TWGXVIII: LD wins (Wolves win on day 8)

[Kilgamayan]

I don't see much wrong with it, given you have no reason to trust the source one way or the other. Hell, I could make a random alternate account and flood everyone's PM boxes with notes saying I saw someone that was a wolf.

And flypie as a seer choice within the first two days doesn't make much sense to me. If I were the seer, right now chardish would be my main priority - blah aside he's probably the best player here, and has aroused suspicions from a few people. Other seer candidates for the purposes of getting someone good on your side would be Guido, myself or LD, and if the seer is hunting around for wolves among the people who acted suspicious, we had plenty of options present themselves on Day 1. Combine that with the lack of a name, and I'm taking that PM with a grain of salt.

[Tps222]

It wasn't me this time, I didn't even recieve a pm. Why seer flypie anyways? Seer me. Weird how EB is the only one so far who got it.

[evilbutterfly]

TPS, it's prolly because I demanded it. In any case, if I don't get another PM from the real seer, I'll assume this one is genuine.

And I also wondered why somebody would seer flypie. Then I remembered that several people I've talked to said that seering random people or purposely seering people who likely won't die is a great idea. Why the hell would flypie die? She hasn't done anything wolfy, nor has she done anything to vastly help the humans. Hence, there's not much chance of losing her as an alliance member if she is to be seered. Although, there are other people that fit that bill that would probably be better to have, but I dunno.

AND WHAT IS WITH THE SLOWDOWN IN POSTING! Seriously you guys, I expected my post to cause a lot of discussion, and now this crazy PM. We need more discussion people come on!!

[Tps222]

I want a pm too.

Seer Me.

I'm pretty sure EB is human. I want to hear from Guido, Chardish, and Blah. I don't wan't tp see him get banned, is everything ok with him?

[dAnceguy117]

Sorry, I've been gone, like I said I might be. Not cool.

I find that PM horribly suspicious. The real seer would not just tell someone random that they don't trust that they're the seer, they would wait until they seered a human to tell them. Shouldn't they have seered a human night 1? And if not, shouldn't they have mentioned both seered wolves in the PM?

On top of that is the fact that they seered Flypie. I know you want to seer people that aren't likely to die so you can build your alliance, but there are still other people that fit that bill, and more active people, too.

Speaking of inactivity, where is Blah? Day 2 comes around and he has 0 posts, wtf. I don't want him to get banned :< Oh, and who is going to replace BBQ or whatever?

[Afrobean]

The real seer would not just tell someone random that they don't trust that they're the seer

Notice that the seer didn't tell eb who they were. I imagine eb just got a PM from someone named "TWGSeer" or something. eb, wanna back me up here?

Shouldn't they have seered a human night 1?

Uhh... not necessarily. I was talking to jurs just now, and there's a master wolf, and as everyone knows, master wolf seer'd comes back human. Any game with master wolf means that just because the seer gets human doesn't necessarily mean that the seer wants to start an alliance with them or even tell them that they'd been seer'd.

Now, based on how long this info has been out, and the fact that no one has come to eb saying that they are the seer and they didn't seer flypie, tells me that this was for real. At the very least, another fake name'd PM (if the seer didn't want eb to know their identity, which is the case here anyway) would have come to eb saying that the first wasn't real.

I'm anxious to see flypie's response, but this evidence seems pretty strong, so I'm gonna throw a vote on flypie.

[lightdarkness]

I was playing on voting for flypie before day even started, this seer business is a bonus!

She's been talking to me the whole game, insisting I'm blue rather than every other game where she calls me a wolf right off the bat. Then after I called her on that, she thinks i'm a red because I didn't want to talk about twg once, when I wanted to talk about something personal. I think she understands that, but I haven't talked to her since that TWG converstaion.

As for the reason for her being seer'd, I think that was my doing. I talked to 3 people before "day" started (Haven't asked any of them yet, if you want to just come forward, let me know), and i'm guessing the seer is one of them. I also voiced my concerns to Kilga after day had started, but honestly it could be anyone.

I'd be willing to post the log between Kilga and I if anyone wants... it pretty much sums up everything I've said.

[evilbutterfly]

It has been brought up that this is kinda weird, and that I may just be the seer and I'm saying there is somebody else. I'd love to screenshot my PM, but I'm fairly sure something like that is against the rules. I think I know why the seer would do this, and I will say it now:

There's no guardian. I stepped up and did something. I asked for the seer to contact me. Right now, I'm probably in the wolves' sights. They killed talisman, probably because he was being too helpful. I'm being as helpful as I can be, and that's dangerous to the wolves. So, as somebody who is out there and apparently willing to die for the human cause (I stopped caring about dying quite some time ago), the seer figured I would be a good choice because I would act on it, regardless of whether or not the wolves would kill me.

I was talking to somebody (I forget who, my memory sucks ass) about this before. We were saying how the seer needed somebody they could tell the seerings to so that the humans would know who to vote for. I kept saying that it'd still be dangerous, since whoever does that will surely die, and few people would want to be in that position. One of the wolves' main concerns is to silence the humans. The seer could have a 4-5 person alliance and know a wolf, but if all those people suddenly vote one person, it becomes blatently obvious who is in the alliance, and wolves can pick the alliance apart as quickly as it is formed. Thus, an alliance usually has a frontman, somebody who posts "I am in the alliance, and seer saw **** as a wolf." If, after that, people all vote for the same person, they're bandwagoning and blindly following the frontman. They may or may not be in the alliance, the wolves don't know.

Of course, the frontman is usually guaranteed protection by the guardian. With the guardian dead, we aren't afforded the simple solution of a frontman who serves as the public part of the alliance. It's just not safe. So the simple solution that the seer seems to have chosen was to get a person not in the alliance to serve as the frontman. They tell me anonymously, and what could go wrong? If I'm a wolf and don't say anything, they'd know I'm a wolf and seer me next, giving them two people to kill. If I'm an innocent human, I'll of course share this wonderful news and get the wolf killed. And if the wolves kill me tonight because I led to one of their deaths, that's okay, because I wasn't in the alliance and I won't be a huge loss.

Trust me, if I was the seer, I would NOT be doing this. I don't care if I die if I bring down a wolf, but if bringing down a wolf means losing the seer, that's not a fair trade. I'll probably die for this, which will suck, but that's okay because I'm doing my part. I just wish we'd all be talkative and helpful so that the wolves would have a harder time picking who to kill :P. Of course, they may leave me alive for suspicion and so you all lynch me, but me being the seer's outlet may be too big of a threat for them. *shrug*

[flypie743]

She's been talking to me the whole game, insisting I'm blue rather than every other game where she calls me a wolf right off the bat. Then after I called her on that, she thinks i'm a red because I didn't want to talk about twg once, when I wanted to talk about something personal. I think she understands that, but I haven't talked to her since that TWG converstaion.

Okay, first of all, I didn't call you a wolf right away because you have been acting differently. I HAVE SEEN YOU ACT AS A WOLF AND I KNOW WHAT YOU ACT LIKE. YOU WEREN'T ACTING LIKE THAT. I have played in a game where you were blue once and that was TWG II. I know how you act as red and green, but you weren't acting like either of those, so I assumed blue. You just completely blew off TWG when I was talking to you and tried to cover it up with some bs personal issues or something, but that still isn't like you. You haven't talked to me since that TWG conversation because I was out all day and I just got back from a friend's party...that's obviously why. Plus, you were all "YOU'RE PUSHING ME WAH WAH WAH" when you do that to me like every game. I said no more than 8 lines to you and you say I am pushing you. Wow some pushing I must've done.

As for the reason for her being seer'd, I think that was my doing. I talked to 3 people before "day" started (Haven't asked any of them yet, if you want to just come forward, let me know), and i'm guessing the seer is one of them. I also voiced my concerns to Kilga after day had started, but honestly it could be anyone.

Yeah why you even talked to them I don't know. I SAID 8 THINGS TO YOU AND YOU CLAIM I AM PUSHING YOU TO HARD. You have pushed me a whole lot more than that but I don't put any bs calls on you like you are doing to me now.

This is a whole load of bs. First of all, I admit it I'm not the best player in this game. WHY WOULD THE SEER SEE ME ON NIGHT 2? It just doesn't make sense when others like Chardish, Blah, and Guido are playing. I haven't done anything wolfish, but like eb said I haven't done anything to extremely help the humans either.

Afro what the hell. "This evidence seems pretty strong". It was a mystery PM from the "seer" who claims they saw me. Like I said before WHY WOULD THEY SEE ME? Especially on night 2? It makes no sense.

[flypie743]

Oh and LD claimed he talked to 3 people before the Day 2 started, well he couldn't have. The only thing I said to him about TWG before Day 2 started was a one line thing saying that I think he might be blue AFTER he pulled his little stunt about he didn't want to talk about TWG:

lightdarkness42: hay thar u
flypie PhD: sup
lightdarkness42: not much
lightdarkness42: what is up with YOU
flypie PhD: nm
flypie PhD: I don't know who to vote for in TWG
lightdarkness42: lets not talk about twg
flypie PhD: um ok..
lightdarkness42: lets talk about our lives

He has never just completely blown off TWG like that. He tried to cover it up with some personal issue bs and he never even bought up the thing that he claimed he IMed me for.

I SAID ONE LINE TO HIM BECAUSE HE WAS ACTING WEIRD AND HE CALLS ME A WOLF FOR IT.

This is such bs.

[lightdarkness]

I hardly call that BS personal issues... you should know that.

You can try and weasle out of this... but let me ask you this:

If it's so unlikely that you would be seer'd night 2, it's also soooooo unlikely someone would PM someone to try and get you lynched.

BS ALERTTTTTTTTTTTTT

[Afrobean]

Afro what the hell. "This evidence seems pretty strong". It was a mystery PM from the "seer" who claims they saw me. Like I said before WHY WOULD THEY SEE ME? Especially on night 2? It makes no sense.

I have absolute faith in eb's humanity. Just like you say you can tell things about LD, I can tell things about eb. And since I'm certain that eb is human, and that no one else has come to eb claiming to be the seer, I can assume that eb's PM is accurate.

I admit it doesn't make any sense that you would be seer'd, but that's kind of irrelevant. It is possible, just highly unlikely.

PS@ what LD said while I was typing this: LD is right. A wolf wouldn't go so far out of their way to fake a seer to lynch you. They'd more than likely go after a higher profile player.

[lightdarkness]

Flypie: That convo was legit, and you knwo it

[flypie743]

Flypie: That convo was legit, and you knwo it

No, it wasn't. YOU DIDN'T EVEN BRING UP THE THING YOU WERE TRYING TO GET ME TO TALK ABOUT. You just completely blew off TWG. Maybe if you would've said "oh I need to talk to you about ____ (you know who) it would've been more acceptable. But no, you don't explain to me why you blew it off until THE NEXT DAY. OF COURSE I HAD REASON TO FIND IT WEIRD- YOU DIDN'T EVEN EXPLAIN IT. So naturally I suspected you were acting differently.

[psychic25]

Well, this is interesting.

As for my thoughts about Flypie being seered,

When I was the seer in a jTWG, I was encouraged to build up an alliance before I started catching wolves. To build up an alliance, I seered people who had a low probability of being wolfed. After all, if an alliance member dies or the night's seering dies, that's a wasted seering. It makes sense to seer Flypie in order to build up an alliance- she has a very low probability of being wolfed.

So, with that...

I don't want to vote Flypie just yet. If the real seer didn't send that PM, I urge you to make another account (it would be legal, I presume) if you want to preserve your identity, and tell EB. EB, unless you get another PM, I will assume that Flypie is a wolf, and vote for her at the end of the day tomorrow.