TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

[MiniNeo]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Suprisingly (or not), no one have contacted me through aim for the entire game.

(or, actually, in the back of my mind I recall iggy trying to reach me in like the first day or so, not sure)

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

I've been talking with a few people and they are saying that my theory is wrong and that (for today) after someone got 4.1 votes, then they are gone no matter what.

Which really sucks, because that cusion I was talking about almost all game is gone... thanks for no one bringing it until now.

Will think on everything in a different perspective..

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Ok got it. I assume there are two wolves. (there could easily just be one wolf but if there's only one then we have nothing to worry about for now.)

Today we lynch someone, day comes and there are 6 people left. If there were 2 wolves left then they win because they will latch to EB or LD for the 3.1 votes for the insta lynch.

Even if we kill EB or LD this senario occurs... so humans have to take a risk (if you also think there are two wolves left.)

RISK 1: Hope you nail a wolf. You have a 1/5 chance. (EB, LD, kilga, DDR, mini)

RISK 2: Guardian resurrects someone. This would counter the night kill thus putting us back to 7 players come day, and also gives us another day.

RISK 3: Kill EB or LD today and hope there is only one wolf left. (The wolves won't go for wilkin tonight if there are two of them, but if there was one of them then the wolf may try to get wilkin on his team for an added vote later on.)

RISK 4: This idea is sooooo funny I'm just that stupid to suggest it..... lynch me today. This would still give us 6 people for the next day but it gives the humans an extra day to get it right with a wolf. Probably the most risk involved but it gives you an extra day, 2 less people to choose from, and another seer report. This game is fairly boring so I think it would just be fun to do it this way. Most risk but it is a possibility at this point.

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

I don't remember if it was defined whether or not the wolves would get a kill in addition to tryingto trap the guardian. If they don't, then that's a pretty good plan, as it would in fact get us another day (no kill + another human). If they get both, then the best we could hope for is another gain of half a day, as the numbers will remain the same (assuming the guardian isn't hit). If my math is incorrect, feel free to fix it.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

number 4 is flat out retarded, you would just kill me during the night since the guardian can't stop you and then we'd be right back at 6 people... and then ugh **** gets nasty. well I'm not sure if you would gain your powers right away... but still. that would be lame.

[MiniNeo]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Hm, kill eb/ld then seer the other one tonight? If that take places along with the resurrection I think that would be pretty nice.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

alright so....

ddr: that's a nice start I guess but I want to see what your thoughts are on the others as well.

mini: pretty limited, reread the thread like you said you hadn't and make a more informed post.

kilga: nice summary but short on analysis. Still waiting for the analysis behind those conclusions that your promised.

eb: stop playing ms for an hour and give some thought to this game, in case you missed my post above I want your suspicions on the other three people on the block today as well as any defense you have of yourself or points others have brought up that you want to counter.

This is a fairly critical day. If there are two wolves left it will be pretty much game over when day breaks tomorrow if we don't kill one of them.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Oh yeah. Sorry, I'll get to typing it up right away.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Okay, so obviously at least one of the red seerings was a frame. I would like to think it was only one, and given the people involved I feel most confident in thinking that Afro was a wolf. Tass could have been a frame, but Kefit brought up some good points on him in his voting post, so I'm not sure there. Guido acted like I've never seen him act before, human or wolf, in his death throes. Don't know what to make of that.

Right now my top suspicion is randumb. The vote for Guido was awful. It came at a terrible time and was the basest reasoning possible. It is quite possible that he was the only wolf left at that point (with Tass and Afro being true seerings), and if such was the case then no one would have been guiding him along and telling him that it was a boneheaded move. I've seen that kind of vote at a0.com, BMS and DDRFreak a lot, and if someone is coming from one of those places to here from the first time they're not going to know any better.

This is the point where I can see eb being his partner, because eb was playing MapleStory at the time and thus wouldn't have been able to jump in beforehand and tell him that such a vote was stupid. So instead, he comes in after the fact and publicly denounces the vote, potentially distancing himself from randumb while still giving him some "advice".

Going back to other incidents, the Day 3 vote on LD was an easy vote on an easy target and the only post he made for the day. On Day 2, he initially threatened and then voted Tass, but later switched to Tps. I can see this happening if Tass was a wolf very easily, because not only is randumb not likely to put down a solid vote for a teammate (again, this is based on my a0.com/BMS/DidderFreak experience), but Tass would probably give him hell in private if he didn't change it because the last thing Tass ever wants is to die, much less at the hands of teammates.

eb has already been partly explained above, but in addition, when he yelled at randumb for the Guido vote, he didn't make one of his own. He had said earlier that MapleStory was going to drag him away for a while and as such he probably wasn't going to vote until later, but he was right there then, so why not vote then, even if it wasn't for Guido? I also want to know what prompted to come back from MapleStory at all to read the thread, because it was that 2X Experience day and apparently that's pretty important.

Neo, I just don't know. He's done a few things I could poke at, like the middle-of-the-pack votes on people who had been successfully seered, and the poking at Tass because of the phantom, but I just don't get too much of a red feeling from him.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Also, updated peoplez list because I kept thinking Hans was still alive and I am le stupid.

wilkin
minineo
iggy
kilga
talisman
ddrdanc3r55
LD
EB

[evilbutterfly]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Before I post my big post explaining stuff or whatever that talis wants, CAN YOU PLEASE TELL ME WHO THE HELL IS RANDUMB!? YOU ARE CONFUSING THE HELL OUT OF ME!

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

ddrdanc3r55 = Randumb

Randumb's his name on two other forums, but I guess for some reason he couldn't do it on FFR.

[evilbutterfly]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

K, as far as the insta thing goes, either me or LD has to go before tomorrow just in case there are 2 wolves. Now of course I'm going to say LD because I want to stay alive, but really, I think LD deserves a death more than I do. Has he even posted AT ALL in this thread? At least I try to contribute a little bit. =\

Oh, and as for the "lynch one, seer the other" plan, gj saying that in the thread. Given that everybody suspects me and I apparently haven't been seered yet, there's a pretty damn good chance I'm getting framed tonight, and publicly telling the seer to seer me tonight does not help me. Yeah, call it wolfy for me to be like "ohnoes don't seer me" but honestly, I don't think it'll prove much of anything if everybody (including the wolf(es)) knows it's gonna happen. =\

Kilga, about coming back to post on the 2x day, are you SURE it was the 11th? Cuz I played Maplestory for about 11 hours straight that day (yeah shut up) and I can't remember doing anything else. I might have stopped in and posted after the 11 hours straight MSing, just because I was soooooo freaking burnt out on MS after that, and I had already leveled up twice.

iggy: Hell no we're not gonna lynch you. I'm pretty sure you don't get your powers the night right after being lynched, but still, purposely choosing to move somebody from our team to their own evil team is not what we want. Suggesting things like that makes me trust you less and less.

But as for the top candidates for wolfiness...I've said this many many times, but I have bad people sense. I don't know that ddr kid at all, so he just seems stupid. Kilga seems disinterested (and has even said so) so I dunno about him either. And minineo I haven't played with much, I don't think, so I can't read him, plus I don't recall him posting a whole lot. Plus, you guys have to remember that I wasn't even gonna sign up for this game. I haven't played the last 3 or so before this, and I was planning on not playing this one either until blah was like OMG JOIN IT'LL BE DIFFERENT AND BETTER I PROMISE! so I figured I'd give it a shot. Well it's kinda different but TWG is still boring and I have trouble giving much thought to it. Especially after I won that one TWG just by being inactive and kinda talking to Hans here and there, I convinced myself that TWG requires very little skill and is reliant a lot on luck. Thus, I don't feel inclined to do much because I figure it won't help anything, so I just wait for an alliance leader to pass me down a wolf for which to vote. I'm still waiting for Infiltration 2, and I kinda just want this game to be over. -___-

PS: LD because I think we oughta get rid of one of us 2-phantom people just in case, and he's not me so I figure I'll vote him. Plus I don't want even more phantoms. -__-

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

Nice job throwing a vote on LD. Make it easier for an insta why don't ya?

Day doesn't end until 8pm tomorrow and you're the one now rushing a day when there's a lot to talk about. (remember you saying that from day one about kefit?)

Whatever I guess EB needs to save himself rather than help the team. (Oh wait he said doing that was bad on day 1 also. Only he was referring to me and wilkin coming out to save ourselves. )

I guess standards change when you are on the chopping block.

[evilbutterfly]

Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

That's the thing, YOU WEREN'T ON A CHOPPING BLOCK, YOU WERE JUST BEIN SELFISH. Idiot.