TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Why is Wilkin bold and red in the players' list? And is cardflipping in this game?

We have no master wolf this game, and every seer pick comes up as 100% legit (except in the case of the Red Millers). Still, having red millers is better than having a master wolf, because EVERY seered human can be trusted. However, with a wolf seer. My strategy in this situation is to have each seer contact a seered human, and have them act as a front for that seer.

BOTH SEERS HAVE TO CONTACT THEIR RESPECTIVE HUMANS. If this happens, the wolf seer will not come out to any human. You know why? If a third human comes out in the thread saying "sup I was seer'd", than each seer can check each other the next night, and the wolf seer will be gone. So, I think our best move is for each seer to form an alliance with their respective humans right away. Who knows? We might get lucky and have a cross-check, allowing for an inflated alliance to form.

This game is a bit complex, and if a seer does get hit Night 1, infiltration is likely. I'd like to see any counterpoints to this idea before we go ahead with it. My biggest fear in this plan is if there isn't cardflipping; it's impossible to know if a seer has been hit. Still, the fact remains that the wolves wouldn't know either.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

only time anyone comes out on the thread to say something is if a red has been seered. and the person who comes out is a green that the seer has seered, not the seer themselves. this person would then be sacrificing themselves for the (initially) 60% chance of getting a wolf (3/5). this would all be assuming that the green trusted the seer as a genuine seer.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Why is Wilkin bold and red in the players' list? And is cardflipping in this game?

The only red bold text I see is 'NOT HUMAN' and 'RED' in all of their occurrences, and there is not cardflipping.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Sorry, that was my fault. I think I realized this thread had started because I searched for "Wilkin" with the forum search function. Somebody had commented on his custom title, but I couldn't find a post of his. That caused his name to be bold and red.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

only time anyone comes out on the thread to say something is if a red has been seered. and the person who comes out is a green that the seer has seered, not the seer themselves. this person would then be sacrificing themselves for the (initially) 60% chance of getting a wolf (3/5). this would all be assuming that the green trusted the seer as a genuine seer.

What I'm trying to weigh here is the advantage of guaranteed humans coming out vs. hidden alliance. Of course, if the seered humans do not come out, they are safer from getting wolfed. However, if they do not come out, we might make the mistake of lynching a guaranteed human. Furthermore, seered humans coming out gives us a smaller lynching pool.

Remember, the very reason I want to have two seered humans to come forward is to eliminate the possibility of a "fake seer" fooling a human and steering us the wrong way. If we can confirm the integrity of the two true seers, we cannot be fooled by the wolf seer. There are three impediments to this plan:

1. One or both seers sees a wolf
2. A seer is wolfed, thereby making it safe for the wolf seer to come out.
3. A wary seer or human does not follow the plan

Of course, there is a certain advantage in one of the "impediments" as well. Say both seers don't come out immediately. This is perfect bait for the wolf seer, who, thinking he's safe and fronts a random human because a second seer cannot come out for reasons previously stated. Then we'd end up with three seers, thereby making the next night cycle a roundabout seering that would inevitably remove the wolf seer.

Remember that the wolves are going to want to eliminate the seers as soon as possible, and therefore are going to attempt to hit blues rather than confirmed humans. Also, remember that if both humans come out in the thread, they can help the seers communicate and coordinate picks. If they can collaborate somehow to verify that both seers are legit, they can stay in contact to get the most out of their picks as possible. Remember that the wolves can only hit one person per night, so if the seers are in contact, the wolves have almost no advantage to hitting a confirmed human.

After the seers get in contact, seered humans can remain hidden unless they come under suspicion. One or two other confirmed humans can verify it and thus we remove suspects from the lynching pool, getting us ever closer to the wolves.

This plan will only work if it is implemented on DAY ONE. If it is utilized after that, the risk of infiltration is far too great. If we don't get a second seer, the plan should be null and we'll have to move forward without it. If anyone sees some sort of flaw in this plan, please vocalize it. Otherwise, I'd like some support in seeing this plan implemented; I believe it will give us the greatest chance of victory.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

why isn't all the convo about omg blah's playing?
I'm thinking of an absolute we win strat, you know how these things happen, just gimme my time

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Let me know what you think of my idea, blah; I'd really appreciate your input on this. And OH MY GOD BLAH'S BACK.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

http://home.comcast.net/~2332585928099/TWG_XLI_BUDDY_LIST.blt

Right click, save as. Load with aim by clicking

My Aim > Load Buddy List...

Or with the gay new version... you can't. Well, you can but it involves a plugin. If you're using the new version and you want to use my buddylist, IM me or something....

This won't overwrite your list at all, it'll just add a new category with everyone's aims in sign-up order. That is all.

Also worth noting, it has each players' forum name as contact comment, in case you get confused.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

You're a god, DBP. If it works, anyway.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Seers don't come out.

Pawns of seers don't come out.

If a seer finds a wolf, likely he would have found maybe 1 or 2 other humans that he can trust. Seers should just work within their group to get wolves lynched. It doesn't have to be this huge stage performance of a god arising from the night and saying, "We have wolf, let's skin him!!!" A covert plan should do fine. Having 3 votes to sway any place you want works just as well as announcing it to the thread and having your credibility challenged, then voting on whether or not you're true, then voting on your pick."

No seer should come out.

No seer pawns should come out.

Be sneaky for crying out loud. You can trust your green picks are humans so the only chance you take on revealing yourself to them is having your pawn reveal who you are without him knowing it.

@nforcer: stop sucking up to people XD. This is WAR!!

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

hay guys

With 2 seers and no guardian, the wolves are free to come out as a seer if they want. Both of the real seers would just have to go "oh he might be the other seer" and the only remedy to this would be both seers coming out which probably is a bad idea (and if the seer who came out first is legit, then the second one would come out to verify there isn't a "third" seer and even then both seers are as good as dead.

seers are stuck being unable to come out, but it may be an ok idea to sacrifice both seers if multiple wolves have been seer'd.

A portion) If someone comes out as a seer, I'm immediately pushing for their lynch because no seer should be so desparate to come out publically unless:

B portion) I can only see this if the seer's first two picks are red. Even then, IMO, I wouldn't chance it. I would take the chance of getting wolfed and try to get more people on my side then having them work with me on their votes to lynch the red picks behind the scenes style.

[JurseyRider734]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

You killed my aim.

Oh well.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

That being said, the seers need to adopt an unofficial way of making sure they don't overlap too much in their choices.

It seems like early on it might be more beneficial for the seers' choices to overlap.

BUT if you wanted to ensure that they didn't overlap, you could say "ok seers, seer the person immediately below you on the signup list. if you're last, seer number one."

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

iggy, did you not read the advantages of my plan? Yeah, staying secretive might be all well and good, but I think you forgot that we have a wolf seer that can easily sway a lynch as well as a real seer. Keeping seered humans secret only provides sanctuary for the wolf seer and makes his role much more powerful.

iggy, I was looking for counterpoints. You do realize that all you said is "lol we can get by without doing anything," right? You did not point out any problems with my plan, and if you can't, I'd say you're just trying to suffocate progress. I'm not saying my plan is flawless, but my god, substantiate yourself.

Oh, and what the hell is this, taking your chances getting wolfed and working behind the scenes to get lynches? Are you stupid? TAKING A CHANCE?! If I was a seer that had found two wolves, I wouldn't even think twice about revealing myself and my information. My death would easily have value equal to that of two wolves, maybe less.

You've secured spot #1 on suspicions.

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

only time anyone comes out on the thread to say something is if a red has been seered. and the person who comes out is a green that the seer has seered, not the seer themselves. this person would then be sacrificing themselves for the (initially) 60% chance of getting a wolf (3/5). this would all be assuming that the green trusted the seer as a genuine seer.

Gotta agree with talisman most so far here. We have a HUGE benefit in being able to trust our "human" seer picks 100%. I think our safest and best course of action is to have the seer-pawns come forward only when they have a red to go with them. Until then the seers are spending N1 and N2 hopefully hitting one red and one green, or two reds.

Best to watch that tone Iggy, I'm wanting to agree with nforcer here.