TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

70 (1381-1400)

@Zenith (1388) No it's not worth speculating. It's a 1-shot, and Vanilla towns can't convict. The only helpful situation would be if he triggered a bulletproof

Now that I think about it, the fact that Arnt was slightly suspicious but not at the top of wagons at EoD makes him a convenient target for wolves. If he has a powerrole that isn't Gregory (one-shot bulletproof), he dies. He probably won't use the power himself because of the same fact that he had some suspicions, but enough to make him "safe" from n1 kill.
Perhaps the wolves were playing with the roles in mind? It's a big shot in the dark though

@Zenith (1392) Explain your vote? Just out of inactivity or frustration?

@sunsfan (1394) Why do think SK would want a wolf dead? So there are less people with kill power to proc the one-shot bulletproof? The thing is though wolves are always going to have kill power unless they are eliminated. And if all the wolves are dead, I think that makes you more vulnerable in the day.

I'm just trying to understand your logic here.

@sunsfan (1397) I'm okay usually after day1, tinfoiling my hardest right now


71 (1401-1420)

@sunfan (1401) What about Gradiant makes him a good wolf?

@sunfan (1402) What about that post made you swing town for him immensely? I'd like to hear the thought process.

@sunfan (1409) I make my vote on 1158. Let's start at 1042, the kitb. Up to this point, I have a null read on Charu. He has these long summaries coupled with reads and read changes, which I liked, and seems to go through his though process. At the same time, I felt like it was possible he was trying really hard to cover his tracks(similar theory to what Mashi was saying earlier). Now I read his posts and what do I see? He's not really asking provoking questions, he's hardly giving reads, in my eyes. And then what? he says he "tilted" as [what I believed as] an excuse to what happened. Again, I couldn't emphasize with the change in behavior, so I the vote is placed.

@YoshL (1414) I truely believed the claim was a shitpost. He kept the gig going farther in, but I always thought it was just a continuation of the shitpost. It's interesting to consider the psychological consequences on the other players. How many people are going to take this seriously? How many people are going to have just the slightest bit of hesitation?

I have a definitive "not me" to both of those. I would rather focus on his EoD, which is still just bizarre to me. The only redeeming feature I had about it was poke on reactions for the Zenith, but it's pretty easy to craft that kind of response. I also didn't consider the unvote that occured after a vote count, which also helps him a little, but not enough for me to swing him to town lean for me.

He's also not here hurr. I'm watching TI and playing man you can do it too :'(

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

With a post like this, I have no idea why Arnt was targeted unless someone had some crazy insight that he was actually a role which I'm not finding clear

This post alone would've had Arnt pinned on a lynch or forced to claim to not be lynched, so I find his death extremely bizarre at the moment...

if there's one thing the night kills sure succeeded in, it's confusing our reads

i'm kind of lacking on wolf candidates if i exclude inactives that i want answers from

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

[QUOTE=Wineandbread;4464240]
@sunsfan (1394) Why do think SK would want a wolf dead? So there are less people with kill power to proc the one-shot bulletproof? The thing is though wolves are always going to have kill power unless they are eliminated. And if all the wolves are dead, I think that makes you more vulnerable in the day.

I'm just trying to understand your logic here.
[/qoute]

So

as the SK, you want to kill the wolves before you kill town, usually. Everything is situational blah blah blah, its generally the better play to try and kill wolves early.

as the SK, you have no friends in the game. You have to kill both town and wolves until its you and one other person left alive, and, depending on the mod or the setup, you sometimes still don't win as the SK if the other person is a wolf.

The SK is, without a doubt in my mind, the hardest role for town to find if the SK is competent (see what Xiz did in my large game for an example of this). If you just honestly look for wolves, you will appear townie, which allows you to blend right in. So killing wolves first doesn't really make you more vulnerable during the day inherently because you should be appearing townie.

The SK has a few things going for them, right? They can choose between bulletproof or unblockable/trackable kills. Lets talk about these.

Starting with strongman/ninja kills, these are pretty good, but its pretty unlikely for you to be blocked and it to matter to the roleblocker/investigator, because the possibility that the SK could be unblockable/untrackable will always be in their mind when they get their checks, or if SK chooses bulletproof, that the presence of Manfred could skew a tracker/watcher's results. Not very valuable, but better than the bulletproof imo.

Bulletproof is always pretty shitty for the SK unless combined with other features (At least they know if they get shot if I'm interpreting the OP correctly). The wolves are likely to be the ones killing the SK during the night (because they want to kill people who are appearing townie, and the SK almost always appears townie), so if they shoot someone, and that person lives, and they know that the person sending the kill was not roleblocked, it means one of two things:
they shot the serial killer (unless the SK is dead)
they shot Gregory Edgeworth (unless 3 other PRs are dead)

now, regardless of whichever scenario is true, the wolves are inclined to shoot that person again because both of those people are not people the wolves want in the game. So, the vest doesn't actually help the SK very much because there's very few scenarios where, numbers-wise, the SK can get away with being shot by the wolves and not get shot the next night.

Kinda helps block Maya from killing you but Maya isn't guaranteed in the game and if you get shot by Maya, so long as that player lives to the next day phase, they can claim that they were not blocked and shot you, and you probably get fucked as a result.

So, the SK is inclined to pick the first of the two powers. Which unfortunately makes them vulnerable to the wolfkill, but they're hardly protected with the vest.

So, the SK is most vulnerable during the night, most likely, so they want to eliminate that possibility. Its unlikely that the SK will kill all of the wolves (unless your name is Xiz or freakysnots), but its what they have to play towards.

There is something to be said about shooting towns in certain situations but I won't get into that.

I hope this answers your question.

@sunsfan (1397) I'm okay usually after day1, tinfoiling my hardest right now

what are you tinfoiling on, exactly?

@sunfan (1401) What about Gradiant makes him a good wolf?

I think he is very leveled, ie he's good at seeming townie when he rolls wolf, at least in my opinion. I do think he's not perfect ofc, but he's fooled me more than once

@sunfan (1402) What about that post made you swing town for him immensely? I'd like to hear the thought process.

I believe his emotion comes from a purely townie standpoint, basically. I think I'm pretty good at reading emotion in TWG, and the reasoning behind it is pretty simple, most of the time when someone is upset at the game, they're town. It was in line with what I expected from a townie there if they're getting pushed on for reasons that they feel are no longer relevant, if that makes sense.

@sunfan (1409) I make my vote on 1158. Let's start at 1042, the kitb. Up to this point, I have a null read on Charu. He has these long summaries coupled with reads and read changes, which I liked, and seems to go through his though process. At the same time, I felt like it was possible he was trying really hard to cover his tracks(similar theory to what Mashi was saying earlier). Now I read his posts and what do I see? He's not really asking provoking questions, he's hardly giving reads, in my eyes. And then what? he says he "tilted" as [what I believed as] an excuse to what happened. Again, I couldn't emphasize with the change in behavior, so I the vote is placed.

Do you not think that Charu would be tilted as town?

Again, what do you think of Charu's play just in general. Not in the context of this game, in the context of what do you expect from him as a player?

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

I don't get your wording on heart at all, or really understand what you're talking about with Xel

he sees me as null -> wolf lean and xel as just plain null, but he's also admitting to being lazy on really isoing us

i don't really see what's not to get

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

@sunsfan (1394) Why do think SK would want a wolf dead? So there are less people with kill power to proc the one-shot bulletproof? The thing is though wolves are always going to have kill power unless they are eliminated. And if all the wolves are dead, I think that makes you more vulnerable in the day.

I'm just trying to understand your logic here.

Eh?

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

Eh?

"less" might be accounting for Maya somehow but otherwise yeah that's weird

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

72 (1421-1440)

@sunfan (1423) what makes that trying too hard?

@Gradiant (1424) I latched onto tokzic because I was specifically looking at his behavior at EoD. You guys asked some good questions and poked holes in his posts, and I didn't have anything original to add. What I'd rather do though is instead just reiterating things you guys already said, take a look at other people instead.

Am I still suspicious of MML? Certainly, but not as much as tokzic.

Though if I think about it now, maybe pressuring MML would be a better course of action since tokzic isn't here to respond/react to anything..

You mention that you like Zenith's vote on island, but you don't really care that he didn't say anything other than the vote? I find it odd that you glossed over this even if you do this island is scum.

@Zenith (1425) You and I are probably both pressuring people who aren't here to respond to it, rip
I think the rationale is good though, this voids my last statement about your vote (idk why you didn't add it on the vote of your post though)

@sunfan (1429) The "repercussions of the wagons" can be rephrased as "What kind of reads can be garnered if <x> is lynched and turns green?"
Or even turns red, or sk. Basically "what new do we know based on who voted for who"

Sorry if that wasn't clear. Or if that somehow makes you think I'm wolf. I didn't end up thinking about it much honestly cause there was a lot of data and I forgot about it after cause of work/TI.

73 (1441-1448) (my postmark)

@Mashi (1441) Can you give me some examples of his posts that you treat as "noncommital", when you have a chance

@inDheart (1443) I would buy this if it weren't for the timeframe of his bouncing. I don't think he was really giving people a chance to "bite" onto suspicion, except that Zenith one. Like yeah it was EoD, but that's his own fault for not having enough time to properly push people. Plus he was just flinging poo with like hardly of his personal reasoning.

@sunfan (1445) What is "WIM?" And can you remind me (like a short summary or a few highlight posts) what makes you think MML is strong town? nvm covered in 1447
It seemed to me like you weren't really so strong on me being wolf or anything at all really, until just recently. Was it specifically that post about the repercussions that pushed my name off of the town/null cliff?
I really doubt I die here (AA FLASHBACKS INTENSIFY) but I support my vote on Charu even if he ended up town. Maybe my most recent posts on my thinking will convince you.

Maybe it's just me but I don't see yoshl as strong antitown. Is you not understanding his play partially due to the "outsiders perspective"? And what exactly the difference between town and outsider perspective posts are supposed to be?

@sunfan (1447) what aspect of the VT claim were "believable?"
I'm not sketched by a "vigi" focus, but rather for ignorance of the number of wolves/lack of setup knowledge. It seems like a possible constructed lie to post.

K I'm sorta caught up now

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

(1455) This isn't a good argument, much like I don't like MML's post count theory. I think you're doing plenty though fam

(1464) No inDheart, he is probably #2. Refer to my post on Tokzic a few posts after that
I haven't liked MML because (1) low key alteration of gamesetup (3 -> 2 wolves), (2) unjustified reaction of Charu's death (well, he justified as being behind on reading b/c of long posts, idk how much I believe it), (3) some weird posts without much substance (yoshl and gradiant have done to poke holes, see everything after 1261)

(1468) I will be convinced if/when he shows up to defend himself instead of laissez-faire. I'd like your consolidated thoughts on me as well while you're disagreeing with the people on it

(1473) Honestly I see that this jump in logic looks really bad / deflection-y but I can say I really tunneled hard on how weird tokzic was playing. I also cover in a previous post why I wanted not to focus on just MML

(1475) Lovers = town lean I suppose? Can you elaborate a bit on your view of mashi
(1476) as gone as tokzic is

(1477) ofc he'd claim VT? I don't really see what that adds to your logic. No one wants to claim blue or red

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

"less" might be accounting for Maya somehow but otherwise yeah that's weird

My eh is not in regards to that

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

(1477) ofc he'd claim VT? I don't really see what that adds to your logic. No one wants to claim blue or red

if he claimed VT, then tried to use the strategy yoshl was describing, that would involve him backtracking and saying he actually had vigi powers. it might look more natural if he was pushed before into claiming VT, but in reality that fell out of his mouth voluntarily, so backtracking on that would look worse

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

My eh is not in regards to that

then what is it for? is it addressed by the following sentence?

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

(1475) Lovers = town lean I suppose? Can you elaborate a bit on your view of mashi

Lovers is just a joke in this sense, but Lovers is an actual role in the Mafia World so it just pleases the joke

Mashi's a generally hard-to-read player, but right now he's putting his standard work in except I'm a little shocked to not see a huge post from him. He likes big posts, and he's one of the few who pulls it off in a really good way that leads to more accurate reads.

He's definitely town lean aorn

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

I think Island needs to not only be pinged but I'm skeptical of him at the moment.

i support this

island, there are a few places where we don't understand the words coming out of your keyboard, please clarify

and why were you noncommittal for eod0

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

imo Wabby's reread and analysis is more town-sided than not

It's less reading out loud and more actually paying attention to what he caught up on and asking questions/opinion forming; it doesn't feel arbitrarily done

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

So

as the SK, you want to kill the wolves before you kill town, usually. Everything is situational blah blah blah, its generally the better play to try and kill wolves early.

as the SK, you have no friends in the game. You have to kill both town and wolves until its you and one other person left alive, and, depending on the mod or the setup, you sometimes still don't win as the SK if the other person is a wolf.

The SK is, without a doubt in my mind, the hardest role for town to find if the SK is competent [b](see what Xiz did in my large game for an example of this)[b]. If you just honestly look for wolves, you will appear townie, which allows you to blend right in. So killing wolves first doesn't really make you more vulnerable during the day inherently because you should be appearing townie.

The SK has a few things going for them, right? They can choose between bulletproof or unblockable/trackable kills. Lets talk about these.

Starting with strongman/ninja kills, these are pretty good, but its pretty unlikely for you to be blocked and it to matter to the roleblocker/investigator, because the possibility that the SK could be unblockable/untrackable will always be in their mind when they get their checks, or if SK chooses bulletproof, that the presence of Manfred could skew a tracker/watcher's results. Not very valuable, but better than the bulletproof imo.

Bulletproof is always pretty shitty for the SK unless combined with other features (At least they know if they get shot if I'm interpreting the OP correctly). The wolves are likely to be the ones killing the SK during the night (because they want to kill people who are appearing townie, and the SK almost always appears townie), so if they shoot someone, and that person lives, and they know that the person sending the kill was not roleblocked, it means one of two things:
they shot the serial killer (unless the SK is dead)
they shot Gregory Edgeworth (unless 3 other PRs are dead)

now, regardless of whichever scenario is true, the wolves are inclined to shoot that person again because both of those people are not people the wolves want in the game. So, the vest doesn't actually help the SK very much because there's very few scenarios where, numbers-wise, the SK can get away with being shot by the wolves and not get shot the next night.

Kinda helps block Maya from killing you but Maya isn't guaranteed in the game and if you get shot by Maya, so long as that player lives to the next day phase, they can claim that they were not blocked and shot you, and you probably get fucked as a result.

So, the SK is inclined to pick the first of the two powers. Which unfortunately makes them vulnerable to the wolfkill, but they're hardly protected with the vest.

So, the SK is most vulnerable during the night, most likely, so they want to eliminate that possibility. Its unlikely that the SK will kill all of the wolves (unless your name is Xiz or freakysnots), but its what they have to play towards.

There is something to be said about shooting towns in certain situations but I won't get into that.

I hope this answers your question.

Is the bolded a subtle call on Xiz as your prime SK suspect?
I guess I believed bulletproof to be better than strongman/ninja kills. If I were SK (CONDEMNING INTENSIFIES), I wouldn't gamble on being rando-shot cause then you're just straight-up dead.
If you have bulletproof and wolves proc it, they may not necessarily have to kill you right away. If the game is early on, I would think the wolves want to keep you alive to thin the herd. If the wolves are confident in their play, I see why the wolves would want him dead right away though.

I don't think getting blocked is the end of the world, because the kill statements don't give any indication who killed who. You can be roleblocked on either side. Now that I think about it though, roleblocked gives a lot of information so I guess you'd still end up fucked.

Just my newbie logic, I guess, but that was why I called you out on your logic. It helps, thanks.

what are you tinfoiling on, exactly?

Reasons behind the kills mostly, see my previous posts

I believe his emotion comes from a purely townie standpoint, basically. I think I'm pretty good at reading emotion in TWG, and the reasoning behind it is pretty simple, most of the time when someone is upset at the game, they're town. It was in line with what I expected from a townie there if they're getting pushed on for reasons that they feel are no longer relevant, if that makes sense.

My vote on Charu was mostly emotion-based, and it seems like people don't like that I did that, so I just wanted to see what made your case different.

I think he is very leveled, ie he's good at seeming townie when he rolls wolf, at least in my opinion. I do think he's not perfect ofc, but he's fooled me more than once

Maybe you should look into the games where he did fool you?

Do you not think that Charu would be tilted as town?

Again, what do you think of Charu's play just in general. Not in the context of this game, in the context of what do you expect from him as a player?

I prefer to discuss what happened in the game but:

No I don't expect him to be tilted. I don't know Charu as well as some of you do, but I don't remember seeing it before. Struck me as different and weird.

My analysis looked right in my own eyes, that's all I can really say about Charu. I expected him to keep a level head and brush it off and not take it personally, and he clinged to it. It looked more right than any of the other wagons to me. But feel free to keep bombarding me, I'm practically just listening to TI at this point