TWG XIX: Atomic Apocalypse: It just keeps going and going...

[talisman]

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Well now this is intriguing.

Lots of possibilities here...

A) the seer seered a wolf that wasn't danceguy, and knows that this pm-er is a fake.

B) the seer seered a human but hasn't contacted them yet and knows that the pm-er is a fake.

C) the seer seered a human and did contact them and two people thus know the pm-er is a fake.

D) the seer seered danceguy who came up wolf and is the pm-er.

Reason danceguy wouldn't get seered:

-relatively new to TWG (not jTWG).

Reason danceguy would get seered:

-he has proven himself active, and would undoubtedly participate fully in an alliance.

Reason wolves would fake the pm and choose danceguy, of all people, as their target:

-they realize that picking a higher level player might be more suspicious.

(but seriously, if the wolves did this, why didn't they pick like ld, or afro, or someone like that?)

Reason the wolves wouldn't fake the pm:

-they know that whoever they pick, if that person gets lynched everyone knows that if that person was a human or wolf, thus revealing whether the pm-er was real or not.

So the only way it's fake is if the wolves are really clever and ballsy... they pick someone that would be both a legitimate seering choice and not someone who the everyone would assume the wolves would pick, and they're praying for an instalynch or close to it on that person so that their votes are more easily disguised.

Otherwise I think it's real.

[ImEric12]

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Tps is starting to look suspicious to me, as well, but I don't want to jump on him like I did last game =\

Jurs struck me as suspicious when she started talking about who she thought the PM was sent by, or who the seer was, but maybe she meant that she thought the PM was a fraud. Basically pretty unfounded suspicion, just figured I'd voice it.

[ImEric12]

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Oh yeah, when does this day end? I've got a party tonight and another tomorrow night.

[mead1]

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The mystery pm is really a weird happening. I kind of want to believe what is being said. Here is my reasoning.

It has already been stated by Tass that one of the wolves generally makes a "oh shi good kill" post. dAnce immediately moved to discredit it. Now for a moment assume that one of them was a wolf, and that dAnceguy was a wolf as well. Most of the actions he has taken this game have been to protect the group of people who made this opening statement. It would be a safe and easy way to protect a fellow wolf, as he isn't connecting himself with one person, he is protecting a group. This makes it much less likely in the accusers mind that he was protecting a specific person.

This kind of thinking makes me a bit suspicious of him. If you think about it, he is also a likely seering candidate. Last game he was a major force. He is very active, and seems to be a rather smart fellow. dAnce has the quality of being very likeable, yet very forgettable (No offense intended). These things would make him a likely alliance candidate.

In synopsis, I believe dAnce is a wolf. I also believe one or more of the LD/Omega/Afro/Eric group is a wolf.

My vote may change depending upon later developments, but it will currently rest on dAnce.

[Tps222]

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Talisman, another possiblity could be that the PM was faked, but the seer did in fact see Danceguy(yes, I type it that way, oh well) and he is a wolf. Though, that would be a strange coincidence.

Yea, the evidence against me is looking pretty girm for me, since I ws a wolf the last game AP was wolfed, and how I say Danceguy is the same way it is said in the PM. Though, I'm not going to go pull any "Rofl, I'm the MW", like last game. I actually want to win this game, so, if anyone has any questions on me, IM.

Now, other then me, who could fake it? What about Danceguy himself? It would be a genious idea to throwpeople off, figuring it would never work. Though, it would be hard to predict the reaction to pm's like this. If he is a wolf, it might be pretty risky. Or, he could just be a bored human.

LD could have pulled it as well, using the seer'd thing to throw us off. "Oh, he wouldn't use that twice".

Roop's comment is a bit off-topic, and strikes me funny.

And here is my suspicion list of the day. QreepyBoris, Kilgamayan, Eric. Those are the people that strike me funny, that's it.

[Tasselfoot]

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First, I just got home from work... therefore, I can't be the mystery PMer. Was gone from whenever I made my last post, til about 5 minutes ago.

Second, I completely think this mystery PM thing is retarded. Not only does it waste a good 30 minutes of someone's life, the EXACT SAME F-ING THING CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED BY POSTING UNDER YOUR REAL NAME. Jesus Christ... have some balls people.

This is what I see: if this is real, the seer can come forward.... say they are the seer, and accuse dAnce face to face. I'll vote for him in a second after that. Then, after dAnce is lynched, eb reveals his role. If he is a wolf, said seer gets guarded until the guardian gets killed (if ever) and AN ALLIANCE IS FORMED, saving a seering... If dAnce comes back human... we kill the person who came forward.

So, clearly... if this is fake, dAnce is human, and no one will come forward. Or, if it is fake, the real seer COULD come forward, but that would make things alot more complicated (trust me, I could go into it, but I won't)... so we'll stick with no one comes forward.

Synopsis:

PM is by the seer: Seer comes forward, we kill dAnce, we have 2 wolves left and a known seer + unknown guardian working with seer
PM is by the wolves: Nobody comes forward, dAnce is confirmed a human, seer & guardian go to dAnce and a bigger alliance is formed (considering the seer would have another person they seered, unless they seered the guardian or human dAnce). Also, it would be a solid assumption that one of the 3 (I think there are 3) votes for dAnce is a wolf, trying to give support for their plan.


Any flaws in my plan? Apart for if the guardian gets killed, the seer dies the very next night... but, that ONE negative is greatly outweighed by the positive.

[talisman]

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The only flaw is if the seer is afraid to come out (in the case that he is sinsinsalibin), and danceguy would become a confirmed human (by your reasoning) when in fact he is a wolf.

However, if the seer does indeed come out (and was the person who wrote the pm) then I think we've found the loophole that could blow this game open. Same goes for if it's the wolves behind the pm and the seer stays back.

[mead1]

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I don't think the seer would come out even after your coaxing Tass. With the roles revealed after each killing, they well know when/if the gaurdian dies that they are toast. People like being blue, and they aren't quick to make any move that is at all risky.

EDIT: Darn, Talisman beat me.

[QreepyBORIS]

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Tass's idea is great. Awesome.

The only issue were if the letter were fake, Danceguy (oh, hey, I type it that way as well!) was a wolf, and the seer did not come forward, It could happen.

Or if Danceguy were a wolf and he or another wolf made the letter, and he claimed to have made the letter aginst himself so he could be percieved as human. That or Danceguy claims to be the seer if he were a wolf, and the seer also came out. That could be tricky. Or if Danceguy, assuming he is a wolf, came out and pretended to be the seer while the seer did not make his identity public. That would also be tricky.

Of course, I am making this stupidly convoluted, and I am not really taking it in any direction.

Where was I going with this? Dunno....

EDIT: Okay, looks like two people got here before I did. Blast.

[dAnceguy117]

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If I was a wolf and the seer was afraid to come out with the guardian known to be alive, that would just be absolutely retarded.

props2tass

[mead1]

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dAnce, your statement is true, but it doesn't do anything for the theories of the pm being wolf-made.

[Tasselfoot]

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Frankly Mead... this game has changed from being about the person to being about the TEAM. Especially without pips. So, F-off to the seer who isn't willing to go all the way to put the team way out ahead.

There is ZERO reason for the seer NOT to come out if the Mystery PMer is the seer.

So let me repeat......

Seer comes out, dAnce = wolf
Seer DOESN'T come out, dAnce = human.

The ONLY loophole in that is if the wolves were a step ahead of me and realized I'd realize all of this, and made the PM to implicate a wolf and get him to be a human.... and frankly, if that is the case, the wolves deserve to win.

[QreepyBORIS]

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Well, then you'd have to consider who the wolves could be to think up such a good plan.

It's unlikely. But there are a few people in this game who could do that, and if that were the case (which again seems unlikely), it wouldn't be terribly hard to figure out who.

[Tasselfoot]

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If I were the seer, I'd be more than willing to take these odds. Alas, I'm not the seer. Then again, if I were, I wouldn't have seered dAnce.

[JurseyRider734]

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I really did not look at Danceguy. I wanted to see the reaction you all would have, in case I did catch a wolf, in you would go through with it. Obviously you didn't. I want to let you know I'm the real seer, but I can't reveal who I seer'd last night, for I fear that they be killed. Obviously this means they are human. I really hope you believe me.

In response to tass's plan: It's great, but it relied on Dance as the seer target, and he wasn't. So for obvious reasons I'm not coming out publicly. I'm sorry for this.

Dear Seer,

You are a retard.

Love, Jursey