles for town

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

thread catchup stream of consciousness


i don't think i'm being scum read by anyone in the game which feels nice and not nice because i was going to see if there would be anything to glean out of if there was some split

thoughts as i'm catching up with the thread

@Ulle big post #344 http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=344
mechanics discussing will always have the input of wolves able to skew strategies, and be privvy to strat busting

Haku's long page feels horrible and is like a regression back towards null from towny early. huge tower posts where quotes are saying more than the "analysis" just feels so bad, and it's mostly just re-iterating what happened in the thread without treading too much new ground. At most, haku offers up small commentary reads, but there's not much to actually focus on.

mellon and freezin have been generally null for me, i don't think i have enough from mellon's posts to really have a solid read yet.
freezinice i don't think (to be completely honest) i have spent enough time trying to read yet this game, because i haven't seen anything jump out to me yet that makes me lean freezin one way or the other

I think i'm feeling fine with plop this phase, at least based on general problem solving attempts (e.g. #387 http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=387)

sunfan's grilling of xiz that follows actually doesn't feel too good with me, but it's unfortunately one of those things that i can't really put my finger on, some strange cordiality in thread that makes me feel weird.

T-Force describing FFA (#398 http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=398) is literally how I think of ffa, and to be completely honest, I've been doing mostly what i can to steer clear of saying that myself, because I have already large sus on ffa for leaning me town early game which feels wrong lmao

sunfan feels better from the dbp vote, it's more along the lines of what i was thinking, which i posted briefly later in thread.

feeling out shadow still, and at the very least, tone feels natural. the foot down @ ffa (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=405) feels like something they'd say based on the limited posts and discord messages i've read from them.

Haku #425 (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=425) fg null, with questionable reads? unsure if i missed fg reads at all, or if haku's making this up.
His following post is also really strange, because i don't see the logic jump from (Ulle/T-Force are sort of tied by fate in this coin flip timeline.) to (leaning to vote Ulle in order to indirectly solve T-Force/Sunfan.)
#436 haku also says (I can hypothetically town read FFA/T-Force/Ulle/Yoshl, but im playing with fire.) in his consolidated reads list which is even more confusing

[EDITOR'S NOTE: PLOP QUOTE ADDED FOR CONTEXT]
Ule's only substantial read was a townread of yoshl for townhunting, and yoshl's biggest post (IIRC) was our discussion about her big mechanics post. While he casted shade on her, the conclusion was we'd wait to see whether she incorporates her analysis later on. I could see it as a wolf coaching/distancing thing.
-ED.

(from plop)
will clarify that because i've never played w/ ulle or really even read anything they've ever posted from any previous games, it's more of a legitimately unsure type situation given that there was i think like 1-2 people who said they're very mechanics heavy

-----

(i'm at post 480, but i want to get my thoughts in if people respond or other stuff happens before i can finish catching up)

Some more YoshL/Plop stuff.

Regarding the Plop quote in here:

Ule's only substantial read was a townread of yoshl for townhunting, and yoshl's biggest post (IIRC) was our discussion about her big mechanics post. While he casted shade on her, the conclusion was we'd wait to see whether she incorporates her analysis later on. I could see it as a wolf coaching/distancing thing.

Dude, you literally agreed with him and dropped the subject--- why now all of a sudden do you suspect coaching?

Feeling less paranoid about yoshl after reading that analysis post, and I like the unique trains of thought FG has going on. Haku does seem more committed to his reads than usual, but there's still the usual fluctuations there too, I think, just less than normal.

Where is this paranoia coming from? You've like never mentioned it???

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Couple thoughts from re-reading:

Don't think FG/Ule are W/W, but Yoshl/Ule being W/W wouldn't surprise me.

Raeko's iso is mostly responding to pings and casting shade. I don't see much town-hunting or town-reading going on. Seems suspicious... Raeko, do you have any townreads or townleans?

Why wouldn't it surprise you? Just out of curiosity.

Also what separates FG from YoshL in these two pair ups?

Ule's only substantial read was a townread of yoshl for townhunting, and yoshl's biggest post (IIRC) was our discussion about her big mechanics post. While he casted shade on her, the conclusion was we'd wait to see whether she incorporates her analysis later on. I could see it as a wolf coaching/distancing thing.

For FG, in her iso she defends ule and brings her up at least a few times, at one point joking that they're wolfing together. Don't think wolf FG would be that focused on a teammate, especially with so few posts (unless it were T-Force, of course).

Some context for the YoshL quote.

Feeling less paranoid about yoshl after reading that analysis post, and I like the unique trains of thought FG has going on.

What exactly about YoshL's analysis post eased your paranoia? Where did this paranoia even come from? You sounded pretty dispassionate when you said, "I wouldn't be surprised if Ulle/YoshL were W/W". It didn't really seem to bother you that much, because literally as soon as you say that you move on from it and interrogate Raeko about something completely unrelated.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I think this is the first concrete post of t-force that i don't like, because it feels a little more like a gross oversimplification of why people (at least, to me) want to vote Ulle here, and it's much more than "not having enough time to play and catch up with thread", and generalization makes me swing tforce way into wolf side. While I actually think this doesn't necessarily tie him with ulle, I think it's much more indicative of a "not concerned with solving the game" attitude.

Like, this post does a lot in calling people out for doing something, but it also doesn't do a lot in taking a stance of "behavior is wolfy, or null, or towny"

This will likely be relevant when studying YoshL and T-Force.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Interesting... If he's less aggressive as town then that'd line up with his game here...

I don't know what to think!

fake

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Couple questions as I continue rereading:

1) When freezin plays town, is he the type of player who tries to act townie for the benefit of other townies, or is he the type of player who expects his towniness to speak for itself?

2) When yoshl plays scum, does he have any sort of modus operandi on which types of players he pushes to get mislynched or which sorts of wagons he joins/creates?

It's harder to directly tie Plop to Freezin, but it still makes more sense than Plop/sunfan and Plop/T-Force at the moment

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Opposite. Good as in he's off to a townie start.

(Re: Subaru)

This is another "devil's advocate"/contrarian take, one which he rides to the very end of the phase. In fact, if we look at the final votecounts:

D0 final votecount:

flashflash account (4) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma
Ulleabhara (4) - Xiz, FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan

------

Not Voting (2): flashflash account, Ulleabhara


D1 final votecount:

SubaruPoptart (6) - Shadow_God_10, FreezinIce, TWGma, DaBackpack, Hakulyte, the sun fan
TWGma (3) - fatfuck42, YoshL, SubaruPoptart
fatfuck42 (1) - mellonxcollie

We have both Plop and YoshL on a tiny D1 T-Force wagon. This makes perfect sense from Plop's perspective, since he knows that Subaru is doing a horrible job defending himself, and that most of town is going to ??? him and FG's slot--- after all, the main topic of discussion had been T-Force/FG at that point. Plop, knowing this T-Force/FG split was gonna be the theme of EoD, took the "contrarian" position: the unintuitive one that "Subaru is town, guys!"

And yet--- knowing full well that Subaru was going to be lynched, he would easy peasy be able to enter this phase (MYLO) with a perfect mislynch alibi. "I've been sus of T-Force, I even voted for him yesterday! Can we please just kill him?" It's likely that YoshL did this too, in order to give himself a free ride through MYLO.

Of course, it would be pretty weird if T-Force was the unanimous suspect today, so there is a bit of variation in the Wolf Matrix--- YoshL has T-Force as a 3, Plop only has T-Force as a 1. But despite this, because of voting patterns and breadcrumbing, both Plop and YoshL have absolutely plausible alibis as to why they'd be OK with a T-Force lynch.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Another stray observation, from looking at the votecounts: Plopadop is the first vote on both of his wagons, which on the surface would indicate leadership and confidence, but in practice really reveals a lack of panic or concern during CFDs. He also has a proclivity for hard defending the competing wagon targets, in a way that doesn't really feel justified. (A mismatch between "low effort", "low panic", and "high read confidence")

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Where's everyone's head at as far as EOD goes? For me, I can't imagine I'll vote outside of my wolf leans (freezin, yoshl, t-force).

Yesterday, he lists has wolf leans as Freezin, YoshL, and T-Force. Of course, based on his analysis post from that phase, he had Freezin and YoshL both in "light wolf"-tier and T-Force in "wolf" tier... conveniently. We know that he ended up voting for T-Force last phase, but if we look at the Wolf Matrix again:



Now FREEZIN is most sus, and T-Force is LEAST sus. This is seemingly incongruent, so I'm gonna try to see if/where he justifies this switch. (Or, he can justify it after reading this )

My gut is telling me that, since Plop has been playing a completely contrarian game, his job on the wolf team is to make it seem like T-Force isn't the de facto sacrificial lamb. I imagine his job is to push back a little bit against voting T-Force, and instead being contrarian and pushing Freezin first. Knowing, of course, that the rest of us wanted T-Force mega-dead, so he would "compromise" on T-Force, since he still has those T-Force lynch breadcrumbs.

Plop's mistake, however, was not realizing that this morning (IRL), sunfan would pop in and ALSO list Freezin as his highest scum. Freezin actually has a pretty good chance of dying this phase--- at least, before I popped in with this massive fucking expose on Plop himself, hopefully. It would be pretty funny to watch Plop actually retract his hard Freezin scumlean and move it to T-Force, to make the T-Force mislynch a more certain thing, but I digress.