TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

jurs, we're doing a timeframe thing to prevent that from happening. If a wolf sends a human claiming "I was seered" into the thread, how can he/she know that the real seers didn't both get humans? Way too risky for the wolves, especially with two kamikazes in the game that can easily get a wolf killed during the night.

I say no. I gave you your "counterpoints" and your plan only has a 20-30% chance of working today. The likely senario strings a confirmed human out to dry.

Having the seers work hiddenly has just as many benefits as your plan does except the the seer alliances have to be more discreet in their lynching methods. And 3 days later there may be an overlap and then the alliances will be brought together without anyone being needlessly sacrifaced.

Besides, I'm surprised that you're advocating a human alliance anyways nforcer, you usually want the game to be played through the people and not an alliance where everything is decided for you.

I'm ignoring you because you're the only one that doesn't think it's a good idea to get the seers in contact, and you haven't mention any advantage to the seer picks being hidden. All I got from you was a roundabout way of saying, "But it's better." Oh, and I advocate the best way to win. I'm sorry you're not thinking like today.

My vote on iggy, afro, is because he's disagreeing with a very productive plan if it works right. If it doesn't work, we only lose a confirmed human at worst, who may very well be a kamikaze. Remember, the seer only sees if someone is "human" or "not human" =)

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

I'm not against the seers getting in contact. You assume that the only way they can contact each other is by your plan which has so many chances of going wrong that even if it did work, in practical purposes, maybe people won't believe it anyways.

I like the seers working by themselves because chances are they will seer the same green report at some point and will combine themselves on their own without having to go through the politics of credibility that your plan has.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Yeah, so eventually the seers will hit the same person. What, on Day 4? 5? And the wolves have less of a chance of hitting one seer that the seers choosing the same human, huh? There's a far lesser chance of the seers randomly getting in contact than by actually making some effort towards it. If this plan fails today, as I said, the risk grows and the plan should be void (unless we decide otherwise; I'm wary of going beyond Day 1 myself). Honestly, what is your aversion to effort this game? Why can't we at least try something that is incredibly helpful instead of sitting back and letting the alliance work on its own, with less of a chance of favorable result? Stop being so bullheaded.

Also, as we've been discussing the advantages of the wolves actually killing the confirmed humans instead of stabbing randomly. The funny thing here is, any "confirmed human" that comes out as a seer pick might actually be a kamikaze, because the seer cannot distinguish between blues and non-blues. So, the wolves are essentially stabbing in the dark for the entire game. Confirmed humans coming out in the thread means absolutely nothing except having what I would call "trust status".

And in case it wasn't clear from what I just mentioned...

IF YOU ARE A KAMIKAZE, DO NOT REVEAL YOUR STATUS TO ANYBODY.

If we decide to go ahead and have seered humans come out, you can state that you are human, but do not tell anyone you are a kamikaze. You'll get destroyed by the wolf vigilantes, and we'll lose a valuable role.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Honestly, what is your aversion to effort this game? Why can't we at least try something that is incredibly helpful instead of sitting back and letting the alliance work on its own, with less of a chance of favorable result? Stop being so bullheaded.

1st bolded) Your plan is subjectively helpful since if it goes wrong it goes wrong in a big way. I don't think you're seeing this either. Your plan only works if both seers saw a green report last night. Yes it's a chance but the risk of it is one pawn comes out and no one else contests him and that guy dies and the seers still don't know who's who. THAT's the risk that I'm against.

Yes maybe the seers won't overlap until day4,5. But that would mean that 10-12 players will be identified which means the wolf count will be lower anyways. If the seers don't find each other, that means that there's no overlap and therefore less and less unknowns are out there. (Granted one group may push for the unknown lynch of someone who is known in the other group. But each group may save seer'd greens especially if the vote is close and an unknown player is on the chopping block.)

2nd bolded) If the seers don't find each other according to your plan, people will be wolfed without any good reason and seer picks will never grow. If the seers don't find each other according to my plan, the overall lynch pool still shrinks and convert action needs to be taken to save your alliance.

If the two seers find themselves today, you garantee no overlap for the rest of the game and the lynch pool knowlingly shrinks and people know stuff is happening. If the seers eventually find each other in my plan you have maybe 1 or 2 players overlapped (because maybe they both seered the same red in addition to the green that links them together) and everything is done without the wolves ever knowing it happened.

I still say hidden is the way to go. It's more of an active role for the seers themselves but it doesn't throw out 1 or 2 confirmed greens to the wolves.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

sending seered humans out is dumb, you can't form an alliance and that's way more important then having a voice to keep all you people from thinking... man up and let's talk this through though... I want to hear from everyone, but my statement for you all to interpret as you wish is that sending out a confirmed human as a sacrifice is stupid because the wolves will take the bait correctly everytime... ESpECIALLY after its already been mentioned in this thread to do so

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

I wouldn't mind a tentative/best case game plan, say, a pawn comes only after they have 2 red names to bring with them. Over the course of 3-4 days (hopefully) this sacrifices 2 , possibly kamikaze, greens for 4 red names (out of 2 millers and 4 wolves). We lose 2 "humans" but we still have 2 living seers to peg the last two. Suggestions and or complaints?

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

See, the throwing out the "sacrifice" is exactly the reason why I don't want to try this beyond Day 1.

Scenario 1: We have two confirmed humans. The seers have contact, can work together, and form a huge alliance. Huge gain in chance of human victory.

Scenario 2: The danger iggy warns about. One human comes forward, and is dead meat for the wolves. Surprise, the wolves are going to kill a human anyway. That does not change the fact that that human may be a kamikaze, and remember, seer picks occur after wolf picks during the night; the seer may never get a report if a human is killed. If we only get one human, the plan goes null and we work with two human alliances behind-the-scenes.

Scenario 3: No humans come forward. We lose nothing, and we potentially have nabbed two wolves.

Honestly, the only disadvantage I see is losing one confirmed human, which we're going to have tons of in the following days. And, who's to say that confirmed human isn't a kamikaze?

I still say we go for it. Note that I don't advocate this plan after Day 1. If this doesn't work today, we'll have to let alliances work on their own, as separate camps.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

wow nforcer

You're bending logic to your whim. Yes, wolves are stabbing in the dark every night and yes they will definitely kill a human every night. However, you make it sound as though they're only having a chance of killing a kamikaze if they kill a seer's green puppet. A wolf has no greater chance to kill a kamikaze than anything else, EXCEPT if they seer a blue and decide to attack that blue.

And, who's to say that confirmed human isn't a kamikaze?

The chance of any player seer'd green to be the kamikaze is the same chance that any random human killed is a kamikaze.

Actually, it would be 2/10 or 1/5 for the wolf kill, due to there having been another lynch (assuming human because... well duh, it's statistically most likely to happen). And 2/9 for the seer's (next night, that is... last night was 2/10 or 1/5), because the seer wouldn't seer themself.

Can someone who is especially good with statistics run the probability of each scenario nforcer just listed as well. I'd do it, but I'm afraid I was never the best at stats and I don't remember a lot of the rules.

oh ps

Scenario 3: No humans come forward. We lose nothing, and we potentially have nabbed two wolves.

I know enough statistics to know that even if both seers see a "red" the probability of them both ACTUALLY being red is 36%.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Somewhere back in this thread the chances of seering a green human is 53%. So the chances of both of the seers finding a green is between 25-30%. (Which I stated before)

Chances of finding a red is 40% so the chances of both seers getting a red is lower than finding two greens. (But maybe by only 10-15%)

The other 50% of the time or so you've got a split between finding a red and green.

Honestly, the only disadvantage I see is losing one confirmed human, which we're going to have tons of in the following days.

And the only disadvantage to staying quiet is that you have 1 (MAYBE 2) overlapped seer results.

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

rofl@fojar

it's a safety vote. i'm gonna be active, but probably not when all the voting happens, i'll be at my fiance's, so i wanted a backup just in case.

you seem really human to me, so i'll probably change it but i dont know who to yet.

[xObserveRx]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

On second thought, Iggy's plan does seem like it's rather credible.

Looking from the wolves' perspective, they're most likely relying on their seer's pick for the night for kills. If they see a green, they're most likely hitting that person. It would only make sense. And if they're hitting what their seer sees as green, it's either a human, or a red miller.

So let's say that our seers don't find some common ground till night 3 or 4 or 5 even, they'll both at least have notes to compare with each other, to get an alliance together.

The only snag in this plan is if the wolves do decide to get risky, which seems rather dangerous from a day 3 on perspective (assuming a wolf has already been lynched by day 3.) If they're hitting blues regardless of the risk, by day 4 or 5 one, or both, of our seers could be gone; possibly without ever having found some common ground. That'd suck a lot.

But overall, this plan is clearly the safer play. I'm all for taking risks that could lead to big pay-offs, but Iggy's plan is pretty solid, I gotta admit that I'm thinking it really may bet the better play here.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

The only snag in this plan is if the wolves do decide to get risky, which seems rather dangerous from a day 3 on perspective (assuming a wolf has already been lynched by day 3.) If they're hitting blues regardless of the risk, by day 4 or 5 one, or both, of our seers could be gone; possibly without ever having found some common ground. That'd suck a lot.

If they hit blues then public alliance or not there's really no difference... we would still be getting screwed.

I dare the wolves to try to fake a hidden seer alliance strategy. That would be so funny because not only would they get slaughtered but they would be doing a lot of dirty work for us too. I would explain how this would happen, but I'd rather see tham try it and fail rather than telling them exactly how badly faking would be.

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

I, too, see Iggy's point, as well as blah's. I usually love taking chances, but not in a Werewolf Game.
Last time I took a chance was when I was the seer (but, in a twist, I could only use my power up to two or three times) in Kilga's Galaxy Angel game, and I thought to myself, "You know, with only a few chances to use my power, my alliance-buidling is limited. Oh, I know! I'll just contact someone in the game right away with a seer check, on Night 1, and tell them I'm the seer if I think they're behaving okay! Then I'll already have an alliance going!" My logic was that I had a better chance of revealing myself to a human than a wolf, which was true, but then evilbutterfly ended up being a Wolf. ;_;

Anyways, I myself would prefer hidden alliances over all this mumbo jumbo. I mean, jeez, aside from the chances of something going awry, it's also more interesting when the game has more challenge to it. When nforcer's plan would remove a lot of.
Er, not that I'm against beneficial plans or anything. But, you know...

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

*without a seer check

[rioting]

Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

Damn I missed a lot. I just skimmed through the thread; I'm going to think about it, reread some parts and get some posts in now that I have time this weekend.

Quick 2cents: Right now I think a hidden alliance is smarter than a public one, because obviously anything posted in the thread can be read by the wolves too. Seers should stay anonymous, kamikaze too.