TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Also, I didn't understand a damn thing you said, iggy. "then it evens out if the wolves bandwagoned LD, then we would just return with going for EB." Care to explain what the hell that means? And you're surprised that one of the guys with two phantoms didn't die?! If they're both human, they're sitting ducks for the end of the game! ANY wolf would want them alive.

They BOTH aren't sitting ducks.

If there was one person with two phantoms then we have the situation where if wolves = humans then wolves would win because all the wolves would vote the guy with two phantoms without the humans being able to do anything. (That is why I expected one of the two to go. Collecting phantoms says something about your humanity [normally] and I don't see the wolves leaving them both and going for a different human, thus narrowing the wolf list down.)

However since there are two people with two phantoms then if wolves = humans then if the wolves all voted for one of them, then the humans could come back and put their votes on the other guy.

This would put the wolves in a bad situation if either EB or LD was a wolf because it would essentially be a KitB for the win. That's why I said that one had to be a wolf as I didn't see a reason for keeping them both. (Unless they plan on getting rid of one of them the night before wolves = humans.)

Of course after thinking it over some, even if they were both humans, then the wolves would probably wait until the night before wolves = humans to kill one of them. That was something I didn't consider either, since if they killed LD or EB last night, then we would just counter it with killing the other one the next day.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

In short yes, now I believe that they both could be human.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

I gotcha, iggy, I gotcha.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

hmm have some thoughts on resurrection but got to go to class. will put them in after lunch.

[evilbutterfly]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Oh **** guys sorry, I keep forgetting I'm playing. See, when I visit FFR, I go straight to GVG. I pretty much don't leave GVG like, ever. I bet if you did a search for all my posts, almost all the recent ones are in the MS thread. And yeah, Chris and I both have been playing MS a ton lately. I gotta catch up to him before he levels, RAWR! Also, I moved out of my dorm and am back at my house (that took time) and I had finals and I've been hanging out with Jenna a ton.

But mainly, I'm just not used to being in TWG anymore, so I forget to check the thread. And the fcking wireless here sucks so much balls that I can't stay online for more than a few seconds at a time, it seems, so I can't stay on AIM. D:<

BUT ANYWHO, to clarify why I only attacked people Day 1 and didn't offer any suggestions is this: the only suggestion I could think of was useless since everybody and their brother came out. What should have happened: Kefit and Kefit only comes out (Saulus or whatever, I get them backwards), then the other res roles and blues come to him. That way you still narrow down the numbers for the humans, but the wolves are still in the dark. As it is, it's narrowed down for both sides, which is reeeeeeeeeally stupid. You should have all discussed the coming out (or not coming out) A LOT before jumping in and do it. A degree of hesitation is very worth your time, especially in big irreversible moves like this.

As for the guardian resurrecting people, I don't think it's a good idea. 1/3 chance is horrible, and the wolves could easily off the guardian. Also, do the wolves still get a kill when that happens, or do they just try to stop the res? Cuz if they get a kill on top of that, then they'd just go for Kefit and screw up the alliance while possibly killing the guardian as well that night. BAM half the alliance is gone and there's nobody but a suspicious person (Judas) to be the headman, then they might get wolfed and tell the wolves the blues.

AND TO PREVENT ANYMORE PHANTOMS, talisman for the save. Why talis? Cuz he's always human, even as a wolf, so he prolly won't get lynched.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

I forgot to do a numbering system last time i did this, so I'm doing it now with updadted info since I last posted.

#1 - LD - totally inactive, probably a wolf
#2 - eb - wolf, i've explained my ideas on eb; his criticism of our ideas without any input on things, sitting on a pedistool of such wolfy greatness
#3 - afrobean - no real new info on afro,
#4 - minineo - probably human (hopefully), as if he was a wolf his buddies wouldn't let him jump on my ideas so quickly and blindly.
#5 - ddrdanc3r55 - same reason as neo
#6- GuidoHunter - guido's defenses seem to be genuine, but i've still got my doubts.
#7 - talisman - no new info on talis
#8 - kilga - no new info on kilga

Chances are, Tass was a wolf, and was for the most part the mind behind the kills. This new kill of tps really didn't make any sense to me (as tps is usually lynched right about today), but talis's explanation seems to be on the mark (which could be him explaining his own wolf kill). The problem is, I can't really see anyone left doing that. I've got to get back to new yorking, but I'll think about it and post later tonight.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

so my thoughts on resurrection. At this point there are 9 people left who aren't special and revealed and aren't dead. There are either 2 or 3 wolves left. So the wolves chances of hitting the guardian tonight are either 1/7 or 1/6. If the guardian choses to resurrect, of course, there's a 1/3 chance the wolves will get the guardian, which is about twice as good.

Now, tomorrow night, there will be either one or two more people dead, depending on guardings and whatnot during the night. that enhances the wolves chances to 1/4, 1/5, or 1/6, while guardian's chances of dying during resurrection are either still 1/3 (if there is a guarding tonight) or 1/4. I think that night, therefore, would be the best time to try a resurrection, although of course other factors might come into play (how at risk the guardian feels he is, etc).

And a resurrection by itself wouldn't add a day, but given that a guarding of some kind is bound to happen (after all, eventually when there's only one wolf left wilkin is going to get attacked to up their numbers) and that would then add another day. Plus of course, a resurrected person would be an invaluable addition to the alliance assuming that kefit is probably somewhat vulnerable.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

rofl @ no reasoning for LD. It's the leaving a phantom'd wolf alive (if eb is human) along with the phantom'd human.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

A successful resurrection effectively cancels out the wolfing of the night. In other words, we set the wolves back by half a day.

Lynching me pushed the wolves back half a day, which was enough to knock their EoG back a full day. An additional half day knock back for them would not push their EoG day back anymore.

Thus, a resurrection really isn't a good idea, especially with the risks involved if it fails. It might be worth considering if the wolves manage to bring Judas to their side, and in doing so gain half a day (moving their EoG back to where it originally was), but until then we shouldn't think about it much.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

As for the guardian resurrecting people, I don't think it's a good idea. 1/3 chance is horrible, and the wolves could easily off the guardian. Also, do the wolves still get a kill when that happens, or do they just try to stop the res? Cuz if they get a kill on top of that, then they'd just go for Kefit and screw up the alliance while possibly killing the guardian as well that night. BAM half the alliance is gone and there's nobody but a suspicious person (Judas) to be the headman, then they might get wolfed and tell the wolves the blues.

AND TO PREVENT ANYMORE PHANTOMS, talisman for the save. Why talis? Cuz he's always human, even as a wolf, so he prolly won't get lynched.

Umm hello? I would be a way better choice for taking over the alliance than wilkin.

Plus half the alliance isn't gone as there are three confirmed humans plus the seer still in it. :/

Course that too was discussed day 1 XD. So I won't get into that again but yea, kefit dies = me taking his place (If needed, I'm sure the alliance could run itself without a head man by now.)

Big strikeout there...

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

A successful resurrection effectively cancels out the wolfing of the night. In other words, we set the wolves back by half a day.

Lynching me pushed the wolves back half a day, which was enough to knock their EoG back a full day. An additional half day knock back for them would not push their EoG day back anymore.

Thus, a resurrection really isn't a good idea, especially with the risks involved if itfails. It might be worth considering if the wolves manage to bring Judas to their side, and in doing so gain half a day (moving their EoG back to where it originally was), but until then we shouldn't think about it much.

Just as an FYI, you won't know wilkin had switched. Even if there is a guard, you won't know if it was the guardian's pick, myself, or wilkin.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

I was also thinking that the humans are in an awesome position with EB and LD with their phantoms.

You see, in order for the wolves to take advantage of either LD's or EB's phantoms, they would have to kill one of them first. lol I find this hilariously funny for some odd reason. These phantoms actually are helping us a lot this game, maybe that's why.

[evilbutterfly]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Personally, I'd rather lynch myself than let you take over as head of the alliance. Wilkin is way more qualified, in more ways than one.

Oh and btw, thinking LD or I is a wolf because we're inactive is fcking stupid. LD is always inactive, and I didn't want to play this game. Besides that, haven't you people ALWAYS said that inactivity != wolfiness? Where the hell did that ever go? Yeah, there was that one game I was a wolf and was really inactive and won because it wasn't characteristic, blah blah blah. You can ask anybody who was on my wolf team that game, I was just as inactive on the wolf side, too. I think it was Tass, so I lucked out, cuz I could just keep playing MS while he sent in kills. He even had told me who to kill in case he died and I just stuck to his plan and barely paid attention to things. I wasn't inactive as a wolf strategy, it just happened to work out in my favor while I laid back and played MS.

Speaking of MS, 2x exp event starts at 12 today and ends at midnight, so I prolly won't make another post after this one today. XD

Oh, and criticism of ideas is bad? Or is it because I haven't added anything? Maybe because I don't have anything to add, eh? This seems like a very blue-run game, and it seems like most people are sitting around waiting for the alliance to tell them what to do. Games like this are why me and Afro were all like "omg all green game!!" so much, cuz people get reliant. I mean really, I have no sense about people and I'm barely paying attention, what the hell am I supposed to contribute? The least I can do is criticize what's already being done foolishly by other people. It's about the only way I can help out, and I'm a wolf because of it? Frankly, I find it sad that you people who care so much and are so active didn't think things through and rushed into things stupidly.

Seriously, sometimes you people just anger me with the way you play this game. >___<

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

eb, you're not even thinking. Iggy is more than qualified to take over an alliance if it becomes necessary, but besides that it's dumb to have wilkin do it because wilkin could be killed and then reveal crucial info to the wolves!

Innactivity in itself is not what incriminates you and LD; it's the phantoms. It has already been explained why two double-phantomers is not good for the wolves (it's better for them to only have one), which could mean that one of the double phantomers is a wolf. Not hard logic to follow, and you getting all huff puff before you even think about things doesn't help your case.

The only way this wouldn't be the case is if the wolves didn't realize this fact, or that they thought killing tps was a much higher priority (which I really don't see, unless they were blue hunting).

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

FFS, people. An inn is a hotel-like place, not a negative prefix. In-, however, is. Unless, of course, "nactivity" is a new noun or something.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com