TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

All PMs have now been sent out.

It occured to me while doing this that with no Night 1 kill, the guardian sending me a name is useless. Therefore, the seer is the only person I need to hear from tonight. The guardian will get double duty on Night 2.

EDIT: Character guide.

1. blahblah18 (mast414)
2. nforcer06164 (nforcer06164)
3. JurseyRider734 (Xtrialan Derrorx)
4. lightdarkness42 (lightdarkness42)
5. chardish (This Is Chardish)
6. Tasselfoot (Tasselfoot)
7. aperson (Phonem Recursive)
8. flypie743 (flypie743)
9. whorlichan (WhorliChan)
10. talisman (stressreliefball)
11. Kefit (Kefit42)
12. mead1 (Fhqwhgads703)
13. Tps222 (Tps7910)
14. Spheroid (spheroiddice)
15. GuidoHunter (ElSoyokaze)
16. Neonatrias (The Last Kitsune)
17. alainbryden (NEIGH006)
18. Matthew4444 (TheDarkNerd4444)

Disclaimer: I have never in my life claimed to be a good writer or a comedian. You guys asked me to do both. Remember that while reading the story you chose.

- Day 1 -

<whorlichan> And so I told Tass
<whorlichan> "You know, it's...pretty small."
<chardish> Hahaha.
<Tasselfoot> Whorli...shut up
<whorlichan> Heck, even mine is bigger
<Tasselfoot> maybe, but my house gets more channels than yours
<GuidoHunter> You really going to take that from your woman?
<lightdarkness> Oh, TVs...haha
<whorlichan> Um, of course.
<blahblah18> What were you thinking, LD?
<lightdarkness> Uh, nothing
<Kilgamayan> What the hell?
<blahblah18> Right.
<Kilgamayan> Okay, who just tried to send me a virus?
<Kefit> o_O
<aperson> Wasn't me.
<Kilgamayan> The details were written really poorly, too
<Kilgamayan> Like a 7-year-old was typing
<talisman> Did you check to see who it was from?
<Kilgamayan> No, I closed the window without thinking.
<alainbryden> No one's tried to send me anything...
<Kilgamayan> Whatever, I'm not tolerating this.
<Kilgamayan> One of you has to go until they've cleaned up their system.
<Kilgamayan> You guys are smart enough to decide who has to go.
<lightdarkness> Hey, this is like the time we all met in Michigan!

---

It is now Day 1. Remember: while there was no kill last night, there were still other happenings, so you don't have absolutely nothing to go on.

You have 60 hours to vote (1:15 AM Monday EST). 10 votes is an instalynch.

ABOUT TIME!

EDIT: lol at story.

Jesus, you really do stake these topics out.

I was waiting a long time, too. I've already found something "suspicious" from someone, but i'll wait until everyone else is on to talk about stuff.

Okay, here are just some initial thoughts .

Wolves are always random in every TWG. This means that the most imbecilic newbie has just as much of a shot of being a wolf as the most seasoned veteran. Therefore, it's usually the smartest thing to do to seer experienced players: if they come up human, integrate them into an alliance; if they come up wolf, have them killed. This has been pretty much the standard method of play since game II.

There is now a new variable in the game that requires us to rethink our strategy: the master is no longer random. If a lesser known, newbieish player happened to wind up with master wolf, it's almost guaranteed that the wolves are going to give it up to a more experienced player (who they mark.) However, if an experienced player gets master wolf due to random chance, it's unlikely that he would give it up to a newbie.

The master wolf is good for absolutely nothing unless he gets seered. This means that out of the two people (original master wolf and mark), the master wolf is GOING to be the one of them who is more likely to be seered. So let's look at all the possible scenarios here:

1) Original master = newbie, mark = experienced, new master = experienced
2) Original master = experienced, mark = experienced, new master = experienced

I think it's a fair assumption that the mark is an experienced player...I don't think the wolves would want to jeopardize their chances by recruiting a lesser known or inexperienced player.

This means two things for us:
1) We should assume that at least one of the wolves - probably the master wolf - is an experienced player.
2) The seer should NOT SEER experienced players.

The second one is a bit trickier to understand. If a person comes back human, that's not a definite reading, but if a person comes back wolf, you know 100% they're a wolf. Since everyone has an equal shot at being a regular plain vanilla wolf, but experienced players are more likely to be master, that means that randomly picking people - especially lesser known players - is probably going to come up with wolves better than only going after experienced players.

In a nutshell, we're far more likely to get false positives seering experienced players. It's probably best to go down the list and think "Who wouldn't the wolves pick to be marked?" Flypie, Mead, Neonatrias, TPS, Matthew, and Spheroid pop out immediately as unlikely masters...but seer, it's up to you to try and figure out who the wolves wouldn't pick, and go after them. Your chances of nabbing a wolf are far, far greater - and you can integrate the players you recruit into the alliance with far greater certainty.

If this is a game that's going to be won by an alliance of newbies, so be it. Of course, I'd still prefer to be around when it's over, of course

chardish, your post worries me a bit. From your logic it sounds like we should be trying to lynch the vets who are likely to have been marked because, well, we don't want a good master wolf around manipulating everyone because they're not getting seered (or are).

Your logic is sound, so I'm not going to take this as a "don't try to seer my good wolf friends or me" ploy (at least yet), but still, the implications are quite interesting.

--Guido

NO. DEFINITELY NOT. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD WE LYNCH VETERANS SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY'RE VETERANS.

Lynchings should be dealt with normally. Veterans do have a higher chance of being the master, but there are many veterans in this game, and only one master. Lynching veterans just because they're veterans is the stupidest thing we could do. I honestly doubt we're going up against a Wolf Dream Team and can rule out all other possibilities.

I'm just saying that the mark/master thing influences who we should be seered. But it should not influence who gets lynched (unless, of course, the seered person comes back wolf.)

Chardish.... did you fricking read my mind? I was going to post the EXACT same thing. Seriously... who told you about that strategy? Because I told blah, and if he told you... I want credit for my theory. If it was all your logic, then grrrrrrrrrr at you sir for taking away my thunder and giving me basically nothing to say.

I 100% agree with what you said, from top to bottom, and was going to say the same thing. At the same time, I'm going to be looking harder at Blah, Chardish, and Alain. Maybe aperson and Kefit also.

Because the only thing I DO know is that I'm god damn pissed off that the wolves didn't pick me to be the master wolf. Frankly, I'm insulted. Me as the MW = Insta wolf win (as I won't be stupid and IM the person who we killed before its posted again, the ONLY reason I was killed off in... twg12?, I think it was). Whatever. This just makes me even more pissed off, and I'll be damned if I don't do all I can to bring these wolves down for disrespecting me.

Oh... one thing Chardish... I would disagree slightly on your seer strategy. The seer shouldn't go for the LEAST likely people, as I thought the wolves could potentially pick one of those as a wolf in an attempt to circumvent the logic presented. My feelings would be to seer the "average" players... Jurs, Talisman, TPS, nForcer... maybe throw Guido in at the high end and Neon in at the low end... I'd say the least likely MW would be from that average group. So, in this ONE instance, I'll be willing to take that back roll, as it is better for the team. The seer should get people he can trust, and frankly... myself, chardish, blah, alain, etc just can't be trusted 100%.

IF THE SEER SAW A POWER PLAYER LAST NIGHT, THEY SHOULD NOT CONTACT THEM UNTIL DAY 2. THAT WAY, IF THEY ARE THE MW THEN A 2ND PLAYER KNOWS WHO THEY ARE AND CAN AVENGE THEM...

Wow, the topic is finally open. As of now, I haven't talked to anyone, but I agree with chardish on that the more experienced players are far more likely to be the MW. I'll post again if I find anything of note.

Also... everyone should join the AIM Chat:

TWGXV

Lucky timing, I was in AP CS.

I'll admit that I originally thought of lynching someone like Tass because he would likely be marked + MW. HOWEVER, After reading this, I realized that maybe the wolves would not mark Tass for just that reason... This added variable doesn't help us at all because for all we know, the wolves thought of this too.

Jay, you have to assume that the wolves went through the exact same thought process that you, chardish, or I went through... and in the end, it all comes down to a "which cup has the poison" debate. It could go on and on. And, IMO, because of that, the real weight needs to not be in the strategy, but in who will best help guarentee a wolf win. And clearly, that is a power player given MW powers. Therefore, that HAS to be the main focus.

But, at the same time, as chardish said, we can't just be lynching me or blah or chardish JUST because we have the aura of being the best. Believe me, I'd like to go and vote Chardish right now, cause frankly, he seems like the wolves best choice to me.... but, at the same time, I don't want to falsely kill a powerful human.

Ouch...Thanks Chardish ;D

I completely agree with the MW & seer thing.