TWG XXVI: The Werewolf Game TWG (game over)

[talisman]

What the hell? What "evidence" tass? There's been absolutely nothing that says I'm a wolf any more than you're a wolf, other than the fact that we agreed with each other early on. Have I posted more? Probably, but I always do, and my posts are all exactly the kind of posts I always make when I'm human, because I AM human.

Now for that matter, I'm fairly certain tass is human too, based on his voting to save me, and nothing else really. But that's pretty strong evidence in its own right.

There are really only two (probable) possibilities I see. The first, and most likely possibility, is that it is kilga/mead or kilga/ld. I like the idea of kilga/ld more than kilga/mead, but it could honestly go either way. The second is that it's nforcer/vash, which would be kind of a stretch, although I guess you could say his most recent post is indicative of a wolf not looking like he wants to commit to a bandwagon or something. I dunno... I think his post is a lot more reasonable than some others. btw it couldn't be nforcer/mead or nforcer/tasuke because that would mean that fojar sent in the night three kill hella early before he left, before even hans started making his big posts day two.

[evilbutterfly]

I have no idea what's going on with this whole talis/Tass thing. Of course, I never see talisman as suspicious cuz he's always so damn helpful, and Tass always seems the same to me. Even the games where Afro was like "OMG HE HAS TO BE A WOLF" I didn't see it. *shrug* I do, think, though, that if Hans wasn't guarded I would be super suspicious of him for all this. I don't supose he could be faking it, though.

TasselFoot (8:57:49 PM): i'm trying to do anything i can to get you to see you're wrong. and as you feel so strongly that we only have 2 lynchings left, instead of 3

Do we really only have 2 lynchings left if both wolves are alive? Did we not gain anything from the guarding?

PS: Sorry for being afk and getting a phantom. I don't usually get phantoms (I can't remember the last time I got one, if I ever have gotten one...) so I feel really bad about it, but I was playing MS and wasn't paying attention. -___-;;;

PPS: On that note, I'd like to avoid a phantom today if at all possible. So...

there is no reasoning behind my vote, besides the fact that I think it's a reason.

this makes no sense. LD is suspicious or something. >___>

[nforcer06164]

Actually, Talisman, I was going to vote Kilga, but held off as I wanted an explanation as to the suspicion on YOU before I made a commitment on a vote. If the explanation made enough sense to me, my vote on Kilga wouldn't be so justified. MiniNeo's explanation cleared things up a little. It's not exactly what I'm looking for, but I guess it makes enough sense.

Why I was confused: all Tass did was say, "I'm human. If you want to kill somebody, kill Talisman." Then Hans changed his vote, Kilga changed his vote... it all seemed very odd to me. In addition, I didn't understand why the jump on Tass and Talisman in the first place.

I'm leaning towards believing Hans because I really don't have much better to go on right now. I thought it through for a little while, and that seems to be the best course of action at this moment. I'm still going to hold off on a vote 'til I'm sure.

[Tasselfoot]

The conversation that Hans posted does a decent job of explaining exactly why Talisman is the new flavor of the month over me... I just had to give a small push to get them to see it.

And.... should it come to this (I still feel Talisman is human as well), my apologies to Talisman. Hans currently has control of this game, and he feels that you and I are wolves. If he doesn't lynch one of us today, he believes his penis will fall off, or some other horrific fate. As such... well, Darwin speaks loudly.

I'll be away from my comp until 2-3am... doing homework, then turoring, then lab, then poker. I'll make sure to be around most of tomorrow to finalize things with myself at a minimum, and hopefully with Talisman as well.

[talisman]

It's honestly voting based on nothing but gut instinct... and then using that instinct to generate a farfetched scenario. And I still haven't seen hans respond to the two pieces of evidence I've raised which conflict with the third level theory. (well yeah he responded to one of them but with an argument I had already countered.)

the case against kilga:

-his weird tone change in his first post day two
-this obviously insincere justification for bandwagonning with hans:

If Hans is playing me for a fool, then he has me good, and I need to seriously rethink whether I will continue to play this game afterward.

-the vote day one is classic wolf material: not completely random, but on a low enough tier player it's overlooked and with enough justification to make it seem like he's trying.
-how willing he was to hop on the anti tass/talis train in the first place. Hans, don't you find it a little odd how receptive kilga was to the idea? I know you two discussed it, so I don't know exactly how it was brought up. In fact I'd really like to see any logs of the convos between you two at that point. Point being: if you're a wolf and a human comes to you with the suggestion that maybe the two most active/helpful humans in the game are wolves, you take the opportunity and run with it. And why not attack hans the next night to frame tass or me? If he gets guarded that's all the better since you're on his good side anyways. Hmmm, you know what? Something just occurred to me... maybe kilga's "the wolves are TWGers pretending to be jTWGers" argument was just a setup for implicating tass or me. Who brought up the idea in the convo first, kilga or hans? (Obviously hans posted about it first).
-the tps kill. Someone who was either really smart or paying a decent amount of attention to the game or both would have had to have made this kill. I know I'm human, hans is, and tass most likely is, so of all the people who were smart and/or paying attention that leaves kilga. True, it could have just been a random kill by wolf/wolves just picking names out of a hat, but I don't think so.

[Kilgamayan]

-his weird tone change in his first post day two

I explained this already. How many linear functions go through (0, 0) in comparison to the number that go through (0, 0) and, say, (2, 4)? A lot more. Two pieces of data are far more helpful in determining trends than one.

-this obviously insincere justification for bandwagonning with hans:

If Hans is playing me for a fool, then he has me good, and I need to seriously rethink whether I will continue to play this game afterward.

I pride myself in being able to admit I'm wrong, because very few people in this world are capable of it. This is merely a formality serving to apologize in advance if I'm wrong, because there's always the possibility (unless I'm the seer and a look turned up red, which is irrelevant to this game). It's not the first time I've done it either.

-the vote day one is classic wolf material: not completely random, but on a low enough tier player it's overlooked and with enough justification to make it seem like he's trying.

I told you already, I've done that strategy as a human multiple times at BMS and a0.com and it worked out more often than not (in fact, it's batting pretty close to a thousand). Why would I not try it again? Sure, this is FFR, but I think FFR will be the first to admit that for the most part, its jTWGers are lacking, and the odds that this one particular jTWGer is actually really smart aren't that great, so the strat is worth a try.

-how willing he was to hop on the anti tass/talis train in the first place. Hans, don't you find it a little odd how receptive kilga was to the idea? I know you two discussed it, so I don't know exactly how it was brought up. In fact I'd really like to see any logs of the convos between you two at that point. Point being: if you're a wolf and a human comes to you with the suggestion that maybe the two most active/helpful humans in the game are wolves, you take the opportunity and run with it. And why not attack hans the next night to frame tass or me? If he gets guarded that's all the better since you're on his good side anyways. Hmmm, you know what? Something just occurred to me... maybe kilga's "the wolves are TWGers pretending to be jTWGers" argument was just a setup for implicating tass or me. Who brought up the idea in the convo first, kilga or hans? (Obviously hans posted about it first).

I've had a Hans window open for a little over a week now, so I think I have everything relevant. Rather than waste my time trying to predict waht you'll say, I'll let you take a look, form your own conclusions and then respond based on what you think.

NotSoFarOff: asdf
NotSoFarOff: You sir
NotSoFarOff: You wouldn't put it past Tass and talisman to be wolves together and post a fake convo, right?
bjstrattonIM: Not at all.
NotSoFarOff: This game has me in circles.
bjstrattonIM: rofl
NotSoFarOff: Yeah.
NotSoFarOff: I think that talisman and/or Tass need to go soon.
NotSoFarOff: Maybe not today, but we'll wait and see after tonight's kill.
bjstrattonIM: I'll keep in under consideration.
NotSoFarOff: Because at this point
NotSoFarOff: I think mead is a smarter wolf than to do what he did.
NotSoFarOff: Blatantly accusing iggy when many of us felt he was human.
NotSoFarOff: And for talisman and Tass to be two of those people...
NotSoFarOff: I don't know.
NotSoFarOff: Something's wrong.
bjstrattonIM: I see what you're saying.
bjstrattonIM: It makes sense.

(time passes)

NotSoFarOff: Me and tps are analyzing the talisfoot convo
NotSoFarOff: something interesting
bjstrattonIM: Hmm?
NotSoFarOff: TasselFoot (10:10:53 PM): there were alot of games in a row were i was a wolf
TasselFoot (10:10:55 PM): like 4/6
TasselFoot (10:11:04 PM): i think the afro vs tass thing started before 21
TasselFoot (10:11:11 PM): it went on for about 5 games
TasselFoot (10:11:27 PM): shut up. 21 would have been 5 games.
bjstrattonIM: Yeah, I saw that.
NotSoFarOff: He says shutup at the end when talisman said nothing at all.
bjstrattonIM: And wondered what the deal was.
NotSoFarOff: Them being wolves together is seeming more likely the more I think about it.
bjstrattonIM: Hmm.
bjstrattonIM: How about I present this?
bjstrattonIM: It'll keep you and Tps on the downlow.
bjstrattonIM: I'm already in their spotlight.
bjstrattonIM: And you two did more thinking than I did.
bjstrattonIM: If I die it won't matter.
NotSoFarOff: well
NotSoFarOff: I already IMed them asking about each other
NotSoFarOff: So if they're wolves, they know already.
bjstrattonIM: You asked them about that part of the convo?
NotSoFarOff: I asked what they thought about each other.
NotSoFarOff: They both said human.
bjstrattonIM: Did you ask either of them about anyone else?
bjstrattonIM: Well, either way.
NotSoFarOff: Nope.
bjstrattonIM: That actually helps because it could serve toward your death at night.
NotSoFarOff: It doesn't matter, because this is going public anyway.
bjstrattonIM: If you were killed Night 3 that owuld be a serious deviation from the current pattern.
NotSoFarOff: What they don't know is who I talked to about it.
NotSoFarOff: (ps I talked to you eb and tps)
bjstrattonIM: k
NotSoFarOff: So it'd be best for me to go public.
bjstrattonIM: But if someone other than you goes public and you get wolfed instead
bjstrattonIM: That'll look really weird.
bjstrattonIM: If not me, then Tps.
NotSoFarOff: Or if we don't say anything and I get wolfed
NotSoFarOff: Then you'll know.
NotSoFarOff: another thing
NotSoFarOff: NotSoFarOff (3:02:01 PM): all game between the two
NotSoFarOff (3:02:04 PM): it's been like
NotSoFarOff (3:02:18 PM): would you like me to shove my cock in your mouth any further?
NotSoFarOff (3:02:21 PM): sure please do
Tps7910 (3:02:22 PM): I know.
NotSoFarOff (3:02:23 PM): okay your turn
bjstrattonIM: lmao
bjstrattonIM: Well
bjstrattonIM: If we don't say anything and you get wolfed
bjstrattonIM: That's one less person supporting the idea. >_>
NotSoFarOff: The only reason I wanted to wait and not go public is to see the night 3 kill.
NotSoFarOff: But that's meaningless now that I talked to talisman and tass about each other.
bjstrattonIM: Also
bjstrattonIM: Did anyone else find it kinda weird that one or both (forget which) just kinda brushed off other people's suspicions of them?
bjstrattonIM: talisman acted like he didn't even notice.
NotSoFarOff: Who said something about talisman?
bjstrattonIM: Hmm
bjstrattonIM: Well
bjstrattonIM: It wasn't something directly about talisman
bjstrattonIM: It was eb's Page 9 post.
bjstrattonIM: About how Tass and talis should start watching out for jTWG votes the longer they're alive.
bjstrattonIM: And talisman's next post has nothing to do with it at all.
bjstrattonIM: It's almost like he's saying "yeah yeah whatever moving on"
bjstrattonIM: Tass' last paragraph deals with it
bjstrattonIM: And is basically "That's pretty stupid and irrelevant and I don't want any attention so all of you read talisman's post"
bjstrattonIM: I'll let you decide what to do, if anything
bjstrattonIM: I'll follow your lead
bjstrattonIM: I have to go to SAS to pick up my paycheck, bbl

-the tps kill. Someone who was either really smart or paying a decent amount of attention to the game or both would have had to have made this kill. I know I'm human, hans is, and tass most likely is, so of all the people who were smart and/or paying attention that leaves kilga. True, it could have just been a random kill by wolf/wolves just picking names out of a hat, but I don't think so.

Actually, I think someone who was really smart and paying a decent amount of attention to this game would've gone after Hans again. The nature of his posts on Day 3 lead me to believe that Vash was the guardian. If I was a wolf I would've gone right back to Hans on Night 4, because the risk was worth the reward of killing the only known human given the probability that we lynched the guardian.

[HansSky]

I am torn. On one side, I have Tass and talisman, whom I've been looking at all game. I simply cannot get over the fact that everything they've done this game I am suspicious of. In my opinion, we have lynched three humans in a row, in which Tass and talisman have taken a VERY active part in doing. Every suspicion they throw out I disagree with, including the mead scenario which gives them +4236488 wolf points.

On the other hand, talisman makes a very good case against Kilga. It would be very easy to go along with everything I was saying and just kinda slip under my arm while I order him around. I thought of this before, but I never had to make a critical decision about it until now.

It's either tass/talis or kilga/ld. Which means we have to go one way or the other. The reason I am so incredibly pissed off is because since Day 2, I had a plan that would guarantee the humans victory if everything went the way it planned. I wanted lynchings to go in this order: talis-tass-ld-kilga. But since tass and luck fucked me over big time, we don't have the luxury to play it safe anymore. We have today, tomorrow and that's probably it. It's likely that at least one person with a phantom will be left, which gives the wolves an open field to steal the game. Eb, Kilga and ld all have phantoms, plus Kilga is thrown out as a wolf, so he WILL be kept alive to the end of the game no matter what. But I feel that there are two sets of possible wolves, so a third day doesn't even matter anyway.

One or the other. I don't know yet.

[talisman]

Finally, the missing piece. I was wondering why kilga would try to wolf hans, knowing that hans would be instrumental in keeping up the pressure on me or tass. I assumed that it was as a part of a frame, and it looks like it is:

bjstrattonIM: Did you ask either of them about anyone else?
bjstrattonIM: Well, either way.
NotSoFarOff: Nope.
bjstrattonIM: That actually helps because it could serve toward your death at night.
NotSoFarOff: It doesn't matter, because this is going public anyway.
bjstrattonIM: If you were killed Night 3 that owuld be a serious deviation from the current pattern.
NotSoFarOff: What they don't know is who I talked to about it.
NotSoFarOff: (ps I talked to you eb and tps)
bjstrattonIM: k
NotSoFarOff: So it'd be best for me to go public.
bjstrattonIM: But if someone other than you goes public and you get wolfed instead
bjstrattonIM: That'll look really weird.
bjstrattonIM: If not me, then Tps.
NotSoFarOff: Or if we don't say anything and I get wolfed
NotSoFarOff: Then you'll know.

Kilga attacks hans, not caring if it goes through (in fact probably suspecting it won't) because either way he knows that even if no one implicates tass or me with it, it will keep at least one vote alive against me or tass, and he'll be able to cruise through in the background, riding hans' coattails.

----

Now about some of kilga's points...

you already know that I think the two points argument is kind of flawed because I perceive fish to be a twger, not a jtwger. But whatever.

Your second rebuttal: ok so maybe you were just saying sorry in advance... I still think it smells fishy.

Third rebuttal: this is a sidestep... I wasn't criticizing your support at all. I was saying that it's just the right amount of support on a player that no one cares about as much and places you in the right spot between deep analysis and random voting, either of which can draw too much attention if you're a wolf. Obviously you can reject this argument by saying "well I'm not a wolf so there" but I just wanted to reiterate my point.

Now, about going after hans again. I think that at this point in the game, if you're a wolf and you see that me and tass are on the ropes... you keep the other boxer in the ring so that you don't have to throw your own punches. A guaranteed human making your arguments for you is way better than you having to make them yourself. It's one of the reasons I don't think hans will die tonight, either (though that depends on whether or not he changes his mind) even though the guardian might very well be dead. (btw I disagree about vash... though I suppose it's possible. Would vash be good enough to know to guard hans? It just seems like hans would have fought back a little harder, earlier when vash was under attack. Maybe not, maybe he wasn't around.)

[Kilgamayan]

Kilga attacks hans, not caring if it goes through (in fact probably suspecting it won't) because either way he knows that even if no one implicates tass or me with it, it will keep at least one vote alive against me or tass, and he'll be able to cruise through in the background, riding hans' coattails.

So you're saying that I attacked Hans with the intention of keeping him around to vote for you guys? Either you misphrased something or you're just making stuff up. >_>

you already know that I think the two points argument is kind of flawed because I perceive fish to be a twger, not a jtwger. But whatever.

So do I, but as my theory stated, the jTWGers may view him as a jTWGer, so what you and I see him as doesn't really matter.

Your second rebuttal: ok so maybe you were just saying sorry in advance... I still think it smells fishy.

damn i just took a shower too

Third rebuttal: this is a sidestep... I wasn't criticizing your support at all. I was saying that it's just the right amount of support on a player that no one cares about as much and places you in the right spot between deep analysis and random voting, either of which can draw too much attention if you're a wolf. Obviously you can reject this argument by saying "well I'm not a wolf so there" but I just wanted to reiterate my point.

How is it a sidestep? I see you suggest a reason for why I did something, I offer a different reason. Unless you're referring to what you did in the first place I'm not sure what you mean by this at all.

For the record, I will never seriously defend myself by flatly telling everyone I'm not a wolf. It doesn't serve any purpose at all.

Now, about going after hans again. I think that at this point in the game, if you're a wolf and you see that me and tass are on the ropes... you keep the other boxer in the ring so that you don't have to throw your own punches. A guaranteed human making your arguments for you is way better than you having to make them yourself. It's one of the reasons I don't think hans will die tonight, either (though that depends on whether or not he changes his mind) even though the guardian might very well be dead. (btw I disagree about vash... though I suppose it's possible. Would vash be good enough to know to guard hans? It just seems like hans would have fought back a little harder, earlier when vash was under attack. Maybe not, maybe he wasn't around.)

Except I would hope Hans is smart enough to take everything I say with a grain of salt no matter his personal beliefs, and if I say or do something weird he'll call me out on it. Clearly this is the case, as he has, understandably, hopped onto the fence.

If I were to employ this strategy I'd do it with someone dumb who wouldn't notice what was going on.

Not much else to say here. I will admit I do appreciate having people around who agree with me, although as such I'm irritated that Tps died.

[talisman]

You're right, I wasn't clear there. What I was trying to say was something like this: you attack hans. If he dies, you can still keep up the pressure on tass and me by posting that convo, and it's a good frame. If he's saved, it's not a big loss because he doesn't suspect you that much and he's still wary of tass and me.

Except I would hope Hans is smart enough to take everything I say with a grain of salt no matter his personal beliefs, and if I say or do something weird he'll call me out on it. Clearly this is the case, as he has, understandably, hopped onto the fence.

If I were to employ this strategy I'd do it with someone dumb who wouldn't notice what was going on.

The problem I have with that statement is that it's not really your pick who you employ the strategy on. It's not like you could decide "oh I want it to be mini" because mini isn't all gung-ho after tass or me nor is he a guaranteed human. I'm suggesting that almost out of necessity you had to keep hans in the game, because his words would carry so much more strength... especially towards convincing the people on the sideline (aka mini eb nforcer).

[Kilgamayan]

I'm saying more that if it was someone dumb I would employ that strategy and if it was someone smart I wouldn't. While I can't control who's in charge, I can control whether I want to try it or not.

[Tasselfoot]

in case anyone tried to IM me since about 2pm est... for some reason AIM Express didn't log out proerly and I didn't get any IMs that were sent to me.

So... IM me again, and I'm sorry for ignoring you.

[lightdarkness]

ROFL, Now i'm even more convinced with Random.org's guesstimations.

[Tasselfoot]

care to explain that LD? cause you've been about as helpful as anal warts this game... and using random.org is not helpful for anything pertinent.

[HansSky]

LD If you want to be useful put your vote on talisman instead of tass.