TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Well, Hans, eb, and Iggy haven't posted yet.

I've been talking with Iggy, so at least I have some word from him.

I'm assuming eb is all "OMG MS" or whatever he does, plus that fact that Blah was just asking him to join for the Hell of it.

Hans has talked about the game minimally, spending a lot of time playing poker today, but still viewing the thread. Pregame he made a point of being pissed off about being a human for the umpteenth time, so I'd feel pretty dumb if I fell for that while he's really the Vamp or something. I'm not accusing him or anything, just throwing some stuff out into the open.

If anyone has had more contact with them, then feel free to talk about it or make sure that they post some. Inactivity could kill us this game, especially with all these unknowns.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Tass, it matters how much people believe that I am really the Saulus. If people can be confident that I am who I say I am, then lynching me early allows the humans to get a confirmed human to build an alliance around. Of course, if this it the case then Wilken is also a confirmed human, but he obviously can't be trusted with blue role info.

If you guys don't trust that I am who I say I am (and I don't particularly blame you, as I don't have anything completely concrete to offer right now, other than saying it would be idiotic for the real Saulus to not say anything now if I was a fake), then keeping my alive won't be a detriment to you guys. However, you have to be sure to lynch me at some point before EoG.

Furthermore, lynching me now moves EoG back a day for the wolves, so it isn't really wasting a lynch. If anything, it gives you guys more time to sniff out the wolves before making a real lynch, which is a good thing.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

kefit you should mark where you're editing stuff, if you're going to edit so much.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Um.. he shouldn't be editing ANYTHING... as per TWG rules. I know I edited a post above, but I typed the wrong number and made sure to edit it saying that was exactly my change to it.

Kefit... you make a good point. I just have always been opposed to lynching a confirmed non-wolf. And, assuming your logic/math is correct (which I don't see otherwise), I'm even happier that I suggested this course of action.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Ok so from the thread so far:

Wilkin = Judas (green)
Kefit = Saulus (red)

Really what happens now?? Tass' worse case senario has come true and the wolves could potentially have 5 votes for a victory.

If Judas (wilkin) dies tonight then yea he still lives and a guard shows but there's no reason for him to say "Hey I got hit last night." Because he is now on the wolf team. Plus we wouldn't know if he got hit, the guardian guarded someone, or the vamp got hit.

I think since this idea that judas should come out was a HUGE mistake wilkin. Yes we know who you are but there is no one to protect you from the wolves. And no reason for you to tell the thread that you got hit by them since that would be suicide. (Plus you now add one to wolf votes since a wolf could contact you and that cuts our victory back.) If the guardian guards you then there's a risk of seer getting killed. (Which the wolves can pick from 1/10 people and get the seer. 3 wolves + nforcer + kefit + wilkin + 10 = 16 players) Now if the thread finds that a guard took place and the wolves picked wilkin there is a small chance that wilkin will be contacted by the wolves. The only factor stopping this would be if the guardian guarded wilkin.

Now this being said leads me to Saulus (kefit). I guess I can see why revealing himself is good but when you look at it. Where do we go from here? The seer and guardian have to wait until saulus is human before revealing themselves to him, in case kefit decides to play as a wolf until he becomes a human. (unlikely since he can't do it via a fake account or anything.) But still a possibility as long as he is a wolf. He will be fed seer data, if the seer ever finds a wolf kefit could just go to that person and say, "Hey seer said you were a wolf so I'm going to work for you and lynch humans." This is all under the assumption we wait to kill kefit btw.

So in short here's what I see:
1) If kefit leads an alliance then don't expect any seered wolves to die until kefit is human.
2) If wilkin should ever die, there is a HUGE chance that a wolf would contact him and, for all intents and purposes, a wolf is born with little risk of ever dying since everyone will think wilkin is a confirmed human.
3) The person who suggested Judas coming out is my biggest suspect for a wolf..... TASS.

Yes the humans now know of two people who aren't wolves but the wolves have a lot to work with to make your "worse case senario" of 5 reds become a bigger reality. Your pros for your reasoning are horrible. They are possibilities for humans and are more advantageous for wolves than humans.

Since these ideas were discussed with fish, LD, and hans also (As you mentioned) those guys are also suspicious too. I'm surprised no one said that it wouldn't work. Course with your "excellent reasoning skills" I'm sure you just persuaded them otherwise because they are dumb people.

I'd like to see that log posted on the thread to see exactly how that idea come about.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Tass arguing that kefit shouldn't be killed now doesn't help his case either IMO.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

My only concern (similar to what Kefit himself voiced) is that somehow Wilkin and Kefit got together and switched who they are. Then we lynch Kefit and he turns into a wolf-supported (and Wilkin already is one), then the blues tell Kefit who they are, and he goes and posts it in the thread with a big "LOL!!!1!".

The only way I see that as having happened is if Wilkin thought of it ahead of time as Saulus, POSTED that he was Judas w/o contacting anyone, then Kefit went and contacted Wilkin over AIM before posting to find out why he was faking his role. Wilkin then fills Kefit in on the plan, and he grins with anticipation at its beauty and comes out as Saulus and pushes to get himself lynched.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

so like... here's a thought.

we kill kefit.
we wait and see what the night brings.
if there's a "guard", we wait while...
...the guardian tells kefit, who is now human (hopefully kefit is telling the truth, I kinda doubt he isn't, but it's possible I suppose) whether or not he guarded wilkin.
......if no, we lynch wilkin
............if wilkin comes back, we go "oh ****" and lynch him again


or something like that.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

That is a possibility, Tass, although rather unlikely.

About the only thing I have to defend against it is that my gargantuan posts came after Wilken made his announcement. If he was faking my role, then I would have spent my time finding out why rather than reasoning through all of that stuff.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

a:
iggy911mc: well i called you out my man
iggy911mc: your mentioning that judas coming out was a good idea when you reasons are iffy but good for wolves and you are throwing doubt to getting kefot killed WHILE HES A WOLF
TasselFoot: dude... your post is so full of holes, it makes swiss cheese look whole.
TasselFoot: i feel like you completely ignored the entire thread
TasselFoot: because your logic is ****ing terrible
TasselFoot: i honestly am in the middle of studying for a final at 10am tomorrow, or i would absolutely rip your post apart
iggy911mc: fine but you wanted judas to come out and there was no reason that would be good for the humans
TasselFoot: no. i wanted BOTH to come out. both did come out.
TasselFoot: i never put favor to one over the other. it had to be both that came out or it didn't work
TasselFoot: and both HAVE come out
iggy911mc: still having just saulus would have been better
TasselFoot: judas is the one who is human NOW, y'know.
TasselFoot: under my logic, neither judas or saulus would be lynched or wolfed.
iggy911mc: no reason to include judas
iggy911mc: yea and by revealing himself makes him a target for wolves
iggy911mc: making him a wolf
TasselFoot: he does not become a wolf you stupid ****
iggy911mc: AND a chance for a real wolf to go to him and have him work with the wolves
TasselFoot: he still is human. he just wins if the wolves win.
iggy911mc: fine hes not a wolf but still works with them
TasselFoot: only if the wolves contact him. which is a big IF.
TasselFoot: what is to say that my 2nd post is not true?
TasselFoot: that the roles are reversed and they're lying.
iggy911mc: the only reason that the wolves WOULDNT is if they thought the guardian guarded him
TasselFoot: that too
TasselFoot: my assumption is that the wolves wouldn't wolf judas because it is a waste of a wolfing on someone who is not blue and someone who won't die
TasselFoot: the wolves want people to die
iggy911mc: yea but if they go for judas and it fails, there is a HUGE chance that wilkin os on the red team
TasselFoot: the same way the humans wouldn't lynch saulus. it is wolfing someone who isn't a wolf. although it DOES delay the game, which i didn't think of.
TasselFoot: so that is a good reason to do it.
iggy911mc: yea because then a wolf could go to wilkin and say you were hit work with us now
TasselFoot: my entire plan had and still has ZERO downside. stop being a moron, re-read the thread to understand, and please leave me alone to study.



b; iggy asked me to post the convo I had with fish:
private with fish:
TasselFoot: i don't think your ideas are well thought out
insanelikeafish: just about to IM you
insanelikeafish: you have a better alliance idea?
TasselFoot: you're coming up with the usual strats from previous games
insanelikeafish: i already said saulus coming out was bad, i addressed that in my post
TasselFoot: i'm not so sure an alliance works well with this game. it may wind up hurting us more than helping.
insanelikeafish: i was just recaping what i had talked out with iggy
insanelikeafish: it may
insanelikeafish: although until the vamp is killed
insanelikeafish: it does a lot more good than it hurts
insanelikeafish: as long as the seer is careful
TasselFoot: unless saulus is seer'd and brought in...
TasselFoot: or even judas.
TasselFoot: there are 3 people who can royally **** an alliance
insanelikeafish: brought in, and then what
insanelikeafish: what can someone do without any info
TasselFoot: trust
TasselFoot: infuence
insanelikeafish: i was in the alliance last game, you talked to iggy the whole time, did he ever trust me?
TasselFoot: no. but that was just you.
TasselFoot: he trusted wilkin and talisman
insanelikeafish: and for good reason
TasselFoot: ok. but can we trust that the seer will be as good as iggy was last game?
TasselFoot: or trust that whoever can't be trusted ****s things up as well as you did?
insanelikeafish: no, we can't, but we can then ridicule him to no end in the post game if he screws up
TasselFoot: that doesn't work for me.
insanelikeafish: i just think it's a good strat, the typical seer one
insanelikeafish: it's just weaker than usual
TasselFoot: sure. it is a time tested strat. it works. but every game the host is making it work less and less.
insanelikeafish: the only thing i was thinking of, is because of the multiple marks
insanelikeafish: it might be counter productive to ALWAYS lynch a seered wolf, not that there's any real way to tell one way or another
insanelikeafish: if the wolves are smart they'll wolf mid to low tier players while framing good seer picks
TasselFoot: 25% shot that the seer'd wolf is not in fact a wolf.
TasselFoot: moreso as the game progresses
insanelikeafish: right
insanelikeafish: so instead of alliance leader says wolf bandwagon
TasselFoot: y'know something?
insanelikeafish: we might be better using the seer's report as a possible guideline
TasselFoot: i have an idea
insanelikeafish: like if someone is being super suspicious AND they were seered a wolf, they probably should get the axe
TasselFoot: if the seer sees a wolf... they seer the same person again the next night. it wouldn't be 100%, and it would waste a seering... but chances are, it would be conclusive.
insanelikeafish: hey that's not a bad idea
insanelikeafish: don't post that rofl
TasselFoot: of course not
TasselFoot: defeats the purpose
insanelikeafish: also i hesitated to post this:
insanelikeafish: there are going to be more people acting like tps this game than every before
insanelikeafish: as if they want to be lynched
insanelikeafish: because they really don't care
TasselFoot: i see no reason not to post that.
TasselFoot: it is true and it should be obvious
insanelikeafish: well once that's out there
insanelikeafish: then behavior will be modified
TasselFoot: *shrugs* i hope everyone already realized that
insanelikeafish: i'm going to watch for a last-game-guido style
insanelikeafish: fairly active, helpful, green looking - that'll give us our RR's
TasselFoot: depends.
insanelikeafish: well of course
TasselFoot: who says that the RRs want to get themselves lynched
TasselFoot: maybe they will work with their current state.
TasselFoot: and only if they get killed through means out of their control, they switch to the other team
insanelikeafish: right
insanelikeafish: but i can tell you right now if i was an RR, i'd find a way to get myself killed
TasselFoot: why
insanelikeafish: either by looking super human and getting wolfed or looking super wolfy and getting lynched
insanelikeafish: because it's eventual
insanelikeafish: the chances of staying alive are a lot slimmer
insanelikeafish: than dying
insanelikeafish: as i said
insanelikeafish: if i was saulus, i would come out
insanelikeafish: then let whoever do what they wanted
insanelikeafish: because i know i'd have a better shot, even if people doubted my word, on the human team
insanelikeafish: since i wouldn't have any way to contact the wolves
TasselFoot: well, i do agree. saulus has no risk in coming out.
TasselFoot: except in that if he gets lynched, he'll be targeted for wolfing right after, and then be dead dead.
TasselFoot: but frankly, i'm against lynching saulus if he comes out. it is a guarenteed non-wolf.
TasselFoot: also... nforcer wasn't a wolf and wasn't a ress role.
TasselFoot: that leaves a 20% chance he was the seer or guardian.
TasselFoot: that also means there are 9 "humans" left.
insanelikeafish: sorry had to run downstairs
insanelikeafish: yeah
insanelikeafish: as long as saulus is in his first stage he can't be trusted, but he can't exactly do anything
TasselFoot: right
TasselFoot: his coming out helps everyone, actually.
TasselFoot: it helps himself for obvious reasons
TasselFoot: helps the wolves as they know someone not to attack
TasselFoot: and helps the humans as they know someone not to attack
insanelikeafish: maybe we shoudl call for judas and saulus to come out
insanelikeafish: i mean
insanelikeafish: even if judas died
insanelikeafish: and switched
insanelikeafish: what could he do =/
insanelikeafish: the only problem is
insanelikeafish: vamp could fake judas or saulus
TasselFoot: if 3 people came out, it'd be kinda obvious
insanelikeafish: unless judas or saulus decided not to come out
insanelikeafish: if saulus goes "well vamp coming out in my palce would definiately **** up the humans"
TasselFoot: would **** up the wolves too, if he gets lynched.
insanelikeafish: oh yeah
insanelikeafish: he has to kill everyone
insanelikeafish: vamp that is
TasselFoot: yup
TasselFoot: here's an interesting situation:
TasselFoot: 3 people left. SK, W, H.
insanelikeafish: day or night
TasselFoot: if the human is killed, its a draw. if the W is killed, SK wins. if the SK is killed, the W wins.
TasselFoot: day
insanelikeafish: if W is killed, humans win
TasselFoot: no
insanelikeafish: yes
insanelikeafish: humans don't have to kill sk to win
TasselFoot: no
TasselFoot: yes they do
TasselFoot: read the rules
insanelikeafish: YOU READ THE RULES
TasselFoot: i did
insanelikeafish: i could've sworn
insanelikeafish: hold on
TasselFoot: you're wrong
insanelikeafish: you mo fo
insanelikeafish: you just wait
TasselFoot: The Humans DO NEED TO KILL the SerialKiller to win, as do the WOLVES

insanelikeafish: yeah
insanelikeafish: shut up
insanelikeafish: weird
insanelikeafish: okay so he's gotta die
TasselFoot: he is enemy #1 for wolves and humans
insanelikeafish: alright
insanelikeafish: so coming out, even as faking someone else, is bad news
insanelikeafish: so we don't really have to worry about htat
insanelikeafish: that*
insanelikeafish: he's public enemy #21
insanelikeafish: 1**
insanelikeafish: okay
insanelikeafish: so what do you think
insanelikeafish: downsides of saulus and judas coming out
TasselFoot: so what are the pros and cons for everyone if judas/saulus come out
insanelikeafish: hahgahahah
insanelikeafish: ups - 2 less people to worry about
insanelikeafish: downs - two less people the wovles ahve to worry about
insanelikeafish: and the wolves could contact
insanelikeafish: them
TasselFoot: risky, but could
insanelikeafish: although that would be ballsy
insanelikeafish: that's a pretty big down to consider
insanelikeafish: i'mma see what talis thinks, let's have a chat
TasselFoot: only way i see a wolf contacting saulus or a ress'd judas is if a wolf is in danger of being lynched
TasselFoot: and needed to swing votes
insanelikeafish: yeah


in a chat w/ ld and hans:
*** notsofaroff has joined the chat.
notsofaroff: 4srs
insanelikeafish: ya
insanelikeafish: not a big chat
notsofaroff: I'm about to leave
insanelikeafish: o
notsofaroff: but uhhhhh
notsofaroff: hi
TasselFoot: gtfo, wolf
insanelikeafish: hahaha
notsofaroff: you heard him fish
insanelikeafish: o right
insanelikeafish: no we were talking about
insanelikeafish: the pros and cons of having judas and saulus come out
insanelikeafish: as it's a waste to the humans to lynch them
insanelikeafish: and it eliminates wolf suspects
insanelikeafish: (and blue suspects for the wolves)
notsofaroff: but really
notsofaroff: what you have to take into consideration
notsofaroff: is how it benefits the,
notsofaroff: them*
notsofaroff: Which I don't think it does..
TasselFoot: they don't get killed... they have no downside.
insanelikeafish: they won't be killed?
TasselFoot: they don't have much upside, but zero downside
insanelikeafish: plus then the wolves can contact them
TasselFoot: plus, it benefits their respecitive teams.
insanelikeafish: and they can do all their dirty dealing
notsofaroff: and if the wolves attack saulus
notsofaroff: we'd have to lynch him the day after
TasselFoot: saulus is on wolf team to start
TasselFoot: you mean judas?
notsofaroff: o
notsofaroff: yeah
TasselFoot: hmm
notsofaroff: Got them confused
TasselFoot: i guess that is the only con
notsofaroff: but it would waste a day
notsofaroff: and the wolves would know that
insanelikeafish: why would we need to lynch them
insanelikeafish: with no info what could they do
TasselFoot: you wouldn't NEED to.
TasselFoot: but i see the logic behind wanting to
notsofaroff: well yeah...
insanelikeafish: judas, that is
insanelikeafish: stage 2 judas
notsofaroff: I guess so.
TasselFoot: although i disagree doing it
insanelikeafish: that would waste a wolf kill, which is fine by me
notsofaroff: But having two more non-humans is goign to hurt us
insanelikeafish: wolves would be dumb to do that
TasselFoot: they aren't "human" to begin with
insanelikeafish: yeah
TasselFoot: they are shapeshifters
TasselFoot: good point fish. killing judas would be a waste to begin with
notsofaroff: but wouldn't having judas and saulus on their team take a day away?
insanelikeafish: what?
insanelikeafish: they're still humans
insanelikeafish: i mean
insanelikeafish: they count towards teh human count
insanelikeafish: no matter what phase they're in
notsofaroff: but they wouldn't be on our team
insanelikeafish: it's wolves vs non-wolves for the count
insanelikeafish: i asked blah about it
notsofaroff: so instas are a lot easier with two more people
*** lightdarkness42 has joined the chat.
insanelikeafish: IT'S THE END OF TEH WOLRD
TasselFoot: as you know it
insanelikeafish: sup ld
lightdarkness42: doing very bad
lightdarkness42: I really messed up my back
notsofaroff: and I feel fine
insanelikeafish: oh no, how'd you do that?
lightdarkness42: gym
insanelikeafish: wolfing nforcer?
insanelikeafish: oh
lightdarkness42: just a wrong turn
lightdarkness42: heard a crack
insanelikeafish: that sucks, probably herniated a disk
lightdarkness42: and I was downnnnnnnn
notsofaroff: that's great it starts as an earthquake birds snakes and aero...planes?
lightdarkness42: I hope not
notsofaroff: er
lightdarkness42: I'm going on a trip at the ned of the month :-\
notsofaroff: I forget the song
insanelikeafish: sorry it started raining
insanelikeafish: had to take the laundry down
TasselFoot: so... i'm still in favor of the 2 RRs coming out.
insanelikeafish: me too
insanelikeafish: you wanna do the honors Tass
insanelikeafish: post teh pros and cons
TasselFoot: sure
notsofaroff: wait
notsofaroff: what I'm saying is
notsofaroff: if they both come out and end up on the wolf side
*** insanelikeafish has left the chat.
notsofaroff: that's two extra votes the wolves have
notsofaroff: kinda like the the tribal game that tass prides himself so much over
notsofaroff: the game will be unofficially over, since the humans would be outnumbered
notsofaroff: but really
notsofaroff: I gtg
TasselFoot: but that only works if the wolves can co-ordinate with them. which requires trust and faith.
TasselFoot: that i don't think the wolves have
notsofaroff: say you have human judas and wolf saulus out in the open
notsofaroff: you're down to like
notsofaroff: day...
notsofaroff: uh
TasselFoot: are you factoring in the SK?
TasselFoot: because he has to be killed for either humans OR wolves to win
TasselFoot: which throws off any normal calculation of end of game scenarios
notsofaroff: meh no
notsofaroff: but by the end of day 3
notsofaroff: without SK
notsofaroff: the wolves could attack judas
notsofaroff: and at worst have a KiB with a human that day
notsofaroff: if all three wolves are alive
notsofaroff: on day 4
notsofaroff: if they keep quiet..
notsofaroff: then those two votes don't exist
TasselFoot: posted...
*** stressreliefball has joined the chat.
stressreliefball: oh I missed it
*** stressreliefball has left the chat.
*** wilkini evili has joined the chat.
wilkini evili: *presence*
TasselFoot: meh
wilkini evili: Meh?
TasselFoot: you agree with my idea?
wilkini evili: A lot of it.
wilkini evili: There's always the wolves trying to get Judas, though.
TasselFoot: i posted about that
wilkini evili: Ah.
wilkini evili: I just got back to my computer.
wilkini evili: Makes sense.
TasselFoot: yup
wilkini evili: Wait,
wilkini evili: Would Judas then count as a part of the wolfing team, and thus have to get lynched, or would he still count as a human towards either side winning?
TasselFoot: judas and saulus count as humans, always
wilkini evili: Like, would he factor in with wolves > humans, etc.?
wilkini evili: Okay.
TasselFoot: that is another plus... 2 humans who you know aren't going to die
wilkini evili: Exactly.
wilkini evili: The wolves getting him would be a gamble, depending on how it was played.
wilkini evili: This game'll probably go to seven or eight days, assuming the SK doesn't start acting up.
TasselFoot: it'll go that long guarenteed if he does
TasselFoot: but, i agree. it'll be a long game.



There are probably strats in there that I shouldn't have posted, as they don't work if the wolves know about them.... but frankly, I'm damn frickin' busy right now, and I'm not proofreading all the logs.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Well Tass promised to pick my post apart but in the mean time here's what humans should do to set up an alliance.

We pretty much have to kill saulus today IMO to set it up though.

Since wolves can't kill kefit during the night, kefit will be raised. At this point guardian and seer go to him. Saulus tells who each one is for guarding/seering purposes. The role that Saulus plays in the alliance after that is up to the seer, but kefit should do any talking for the alliance to protect the seer from any possible SK that could occur. (Which is a possibility after any "guarding")

I don't know if this is just common knowledge for everyone but I'm just making sure that since we were dealt this hand, we might as well use it.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

so like... here's a thought.

we kill kefit.
we wait and see what the night brings.
if there's a "guard", we wait while...
...the guardian tells kefit, who is now human (hopefully kefit is telling the truth, I kinda doubt he isn't, but it's possible I suppose) whether or not he guarded wilkin.
......if no, we lynch wilkin
............if wilkin comes back, we go "oh ****" and lynch him again


or something like that.

Ummm talisman if the guardian says he guarded wilkin there would be no reason to lynch him since wilkin would still be a human.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Okay, since I'll be sleeping and working on my vibrations project all of tomorrow and I haven't even read the thread yet, first person to IM me with whom to vote for gets my vote.

GOGOGO!!!

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Well, while what to do with the RRs is important info, we've neglected to talk about nForcer's demise.

It was pretty clear that he was going to be inactive for at least the beginning of the game, which may be a factor of why he was killed. The wolves had about a 31% chance of hitting a "guard," and were perhaps looking for someone unlikely to be guarded in order to slim down those chances. Tonight, assuming they don't go for Kefit or myself, they'll have about a 19% chance of hitting one, which will only grow as more non-RRs are lynched.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Just a small note:

Guardian, don't guard Wilkin. If you listen to me on this, then we will know when he switches to the wolf side when we are told he is "guarded" during the night. Then we can lynch him straight away. If you do guard Wilkin, then we can't be sure if you guarded him or if he was resurrected as per his role.

So please, don't guard Wilkin.