TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

cedo don't be an idiot

please let me know of any vulnerabilities in my reasoning, there's a chance I'm missing something crucial

obviously two people will be opposed to my idea but what about the others?

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

If we end up with 2 Green, 2 Red, regardless if we lynch an anti-town that day, we lose.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Here's the breakdown of possibilities.

o NO LYNCH -> two anti-town die in night -> TOWN WIN
o NO LYNCH -> one anti-town die in night and one green dies -> we are left with three green one red
o NO LYNCH -> two greens die -> two green two reds -> two greens vote "no lynch" -> no lynch wins, the reds target each other in the night -> TOWN WIN

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

If we end up with 2 Green, 2 Red, regardless if we lynch an anti-town that day, we lose.

if we're left with 2 greens, and the two greens vote no lynch, the no lynch vote wins. (the reds aren't going to agree on a target)

If the serial killer targets a green, there's the chance the Mafia will target the SK and the SK will lose. Therefore, the SK's best chances of winning are targeting the MAFIA.

Same goes vice versa.

Now the SK and the mafia can agree to make a truce and kill the greens, but I doubt that would happen / they can't trust each other during the night.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Actually, I want to clear this with YoshL.

If there's 2 town, 1 mafia, and 1 SK, what happens? Can the scenario I've produced actually happen, or is it instalose for town?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Actually, my reasoning ignores the fact that the SK might have 1-shot bulletproof.

But there was only one kill during the night, is it possible the mafia targeted the serial killer?
Then the mafia knows who the serial killer is?
(Though it's likely they both targeted Charu... )
there's a lot of possibilities, I want someone else (iluswirl) to say what they think

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

cedload

And YoshL, does the Serial Killer get a message saying they were targeted by the mafia in the night?

Might be stretching it a bit, but this self-vote is extremely fishy, it could be that cedo knows that the mafia knows who he is?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

or is cedo just being stupid

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

or is cedo just being stupid

Being stupid because Silvuh's trying to call me out on being the roleblocker.

[YoshL]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Actually, I want to clear this with YoshL.

If there's 2 town, 1 mafia, and 1 SK, what happens? Can the scenario I've produced actually happen, or is it instalose for town?

sk and mafia can target eachother, town wins

i do believe that sk gets confirmation that they were shot at.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Come on someone call me stupid or something

[iluswirl]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

o NO LYNCH -> two anti-town die in night -> TOWN WIN
o NO LYNCH -> one anti-town die in night and one green dies -> we are left with three green one red
o NO LYNCH -> two greens die -> two green two reds -> two greens vote "no lynch" -> no lynch wins, the reds target each other in the night -> TOWN WIN

2. seedload
3. zenlyan
7. iluswirliest - Innocent Child
9. dostbankpank
11. mrsplopadlop
12. sealvuh

let's play a game of probability:

We'll assume best case scenario for every situation (the sk and wolf don't go for me as a guaranteed target, but as the same probability as everyone else)

Each of them have 5 targets to choose. There's a 1/25 chance that they both pick the same target, which is good for greens for obvious reasons.

There's a 1/5 chance that one targets the other, making a 1/25 chance that only the wolf dies (assuming sk chose 1 shot bulletproof), or the same chance that both die assuming seer immunity.

20/25 of the kills will be against humans (expanded from 4/5). One of these is a double target, so there's a 19/25 chance that 2 humans die. I don't like those odds.

My math may not be sound though, so yeah.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

First, you're assuming that the selection process is random.

Secondly, if we mislynch, by similar odds that you proposed, we automatically lose.

I was hoping to prevent a mislynch which causes instalose, and at the same time bring about a worst-case scenario which nearly guarantees a win.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Idk how we feel about the odds, but I'm not really comfortable lynching anybody right now unless somebody brings forth some compelling case.

What are your other thoughts?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

That said I still have not provided a contingency with the SK bulletproof. Do you have a strong lynch candidate?