TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Humans Win)

**FishFishRevolution** · 10-4-2005, 03:37 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

"No trace of em." Wolverine slashed at the wall in frustration.

"Alright, Wolverine, you're the last one here, now wer have everyone together." Cyclops took this opportunity to speak to the group of X-Men. "Let's be frank here people. Four of you are the intruders, and four of you are hidden allies. The only way to find out who's who is to strictly monitor each other's behavior. You know each other, study speech paterns, movements, everything! We have to find and destroy the intruders. Come foreward with your suspicions once you have them, and we'll take the necessary actions."

"Who put you in charge?" Bishop took a long drag on his cigarette, then flicked the butt at the speaker. "I have a mind to get rid of you right now just for trying to put leashes on all of us."

Cyclops ignored the gun pointed at him, and was about to continue when he noticed there were only 16 people listening to him. It took him a minute to figure out exactly who was missing.

"Wait a second guys. You're sure there's no one else wandering around anywhere else in the Acadamy?" Cyclops looked alarmed.

"Positive, Nightcrawler and I check it twice." Beast replied quickly as Nightcrawler nodded in agreement.

"Wolverine, are you--wait! Wolverine's gone now too!"

"Nope, but Storm is."

"That's what I was afraid of, where is she?!"

"Right here." Wolverine emerged from the shadows carring the lifeless body of storm, who had suffered several blows to the head and had torn clothing drenched in blood.

Jean Grey closed her eyes to try to fight back tears Iceman covered his mouth in horror. Jubilee expression was frozen in shock and fear. A faint "oh my" could be heard from Beast.

"No matter what, we have to find these villains before any more of us are taken down!" Shadowcat screamed, sounding more furious than Cyclops had been moments ago.

Wolverine set the body on the ground and walked away just as the rest began to crowd around it.

--

Storm/Torlock has been wolfed. Day 1 ends Thursday, October 6th, at 6:00PM EDT.

**aperson** · 10-4-2005, 03:47 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Alright listen up folks, Havoc and I were talking last night... and there's this neat little strategy to delve out as much information as possible.

Here's the deal: The morph comes forward, lists the four people they are choosing each night... Then, the guardian guards the morph that night and the morph posts the result the next day. If the role has transferred, then the new morph comes forward. If the role disappears we know at least 1 of the 4 was a wolf, if the morph dies we know 1 of the 4 was the master wolf.

Now, for this strategy to work both the morph and the guardian need to be alive. The chances of this are:
18 players - 4 wolves - 1 confirmed human (me), = 13 candidates. Of these, the guardian had a 1/13 chance to die, the morph had a 1/13 - (1/13 * 1/13) (chance of being guarded) chance of dying last night.

Collectively, that gives 7.7% + 7.1% = 14.8% chance that the guardian or morph has died last night. This plan, then, should work 85.2% of the time, pretty good odds. This is a ploy to give as much information to the humans as possible.

I'm not saying we institute this plan right away, there might be holes I've missed... But I'm bringing this out as a discussion for all of us folks rooting for the human side.

**Tasselfoot** · 10-4-2005, 03:53 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Hmm. My plan was slightly different.... but same basic idea.

Morph picked someone night 1... well, 4 people. Three things could have happened... seen a green, blue, or red.

If the morph saw a green: lost his powers, post here in the thread SAYING they were the morph, then contacting the 4 people they saw (NOT posting them in the thread) over AIM to figure out which is the new morph. Now, that gives a 2 person alliance.... and, should a wolf want to join the party, then the ex-morph will get 2 people telling them they are the morph, and clearly we'll now know 1 wolf out of 2... NOT a situation the wolves want to be in. Seems just plain dumb. So, 2 person alliance. Repeat each time a green is morphed.

If the morph saw a blue: Post in the thread saying they saw a blue, then contact the 4 people... again, just like before. Only this time, they are still the morph, so the guardian needs to guard them. alliance with a blue, ability to morph again.... good stuff.

If the morph saw a red: Trickiest. Honestly, it doesn't help the reds too much to know that the morph is dead. So, if that happened, they lost their powers. Post saying so... and post the 4 people. 1 of the 4 is a wolf.

If the morph saw the MW: couldn't have happened... only 1 person died. But, in the future, the morph will tell everyone else in the alliance the 4 people, so that should they get the MW and die, the others know 1/4 who the MW is.

**QreepyBORIS** · 10-4-2005, 03:53 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Just wondering, but if you count yourself as a confirmed human, then why not Havok, too?

**aperson** · 10-4-2005, 03:55 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Because I don't know Tass's role...
I know mine.

Regardless, I like Tass's idea better than mine. The daisy-chain alliance keeps the wolves from garnering important information on blues.

**Tps222** · 10-4-2005, 03:55 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Ok, well, on the wolfing. I talked to Torlock earlier today, and he acted very strangely. I'm not sure how many people he talked to, but that conversation screamed blue or red to me (i am assuming blue). It's possible that someone he talked to was a wolf.

Tps7910 (4:02:16 PM): Hey.
Torlock13 (4:02:17 PM): sup?
Tps7910 (4:02:28 PM): Nothing much.
Tps7910 (4:02:29 PM): You?
Torlock13 (4:02:32 PM): Just got home
Tps7910 (4:03:11 PM): Cool.
Tps7910 (4:03:21 PM): Your first TWG game.
Torlock13 (4:03:26 PM): I know.
Torlock13 (4:03:29 PM): I'm excited.
Tps7910 (4:03:36 PM): Did you get your role yet?
Torlock13 (4:03:39 PM): Yeah
Torlock13 (4:03:42 PM): I got on this morning.
Torlock13 (4:03:44 PM): About 5
Tps7910 (4:03:45 PM): I got a green, banshee.
Tps7910 (4:03:50 PM): Greens are so boring.
Torlock13 (4:03:54 PM): I know.
Tps7910 (4:03:55 PM):
Tps7910 (4:04:27 PM): Well, if you are a blue.
Tps7910 (4:04:32 PM): Don't do anything until
Tps7910 (4:04:40 PM): Tass posts his guide for blues on
day 1
Torlock13 (4:04:44 PM): Ok.
Torlock13 (4:04:45 PM): Thanks.
Tps7910 (4:04:53 PM): It's usually quite usefull.
Torlock13 (4:05:04 PM): He does seem to be helpful
about the blues.
Tps7910 (4:06:23 PM): A blue has come out to a wolf the
last couple of games, so, be cautious if you are one.
Tps7910 (4:06:28 PM): It really screws us over.
Torlock13 signed off at 4:55:51 PM.

**Tasselfoot** · 10-4-2005, 04:00 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

It should be noted.... clearly the wolves would still want to kill the ex-morph, as he is "confirmed" and apart of the alliance....

don't forget the guardian wolfies. Guardian protects us.

Also... interesting post TPS....

[18:37] tps7910: You're going to instantly know if I am a blue or red.
[18:37] TasselFoot: whys that?
[18:38] tps7910: I'm going to make it obvious.

[22:18] TasselFoot: need 3 more for twg
[22:18] tps7910: no flux this time
[22:18] TasselFoot: i really didn't think GB was this bad.
[22:19] tps7910: Got another person
[22:19] tps7910: Torlock.
[22:19] TasselFoot: ugh. no jtwg n00bs.
[22:19] tps7910: He's ok.
[22:19] TasselFoot: fucking n00bs
[22:19] tps7910: Gotta start somewhere.
[22:19] tps7910: Even, gasp, you were a TWG noob.
[22:20] TasselFoot: no, don't believe i was.

TPS just always seems to get himself mixed up in something... whether its something worthwhile, I don't know.

**GuidoHunter** · 10-4-2005, 04:01 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

If the power isn't transferred, that could mean the original morph hit a blue.

In that case, should the guardian guard the morph who now has a blue role? Or should the guardian guard one of the four in the list to protect a permanent blue?

In that case, we would have to weigh a possible temporary blue and alliance-forming tool against a permanent blue. Plus, if there was a single wolf on the list of four, that's a 33% chance of hitting a permanent blue.

EDIT: Damn, too slow. Tass got it first.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

**QreepyBORIS** · 10-4-2005, 04:02 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

aperson: Obviously you do, but the morph doesn't. So I wouldn't rule anyone out like that. Still, the chance of success is extremely high.

I would not blame him for being weird. You were pretty up-front, and it's also his first game.

But he's pretty obviously not a red, because killing another wolf night one wouldn't throw anyone off track; it would just be stupid. So he was either blue or green, and I am not willing to bet on which.

TPS, why did you in your conversation, over and over again, make it seem like you thought he was a blue? And then post about it? Just curious.

**Afrobean** · 10-4-2005, 04:03 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Wow. Tps.

Why even post that? All it does it point finger at you. Because you had this knowlege before the game, people will assume that you were the one who ordered his death, even if there were others that Torlock had talked to in that fashion.

Also, wtf is with the empty space?

Torlock13 (4:03:54 PM): I know.
Tps7910 (4:03:55 PM):
Tps7910 (4:04:27 PM): Well, if you are a blue.

Something you didn't want us to see?

**blahblah18** · 10-4-2005, 04:03 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

also important is chain of events for dete4rmining death.

A morphs into B at night, wolves targeted A for wolfing... who, if anyone is the morph.
"" , wolves targeted B for wolgin... who, if anyone is the morph.

**Tps222** · 10-4-2005, 04:04 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Of course, I would make it that obvious. It was actually an emoticon that didn't get logged, and isn't supported my FFR. It was a

but in a football shape, AIM exclusive.

**GuidoHunter** · 10-4-2005, 04:05 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

That doesn't make a goddamn bit of sense, blah.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

**Tasselfoot** · 10-4-2005, 04:06 PM

RE: TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Night 1)

Originally posted by blah

also important is chain of events for dete4rmining death.

A morphs into B at night, wolves targeted A for wolfing... who, if anyone is the morph.
"" , wolves targeted B for wolgin... who, if anyone is the morph.

Doesn't matter. Think about it... it only matters if the morph saw a blue, and is still the morph. If the morph saw a green, then the person coming out in the thread is the EX-MORPH... so, they don't need to worry about transfering anything. The real morph is still hidden, at least for that day.

TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Humans Win)

TWG XXI: X-Men Lockdown (Humans Win)

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