TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

That only covers night 2. night 3+ will be wide open.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

I was just talking out a ridiculous idea with Iggy, that I think might work. Poke some holes in this idea for me.

Vamp comes out, leads the allinace. He can be trusted with info becuase if he's killed, he just goes rogue, not to the wolves. The worst he could do is post all the blue's names, but that would give him away as being the SK (either that would give him away, or having two kills in one night). This benefits the vamp if he is not attacked, but it most surely means his eventual defeat if he is. I don't think the vamp will come out and do this, but since the idea has been tossed around that Kefit and Wilkin came out as each other's roles, this seems safer at the moment.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

The vamp wouldn't be lynched because he is alliance leader.

He PROBABLY wouldn't be wolfed since the vamp will come back a SK and be able to narrow down a couple of wolves. Obviously if he's killed he loses because as a SK he's on no one's side.

But if he stays hidden then he would have to avoid being lynched (since he would be resurrected as the SK.)

The only chance that the vampire has is if he is wolfed. Even then it's a small chance since wolves will think he's the seer or someone the guardian picked.

And if the vampire reveals himself we wouldn't have to waste a lynch on wilkin or kefit and can focuse on the wolves. This raises the chance that the wolves will try to get in contact with either of them but with the chance that they could have reversed their roles and totally screw themselves over.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

y helo thar wilkin.

Seems pretty direct, Kefit it is.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

I don't know how many for insta, but I'm going to take my vote off just incase we're one away. talisman

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

<3 fish.

anyway, uh yeah I mean the vamp coming out and leading was my initial idea just pregame thinking about potential strats but I dunno about now. It might work out just fine for us since we'd know who to lynch should more than one person start dying, etc... but it would make the guardian a little bit too busy (guardian against wolfings to stomp the turn for both judas and vamp). Also I frankly don't see why he would do it. As he basically would then guarantee that if he dies once he isn't going to win. Guess it would be up to him.

Oh, another thing to think about with that. so we don't lynch kefit (due to vamp coming out), we would then lynch someone else, say that person were green well then that reduces the field for the wolves to pick from quite alot and their chances of hitting the guardian/seer increase.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Yea having the vampire come out is bad news for the guardian mostly. But it hurts the wolves even more as their chances of being lynched goes up.

A two edged sword nonetheless.

Another thing I thought about for why the wolves wouldn't kill the vampire, is if he doesn't die then wolves (and anyone working with the wolves) > humans = wolf victory.

BUT if the vampire is killed the wolves wouldn't win if wolves > humans because SK has to die also. Might be a reason for the humans to keep the SK alive and make the wolves waste another wolfing on him.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

You know, I usually don't live long anyways. I was going to reveal myself tomorrow but that would lower the chances of people thinking I'm the vampire over being the serial killer.

I'm the vampire guys, I don't think any lynches should be wasted on kefit or wilkin unless we need to.

So I just raised the chances of the seer getting hit by the wolves (because I'm not the seer.) I would hope that the guardian and seer would come to me along with the night 1 seer and we can start ruling out wolves.

@ the wolves: If I die, I WILL go for you guys on any of my kills. I will make you kill me twice and waste your wolfings. I'm on the human side first but even if I die and become my own team, I will mess your chances of winning up.

@ Humans: If I die, I won't go for you. If I am hit with a wolfing and then lynched, you guys would hurt yourself as I can still kill for you even though I'm not on your team. If I die, I can't win anyways which is why I would help you out over the wolves, who would have screwed me over from victory.

So with that being said, I hopefully won't be lynched, and if I get wolfed I become the wolves' worse enemy. (Remember wolves, if you keep me alive, then I can't do anything if you outnumber the humans, but if you kill me, you will have to kill me again and there's no reason to do that since you could have focused on 2 humans over just me.)

And just so the wolves know what kind of odds I have of getting them:
seer + guardian + judas + saulus + vampire + n1 wolfing + n1 seer + n2 seer + d1 lynch = 9 people I know AREN'T wolves. I could even tell the seer who I was killing and then the seer could choose another person. Which would basically mean, I could pick out of 6 people, 3 of which would be a wolf (given your best circumstances)

I'd say it's worth the risk. I'm sure as heck not going to win this as a SK, might as well take the risk on winning as a human.

Your move from here guys.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

The key difference between your role and mine is that mine can be verified, with benefit to the humans, by lynching me.

Your's cannot.

Furthermore, the real vampire/serial killer has everything to gain by allowing you to pretend to be his role. With our suspicions locked on to you, no one will look towards anyone else.

Your plan is too risky - mine is not, and if everyone believes I am Saulus, then no one has anything to lose by adopting it. At worst I die night 3, but by that time an alliance of some form would have already been formed.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Just to clarify, I am saying that there is a very real possibility that you are a wolf pretending to be the vampire, Iggy. If that is the case then your proposal would be ruinous for the humans.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

whoa wtf. rofl at all the roles coming out.

anyway uh, why not just take iggy's formula there and exchange iggy and kefit? same thing, no, without the dangers kefit brings up (plus the fact that if killed iggy will have to go for humans sooner or later)?

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Hans to take the pressure off of Kefit while more dicsussing is done.

[ddrdanc3r55]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Yes, I'm going to watch this a bit more. See what happens and look into this vampire thing.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

whoa wtf. rofl at all the roles coming out.

anyway uh, why not just take iggy's formula there and exchange iggy and kefit? same thing, no, without the dangers kefit brings up (plus the fact that if killed iggy will have to go for humans sooner or later)?

I am the better choice because 1) You don't have to kill kefit and waste a day's lynch on him and focus can be on the wolves rather than trying to set up the alliance. 2) Since Judas coming out wasn't beneficial for himself, I question whether or not wilkin actually is judas and is just faking a saulus. 3) Even if I did turn into the SK, I couldn't act on it because it would get me killed, as long as I'm not getting lynched then the wolves would have to go for me twice to kill me so that fact alone lower's the chance of me getting wolfed. 4) If we waste a lynch on kefit then he could easily die night 3 and then the alliance would be hidden without anyone to say what to do. (I.E. a wolf gets revealed)

Yes I'm taking a big risk by revealing myself, but like I said, I can be mutually trusted since if I turned, then revealing information about the humans would get me killed and I wouldn't benefit anyways. On the other hand if Kefit is really Judas, then he turns to the wolf side and has EVERYTHING to benefit by revealing information because even if he dies a second time, he would still win with the wolves.

Plus you could even have the guadian guard me, that way I stay human and have no chance of turning, this is risky since seer is wide open, but after so many days it wouldn't matter.

[evilbutterfly]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Way to go guys might as well have the seer and guardian come out now too! Good lord you people are idiots. -__- Now that's 6 people the wolves know AREN'T the seer/guardian, and since the guardian/seer don't know each other without coming to one of the revealed roles, the guardian can't guard the seer every night, so now the wolves have a REALLY REALLY GOOD SHOT at killing the seer.

Idiots. -___-