TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

I want to clarify that in my plan back on page 1, when I mention a seer coming out, I'm talking about a seer's human front. A seer should only come out in Afro's scenario, where muliple wolves have been found and no human fronts are available.

I also want talk about what Talisman has said, now that it's getting attention. We can trust two seers as the genuine seers if we can get two human fronts in the thread, because a third, independent front would only spell death for a wolf the next day.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

I think you forgot that we have a wolf seer that can easily sway a lynch as well as a real seer.

Any wolf, not just the wolf seer, could theoretically sway a lynch. The powers of the wolf seer are essentially to find blues... which gives the wolf seer no extra advantage in terms of interaction with humans. A wolf seer can't be like "I can prove I'm a real seer, I saw X and they came back blue." because real seers only receive human or not human. A wolf seer could say "I saw X and they came back human" but so could any wolf. Kind of a small point, I know, but it warrants clarification.

About people coming out and your idea: it could work, but there's a fair amount of scenarios (that you've mentioned already) where it might not. I'd have to do math to figure out the odds, and I hate math. Instinctually, it seems to me like in this game that having two less people to choose from isn't that huge of an advantage on day one (two less people that the wolves have to choose from as well). If there's a seen red involved, then there's a significantly greater advantage to having the seen green sacrifice himself/herself.

[xObserveRx]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Alright, just for clarification, going back to a plan where both seers see the same person (which is what I'm thinking is maybe the best option at an early part of the game), how would a red miller situation (or blue if you wanna do that too. However a blue miller situation is much easier to see) play out in the immediate run?

Just curious to see if I'm the only person worried about this.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Nforcer I wasn't even talking about your agenda. Your ability to contribute new thoughts is very poor at best and after reading your long drawn out post, you restate so many obvious TWG basics that there are hardly any new thoughts at all.

I mean your own rant can be restated as "Have seer pawns come out instead of seers on day1 to make sure wolf seer doesn't pull a fake." Everything else I found as not worth reading.

I, for one, do not think that the wolf seer, a key member of the red team, will even attempt to publically reveal himself or do anything to stick his neck out in order to get into the trust of the thread. He risks the chance of being lynched if called on it and only gains minor trust from the thread since people will doubt any public figurehead coming out.

If the seer teams work by themselves, they will essentially be knocking out more players by just sheer luck. And your thought about the wolf team controling the lynch doesn't merit any risk. EVERY game the wolves can control the lynch and yet, they are always too afraid to try anything. So I doubt this game will be any different just because now they can confirm that they are a seer.

You also have to think about it from a seer's point of view: He can tell all greens in his party who he is seering and the reds that he has come up with. If the seer died, the alliance would still be together and the reds that were seered wouldn't be lost. Having someone come out and kill themselves (as a confirmed human) for a 60% chance of getting a wolf is not worth it. I would just have my pawns watch the lynch and vote to make sure the red targets get majority votes. You can't tell if they're actually a wolf or not anyways so having someone tell you that they were seered red still won't give the thread comfort in getting a wolf. They will still think that there could be 4 wolves out there. But by having this pawn come out we do know that we lost a seered human. That is not worth the risk.

I guess if I was a seer, I would actually use my ability right instead of relying on the crutch of the public thread to do my dirty work. But maybe that's just me.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

A wolf seer can't be like "I can prove I'm a real seer, I saw X and they came back blue." because real seers only receive human or not human.

Which is exactly how I trapped observer when he was a wolf seer XD.

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Another thing to consider while thinking seer strats through: would the wolves even attack a public (green) seer pawn should they come out? If they come out they're already going to bring a red name with them, so there's no possibility in stopping that. What else would the wolves gain? It seems to me that pegging the 2 seers in this game is their top priority. Why would they waste a kill on someone who's extremely likely to be green? I say extremely likely here because if a seer hits a "non-human" that "non-human" should tell them their role if they were blue, thusly the blue wouldn't be wise to come out as a public seer pawn. So in 99% of cases, the public seer pawn would be green. If I were a wolf I don't think I'd chose a 99% green as my target in a game with 2 seers. Just a thought.

[xObserveRx]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

After reading through the original game plan again, it seems to me that if you're a red miller and you get seered, it's basically your word vs. the alliance's. So in other words, you're screwed.

I do see the very small benefit this has for the humans (buys a night), but you gotta take into account the fact that you have double the chance of being seer'd by a human seer each night which would result in your demise.

So I guess the best bet for these people (who have no idea who they are), is to avoid being seer'd, which when following what's being planned (to seer people randomly each night), is null.

So you get seer'd as not human, and the humans lynch you, only aiding the wolves even more. The humans have just gotten a lose/lose situation. Combine this with the fact that blue millers (may) cause even more human confusion, getting seer'd as not human is well... bad.

Maybe I'm missing the big picture here. Maybe there's a way that this role really DOES benefit the humans for sure. I know there's the kamikaze role to help the humans much more than this role does. Does that really just turn this role into an unlucky role of the die?

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Hey iggy, nice "**** you" post you threw out there. I don't even think you understood the main part of my plan: to get the seers in contact. It's better to have one large human alliance than two little ones.

Your "OMG don't come out" post was an indirect response to my plan; any fool can see that. And I have poor new ideas? What was your idea, hmmm? "DURHURHUR let's shut up and do nothing" is not a good idea. The "basics" I used, as you put it, give the plan its validity. You're not going any deeper, so who the hell are you to say that?

And Stoic is right. Why kill a confirmed human when you can go for one of the two seers? That's another reason why my proposed idea will only be effective on Day 1. And if the wolves take down a confirmed human, so what? Better a confirmed human that got our seers together than one of the seers, right? The fact that you're missing all of this is rather appalling.

God I wish I could vote right now.

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

wait what night talking

sweet

red miller situation

Just curious to see if I'm the only person worried about this.

WHY HAS NOBODY ELSE EVEN MENTIONED THIS YET

I was thinking about this as I was reading the thread, and I'm assuming that the red millers basically just die when they're seered? There's no other way to go about it, really. Yes, it's a huge setback, and yes, it's annoying, but there's nothing really better to be done about it.

that would also explain why no one has mentioned it

anyway

Nforcer's plan is by far the best one posted - we just have to hope that we get two humans. The problem is that there is a very very good chance that that will not happen, and if it doesn't first night, there is a not-favourable chance one of our seers will get deaded. Also, if we only get one human, they will come out and probably be a really good wolf target because it will prevent the seer alliance from forming. Then again, is this plan worth repeating over more than one day?

Either way, for the potential benefit and no loss for attempt, let's do it.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Upon rereading and trying to understand what everyone is trying to propose as the best strategy I have come to the conclusion that everyone is saying different things.

IGGY: seers stay quiet in order build their alliance and push secretly for seered reds.

NFORCER and Stoic: Have both N1 pawns come forward to set up a bigger alliance to work together (thus keeping wolf seer away from being alliance head)

TALISMAN: same as above but only occurs when a red is seered (could happen at anytime)

I did not realize that that was the ultimate goal of this, I thought this was some dumb plan to sacriface someone for a red seering. Which I still think is dumb. But this other plan is a little more logical. (sorry for missing that)

There is a pretty much a 50-50 chance of a seer seering a green or blue. (4 greens + 2 blue millers that come up green + 2 blues / 15 possibilities: 53%) Which means about 20%-30% chance that both seers will find someone that they can both use to go through with this plan.

The most likely senario is that one seer will get green/blue and the other will get a red. Which means one seer comes out (via pawn) and that guy just gets mangled because no one else will step forward. And like someone else said wolf seer may try to get in if he wants to risk it. (But I doubt this will happen.)

Conclusion: Now that I've looked at what everyone has been saying, it is a better idea than what I was thinking it was but I still advocate hidden alliances because the only risk you run into is dumb pawns giving out info. You have to realize that if there's 1 overlap, the overlaped person will hook the two together. And damage control is maintained by not sharing the names of the seers.

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Conclusion: Now that I've looked at what everyone has been saying, it is a better idea than what I was thinking it was but I still advocate hidden alliances because the only risk you run into is dumb pawns giving out info. You have to realize that if there's 1 overlap, the overlaped person will hook the two together. And damage control is maintained by not sharing the names of the seers.

uh

nforcer's plan will probably either go for another attempt or break into hidden alliances if it fails N1 anyway

so i still don't see why you would advise something different considering that the risks are the exactly the same but there is great potential gain in nforcer's

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Haven't read everything yet (I think I'm on page 2 right now), but I just thought of this stuff and I want to say it before I forget.

My plan I said in my first post worked best with no millers, but still functioned well with 1 miller. With two millers, the seer could have a small chance of seering both millers and coming out, which would suck really bad (along with all the stupidity of the chance of a wolf faking or a legit coming out and no one trusting them). With two millers, I feel that the best course of action would be to go for hidden alliance and maybe sacrifice seer'd greens as figure heads to reveal as someone has been seer'd as red. What might be better though is to have seer'd greens simply push for the lynches of seer'd reds. This way, it won't totally reveal who has been seer'd and who hasn't and as long as the person who had been seer'd is good at coming up with logic to lynch someone, we can end up lynching seer'd reds.

And the idea I had just now: The two seers should try to seer the same person. I have no idea how this could be done exactly (if it's common knowlege who is being seer'd the wolves will just kill...), but if it could happen we'd have both seers working together from the beginning of day 1. Can anyone come up with something that could help the seers to seer the same person without revealing that one person to everyone? I feel like there's a way somehow, yet I can't think of anything.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Afrobean, my plan gets the two seers together, even if they seer two different people, provided they are both green. Go back and reread it.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

My death would easily have value equal to that of two wolves, maybe less.

That was my logic as well in my initial post, yet with two red millers, it's not really true. Two, one, or maybe no wolves is not worth losing a seer over... not in a game in which there is no master wolf.

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

InfernoBlueFlame: Was I right in assuming that if your plan fails N1 we're going to have another go or just go with two alliances?
nforcer06164: YEs.
nforcer06164: Because the risk increases exponentially each day.
nforcer06164: It's not worth it beyond day 1.
InfernoBlueFlame: Actually, another go second day is probably better
nforcer06164: But if we can get the seers in contact day 1...
InfernoBlueFlame: Then game won rofl
nforcer06164: Well, let's hear your take on it.
InfernoBlueFlame: If we shoot and miss first time, assuming both seers are still living for the next one, we will have eliminated 1-2 reds/red millers.
InfernoBlueFlame: Meanwhile, we will potentially have one guaranteed green in the alliance.
nforcer06164: See, here's the deal...
nforcer06164: If we have two humans...
nforcer06164: The seers can hook up by the end of the day
InfernoBlueFlame: I know that much.
nforcer06164: sup humans almost can't even lose.


[boring reptition of ideas in thread]

InfernoBlueFlame: That's the big problem of having seperate alliances if we nab a red or two - it will delay getting vital information out there.
InfernoBlueFlame: Meanwhile, the seers or allied greens could die.
nforcer06164: I think that's how things will have to go if two humans aren't seer'd
nforcer06164: This plan is very circumstantial
nforcer06164: But very beneficial if the circumstance is right.
InfernoBlueFlame: If we get one human, can't we just try for one more on day two?
InfernoBlueFlame: obviously we'd need the seer(s) who missed day one to do it
InfernoBlueFlame: But the plan could still work.
nforcer06164: It's risky, even I'm wary of that idea...
nforcer06164: But, it could still work
nforcer06164: I'm afraid of infiltration past Day 1
InfernoBlueFlame: The thing about this plan that irks me
InfernoBlueFlame: is that the reds will obviously buy into it
nforcer06164: What do you mean?
InfernoBlueFlame: Let's say only one green gets seered.
InfernoBlueFlame: They come out to the thread, but unfortunately, the other seer hit a red.
InfernoBlueFlame: What's to stop the red seer from dawdling around then poking their head in and saying "sorry for the delay sup i know you're green"
InfernoBlueFlame: Chances are slim of it happening because it would specifically require one seer to seer red and the red seer to seer a green
InfernoBlueFlame: But if it happens, we are in big trouble
nforcer06164: See, here's the deal with that.
nforcer06164: Any wolf can do that at any time.
InfernoBlueFlame: not really
nforcer06164: No?
InfernoBlueFlame: "HI I KNOW YOU'RE GREEN"
InfernoBlueFlame: "actually i'm seer"
InfernoBlueFlame: "uh"
InfernoBlueFlame: well they wouldn't say "i'm seer"
InfernoBlueFlame: they'd play it off and report it to their greenmate
nforcer06164: Right.
nforcer06164: Yeah, you're right.
InfernoBlueFlame: But the point still stands.
InfernoBlueFlame: Their situation is circumstancial, too... but there's even more in it for them.
nforcer06164: Hm, see, this is what I wanted.
nforcer06164: A substantial counterpoint.
nforcer06164: I knew there had to be something.
InfernoBlueFlame: i'm sure if we post that iggy will say "WELL YEAH THAT'S WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT"
InfernoBlueFlame: even if he just likes to make the plans
InfernoBlueFlame: I still say we give it a go though, but be on our guards about it
InfernoBlueFlame: We should encourage immediate responses on the seerings.
nforcer06164: Right.
InfernoBlueFlame: actually
nforcer06164: Baiting is hoping for too much.
nforcer06164: If that's what you were gonna say.
InfernoBlueFlame: Wasn't going to suggest it.
nforcer06164: Okay, go ahead then.
InfernoBlueFlame: Like I said, it's circumstancial and would only leave an opening.
InfernoBlueFlame: But anyway - we should make it so that at a certain time the thread meets up and shares seering results.
InfernoBlueFlame: That way the red seer can't twiddle his thumbs and notice an opening, then say "oh sorry for the delay ps ur green"
nforcer06164: Right, right.
nforcer06164: You mean like a time deadline?
InfernoBlueFlame: Bingo.
nforcer06164: Sounds good.
nforcer06164: Let's hear other input too
nforcer06164: Remember the day hasn't started yet.
InfernoBlueFlame: It'll dent the chances of everything working on our part but it will kill the chances of it working against us.
InfernoBlueFlame: Yep
InfernoBlueFlame: lol night talking
nforcer06164: It's amazing, no?

I don't even notice these things until I have someone to rant to about them.

yes i know more of that convo is important than not