Re: TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past
Uh oh wall of text time.
The Saulus REALLY shouldn't reveal himself, unless it is with the intent of getting lynched. Furthermore, if the Judas dies and is resurrected on the side of the wolves, we need to lynch him. Here's why:
The Judas and the the Saulus, when on the side of the wolves, each allow the wolves to win one day earlier. In a game with 18 people and 3 wolves, the wolves would normally need to survive six lynchings, getting to night 7, before they could win. However, if on Day 6 there are 3 wolves, the Saulus, and 3 humans, then the wolves+Saulus can end the day immediately with their votes, resulting in wolf victory with one less lynching survival than normally required. Effectively, the wolves would be locked into victory after evading the Day 5 lynching in this case. Adding the Judas to the mix merely allows the wolves to begin their unstoppable win earlier. Of course, this only works when the wolves and the Saulus (or Judas after resurrection) are colluding, but we can probably be assured that that will be happening if the Saulus reveals himself or if Wilken dies and is ressurected.
Now by lynching the Saulus, we gain half a day on the wolves - wolf autovictory is pushed back a day, the wolves have one less lynching to survive, but we gain an additional human when the Saulus resurrects on our side. Thus the Saulus should be lynched when we see him, no questions asked. The Judas, on the other hand, is a bit trickier. Lynching him pushes wolf autovictory back a day andgives the wolves one less lynching to survive, but we don't gain an additional human. Thus, we break even. However, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that some pertinent info will come up, either from the seer or from posts/chatlogs. Thus, we want to extend the game, and we need to lynch the Judas/Wilken if he is resurrected.
Of course, I haven't yet factored in the possibility of resurections pushing wolf victory back. Each resurrection has the same effect as a failed wolfing. Wolf victory gets pushed back half a day, regardless of who gets ressurrected. This means that the wolves want to avoid hitting resurrecting roles if possible. The exception is the Judas - hitting him will knock wolves back half a day, but his vote will either move their lock for victory a day forward, or his lynch will act as one less lynch that the wolves have to survive through. Either way effectively moves wolf victory forward by one day, resulting in a net gain of half a day for the wolves. This gain is fairly meaningless now, since half a day won't move victory foward at all, but if another player is resurrected at some point, then the wolves can gain back the half day they lose by wolfing Judas, thus returning to their original day of victory. In other words, Judas is a prime wolfing target, something which should probably be kept in mind by the guardian. Furthermore, if the wolves lose half a day to a resurrection somewhere along the line, then they have nothing to lose by going after Judas - if he is guarded they lose half a day, which isn't enough to knock wolf victory back to the next day, and if he isn't guarded then they gain back their half a day and their victory moves forward to where it used to be.
As for the serial murderer? Well, the best option for both us and the wolves is to simply not kill the vampire. However, this is something we really don't have much control over, since the vampire wants human victory, and will just act like a normal human. If the vampire is killed and then resurrected, then the wolves lose half a day, like normal. However, serial murderer killing of humans moves wolf victory up half a day with each death, whereas their victory moves wolf victory back by a full day. Thus, there is a good chance that we can let the wolves kill the serial murderer for us, since he poses a far greater threat to them than he does to us.
And that is all I have for now. Someone lemme know if I made a mistake somewhere.
Uh oh wall of text time.
The Saulus REALLY shouldn't reveal himself, unless it is with the intent of getting lynched. Furthermore, if the Judas dies and is resurrected on the side of the wolves, we need to lynch him. Here's why:
The Judas and the the Saulus, when on the side of the wolves, each allow the wolves to win one day earlier. In a game with 18 people and 3 wolves, the wolves would normally need to survive six lynchings, getting to night 7, before they could win. However, if on Day 6 there are 3 wolves, the Saulus, and 3 humans, then the wolves+Saulus can end the day immediately with their votes, resulting in wolf victory with one less lynching survival than normally required. Effectively, the wolves would be locked into victory after evading the Day 5 lynching in this case. Adding the Judas to the mix merely allows the wolves to begin their unstoppable win earlier. Of course, this only works when the wolves and the Saulus (or Judas after resurrection) are colluding, but we can probably be assured that that will be happening if the Saulus reveals himself or if Wilken dies and is ressurected.
Now by lynching the Saulus, we gain half a day on the wolves - wolf autovictory is pushed back a day, the wolves have one less lynching to survive, but we gain an additional human when the Saulus resurrects on our side. Thus the Saulus should be lynched when we see him, no questions asked. The Judas, on the other hand, is a bit trickier. Lynching him pushes wolf autovictory back a day andgives the wolves one less lynching to survive, but we don't gain an additional human. Thus, we break even. However, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that some pertinent info will come up, either from the seer or from posts/chatlogs. Thus, we want to extend the game, and we need to lynch the Judas/Wilken if he is resurrected.
Of course, I haven't yet factored in the possibility of resurections pushing wolf victory back. Each resurrection has the same effect as a failed wolfing. Wolf victory gets pushed back half a day, regardless of who gets ressurrected. This means that the wolves want to avoid hitting resurrecting roles if possible. The exception is the Judas - hitting him will knock wolves back half a day, but his vote will either move their lock for victory a day forward, or his lynch will act as one less lynch that the wolves have to survive through. Either way effectively moves wolf victory forward by one day, resulting in a net gain of half a day for the wolves. This gain is fairly meaningless now, since half a day won't move victory foward at all, but if another player is resurrected at some point, then the wolves can gain back the half day they lose by wolfing Judas, thus returning to their original day of victory. In other words, Judas is a prime wolfing target, something which should probably be kept in mind by the guardian. Furthermore, if the wolves lose half a day to a resurrection somewhere along the line, then they have nothing to lose by going after Judas - if he is guarded they lose half a day, which isn't enough to knock wolf victory back to the next day, and if he isn't guarded then they gain back their half a day and their victory moves forward to where it used to be.
As for the serial murderer? Well, the best option for both us and the wolves is to simply not kill the vampire. However, this is something we really don't have much control over, since the vampire wants human victory, and will just act like a normal human. If the vampire is killed and then resurrected, then the wolves lose half a day, like normal. However, serial murderer killing of humans moves wolf victory up half a day with each death, whereas their victory moves wolf victory back by a full day. Thus, there is a good chance that we can let the wolves kill the serial murderer for us, since he poses a far greater threat to them than he does to us.
And that is all I have for now. Someone lemme know if I made a mistake somewhere.
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