TWG CII: 0rbs of power

[The Blue Blur]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

Oh, there goes my QUALITY touch screen.

Yes,it takes that long to compose that amount of texts, because I need to have at LEAST 2 separate windows open, switch and scroll (slowly) between the two constantly, work the forum control as slowly and meticulously as a Galapagos tortoise walking through a minefield to insert relevant formatting and links, and all of that with a finicky screenthat spazzes out wheneverit feels like trolling me. As you can imagine, this is very unpleasant, which makes me more easily distracted also.

I'm going to take a break before I make my second post, because this is bad for my health. Dry, strained eyes and high blood pressure.see you in the morning.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

smartphone twg on ffr forums sounds brutal lol.

I was referring to #293 when I said that Xiz had posted 3 wolf reads early. I know cedo's name was in parentheses and questions marks and whatever, but I assumed "vigi this person" meant "I think this person is a wolf."

In short, the case seems weak and cherry-picked, as in what applies in the push for Xizdoesn't seem to apply outside of it. This is roughly why I began to give Xiz a townlean, and think that the wagon on him contains wolves. In the next post I will attempt a voter analysis to give a clearer picture of my suspicions.

wolves, plural? there are 2 wolves left; do you think the Xiz wagon contained both?

[The Blue Blur]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

smartphone twg on ffr forums sounds brutal lol.

More like dumbphone twg, dohoho.

I was referring to #293 when I said that Xiz had posted 3 wolf reads early. I know cedo's name was in parentheses and questions marks and whatever, but I assumed "vigi this person" meant "I think this person is a wolf."

Ah, I see. That's plausible. And it could've just been failure to differentiate, since it was primarily a call for vigi orb discussion, but putting cedo on the chopping block when he didn't get a chance to say much of anything is a fair point against Xiz, even if he wasn't confident or pushing for that specifically. You'll see that my upcoming analysis treats you favorably, since you seem to put some actual thought into your votes, flip flops be damned. (Kind of hard to believe this is only Day 2, i keep forgetting that was day one!)

wolves, plural? there are 2 wolves left; do you think the Xiz wagon contained both?

Hmm. I'd say it's likely. Mostly because I got the vibe that it was seen as an agreeable and inconsequential lynch. I can't bring myself to say I'd stake the game on it, though, but I rarely have that kind of confidence in myself.

Anyways, BLUE HEDGEPIG AT WORK BZZ BZZ

[The Blue Blur]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

Hmm. I'd say it's likely. Mostly because I got the vibe that it was seen as an agreeable and inconsequential lynch, there fore the wolves would be less cautious about contributing to it.

forgot to include that

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

I think I would have died if the 3rd wolf wasn't AFK. I believe 2 were on me. However I could be wrong. Anyway im gonna go pee then write a big post, now that I am no longer distracted from the official.

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

The thoughts of Xiz: (So far)

2. Xiz

So what describe Xiz's behavior, eh?! What has been happening here? Okay time to clear up some questions that I have yet to answer. N1 I decided to go crazy, obvi. I started my toxic posts early (with jrodd who got caught up in it) for one primary reason, (and only one person was able to figure out) - to have the seer orb used on me. The reason for this was way too risky, which almost got me killed. Or, almost vigi'd by charu. But the reason why I wanted the seer orb used on me early was to create an alliance really early, after me being a 'confirmed' green. Which, on the contrary isn't fully green because the seer holder could by lying (in the case Netjet) about me. If I can get anyone to trust me early day one, or reveal to me so the blue would not have to come out, then I'd be happy to die for the blue. Sadly, this is not go my way, or as planned at all.

4. j-rodd123 There are only two points I wanna make about jrodd that really make him look green for me. I strongly feel he is human from the constant and frequent posts he made against me n1 when I was in my toxic phase. Second, thesunfan told me "I strongly, strongly belive that J-rodd is green. If he is not, I will no longer play TWG" (Said in google hangout) I'm willing to trust sunfan on this. While he has dropped in activity as much as before, I have done the same. This day has been a drag, because of the Offical along with well, not much new information has really struck out. He is thinking like me this game. I'm not worried about him.

5. FreakySnots His dedication to the thread and posts is something to note. When we skype chat back and forth, he makes some strong claims against the wolves that I would consider suicide for a wolf player. I'm not concerned about Freaky.

7. yo man im awesome This little bugger. What are you doing YMIA. I can't put my finger on you but if so it would be the middle finger. I don't trust you at all, as I said earlier from your activity and presence withing the google hangout, how none of your thoughts this game are your own, and how defensive a lot of your posts are, until you decided to do the 'fine kill me what do i care' approach, which is not needed this early from how few votes are on you right now. Your plays are offsetting, like your voting onto TPS (ultra last second) and how little you have really gave into this game. When there is fighting or discussion about anyone else, you sit back, think of a good answer and perhaps (but must likely don't) post. However, you post immediately after a tactical question about the game, or a post directed directly at you. I don't get it.

8. Charu My little snivy. Oh, how your fangs drip blood from our allies. You are a tricky one to tackle. You have asked why I think you are red, but I have yet to give you a real reason (mostly because it has yet to really track water for me) Freakysnots got into my head about you, and arose some really interesting points that I think NEED to be addressed.
- Sunfan told everything to netjet
- Charu told netjet he had the orb, but didn't want to be revealed to be 'manipulated'
- Charu seems like he is playing a wolf the first time I am playing a wolf, goes hard and narrow visioned onto one target (in this case, on me) and while open to speculation, still stays strong unless of a bandwagon vote change onto someone else.
Overall, i'm about 70% wolf read on Charu. All this could be Freakysnots getting in my head though.

10. runescapedude1126 He has played this game perfectly in terms of being neutral. I tip my hat to you. There isn't much anyone can really pull from him besides the "omg he is too neutral guys, he must be a wolf" strat. I'm not willing to bandwagon vote him yet, or at all. I haven't really been considering him that high on my radar, so it could be me just being stupid. I'd like to know more about him before the phase ends though.

11. Silvuh This guy posts very infrequently, but when he does he makes a strong point. While I am annoyed he doesn't throw himself into the thread more to make more discussions, he makes solid claims against every player, and his thoughts which seem well thought out. He is green though due to his tell with sunfan, revealing netjet. Would a wolf really kill another wolf to earn free passage through the game? Nah. Don't think so between a netjet - silvuh combo. Silvuh told sunfan that the seer orb will reveal blue, NOT green, which thesunfan didn't catch until silvuh revealed it to him. It makes no sense that silvuh would be a red.
12. danceguy117 When he was thinking I was a wolf, in google hangout I saw him getting angry because he started to think I was green. Saw it in his face. A red wouldn't immediately react like that. Green.

13. Brilliant Dynamite Neon His AFK-ness worries me. Granted, he has an excuse for that, yada-yada. However, what really raises flags for me is his fluff amount. One of the questions I am struggin' with is, I had 20 min's where I COULD have died when I was one away. Why did I not? Was it because no other greens wanted to hop on? Or was it because one of the other reds, such as BDN was AFK and couldn't vote me for the insta? The bandwagon fell so the reds had to abandon it before it got too suspicious by placing it on other random votes... creating a really weird 2-2-3-2 type vote spread before the netjet catch. I don't like it. Sorry my furry buddy. I sense a wolf under that cute fur.


Final thoughts:

1) I think out of YMIA or Charu, one is a wolf. I doubt both. I say will kill one of them today. I push for Charu still.
2) I think that this bandwagon on me right now is really, really stupid and should be screaming some wolf reads to you all. If you really think I am still wolf, then okay do what you want. But it's started to become really questionable now that you want to create another wagon for me.
3) Let's get talking. Day ends today. I want to see posts. No more lurking.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

I would like to hear from everyone who suspect Xiz after this post

Alight, I'll give you the rundown of my thought process. Because for some reason, I have a feeling you're looking at me due to:

What's more, this actually does happen with Charu and RSD, but nobody gets on their case, despite them both being relative non-entities N1.

Anyways, onwards to my thought process, dohoho!

---

I still find him suspicious, but not so much anymore after what has happened at the end of Day 1 and Night 2.

When he was making a case and planning and calling to do this and that while still saying he's a human late in the day phase, kind of made me want to lean human to him as I kept my vote on him the entire day before Silvuh found the wolf. The reason I didn't change my vote was because I thought to myself and explained to people that if Xiz was actually human, it would give us that edge to go and seer Netjet since his plan would have some weight on it.

However, since, ya know, we found out Netjet was a wolf before this happened, he became way more human in my eyes. I casted a vigi vote on him night 2 because I just didn't believe him still. Now though, I think it's sort of improbable that he is a wolf with the way he's been acting.

His vote towards me this phase doesn't really concern me with his wolf or human vibe. If anything, makes me concern with freakysnots vibe. I don't know why and I don't have any evidence to claim, but I just feel he set Xiz up to vote for me. Just something, a hunch if you will.

Actually, sort of surprised people are going to Runescape. I gave my thoughts to danceguy on him. He's an odd cookie, but there's really nothing from him that I've seen that makes me want him dead.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

8. Charu My little snivy. Oh, how your fangs drip blood from our allies. You are a tricky one to tackle. You have asked why I think you are red, but I have yet to give you a real reason (mostly because it has yet to really track water for me) Freakysnots got into my head about you, and arose some really interesting points that I think NEED to be addressed.
- Sunfan told everything to netjet
- Charu told netjet he had the orb, but didn't want to be revealed to be 'manipulated'
- Charu seems like he is playing a wolf the first time I am playing a wolf, goes hard and narrow visioned onto one target (in this case, on me) and while open to speculation, still stays strong unless of a bandwagon vote change onto someone else.
Overall, i'm about 70% wolf read on Charu. All this could be Freakysnots getting in my head though.

Holy shit, my hunch was right.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

imo there's no way this lynch should be outside of:

YMIA
Charu
runescapedude
BDN
freakysnots

^ no particular order.

one key question to ask about Charu here: could he be this good of a liar? I'm struggling with this question right now.

[freakysnots]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

Just stepping in to say that let's lynch yoman this phase.

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

freaky

[Silvuh]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

I'm just going to make a quick post to say that I will be here tonight. I'm looking forward to being a part of the conversation, and we do need to discuss this more. The lynch today determines how the orbs will be distributed during the upcoming night phase.

It's on my apartment-mate's whim that we decide to spend a weekend back home in Austin, because he's the one with the car. I'll be on the road for about four-or-so hours soon, and I'll be able to post from home.

Leaving y'all with a few numbers for now, about orb distribution:

Probability for six humans and two wolves:

H (3/4) H (5/7) H (2/3)
                W (1/3)
        W (2/7) H (5/6)
                W (1/6)
W (1/4) H (6/7) H (5/6)
                W (1/6)
        W (1/7) H 1

P(HHH) = 5/14 = 35.7%
P(HHW) + P(HWH) + P(WHH) = 15/28 = 53.6%
P(HWW) + P(WHW) + P(WWH) = 3/28 = 10.7%

Probability for seven humans and one wolf:

H (7/8) H (6/7) H (5/6)
                W (1/6)
        W (1/7) H 1
W (1/8) H 1     H 1

P(HHH) = 5/8 = 62.5%
P(HHW) + P(HWH) + (WHH) = 3/8 = 37.5%

The numbers aren't that surprising, I suppose. If we lynch a wolf today (half of the remaining wolves), that close to doubles our chances of keeping all the orbs away from them.

[The Blue Blur]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

Here comes Part 2:;

Rocking the Vote

First, lets get the confirmed out of the way.

thesunfan: Votes @250. Our dearly departed tracker. We miss him more with each passing day. Nothing really to say here sinc he was the first vote, which was likely a safety.

TPS222: Votes @368. Perhaps my biggest source of doubt. His vote wss unsubstantiated, and that along with the inconsistencies of his play let me to join the vigi wagon on him. Of course, we were dead wrong. This is why I can't be sure and this is more a "look at closely" thing at this point in time, rather than "lynch/vigi at first opportunity". I expect, nay, WELCOME counter arguments and such from the people I name here, as it can only help us going forward in discerning who is more worthy of what action.

Now to the action.

YMIA: Votes @254, which kind of immediately irks me, because he explicitly states that he's never seen that kind of play from Xiz before, human or wolf - so why immediately vote for a presumed null tell? I dunno, this sounds like something that would've been better addressed over IM than by putting ane vote on him. Then comes Xiz's riposte soon after §256. One can argue this is later contradicted, since after this post he takes a markedly NONaggressive approach, and this would be a fair point against him...but it's never brought up. Ever. Not by YMIA, not by anyone. And considering the circumstances, I'd play more conservatively too if I was brought so close to a narrowly-averted lunch that early in the game. It really can't be held against him for trying to avoid a lynch, since that's what everyone is naturally gonna do.

it's also worth noting that he lists 5PS as a "top suspect" mid p20, but right before that votes...me? It doesn't add up. IIRC there were no votes whatsoever on TPS at the time, and very little discussion about him, so it would have been entirely acceptable for you to put some pressure on him and get theconversation flowing. it strikes me as overly safe play. Finally, there's your response to dancguy raising this point against you @422, which is a pretty weak deflection. It's inconsistent with you truly believing the information was important to the town IMO, and in your response to j-rodd, I can't help but think that you might be soft-clearing Netjet.

[The Blue Blur]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

Okay, the 4g flaked out at the absolute WORST fucking time. 2/3 of my post is lost and is COMPLETELY unrecoverable so fuck it, I'm done, totaply fucking done with this stupid fucking bullshit, no more fucks given

Runescapedude needs to go. Agree with ne or not, who gives a shit.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CII: 0rbs of power

ouch that is rough. did you say you'll have desktop/laptop access soon?

runescapedude is at L-2 right now I think, and a ton of people haven't weighed in yet so I'll move to a semi-safety for now. RSD lynch doesn't look bad to me at all though.

BDN